20240812_华创证券_轨交设备行业:国家之重器经济之动脉_26页.pdf
2024 08 12 2024 2023+1600/800 3 128 1 2 3 4-30%-20%-10%0%23/08 23/10 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/082023-08-092024-08-09 300 +1ZBYwPnQnOnMqOpMmRtMrQaQaO8OoMmMpNtPiNnNxPkPnMnRbRqRqONZqQqMMYnOzQ.6.10.20.2、.4、.23 .XfZZzbjlzkOIndC8AxKdQfC4iNkD3XJlIbfvIKRvuXJNYiLSuoCxeogl6GMSJ416.1 2 W in d W in d 2023 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%024681012141618 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0 3 4 W in d 2 0 3 0 2024 5 6 W in d W in d 2024-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00020022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024H1 05101520252005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0510152025303540452010-012010-112011-092012-072013-052014-032015-012015-112016-092017-072018-052019-032020-012020-112021-092022-072023-052024-03:()-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02009-102010-072011-042012-012012-102013-072014-042015-012015-102016-072017-042018-012018-102019-072020-042021-012021-102022-072023-042024-01:7 8 W in d W in d 2021-2023 9 10-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01020304050602009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01:-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01:-10%0%10%20%30%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 0102030405060702012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 12 13 14 65%70%75%80%85%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 010203040500500100015002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050100150200250300350-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001,0001,5002,0002,500 15 16 17 W in d-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 20240809 PE(2023)PE(2024E)PE(2025E)PE(2026E)W in d PE W in d “”TBM 19 20 TBM 2015-2017 21 2 0 2 2 TBM 22 2022 23 2022 TBM 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 2 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01002003004005006007008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/,35.43%,33.14%,15.71%,4.43%,3.71%,2.00%,2.00%,1.43%,2.14%,31.58%,56.14%,3.51%,7.02%,1.75%24 25 05001000150020002500300035004000450050002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 26 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 8.05 30.34 67.29 104.96 178.15 213.30 2024 2 2027 2024 6 1600/800 3 128 27 00.511.522.52007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 :CTCS 04 28 CTCS 29 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 15:30 31 2018-2020 32 2018-2020,13.62%,20.65%,17.04%,14.69%,14.12%,11.07%,8.81%,36.71%,43.06%,9.83%,9.36%,1.04%33 2018-2020 34 2018-2020 35,24.67%,46.74%,24.25%,4.34%,26.47%,28.75%,26.64%,18.14%36 37 38 1 39 40 W in d W in d 41 42 2023 W in d W in d-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0204060801001201402020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%,21.49%,41.92%,34.42%,2.18%2、43 44 W in d W in d 45 46 2023 W in d W in d-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%0501001502002503003504004502020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0510152025303540452020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%,52.02%,20.74%,23.04%,4.02%,0.18%3 47 48 W in d W in d 49 50 2023 W in d W in d-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002502020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%051015202530352020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%,59.22%,40.06%,0.72%4、51 52 W in d W in d 53 54 2023 W in d W in d 1 2 3 0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503003502020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%051015202020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%0%5%10%15%20%25%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1%,63.70%,30.96%,5.34%CFA 5 7 2023 2019 2019 2022 Choice 祎 2023 2023 2023 2023 玙 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522