20240624_海通证券_食品饮料行业海内外估值对比梳理_21页.pdf

SAC S0850520020001 2024 06 24 70784 2 1 1960s 1966-73 1980-93/40 x/25x 1990s/15-25x 500 2 1900s 500/2022/1.76%/2.87%2022-23 2.69%/1.26%3 90 2000 60 x+2 30 x 2005 20-25x 1990s 2000 28x 08 19x 09 19-25x XVEVxOqNtQpOrPoNqNsNnM6McM7NoMqQnPnRlOrRqOiNsQmR7NnNwOuOnOsRwMrNpP 3 4 90 PE 5 A PE 2010/23 4.7%/6.0%ROE 19.5%/24.2%PE(TTM)12.9/17.4x A 3.5%A 4 5rCknpdFAbxeJnRX6xFoe5DzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4t37RiGzTkmve0C06ogc6M 00.050.10.150.20.250.30.3562/0163/0464/0765/1067/0168/0469/0770/1072/0173/0474/0775/1077/0178/0479/0780/1082/0183/0484/0785/1087/0188/0489/0790/1092/0193/0494/0795/1097/0198/0499/0700/10(ROE 010203040506062/0163/0464/0765/1067/0168/0469/0770/1072/0173/0474/0775/1077/0178/0479/0780/1082/0183/0484/0785/1087/0188/0489/0790/1092/0193/0494/0795/1097/0198/0499/0700/10 500 00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.800.511.522.533.544.5562/0163/0564/0966/0167/0568/0970/0171/0572/0974/0175/0576/0978/0179/0580/0982/0183/0584/0986/0187/0588/0990/0191/0592/0994/0195/0596/0998/0199/0500/09/500/500/500/500-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%1963-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 500 EPS Compustat 5 1962-99 500 1962-99/80s EPS 80s-90s ROE 1966-73/80-93/40 x/25x 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%1993-2000 2000-2010 2010-2022 500 500 CAGR-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%YoY 10152025303540455094/1295/1296/1297/1298/1299/1200/1201/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1213/1214/1215/1216/1217/1218/1219/1220/1221/1222/1223/12 500 00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40100200300400500600700800900100094/1295/1296/1297/1298/1299/1200/1201/1202/1203/1204/1205/1206/1207/1208/1209/1210/1211/1212/1213/1214/1215/1216/1217/1218/1219/1220/1221/1222/1223/12/500()95 Compustat 6 1993-22/500 0.80.911.11.21.31.41.51.6010002000300040005000600070002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100 500 100/500 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%Bloomberg Wind prnewswire 2003 7 2003 500 500 2022 500 4%+2022 7 1 2023 6 30 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%68%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 CR5 EBIT 30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%0200040006000800010000120001900 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 2010 2020/10%15%20%25%30%35%01000020000300004000050000600001962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022revt EBIT Compustat,Bloomberg,Wind,Transformation and Continuity:The U.S.Carbonated Soft Drink Bottling Industry and Antitrust Policy Since 1980&90 8 1952 1980-90s CAGR EBIT 1962-1996 10.8%11.5%1996-2022 3.0%3.8%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.00500001000001500002000002500003000003500001930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 2010 2020,(/)01020304050607080050000100000150000200000250000300000 PE 00.0050.010.0150.020.0250.030.0350.040.04501020304050607062/0164/0466/0768/1071/0173/0475/0777/1080/0182/0484/0786/1089/0191/0493/0795/1098/0100/0402/0704/1007/0109/0411/0713/1016/0118/0420/0722/10/500(0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.6070/0272/0374/0476/0578/0680/0782/0884/0986/1088/1190/1293/0195/0297/0399/0401/0503/0605/0707/0809/0911/1013/1115/1218/0120/0222/03(%)2000 ROE 9 80-90 5 34%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.7071/0273/0174/1276/1178/1080/0982/0884/0786/0688/0590/0492/0394/0296/0197/1299/1101/1003/0905/0807/0709/0611/0513/0415/0317/0219/0120/1222/11 ROE ROE 2000 ROE PE40-60 x PE20-25x Compustat,Bloomberg 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%(0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0204060801001201402000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007()(020406080100120140020000000400000006000000080000000100000000120000000140000000 barrels)(USD/barrel,(60s-70s)+(70s-90s)(60s-90s)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0100002000030000400005000060000700001962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620072009201120132015201720192021 EBIT 1952 Compustat,Bloomberg 1950-90s/2009 10 2009 2017 5.1%1950-90s 1980-90s 90-2008 CAGR EBIT 1962-1990 13.3%14.8%1991-2008 4.3%6.6%2009-2022 3.5%2.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0510152025303540 ROE(1980-90s 500 20-25x 11-2.8-2.6-2.4-2.2-2-1.8-1.6-1.4-1.2-102040608010012014062/0164/0566/0969/0171/0573/0976/0178/0580/0983/0185/0587/0990/0192/0594/0997/0199/0501/0904/0106/0508/0911/0113/0515/0918/0120/0522/09 500(051015202530050000100000150000200000250000 PE(PE 2017/20 Compustat,Bloomberg ROE 2006 PE 20-25x 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.7019731975197619771979198019811983198419851987198819891991199219931995199619971999200020012003200420052007(%)020406080100120-20-1001020304050(%,)(%)(%)PE0102030405060708090-20-1001020304050198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(%,)(%)(%)PE&2005 15x 25-30 x Compustat,Bloomberg&12&PE 20 x 500 500 00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0905010015020025030035019651967196919711973197519771979198119841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620092011201320152017201920212023/500(00.010.020.030.040.050.0602040608010012014016019951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023/500(0102030405060 225 PE 051015202530354045500.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.0014,000.00 PE Bloomberg 13 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CAGR 2007-2015 0.1%0.1%5.7%2015-2023 3.8%1.6%10.8%2010 2011-2019 00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.402000400060008000100001200085/1287/0488/0889/1291/0492/0893/1295/0496/0897/1299/0400/0801/1203/0404/0805/1207/0408/0809/1211/0412/0813/1215/0416/0817/1219/0420/0821/1223/04(/225 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90 Bloomberg factbook_2023 14 70%+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+1974 0.010.0150.020.0250.030.0350.040.0450.050.05505010015020025011/1212/0512/1013/0313/0814/0114/0614/1115/0415/0916/0216/0716/1217/0517/1018/0318/0819/0119/0619/1120/0420/0921/0221/0721/1222/0522/1023/0323/08/500 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Japan Asia-Pacific(excl.Japan)France Europe(excl.France)Americas Other20304050607080-10010203040501992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(%)(%)(%)Bloomberg 15 90 20 2019 30-40 x CAGR 1991-2022 11%18%2015 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000203040506070801992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0246810122021,/Wind A 16 10 A 2021 SW 15 2024 6 21 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.02010 2014 2018 2022 2023(%)-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2010-2014 2014-2018 2018-2023 CAGR 2024 6 21 A A 17 Wind(%,2023)(%,2023)(TTM)21-23 CAGR%21-23 CAGR(%)ROE(2023)11.0-510.7-48.0-16.8-128.9-1.3 7.3 137.8 17.2 11.6-2.4 13.3 6.7 86.9 12.9 4.9-2.7 16.6 6.6 86.8 16.1 15.6 4.6 14.4 6.0 99.4 17.4-6.7-6.9 24.2 B 5.9 65.0 14.3 8.9 4.2 4.9 5.5 70.1 12.5 16.2 10.2 19.3 5.1 99.4 19.2 10.8-2.6 16.0 5.0 66.0 12.9 16.7 13.9 20.7 5.0 81.8 17.0 9.1 3.4 13.9 4.7 73.3 12.9 9.2 13.8 19.5 4.6 101.4 20.9 10.6 7.5 62.5 4.4 44.5 10.2 21.1 60.1 11.5 B 4.4 51.8 10.7 25.3 35.3 21.3 4.3 58.7 14.5 0.6-0.8 17.3 4.2 92.1 22.8-4.0-19.9 6.3 4.1 70.7 20.2 20.1 3.0 11.8 4.0 83.9 22.1 2.9 5.3 9.4 3.7 52.2 13.8 14.1 10.5 17.7 3.6 60.0 15.7 22.0 30.2 32.0 4.8 72.0 15.1 10.7 4.4 16.3/CAGR 17-22/23 ROE 18-22/23 2024 6 23 23 1:2/%12(%,2023)(LYR)CAGR CAGR ROE 3.0 81.1 25.2 4%10%41.7 3.1 71.3 25.3 6%13%57.6 0.0-22.3 0%-8%9.0 3.2-15.3 4%4%33.8 2.5 75.7 18.0 4%-1%13.1 2.1 66.7 27.4 1%5%24.5 2.8 50.1 19.8 7%16%62.2 1.3 20.9 30.5 1%7%7.6 1.1 33.6 31.3 5%10%10.0 1.6 31.2 28.3 3%8%8.4 2.1 19.2 17.6 4%1%9.4 0.0 29.8 16.9 1%-14%10.2 1.4 15.3 21.2 3%1%8.7 1.0 15.2 18.6 2%8%10.0 0.7 38.8 24.5 0%-13%3.5 1.6 33.6 22.3 3%5%10.0 A/23 4.7%/6.0%23 ROE 19.5%/24.2%PE(TTM)12.9/17.4x A 2023/19.2%/13.2%/27.8%1 2 A 3.5%A 2024 6 21 2023 11 Wind EPS EPS-YoY PE(%)(%)2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2023 600519.SH 1471.00 18478.67 59.49 69.78 81.01 93.09 17.3%16.1%14.9%34.57 21.08 18.16 3.40 84.01 000858.SZ 140.31 5446.28 7.78 8.74 9.79 10.96 12.3%12.0%12.0%20.41 14.89 13.30 3.59 60.00 000568.SZ 150.09 2209.31 9.02 10.98 13.22 15.70 21.7%20.4%18.8%25.48 13.67 11.35 3.60 60.01 25.43 29.83 34.67 39.92 17.3%16.2%15.1%26.82 16.55 14.27 3.53 68.01 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 19 SAC S0850520020001 021-23183952 Email 021-23180000 Email 20 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%21