20240624_湘财证券_医疗耗材&线下药店行业2024年中期策略：紧跟政策导向把握“刚需+创新”两条主线_28页.pdf

紧 跟 政策 导 向，把 握“刚 需+创新”两 条 主线 相关研究：1.2024.05.21 2.2024.05.29 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-4-4-14-7-5-22 300 S0500524040001 Tel(8621)50299667 Email 88 10 2024 2024 1/2 3 4 2024-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%300 2024 6 24&2024 1 2 3 0YBYyRqNtQoPoQnOtOpQrQ8O8QbRoMmMnPnRlOmMrPiNtRmR6MpPyQNZnOoPuOtOrO 正文目录 1 2024.1 1.1.1 1.2.2 1.3 2024Q1.3 2.4 2.1.4 2.2.4 2.3.5 2.4.7 3.8 3.1/.8 3.2.12 3.3.14 4.16 5.17 5.1.17 5.2.18 5.3.19 6.22 6.1.22 6.2.22 6.3.22 图表目录 1 2024.1 2%.2 3 2024%.2 4 PB.3 5 2023-2024Q1.3 6 2022 2023.4 7 2017-2030E.9 8 2020.10 9 2020.10 10 2012 2020 1/10.10 11 2024 A.11 12.13 13.13 14 2017-2025E.14 15 2021/.16 16 2019 2021.16 17.17 18.17 19 2023-2024Q1.17 20 2013 2023.18 21 2023.20 22 A.20 23 A.20 24 2023.21 25.21 1 2023.5 2 2023.6 3 2023.7 4.8 5.11 6.13 7.14 8.15 9.19 10 2021.19 j8evirTKMYlvjKPtT+YMOZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4yPRKKBRmy+pTs1wzej+pi 1 1 2024 1.1 2024 2024 6 21 6 21 7084.96 18.25%26 300 20.13 4403.32 35.3%II 6604.36 10.35%9537.54 11.81%6187.02 26%5166.72 14.45%6329.61 14.36%5065.35 15.22%1 2024 wind 2023 2024-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%2 2%Wind 2024 3 2024%Wind 1.2 PE 49.84X PE 56.19X 22.71X PB 2.27X PB 2.57X 1.42X-40-20023-6-21 23-8-21 23-10-21 23-12-21 24-2-21 24-4-21 24-6-21()()300-45.00-40.00-35.00-30.00-25.00-20.00-15.00-10.00-5.000.00 3 4 PB Wind 1.3 2 024 Q1 2024 2024 2023 5 2023-2024Q1 wind 1.56.511.516.5PB PB+1-1)4 2 2.1 2023 2024 6 2022 2023 wind 2.2 DRG 2023 2024-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.0070,000.002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11 5 1 2023/2023.5 2023.7 2023.9 2023.9 DRG/DIP 2023.9 2024.5 2024 2.3 2023 2.3.1 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 6 2023 2024 2 2023/2023.3 2023.4 2023 2023.5 2023-2025 2023.8 2023 2025 2023 2025 2023.11 2023 2030 14 2030 2024.5 2024 2024 52.58 12.7 249 2.3.2 DRG 7 3 2023/2023.3 3298 2023.7 2023 2023.8 2023.9 2023.12 02870 217 DRG/DIP 2.4 2.4.1 8 2.4.2 3 2023 2 024 20 24 3.1/4 PTCA PTA PTCA 9 CTO 3.1.1 2022 3.3 4 1 1300 1139 890 500 487 250 200 4530 2.45 2021 372.04 2017 2021 11.35%2021 2030 15%2030 1,401.79 7 2017-2030E 24.2129.2634.7632.6237.242.4550.0657.2966.9979.9193.98108.75124.34140.180204060801001201401602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 10 3.1.2 2020 48.00%45.86%5 2 8 2020 9 2020 2020 336/10 291/10 10 2012 2020 1/10 2023 10 14 2023 2030 2030 48.00%23.11%9.09%7.27%12.54%/45.86%25.43%8.72%5.65%14.34%/255294296298309312322323336252259262265 2652682752782912502602702802903003103203303403502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11 190.7/10 2024 Q1 11 2024 A wind 3.1.3 5/12 3.1.4 2024 2024 3.2 3.2.1 90 2019 128.5/1,302.3/1/10 2022 2022 2078 15 0.7%3 70%60%80%-95%13 6 82.0%65.3%22.4%19.3%CNKI 2021 I A 2018 2021 3.2.2 X 12 13 2021 65.80 2017 2021 28.36%2025 157.26 14 14 2017-2025E 3.2.3 2024 A 3.3 7 24.2433.2846.6651.5265.880.49100.39125.48157.260501001502002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 15 3.3.1 8 2021 2022 2023 2021-2023 82%84%74%80%90%5 54 2021 10 54 47 2/3 6%2.8 1.1 3.3.2 2021 77 52 2021 80 130 2021 0.54 2.47 0.37 3.94 16 15 2021/MedTech 16 2019 2021 3.3.3 2024 2024 4 0.542.470.373.940.001.002.003.004.005.00 68%72%76%49%54%57%44%47%49%32%28%24%51%46%43%56%53%51%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 17 2022 2023 10.8%2024Q1 10%17 18 wind wind 2023 2024Q1 2023 2024Q1 19 2023-2024Q1 wind 5 5.1 2023 9293 2022 6.51%2019-2023 CAGR 9.9%25.9%25.6%14.5%30.4%10.8%11.4%0%10%20%30%40%0.00500.001,000.001,500.00 yoy23.7%40.9%-1.6%31.2%-3.7%-3.1%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.0020.0040.0060.00 yoy 18 20 2013 2023 2019 15%2023 33%2023 2/3 6226 1.80%2023 2022 4.37%5.2 2017 2018 2021 36143989431646434983520053715577 57166116 62264477143286439662100015922234260930670%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%02000400060008000100002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy 19 9 2019 2020 2021 2022E+62%59%59%57%37%39%39%41%O2O 18.4%19.6%19.6%20.2%+16.2%16.5%16.1%17.3%B2C 1.9%2.9%3.3%3.9%1.3%1.7%1.8%2.0%CMH 2023 1 2023 2 10 2021 2021 4 2021 5 2023 1 2022 2023 2 5.3 5.3.1 20 A 4 21 2023 22 A 23 A wind wind 5.3.2 2023 3.75%CR4 14.92%CR8 22.29%135741407413250102550200040006000800010000120001400016000 15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 21 24 2023 wind 2020 WELCIA COSMOS 11.79%11.42%8.97%CR3 32.18%3 440 25 0.29%3.60%3.63%1.46%3.94%2.79%1.48%0.61%1.65%3.75%76.81%22 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 2023 2024 23 2023 2024 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明