20240704_开源证券_化学纤维行业深度报告：供需格局渐入佳境盈利中枢或将上移_32页.pdf

1/32 2024 07 04 S0790520020002 2021 1 2 3 1 2024 2024 90 2023 CR6 75%2 2021 2023 2024 6 CR3 70%2023 10.20%3 2023 4 2024 39.4 2024 5 2024 2025 1 1-48%-36%-24%-12%0%12%2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 300 2/32 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.9 2.10 2.1.10 2.2.11 2.3.13 3.14 3.1.14 3.1.1.15 3.1.2.16 3.2.18 3.2.1.18 3.2.2.19 4.20 4.1.20 4.2.22 4.3.24 5.25 5.1.26 5.2 2023.27 6.30 7.30 1.5 2.6 3 2017.6 4.6 5 2010.7 6.7 7 2022.7 8.7 9 2015-2022.8 10 2022 410.8 11 2023 2015.8 12 2022.8 13 2023 12.90%.9 14 2024.9 15 2021.10 16 2023.10 WUDWwPqNmPpOqOmPqNoRpO6M8Q8OtRrRtRrNjMqQpQeRpPtO9PqRqOvPnRrOMYqNtP 3/32 17 2024.10 18 2024Q1 13%.10 19.11 20 2023 64%.11 21 2023 CR6 75%.11 22 2016-2023 CAGR 11%.12 23 2021-2023.12 24.13 25 2024Q1.13 26 2024.13 27 2024 4 90%.13 28 2024 1-4+44%.14 29 2023.14 30.14 31 2021 67%.14 32 2023 4.38%.15 33 2024 6 CR3 70%.15 34.16 35 2022-2023.16 36 2023 10%.17 37 2023.17 38 2024.17 39 2023 H2.17 40-.18 41 2015-2022 CAGR 19%.18 42.18 43 2021.19 44 2023 CR2 72%.19 45.20 46 2023.20 47 2024.20 48 6 66.21 49 2023 66.22 50 2023 66.22 51 6.22 52 2019 6.22 53.23 54 2023.23 55 2021-2023.23 56 2023 CR5 46%.23 57 2023 14.24%.24 58 2023Q1-Q3+11.74%.24 59 2022-2026 CAGR 9.15%.25 60 2015-2021.25 61 2024 1-4+22%.25 4/32 62 2023.25 63.26 64 2023 76%.26 65 2019-2023 CAGR 8.49%.27 66 CR5 80%2024 6.27 67 2022.28 68 2024 1-5+23%.28 69 2022.29 1.5 2 2023.12 3 2024 6.15 4.21 5 2024.23 6 2024 2025.27 7.28 8.30 pyGDYXm/Gnl7ptMGM3SnrEnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5s2mlqEUXMAgaTVxKcS3Zxi 5/32 1 1.1 2023 6872 65.61%1 1 2023 82.97%1.40%0.61%0.12%6.29%0.88%65.61%17.36%6.07%0.27%5.79%6/32 2022 90.03%2 2022 64%2020 2023 650.73 15.08%3 2017 4 1.2 MX PX PTA CPL PA MDI MEG 1,4-（BDO PTMEG 66 6 4,654 5,011 5,827 6,025 6,525 6,488 6,872-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%02,0004,0006,0008,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY5,100,64%2,820,36%2022 2022 7/32 2021 2023 2020 2023 2023 2023 10.75%1.45%10.61%2022 2023 2021 2023 2022 2023 2020 2022 2024 2 6.72%2021 4.73pcts 5 2010 6 Wind Wind 7 2022 8 Wind Wind 23 368 271 260 293 307 389 437 394 363 267 683 251 271 271-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01002003004005006007008002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-40%0%40%80%120%160%:0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:8/32 2020 23 2022 340 14.76%12 23 2021 2023 1.77%2015 9 2015-2022 10 2022 410 Wind Wind 11 2023 2015 12 2022 Wind Wind 2022 7 2024 4 228 65768698139178279340272-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003504002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY5464100 102 104109228410234-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0501001502002503003504004502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY8.61%10.68%12.34%11.99%11.99%10.46%15.67%7.21%6.88%2.61%4.08%5.00%4.23%5.59%4.55%9.41%2.52%1.77%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ST 9/32 1.3 2023 2023 14,095 12.90%2018 2023 2024 2024 4 1,788 2014 13 2023 12.90%14 2024 Wind Wind 2021 2022 Wind 2021 2022 35.45%13.44%2021 2,788 7.41%2013 8 2022 2023 10.60%2023-16.50%12-3.10%2024 2024 4 1.30%2024 4 14.80%-40-30-20-10010203040506002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000:(10)(5)051015202505001,0001,5002,0002,500:%10/32 15 2021 16 2023 Wind Wind 17 2024 18 2024Q1 13%Wind Wind 2 2.1 PTA MEG-100-50050100150200250050100150200250300:%0100200300400500600700:(40)(30)(20)(10)01020304005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000:%:%(60)(40)(20)0204060801001201400100200300400500600700:%:%11/32 19 2023 CR6 75%2023 64%2023 1,350 740 633.5 395 355 142 CR6 75%20 2023 64%21 2023 CR6 75%2023 2.2 2021 2021 2021 2023 950 745 78.42%PX PTAPET MEG 85%15%52%33%POYDTYFDY4,821,64%2,679,36%,28%,15%,13%,8%,7%,3%,25%12/32 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 90 2024 3,233 200 6.19%16.16 22 2016-2023 CAGR 11%23 2021-2023 2 2023 2023/2024/2025/1,350/120 60 2025Q1 60 2025 740 40 40 24 8 65 25 2025Q1 40 2025H2 633.5/395/355/142 50 50 2024/700.5/4,316 90 185 2,056 2,246 3,100 3,328 3,555 3,679 3,897 4,316-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY YOY 490,52%140,15%115,12%205,21%13/32 Wind 2024 4 POY FDY DTY 964 1,539 2,439/2024Q1 POY 6,819 6,856/127 174/24 25 2024Q1 Wind Wind 2.3 2022 Wind 2024 3 10 4 30 6.08%39.54%4 70%2021 2019 2023 335 24.97%26 2024 27 2024 4 90%Wind Wind 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000POY-0.34MEG-0.86PTA PTA MEG POY/-800-600-400-200020040060080010001200-PTA)-PTA)0102030405060708090100:%405060708090100110:%14/32 28 2024 1-4+44%29 2023 Wind Wind 3 3.1 2021 67%(Textile Exchange)2021 720 580 2021 387 67%30 31 2021 67%TextileExchange 2,682 2,544 2,787 2,568 2,885 1,101-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01,0002,0003,0004,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024(1-4)YOY YOY 0100200300400500600700,55%T/RC/RN/R,26%,18%,1%T/RC/RN/R 387,67%193,33%15/32 3.1.1 2021-2023 2018 24%2019 2020 2021 37 2024 6 70%32 2023 4.38%33 2024 6 CR3 70%3 2024 6/180 88 78 32 20 25 20 18 12 12 8 7 500 2024 6 1 2018 398492474530 530514492359 365397381388373405-10%0%10%20%30%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY%YOY%,55%T/RC/RN/R,26%,18%,1%T/RC/RN/R 16/32 2020 8 8,100/2020 2021 2022 2022 2023 39 734 79 46 2024 1 8 10,500 8 8.40 2024 6 2024 2025 1-2 34 35 2022-2023 Wind Wind 3.1.2 2023 2023 395 10.20%2024 2024 6 7 9.86 2019 2024 6 1 7 79.75%2020 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000/-1.03-0.6/1,168 424 502 1,484 39 734 3,353 483(1,796)491(79)(46)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%(3,000)(2,000)(1,000)01,0002,0003,0004,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 17/32 36 2023 10%37 2023 Wind 38 2024 39 2023 H2-2009 2022 7%16%Wind 2024 6 1 16,408/-3,433/2016 2022 1,153.8 127.6 2015-2022 CAGR 19%2022 1.3 17.9 10.4 8.1 50%349347384360378359395-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%3203303403503603703803904002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000:/30%40%50%60%70%80%90%(100)(50)05010015020025030035005101520253035(%)18/32 40-41 2015-2022 CAGR 19%Wind 3.2 42 3.2.1 2022 28 75%-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000-339.91153.802004006008001,0001,2001,4002015 2022 CAGR=19%19/32 2023 4 23.5 2024 1 2024 2025 6.43 1 6.43 43 2021 44 2023 CR2 72%3.2.2 2023 2024 2023 841%336%225%2023 11.73 51%2023 144.7 2027 241.8 2023-2027 CAGR 14%2020 2022 2023 2024 2024 1-5 3.57 8%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05101520252019 2020 2021 2022 2023 9,38%8,34%5,21%1.5,7%20/32 45 46 2023 2021 Wind 2021 6 10 37,000/2024 6 10 44,500/2024 6 15 21 83.08%47 2024 Wind 4 4.1(Polyamide PA)(-NHCO-)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-5-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02468101214162019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY)30,00032,00034,00036,00038,00040,00042,00044,00046,00048,00050,000:/21/32-2023 432 6.29%4 3-4 1-2 3 10 20 50 4.5%0.4%35%25%48 6 66 6 66 66 66 66 2022 CR4 88.65%PA66 66 66 6 6 ZAKER 6 66 66 6 22/32 2023 6 304 66 25 10%6 6 49 2023 66 50 2023 66 6 2019 6 2024 6 6 668 4.05%2024 5 6 220 20%6 51 6 52 2019 6 4.2 2019 6 2020 2024 6 11-100 4642523125201970%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050602021 2022 2023 2024 1-5 304,93%25,7%6 66,70%,17%,8%,5%485 527 570 608 642 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01002003004005006007002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY YOY 23/32 53 54 2023 Wind 2021 2023 2023 68.0 37.3 34.5 32.0 24 54%42 10 34 2024 39.4 2025 55 2021-2023 56 2023 CR5 46%5 2024 20 2024 10 2024 6 2024 3.4 2024(1,000)(500)05001,0001,5002,0002,500-(/)010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,000110,000:DTY:FDY:POY:DTY:POY:FDY150D:20D:40D295313335344349221230256242259-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0501001502002503003504002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY YOY,19%,10%,10%,9%,7%,5%,3%,3%,35%24/32 10 2025 49.4 4.3 Euromonitor 2023 3,858 14.24%2028 5,593 2023-2028 CAGR 7.71%57 2023 14.24%58 2023Q1-Q3+11.74%Euromonitor 6 6 0.244-0.337W/(m)0.084W/(m)0.071-0.073W/(m)2022 675 2022-2026 CAGR 9.15%Wind 2021/3.35 261.64 2015-2021 21.47%2022 2024 4 14.78%2023 10%1,347 1,483 1,669 1,904 2,215 2,691 3,199 3,123 3,549 3,377 3,858 5,593-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2028E YOY96115133158150126-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%03060901201501802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 YOY 25/32 50%59 2022-2026 CAGR 9.15%60 2015-2021 Wind 61 2024 1-4+22%62 2023 6 2024 2024 5 5356116757428138859580%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02004006008001,0001,2002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E YOY010203040506005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500:/(213 222 241 224 240 86-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-4 YOY 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%26/32 400%700%3%PTMEG MDI PTMEG BDO MDI 2023 PTMEG MDI 61.53%59.97%2024 1-5 PTMEG MDI 9.59%9.17%1958 1989 2001 2023 163.5 123.95 76%63 64 2023 76%5.1 2021 2021 2021-2023 CAGR 10.53%2024 6 32.5 22.5 22.04 22 10 CR5 80%2022 2025 2024 2025 28.1 30.6 30%30%20%15%5%123.95,76%39.55,24%27/32 2024 2025 2024 2025 CR6 83%65 2019-2023 CAGR 8.49%66 CR5 80%2024 6 6 2024 2025 2024 6 2024 2025 26.50 10 10 6.00 32.50 10 10 22.50 22.04 7 22.00 10 10 8.50 1 1.50 10.00 1 4.00 3 44.5 3.6 3.6 135.54 153.14 183.74 CR6 83%83%84%5.2 2023 2023 9093102112124135657683798942-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801001201401602019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-5 YOY YOY,24.0%,16.6%,16.3%,16.2%,7.4%,3.0%,16.6%28/32 2023 86.84 17.08%2024 2022 3%-5%10%-25%1 2 3 50,000/0.5kg 10%2.5 7 2%16%5%20%T 8%23%10%27%15%28%67 2022 68 2024 1-5+23%2015 2023 5 2015 2016,2016 6 40D 28,500/2013 2017,2018 2020 0246810121416 617278748742-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-5 YOY 29/32 2020 2021 2021 23%2022 2023 2022 2021 2023 2023 2023 2015 2024 2025 69 2022 Wind 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000 40D-0.77 PTMEG-0.18 MDI 40D PTMEG MDI/2021 30/32 6 8/EPS/PE 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 600346.SH 973 13.82 0.98 1.33 1.60 1.93 13.4 10.4 8.6 7.2 603225.SH 225 14.76 0.71 1.34 1.66 1.78 20.0 11.0 8.9 8.3 002493.SZ 971 9.59 0.11 0.61 1.00-90.5 15.7 9.6-601233.SH 369 15.30 0.33 1.52 1.93 2.26 45.8 10.1 7.9 6.8 600409.SH 110 5.32 0.27 0.49 0.57-20.0 10.9 9.3-002064.SZ 348 7.01 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.77 13.4 12.5 11.1 9.1 002254.SZ 75 8.73 0.39 0.51 0.67 0.80 38.8 17.3 13.0 10.9 000301.SZ 525 7.94 0.11 0.56 0.78 1.00 88.5 14.2 10.1 8.0 000703.SZ 261 7.12 0.12 0.30 0.42 0.53 56.6 24.1 17.1 13.5 000949.SZ 60 3.54-0.03 0.24 0.34 0.43-112.4 14.6 10.4 8.2 603055.SH 88 9.84 0.50 0.70 0.87 1.05 23.9 14.0 11.3 9.4 600810.SH 66 6.29 0.12 0.39 0.64 0.73 63.0 15.9 9.9 8.6 Wind 1 Wind 2 2024 7 3 7 1 2 3 1 31/32 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 500 1 2024 6.41%32/32 1788 1 3 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 9 100044 1 B 5 710065