20240627_国盛证券_贵金属行业专题研究:黄金与比特币“美元资产替代”逻辑推升全球通货需求_23页.pdf
|2024 06 27 companiesmarketcap 2024 6 10 1.366 Facebook META 1.68 COINMARKETCAP 2024 6 9 53.9%2017 CME CME 2024 COMEX 2020 1 2 3 S0680521030003 S0680523100002 1 2023-08-12 EPS P E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 000975.SZ 0.51 0.68 0.83 0.94 31.57 23.68 19.40 17.13 600547.SH 0.52 0.87 1.18 1.47 43.95 31.50 23.12 18.55 600988.SH 0.48 0.69 0.89 0.98 34.19 23.78 18.44 16.74 Wind-32%-16%0%16%32%48%64%2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 300 2024 06 27 P.2 CME.4 1.1 1.366.4.6 2.1.6 2.2.8.12 3.1 2024.12 3.2.12 3.3.16.19 4.1.19.22 1 54%.4 2.5 3.6 4 2024.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8 2024-.9 9 2023.9 10 2023.10 11.10 12 2024.11 13 2023 2024.12 14 2024.12 15 2020.13 16 2015-2019.13 17 21.13 18.14 19 2024.14 20 2024.15 21 PCE.15 22.15 23 2023.16 24.17 25.17 26.17 27.18 28.18 WUFUwPnQoNoPoQmPmRqPmN7NaO9PtRrRoMmQlOmMrPjMnPvN7NmMyQuOrNoQMYmRqM 2024 06 27 P.3 29.19 30.20 31.20 2024 06 27 P.4 CME 1.1 1.366 companiesmarketcap 2024 6 10 1.366 69348 Facebook META Platforms 1.68 COINMARKETCAP 2024 6 9 53.9%1 54%COINMARKETCAP 2100 210000 2024 4 20 2012 2016 2020 900 450 6.25 3.125 feSuVdSezsvdIIgubDUrUZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD50OWN9D3Wpre0FtxDalspy 2024 06 27 P.5 2 OKLink 2024 06 27 P.6 2.1 3 Wind 2022 10 TIPS 2022 050010001500200025003000-2-10123408/06 10/06 12/06 14/06 16/06 18/06 20/06 22/06 24/06%COMEX/2024 06 27 P.7 4 2024 Wind 2022 SWIFT 2022 3000 5 Wind 1,800.001,900.002,000.002,100.002,200.002,300.002,400.002,500.003.53.73.94.14.34.54.74.901/01 01/15 01/29 02/12 02/26 03/11 03/25 04/08 04/22 05/06 05/20:5:%:30:%:/-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5 50070090011001300150017001900210023002010/01 2012/01 2014/01 2016/01 2018/01 2020/01 2022/01 2024/01:/:(TIPS):10:%2024 06 27 P.8 2.2 6 Wind 7 2024 2024 COMEX 859095100105110115120100012001400160018002000220024002018/01 2019/01 2020/01 2021/01 2022/01 2023/01:2024 06 27 P.9 2024 1 2 8 2024-Wind 2023 1037 2010 9 2023 8085909510010511011512015001700190021002300250022/01/01 22/05/01 22/09/01 23/01/01 23/05/01 23/09/01 24/01/01:/:1973 3=100 2024 06 27 P.10 2023 2092.6 2022 2088.9 2023 1190 3%10 2023 2022 2024 2024 11 Wind 2334455200022002400260028003000320034003600380040002022/01 2022/04 2022/07 2022/10 2023/01 2023/04 2023/07 2023/10 2024/01 2024/04:10:%2024 06 27 P.11 12 2024 Wind 23002500270029003100330035003700390041002022/01 2022/05 2022/09 2023/01 2023/05 2023/09 2024/01:2024 06 27 P.12 3.1 2024 3 2%2%2024 4 2%13 2023 2024 14 2024 3.2 2020 2020-2021 3.13/2.78 2024 6.6%2023 6.3%2025 6.1%2015-2019 4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%(5.0)(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.024/01 24/03 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/91215 0131 4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%(6.0)(5.0)(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.024/05 24/06 24/7 24/9 24/11 24/120105 0411 2024 06 27 P.13 15 2020 16 2015-2019 Wind Wind 2008-2008-2020 2020 17 21 Wind 1 2008-2020 2008 2016 2 2020 2020 2022 2022 7.6%2009-2019 6.5%2023 10.7%2009-2019 2022 2008 05001000150020002500300035002008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026E 2029E 2032E:02468101214162008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026E 2029E 2032E:GDP:%:GDP:%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.0000/02 02/02 04/02 06/02 08/02 10/02 12/02 14/02 16/02 18/02 20/02 22/02:%:%2024 06 27 P.14 18 Wind 2024 19 2024 Wind 2024 5 2%2024 2023 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%0100020003000400050006000700080002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:%1,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,500338003390034000341003420034300344003450034600347003480001/01 01/15 01/29 02/12 02/26 03/11 03/25 04/08 04/22 05/06 05/20 06/03 06/17:IDC:/2024 06 27 P.15 5 6 600 250 20 2024 Wind PCE 3.7%2.0%3.4%GDP 1.6%3.4%2.4%21 PCE 22 Wind Wind 0500100015002000250030000100200300400500600700800900100022/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 MBS COMEX/10811011211411611812012222/03 22/07 22/11 23/03 23/07 23/11 24/03:PCE:PCE:-3-2-1012345622/03 22/06 22/09 22/12 23/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 24/03:GDP:%:GDP:%2024 06 27 P.16 3.3 2023 2024 2023 4899 2168 298 945 1037 23 2023 Arslanalp,S.,Eichengreen,B.,and Simpson-Bell,C.2023.Gold as International Reserves:A Barbarous Relic No More?IMF WP/23/14,Washington DC:USA 1 2 2024 06 27 P.17 24 25 IMF IMF 2013 10%2022-2023 26 Wind 3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%0500100015002000250020/01 20/05 20/09 21/01 21/05 21/09 22/01 22/05 22/09 23/01 23/05 23/09 24/01%2024 06 27 P.18 27 Wind 2023 160.93 2024 195.26 21.3%28 Wind 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%050010001500200025002007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023%95.48 160.93 195.26 0501001502002503002020-03 2020-09 2021-03 2021-09 2022-03 2022-09 2023-03 2023-09 2024-03:2024 06 27 P.19 4.1 29 0.0011 ppm 2100 CMC MARKET ETF 1 2024 06 27 P.20 30 31 intexsoft 2 CME 2024 06 27 P.21 1 2 3 2024 06 27 P.22 2024 06 27 P.23“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 555 22 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033