20240710_华创证券_风电行业深度研究报告：乘风出海黄金十年欧洲海风步入高速增长期国内企业迎出海新篇章_24页.pdf

2024 07 10 23/FID/24-30 GW 23 EPS PE PB 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E Wind 2024 7 10-37%-23%-9%5%23/07 23/09 23/12 24/02 24/04 24/072023-07-102024-07-10 300 /1ZBYxOmRnOpOsMnOnQrOnMbR9RbRpNrRtRqMeRqQrOlOmNxO8OpPyQxNmRtOwMmMoR.6.13.18.21.21 .bXt2wQPVqpBOMmK0ofD46UnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5vPLuVRYHcZkwRoD+xz8aOf.1 GW GWEC/2 GW GWEC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0102030405060702021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E YoY3.32.53.8 3.75.68.49.410.017.222.727.928.2 28.20510152025302021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 23 FID 3 GW 4 FID GW Wind Europe TGS 5 MW 6 2023 GW Vestas 02468101214162020 2021 2022 20230200040006000800010000120002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023SGRE Vestas 7 GW 2027 2030 2032 2035 2040 2045 2050 50 30 40 70 22.2 50 70 12.9 35 5.7 8 18 45 10.9 11 30 7 20 37 3 2 GWEC WindEurope 2027 8 GW 9 CfD GW The Crown Estate CWEA 1584101132800.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0 CfD 1513418500102030405060 AR1-5 AR6 AR7-92030 10 GW 11 12 BSH BSH 8.884.53.54 4 4 40123456789102023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029 2030 13 GW 14 GW RVO 15 GW GWEC 0 1 24-33 21.5GW 4.71.5446.620.80.05.010.015.020.025.0已并网在建2024 招标2025 招标2026-2027 招标合计4 42 200.511.522.533.544.52025 2027 2029 2031 16 GW GWEC 17 GW GWEC 18 MW Goto city 16.8 2026 Noshiro City,Mitane Town and Oga city 478.8 2028 Yurihonjo City 819 2030 Choshi City 390.6 2028 Happo Town and Noshiro City 375 2029 Enoshima Island,Saikai city 420 2029 Oga City,Katagami City and Akita City 315 2028-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%051015202530352021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E YoY0510152025302021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E Murakami City and Tainai City 684 2029 Sea of Japan Offshore Aomori(South)600 Yuza Town 450 2424 Renewable Energy Institute 0 1 GWEC 2025-2030 14GW 19 20 GW BOEM GWEC-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%01234562024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E YoY 2030 15%TYNDP 2020/2022 81/93GW 2025/2030/2040 116/180/204GW 21 2021-2040 GW 22 2021-2040 GW ENTSO-E,ENTSO-E 0 50 100 150 200 2502020202520302040 GW GW 0102030405060702020-2025 2026-2030 2031-2040 23 2026-2030 24 2026-2040 ENTSO-E,ENTSO-E 25 bn Prysmian km GW 26 MW km(/GW East Anglia 3 1400 320kV HVDC 300 21.45 15/Hornsea 3 2850 320kV HVDC 340 39 14 Ijmuiden Ver Beta,Gamma and Nederwiek 2 6000 525kV HVDC-156 26 Ijmuiden Ver Alpha and Nederwiek 1 4000 525kV HVDC 744 140.4 35 NKT Hellenic Cables Power Technology 7.8 27 MW(km)km(/GW Biscay Gulf France-Spain 2000 300 1200 400kV HVDC 109 55 EGL2 Scotland-England 2000 436 872 525kV HVDC 148 74 Prysmian NKT 7.8 2030 28 GWEC ENTSO-E NKT Hellecnic Cables Boskalis 02004006008001000120014002021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 29 bn 30/24 31 NKT Prysmian Nexans 02468101214Prysmian Nexans NKT18H1 18H2 19H1 19H2 20H1 20H2 21H121H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 24Q1012345678910prysmian Nexans NKT2021 2022 2023 32 MW 201611 Barobkundo-Swandip BPDB-33kV 30km 1.2 201701 EnBw Hohe See TenneT 522 155kV 27km 1.9 202008 BINH DAI Mekong 310 35kV 185km 3.0 202012 Skye-Harris SSEN-33kV 38km 0.8 202203-33kV 2.1 202203 Hollandse Kust West Beta TenneT 700 220kV/66kV 130km/9km 5.3 202207 1 100 35kV 202211 Pentland Firth East SSEN-35kV 1 202303 66KV-66kV 202305 Baltica 2 Orsted/PGE 1500 66kV 150km 3.5 202305 Baltica 2(B Orsted/PGE 1500 275kV 158km 12.1 Boskalis Offshore Energy Offshorewind 24-30 CAGR 35.1%33 GWEC 34 offshoreWIND 01002003004005006002021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E0501001502002503003504004505005502024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030SIF EEW-EEW-STEEL CS WindNavantia-Windar HAIZEA SeAH US wind 35 36 Sif CS Wind Sif CS Wind Sif 37 Sif 2021 2022 2023/Sif 7291 8211 10061 6307 6075 5380 985 2135 4681/Sif 1299 1386 1573 316 293 618 983 1093 955/Sif 511 742 782 311 339 485 201 404 297 2168 3632 5933 Sif 25 38 MW m MW 202205 Moray West Ocean Winds 882 35-54 SG 60 14.7 48 2025 202205 Moray West Ocean Winds 882 35-54 SG 60 14.7 30 2025 202205 Revolution wind rsted/Eversource 704 26-45 SG 65 11 65 2025 0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Sif CS Wind 202205 South Fork Wind rsted/Eversource 132 33-41 SG 12 11 12 2024 202210 NOY-Ile DYeu et Noirmoutier EMYN 496 19-36 SG 62 8 62 8.6 2025 202210 Moray West Ocean Winds 882 35-54 SG 60 14.7 12 2025 202211 Dogger Bank B SSE/Equinor/Vargronn 1200 18-63 GE 95 13 41 5.3 2026 202305 Thor RWE 1080 28 SG 72 15 36 13 2027 202305 Nordseecluster A RWE/Northland Power 660 29-36 Vestas 44 15 44 48.5 2027 202305 Nordseecluster B RWE/Northland Power 900 29-36 Vestas 60 15 60 2029 Moray West RWE /2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 玙 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522