20240718_五矿证券_电子行业：半导体硅片景气度向好国产厂商前景可期_41页.pdf

Page 1/41 Table_Main Table_Invest 2024.07.18 Table_Author S0950521040001 0755-23375522 w Table_PicQuote 2024/7/17 Wind Table_DocReport(2024/7/5)HarmonyOS NEXT AI(2024/7/3)AI(2024/6/25)AI AI(2024/6/18)Q1 Rubin(2024/6/11)OpenAI AI(2024/5/23)2024Q1(2024/5/8)Pura 70(2024/4/24)(2024/4/3)GTC 2024,Blackw ell(2024/3/20)2023 123 2022 33%2023 123 SOI 2020 AI HPC 5G 2022 2023 2024 2024-2026 2024 2022 200mm 300mm 200mm 71000/300mm 93000/2023 5G AI IoT 2024 SEMI 2025 8 700/12 920/Knometa Research 2024 15 300mm 13 IC 2025 17 2027 300 230 AI AI PC 1 2 3-34%-26%-18%-11%-3%4%2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 300Table_First|Page 2/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 2.8 2.1.8 2.2.9 3.15 3.1.15 3.2.16 3.3.19 4.23 4.1.23 4.2 SUMCO.26 4.3.28 4.4.30 4.5 SK siltron.32 4.6 Soitec.33 4.7 688126.SH.35 4.8 605358.SH.36 5.39 5.1.39 5.2.39 5.2.1.39 5.2.2.39 6.39 WUBYvMqNoNpOtNtQnQqPrQbRcMaQnPqQnPmQiNpPrOkPoPxO8OpPuMMYqNqQNZmPuN Page 3/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 1 IC.5 2.6 3.6 4.7 5/.7 6 2022.8 7.8 8.9 9.10 10.10 11.11 12 200mm 300mm.11 13.11 14 2021.11 15 2020 8.12 16 2020 12.12 17.12 18.13 19 SOI.13 20.14 21.14 22.14 23.14 24.15 25 SOI.15 26.15 27.15 28 SOI.16 29 SOI.16 30 2022.16 31 300mm.17 32 300mm.17 33.17 34/.17 35 2023(:/).18 36 300mm.20 37 2023 300.20 38 200mm.21 39 2023 200mm.21 40 2023-2029 EB/.21 41 DRAM 12.22 42 NAND 12.22 43.22 44 200mm/.23 45 300mm/.23 Page 4/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 46.24 47.24 48.24 49 2022.25 50 2023.25 51.25 52.26 53.27 54.27 55 2023/.27 56.28 57.29 58.29 59.29 60 2023/.30 61.30 62.30 63.31 64.31 65.31 66 2023.32 67.32 68 SK siltron.32 69 SK siltron.33 70 SK siltron.33 71 Soitec.34 72 Soitec.34 73 Soitec.34 74 FY2024 Soitec.35 75 Soitec.35 76.35 77.36 78.36 79.36 80.37 81 2023.37 82.38 83.38 n70wYHnu7abUzYh3khPol0nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5tDkBelBGzuAMRrSK+OAA6Q Page 5/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 1 1.1 CMP CMP 1 IC 19 1 Si Ge 2 GaAs InP GPS 3 SiC GaN ZnO Eg2.3eV Page 6/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 4 Ga2O3 C GaSb InS b Eg=4.9eV 95%99%2 NICT,3 1.2 SEMI 2006-2023 2023 Page 7/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 2022 727 667 8.2%SEMI 2023 415 7%62.2%252 10%37.8%4 SEMI/2023 68.28 5.2%10.2%2023 2022 62.78 55.61 11.4%8.3%2023 43.19 5.7%6.5%2023 2022 129.01 105.75 18%15.9%191.76 14 28.8%2022 129.7 130.85 0.9%/2023 322.61 2022 2.5%2022 45.5%48.4%5/SEMI Page 8/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 2 2.1 2022 33%6 2022,99.9999999%99.999999999%9-11 9 P B 9N 99.9999999%-11N 99.999999999%4N-6N 7 Page 9/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 8,2.2 23mm 25mm 28mm 50mm 2 75mm 3 100mm 4 125mm 5 150mm 6 200mm 8 300mm 12 1960 23mm 2002 300mm 12 775 m Page 10/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 9 F450c 10 1960 0.9 23mm-1960 1 25mm-1963 1.1 28mm-1969 2 50mm 275 m 1972 3 75mm 375 m 1976 4 100mm 525 m 1981 5 120 125&130mm 625 m 1983 6 150mm 675 m 1992 8 200mm 725 m 2002 12 300mm 775 m-18 450mm 925 m ChipsEtc 300mm 200mm 2.25 Silicon Crystal Structure and Growth 1.5cm 1.5cm 300mm Page 11/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 232 200mm 88 300mm 200mm 2.64 11 12 200mm 300mm SEMI Silicon Cry stal Structure and Growth 1.5cm 1.5cm 12 2021 12 68.47%8 24.56%6 6.97%12 12 8 12 300mm 450m 450mm SEMI 450mm 8%450mm 13 14 2021 8 12 SUMCO 2020 8/3 33%/27%/19%2020 12/PC 3 32%/24%/20%Page 12/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 15 2020 8 16 2020 12 12 3-90nm SoC CPU GPU FPGA MCU WiFi/8 90nm-0.25 m M CU LED 6 0.35 m-1.2 m MOSFET IGBT MEMS 17 12 10nm/7nm/5/3nm 16/14nm GPU FGPA 20-22nm 12 28-32nm WiFi/FPGA ASIC 45-65nm DSP WiFi/GPS/NFC 65-90nm MCU 8 90nm-0.13m MCU MCU 0.13m-0.15m MCU LED IC 0.18m-0.25m 6 0.35m-0.5m MOSFET IGBT 0.5m-1.2m MOSFET IGBT MEMS,0.001 m 0.01-0.001 m MOSFET IGB T CPU GPU CIS MCU 80%Page 13/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 SOI 18 19 SOI Czochralsk CZ Float-Zone FZ 85%12 1420 C 95%8 4%Page 14/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 20 21,SO I CVD IC IGBT 22 23 SUMCO SUMCO SOI SO I SOI 4 5 5G RF-SOI 60%Power-SO PD-SOI 20%Page 15/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 24 25 SOI SUMCO SUMCO 3 3.1 2023 SOI 10.9%123 5G Semi Techinsights 2024 2023 2022 2016 2023 5 17 19.4%26 27 SEMI SOI SEMI SOI SOI SEM I Research and Markets SOI 2013 4 2023 16.94 SOI SOI SOI SEMI SO I 2016 0.02 2018 0.11 Page 16/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 28 SOI 29 SOI SEMI Research and Markets SEMI 2022 90%27%1 24%2 17%3 13%4 SK Siltron 13%5 30 2022 Omdia,3.2 2020 AI HPC 5G 2022 2022 2023 2024 2026 12 Page 17/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 31 300mm 32 300mm SUMCO SUMCO 3-4 SEMI SOI 2012 90 2022 146 2023 2023 126 2009 1/2016 0.68/2023 0.98/33 34/SEMI SOI SEMI SOI SEMI 2025 8 700/12 920/2024 12 15/60/600 6-8 2024 9 25/8 12 2024 15/8 5/5/8 Page 18/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 35 2023(:/)12 45/2024 12 15/12 2023 319030.13 310823.89 97.4%8 50/8 SOI 6.5/8 SOI Okmetic 6 60/8 27/6-8 70/12 20/12 10/2024 9 8 25/12 2024 15/6-12 2023 268966.99 150126.31 55.8%102923.95 38.3%13734.95 5.1%8 40/12 20/8 12/8 5/8 10/8 8 MEMS 2023 13503.32 825.83 6.1%Page 19/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 12 50/12/150/1800.21/FRD MOS 2023 34849.53 16143.08 46.3%CRT/TV X 11124.61 31.9%33/399.45 8 5 8 8 6 2023 96040.33 44827.59 46.7%11 19 90%14 38933.33 40.5%MMIC MEMS 2819.48 2.9%3.3 Knometa Research 2024 195 300mm IC CMOS IC 2023 15 13 IC 2025 17 2027 300 230 Page 20/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 36 300mm Knometa Research SEMI 2023 300mm IC 37 2023 300 MPU ST/GF ST/Power IC Knometa Reserach,SEMI 200mm 2023 2026 33%200mm 22%2026 170 14%11%7%2023 200mm 22%16%15%14%14%Page 21/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 38 200mm 39 2023 200mm SEMI,SEMI 300mm 5G AI IoT Ericsson 2023 130EB 2029 563EB loT 2023-2029 CAGR 32%2023-2029 CAGR 21%40 2023-2029 EB/Ericsson 5G Canalys 2024 2024 11.8 3%5G 67%2027 83%12 2027 200/5G DRAM NAND SUMCO 2022-2027 DRAM 18.5%10%DRAM 8.5%DRAM SUMCO 2022-2027 NAND 26.2%20%Page 22/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 NAND 6.2%NAND 41 DRAM 12 42 NAND 12 SUMCO SUMCO Global Data ICE 2023 28.5%2035 76.2%43 GlobalData,ADAS AI MPU GPU 6%ADAS/Page 23/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 200 300 SUMCO 2022-2027 200mm CAGR 7%300mm 2022-2027 CA GR 16%12 2022 40%39%21%2026 35%40%25%200mm 200mm SEMI 2023 2026 200mm 14%13 200mm EPI 2023 2026 35%/MPU/MCU 21%MEMS 16%8%8%200mm 80nm 350nm 80nm 130nm 10%131nm 35nm 2023 2026 18%2022 200m m 300mm 200mm 71000/300mm 93000/2023 2024 PC 2024 2024 200mm 57859/2026 60816/2024 300mm 87733/2026 94559/44 200mm/45 300mm/ABi IDC SUMCO ABi IDC SUMCO S&P Global 4 4.1 1926 1927 1940 1949 1953 1953 1972 Page 24/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 Astech RTV 1973 1995 Shintech,Inc.S.E.H.America S.E.H.Europe Shin-Etsu Silicone Shin-Etsu Malaysia Sdn.Bhd.Shin-Etsu Silicones Europe B.V.1996 Simcoa Operations Pty.Ltd.46,FY2023 24149.4 14%5651.6 26%37.7%23.4%47 48 Page 25/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 PVC PVC 2023 41.84%PVC POVAL 35.22%17.61%5.34%49 2022 50 2023 R&D SOI CIS 51-SOI SOI LED,1 Page 26/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 2 3 4 4.2 SUMCO 1999 Sumitomo Metal Industries Mitsubishi Materials Mitsubishi Materials Silicon Silicon United Manufacturing 300mm 2001 2002 Sumitomo Metal Industries Sitix Division Mitsubishi Materials Silicon 2005 SUMCO CORPORATION 2006 Komatsu Electronic Metals SUMCO TECHXIV)2008 Imari 300mm 2009 2009 2012 2014 2015 2021 300 2023 2024 52,2023 2022 3.44%4259.41 723.65 2022 25.41%16.99%2024 2024Q1 935.14 60.93 18.37%6.52%Page 27/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 53 54 TSMC SK 2023 34.7%19.2%13.8%12.3%10.4%9.6%55 2023/3500 1 2(10nm=1/100,000 mm)3(10)4 100ppt=1/100 CIS(CMOS)150mm 200mm 300mm Page 28/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 56-SUMCO SOI SUMCO Technology MOS SUMCO TECHXIV SUMCO Phoenix PT.SUMCO Indonesia Japan Formosa,SoC 4.3 2011 2012 Covalent Material 2015 2016 5 3.2 T opsil T opsil 12 SunEdison Semiconductor 2020 12 GlobalWafers GmbH Siltronic AG 2022 2 2023 100%11 100%2024 1 GlobalWafers GmbH Siltronic AG Page 29/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 57,2023 706.5 0.5%37.4%1 97.7 28%2024Q1 150.9 39.7 34.3%26.3%2024 58 59 2023 19.7%46.7%12.6%20.4%0.6%75mm-300mm SOI SiC GaN Page 30/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 60 2023/61 2023 2310 6-12 62-GlobalWafers Japan SOI MEMC Electronic Material,SpA MEMC Korea Company MEMC Ipoh Sdn Bhd GlobiTech Incoporated Topsil Globalw afers A/S,4.4 1953 1958 Wacker Chemie 1962 1968 Wacker Chemitronic 1978 Wacker Siltronic Corporation 1994 Wacker Chemitronic Wacker Siltronic 1995 Wacker Siltronic 1996,1997 Wacker Siltronic Singapore Pte 1998 300mm Page 31/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 2004 300mm Siltronic AG 2006 Siltronic Samsung Wafer Pte.Ltd.300mm 2014 Siltronic Silicon Wafer Pte.Ltd.78%2015 IPO 2017 Wacker Chemie 30.8%2021 300mm 2024 63,2023 1513.8 16.2%201.3 53.6%2024Q1 343.5 27.7 2024 2024 64 65 Page 32/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 2023 13%200mm 300mm 2023 65%,24%10%1%T V 3nm 2022 2023 14A 300mm 2023 350 1900 66 2023 67 4.5 SK siltron SK siltron SK 1983 SK siltron 1984 Lucky Materials Inc.Siltec 1990 Siltron Co.Ltd 1996 200mm 2001 300mm 2003 2008 2013 450mm 2019“”2020 SK siltron CSS SiC 2021 GaN 2022 EV 68 SK siltron,Page 33/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 200mm 300mm 2023 20255.9 14%2339.9 38%69 SK siltron 70 SK siltron SK Micron T echnology Intel SK siltron SK SK SK siltron SK 4.6 Soitec 1992 Soitec 1997 Bernin SOI 1999 SOI Bernin I 2002 Bernin 300mm 1 2003 Soitec Picogiga International 2004 Soitec 2006 CEA-Leti TraciT T echnologies 2008 Soitec Pasir Ris SOI 300mm 100 2010 CPV Concentrix Solar 80%2015 LED 2017 SOI Bernin II 2022 Paris Ris Page 34/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 71 Soitec,RF-SOI FY2024 978 10%178 18.2%Soitec RF-SOI FY2025 Soitec SO I 72 Soitec 73 Soitec SOI GaN 125mm-200mm 300mm 150mm 200mm 300mm SOI SiC GaN 2022 2023 RF-SOI FY2024 611 62.5%16%Power-SOI 163 16.7%16%204 20.9%6%Page 35/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 74 FY2024 Soitec 75 Soitec 4.7 688126.SH 2015 2020 300mm 200mm 150mm 125mm 100mm SOI 300mm SOI Towerjazz 2023 606 101 4 SOI 76 Okmetic 2023 30/300mm 15/300mm Page 36/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 45/Okmetic 200mm 50/Okmetic200mm SOI 6.5/77 Okemtic 2014 6 4 1985 5 9 2001 7 25 2016 7 1 2016 7 1 2019 3 29 300mm 200mm SOI 200mm SOI,2023 31.9 11.39%16.46%1.61 5.04%200mm 24.18%351.76 12.62%14.52 300mm 3.48%293.58 6.55%13.79 2024Q1 7.25 9.74%-2.29 305.18%78 79 4.8 605358.SH 2002 2004 2009 6 8 2011 2013 5 MOSFET 2015 2020 2022 6 Page 37/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 80 150mm-300mm 5G Bosch Continental VDA6.3 2023 85 38 47 150mm 14nm 150 75 2023 15.01 55.8%10.29 38.3%1.37 5.1%81 2023 2023 26.90 7.71%0.66 90.44%-1.06 118.96%19.76%Page 38/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18-0.99%2023 15.01 55.8%10.29 38.3%1.37 5.1%2024Q1 6 311.18 6.79 7.41%-0.94 612.2%82 83 1 2 3 Foundry/IDM 4+SK siltron Page 39/41 Table_Page 2024 7 18 5 5.1 95%99%5G AI IoT 2024 5.2 5.2.1 300mm SO I SOI 5.2.2 150mm 200mm 300mm 150mm 6 1 2 3 Page 40/41 Table_Page1 2024 7 18()i ii iii iv v 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%“”“”/99 30 3165 23 9 4 603 200120 518035 100037 Page 41/41 Analyst Certification The research analyst is primarily responsible for the content of this report,in w hole or in part.The analyst has the Securities Investment Advisory Certification granted by the Securities Association of China.Besides,the analyst independently and objectively issues this report holding a diligent attitude.We hereby declare that(1)all the data used herein is gathered from legitimate sources;(2)the research is based on analysts professional understanding,and accurately 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