20240624_湘财证券_药品行业中期策略：业绩筑底推荐修复与恢复_29页.pdf
业绩筑底，推荐 修 复与 恢 复 相关研究：1.-2024 2023.12.27 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-3.4-8.0-8.3-7.3-9.9-19.1 300 分析师：张德燕 证 书 编 号：S0500521120003 Tel：(8621)50295326 Email：地址：上海市浦东新区 银城 路88 号中国人寿 金融中 心10楼 2024 2023 2024 ROE 1 2-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%300证 券研 究报告 2024 年6 月 24 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 药品 行业 中期 策略 1 2 3 4 5 WUFUzQnQpMqRrPsRrMtMpO6MbP7NtRqQtRnRfQrRtNfQoMmR9PmMzRwMtQpOMYmPsR 1 正文目录 1.3 1.1.3 1.2.10 2.12 2.1.12 2.2.16 3.19 3.1.19 3.2.23 4.25 5.25 图表目录 1.3 2.4 3.4 4 9.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8 10Y%.6 9 2020 10%.6 10 2024 16%.6 11 2024.6 12 2000-PE-TTM.7 13 2000-PB.8 14 2015-2024Q1.9 15 2024.6.20 7.3%.9 16 2023-2024Q1.10 17 2023-2024Q1.10 18 2023-2024Q1.11 19 2023-2024Q1.11 20 2023-2024Q1.11 21 2018-2024Q1.11 22 2023Q2-2024Q1.12 23 2020-2024H1.13 24 2024H1 TOP10.13 25 2023 FDA.14 26.16 2 27 2017-2023.17 28 2019-2023.17 29 2023.18 30 2023-2024Q1.19 31 2023-2024Q1.19 32.19 33 2022Q2-2024Q1.20 34 2022-2024Q1.20 35 2018-2024Q1.20 36 2012-.21 37/).22 38/).22 39/).23 40/).23 41 2020-.24 1 2023-2024.5 Biotech.13 2 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2024-02-17UST10Y.GBM-16.0-1.2-6.7-7.7-9.2-11.1-11.7-13.2-16.7-19.0-20.4-23.1-29.7-32.6 7 PE-TTM 25.6X 5 9.2%PB 2.4X 9.7%12 2000-PE-TTM Wind 2000.1-2024.6.14 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0PE-TTM-1-2+222.1 20.3 23.5 8 13 2000-PB Wind 2000.1-2024.6.14 2024Q1 6%:2020Q2 2022Q3 4.7%2022Q3-2023Q4 2024Q1 6%7.3%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0PB-1-2+22.182.562.57 9 14 2015-2024Q1 15 2024.6.20 7.3%Wind 6.3%14.3%4.7%6.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1 7.3%10 1.2 2023 56%2024 2024 2023 2018-2024Q1 16 2023-2024Q1 17 2023-2024Q1 Wind Wind 2%6%-3%-2%1%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1-28%-12%-11%-56%1%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 11 18 2023-2024Q1 19 2023-2024Q1 Wind Wind 20 2023-2024Q1 21 2018-2024Q1 Wind Wind 2024 7 4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 33.6%33.7%33.3%32.5%33.1%8.6%8.6%8.1%1.4%8.6%23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 17.0%16.8%14.9%14.4%13.7%13.7%12.5%0.9%0.9%1.0%0.7%0.2%0.2%0.2%5.3%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.1%5.4%5.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 12 22 2023Q2-2024Q1 Wind 2 2.1 2023 Biotech 2024 4 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1-5%-3%-9%4%-27%-26%-88%12%6.5%6.9%7.3%6.2%-5%-2%-5%3%-16%-20%-56%12%14.2%13.1%14.9%12.4%6%-5%-4%0%5%1%-74%7%24.1%22.5%23.8%21.5%-8%38%11%-6%-9%30%-27%3%10.1%15.0%10.4%6.0%14%-2%5%0%-19%-12%-1195%-1%4.3%3.8%4.4%3.8%16%10%-2%11%17%6%-57%-3%23.0%23.3%22.8%22.5%19%6%-2%-1%25%-21%-24%-6%14.3%14.9%17.9%14.9%14%0%-3%-1%34%8%-13%-8%23.2%22.6%25.4%20.8%17%8%11%6%26%13%79%-11%30.2%26.7%31.0%29.0%35%12%39%2%151%19%-115%-18%11.2%10.6%12.1%10.6%IVD-60%-60%-55%-11%-73%-79%-40%-20%21.6%21.5%21.5%17.8%CXO-1%-4%-8%-12%-20%-16%-60%-41%2.6%2.6%2.9%3.0%-4%15%12%-11%-32%-8%-74%-56%12.3%12.3%13.7%9.2%13 1 2023-2024.5 Biotech Biotech 2023.12.26 12 2024.1.5/2024.3.25 Nuvation Bio/2024.4.3 Genmab 18 ADC 2024.6.14 2024 1700 23 2020-2024H1 24 2024H1 TOP10 2024.6.14 2024.6.14 PD-1/VEGF AK112-303 HARMONi-2 Keytruda K PD-L1+NSCLC PFS K 2023 230 19%2023 FDA 2022 2023 2022 2023 1737050010001500200025002020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 2023H2 2024H1 Hercules HRS-7535、HRS-9531、HRS-4729 428.76 7.81 RNAi 疗法 295.84 13.14 ARX517 142.02/BioNTech TMALIN ADC 技术平台 129.74 1.78 FG-M701 121.67 10.67Takeda olverembatinib 92.5 7.12Takeda 85.32/YL211 74.31 3.54Avenzo ARTS-021 73.84 2.84Galapagos 51.61 1.92 14 25 2023 FDA 2023 128%CLL SLL 9.5 143%10 FRUZAQLA2023 11 2 1500 2024 FRUZAQLA 7000 101 2023 13.6 149%EGFR-TKI 19.7 149%2019 2022 2023 10.30 11.09 11.16 15 2 2022-2023 YOY*2022 2023 YOY YOY*12.5 21.9 74.5%5.6 12.9 128.5%3.9 9.5 142.6%1.5 1.9 28.9%4.2 5.4 26.9%1.7 2.1 28%35%0.94 1.08 15%22%FRUZAQLA 0.15 0.32 0.44 36%43%0.412 0.461 12%19%41.39 57.28 38.40%7.4 9.19 25%4.76 2.84 2.13 2.67 25%1.45 1.69 16%0.47 0.47-1%0.15 0.19 29%0.05 0.22 316%0.10 7.68 10.76 40%5.7 6.7 18%16.31 5.46 13.6 149%29.22 7.9 19.7 149%26.8 45.54 70%26.64 56.10%11.2 230.20%1.19 5.19 16 2.2 26 CDE Wind 2024 2024 4 2021.7 2022 ADC 20232023 7 8 8 17 50 5 30%1 1000 40%1000 2000 3000 1 2024 2 5 3 2023.8 2024.4 2024.4 2024 2024.4 2024.4 2024.2 2023 70%15%6.7%27 2017-2023 28 2019-2023 44.00%56.70%60.70%50.64%61.71%60.10%61.70%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202326.40%14.95%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%2019 2020 20230%6.7%18 2023 2023 8 4 2022 2023 4 8 2023 29 2023 2023 Y8Y4Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Y11 Y12 Y13 Y14 2023 19 3 3.1 2024 2024Q1 4%12%30 2023-2024Q1 31 2023-2024Q1 Wind Wind 2023 2024 32 Wind 2%-5%-3%-9%4%-10%-5%0%5%240.0260.0280.0300.0320.02023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1-30%-27%-26%-88%12%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%0.020.040.060.080.02023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1 YOY YOY 20 2023 2023 21.3 33 2022Q2-2024Q1 Wind 2020 40.2%2023Q4 28.7%2024Q1 32.6%34 2022-2024Q1 35 2018-2024Q1 Wind Wind 1.5 1.2 10.3 1.8 2.6 1.2 21.3 2.0 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 35.3%33.5%31.2%31.0%32.5%31.3%30.6%28.7%32.6%15.2%14.7%11.2%7.8%10.4%11.2%8.5%1.0%11.2%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%39.3%39.4%40.2%36.2%32.7%30.8%32.6%12.9%13.6%15.4%13.3%12.2%7.8%11.2%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%21 2023 9 2024 2.8%36 2012-Wind 5 2021 3 4 5 2024/5 110-15%-35.3%2024/5 295-2%-7.8%6-APA 2024/5 320 0%-13.5%2024/5 550 0%10.0%7-ACA 2024/5 480 0%-6.3%A(50 IU/g):6 11 87 0%-0.6%E:50%:6 11 70 0%-4.8%B2:80%:6 11 104 0%-13.3%(99%,)6 11 40 3%-30.4%:98%:6 11 57-1%-52.5%3,000.003,500.004,000.004,500.005,000.005,500.006,000.006,500.007,000.00 22 2024/5 650 0%-12%2024/5 625 0%-2%2024/5 1050 0%-22%2024/5 2150-4%-10%2024/5 825 0%0%2024/5 1250 0%-18%2024/5 1900-3%-16%2024/5 2700 0%0%2024/5 1000 0%11%2024/5 580 0%16%2024/5 125 0%-24%2024/4 4755 24%-50%2024/4 64-1%-5%Wind/37/)38/)Wind Wind 0.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.0014,000.0016,000.0018,000.00 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.002001-062002-082003-102004-122006-022007-042008-062009-082010-102011-122013-022014-042015-062016-082017-102018-122020-022021-042022-062023-08:(28012000):23 39/)40/)Wind Wind 3.2 2024 1 24 2023 3 2022 ROE 0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.001,800.002013-062014-012014-082015-032015-102016-052016-122017-072018-022018-092019-042019-112020-062021-012021-082022-032022-102023-052023-12:()0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.002013-062014-012014-082015-032015-102016-052016-122017-072018-022018-092019-042019-112020-062021-012021-082022-032022-102023-052023-12:24 41 2020-22 4 18 6 OTC 9 3-4 22 PB 1.5X,2.4X PB 5 ROE PB PE-TTM PS 211.4 12.6 1.8 1.3 15.4 2.0 141.1 6.1 1.1 1.0 16.7 1.2 39.3(5.0)1.9 0.0(31.0)2.9 258.0 0.3 1.7 0.6 78.8 1.9 77.6 7.4 1.3 2.0 27.2 8.0 397.1 22.6 1.9 4.6 8.8 2.7 72.4 21.0 2.7 6.5 12.3 2.9 72.2 0.1 1.4 0.2 409.9 0.7 114.5 10.0 2.0 2.6 19.7 2.7 25 82.4 11.4 2.1 1.7 20.9 1.3 42.2 7.8 0.9 3.7 11.3 3.6 47.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 73.3 10.2 87.2(1.2)1.1 0.0(113.3)0.9 65.4 7.1 1.8 1.2 24.4 1.0 37.1 7.2 1.4 0.7 18.8 2.3 40.1 3.3 1.1 1.6 40.2 1.4 23.3 10.3 1.7 1.8 17.1 1.0 16.2 0.3 1.2 0.0(323.9)2.9 21.8 0.7 2.8 0.0(362.2)3.3 39.4 5.1 3.3 0.5 51.7 10.7 25.1(0.4)1.2 0.0(254.7)3.0 17.7(9.8)1.3 0.0(12.1)2.2 Wind 4 1 2 5 1 2 26 3 4 5 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明
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