20240703_海通证券_环保行业深度报告：欧盟碳关税临近重塑国际贸易竞争力_25页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2024 07 03 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-25.60%-18.96%-12.32%-5.69%0.95%7.59%2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 2024/3 Table_ReportInfo 30 2024.07.01 2024.06.17 2024.06.12 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(021)23185629 Email:S0850517070007:Tel:(021)23188562 Email:Table_Summary CBAM CBAM 2026 2023 10 1 2025 CBAM 2026 CBAM 2030 2023 5 16 CBAM 2030 CBAM 2022 151 45 3.3 1146 3134 2022 6260 CBAM 3.2%CBAM CBAM 6%CBAM 378/2022 6558/6%67.25 CBAM 476.28/CBAM 2986/2023 39432.97/1.2%/7.57%26 2020 137 2024 1 2 2 1.7 1.1 CBAM.7 1.2.1.8 1.2.2 2026.10 1.2.3 1-5.10 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.12 2.2.1.12 2.2.2&.13 2.2.3 26 CBAM.14 3.:CBAM 14 3.1.14 3.2:.15 3.3 6%.16 3.3.1 6%.16 3.3.2 17 3.3.3 67.25.18 3.4.18 3.4.1.19 3.4.2 20 3.4.3 26.21 4.22 4.1.22 4.2.23 4.2.1.23 4.2.2.24 YWDWwPnQpMnMrPsRmRsNnMaQcM7NpNoOnPtPeRqQsNkPpPqMaQpPzRxNsPmQvPqNqQ 3 5.24 4 1 2018.7 2.8 3.10 4.11 5.11 6 CBAM.12 7 CBAM.13 8 CBAM&.13 9 2023.14 10 2026-2034.14 11 2012-2022.14 12 2012 2022.14 13 2000-2022.15 14 2002-2021%.15 15 2022 12 2023 11 27.15 16 2012-2023 27.15 17 2012-2023 27.16 18 2011-2023/.17 19 2011-2023/.17 20 2011-2023.17 21 2018-2023.18 22.18 23 A00.20 24 2022%.20 25 2011-2022.20 26.21 27 2012-2023.21 28 2012-2023%.21 29 2020 CO2.21 30.22 l3G/z2wKRp0StQQKMlwcYUnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5sXrmbqA18OxIAlF3ggQ9+F 5 31.22 32.24 6 1.8 2.13 3.13 4.16 5.19 6+.19 7 CCA.22 7 1.Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM 1.1 CBAM CBAM CBAM EU-ETS 1 2018/CO2 Wind 23 WTO/FTA 2019 CBAM 2020 3 CBAM 10 2021 7 14 Fitfor55 CBAM 2021 3 CBAM 2022 12 2023 8 Table_PicPe 2 1.2 26 30 1.2.1 2023 5 16 CBAM Official Journal of the European Union CBAM 6 2030 1 CN 2507 00 80 Other kaolinic clays 2523 10 00 Cement clinkers 2523 21 00 White Portland cement,whether or not artificially coloured 2523 29 00 Other Portland cement 2523 90 00 Other hydraulic cements 2523 30 00 Cement;aluminous 2804 10 000 Hydrogen 2716 00 00 Electrical energy 28080000 Nitric acid;sulphonitric acids 2808 00 00 Urea,whether or not in aqueous solution 3102 10 Ammonia,anhydrous or in aqueous solution 2814 Nitrates of potassium 2834 21 00 Mineral or chemical fertilisers,nitrogenous 3102 10 Mineral or chemical fertilisers containing two or three of the fertilising elements nitrogen,phosphorus and potassium;other fertilisers;goods of this chapter in tablets or similar forms or in packages of a gross weight not exceeding 10 kg 3105 Except Urea Except 3102 10 Except Mineral or chemical fertilisers containing the two fertilising elements phosphorus and potassium 7601 Unwrought aluminium 7603 Aluminium powders and flakes 7604 Aluminium bars,rods and profiles 7605 Aluminium wire 7606 0.2 Aluminium plates,sheets and strip,of a thickness exceeding 0,2 mm 9 7607 0.2 Aluminium foil(whether or not printed or backed with paper,paper-board,plastics or similar backing materials)of a thickness(excluding any backing)not exceeding 0,2 mm 7608 Aluminium tubes and pipes 7609 00 00 Aluminium tube or pipe fittings(for example,couplings,elbows,sleeves)7610 9406 Aluminium;structures(excluding prefabricated buildings of heading no.9406)and parts(e.g.bridges and sections,towers,lattice masts,etc)plates,rods,profiles and tubes for structures 7611 300 Aluminium;reservoirs,tanks,vats and the like for material(not compressed or liquefied gas)of capacity over 300l,whether or not lined,heat-insulated,not fitted with mechanical,thermal equipment 7612 300 Aluminium casks,drums,cans,boxes etc(including rigid,collapsible tubular containers),for materials other than compressed,liquefied gas,300l capacity or less,lined,heat-insulated or not 7613 Aluminium;containers for compressed or liquefied gas 7614 Aluminium;standed wire,cables,plaited bands and the like,(not electrically insulated)7616 Aluminium;articles n.e.c.in chapter 76 72 Iron and steel Except:7202 2 Ferro-silicon 7202 3 Ferro-alloys;ferro-silico-managanese 7202 50 00 Ferro-alloys;ferro-silico-chromium 7202 70 00 Ferro-alloys;ferro-molybdenum 7202 80 00 Ferro-alloys;ferro-tungsten and ferro-silico-tungsten 7202 91 00 Ferro-alloys;ferro-titanium and ferro-silico-titanium 7202 92 00 Ferro-alloys;ferro-vanadium 7202 93 00 Ferro-alloys;ferro-niobium 7202 99 Ferro-alloys;n.e.c.in heading no.7202 7202 99 10 Ferro-phosphorus 7202 99 30 Ferro-silico-magnesium 7202 99 80 Ferro-alloys n.e.c in heading no.7202 99 7204 Ferrous waste and scrap;remelting scrap ingots and steel 2601 12 00 Iron ores and concentrates;agglomerated(excluding roasted iron pyrites)7301 Sheet piling of iron or steel,whether or not drilled,punched or made from assembled elements;welded angles,shapes and sections,of iron or steel 7302 Railway or tramway track construction material of iron or steel,the following:rails,check-rails and rack rails,switch blades,crossing frogs,point rods and other crossing pieces,sleepers(cross-ties),fish-plates,chairs,chair wedges,sole plates(base plates),rail clips,bedplates,ties and other material specialised for jointing or fixing rails 7303 00 Tubes,pipes and hollow profiles,of cast iron 7304 Tubes,pipes and hollow profiles,seamless,of iron(other than cast iron)or steel 7305 4064 Other tubes and pipes(for example,welded,riveted or similarly closed),having circular cross-sections,the external diameter of which exceeds 406,4 mm,of iron or steel 7306 縫 Other tubes,pipes and hollow profiles(for example,open seam or welded,riveted or similarly closed),of iron or steel 7307 Tube or pipe fittings(for example,couplings,elbows,sleeves),of iron or steel 7308 9406 Structures(excluding prefabricated buildings of heading 9406)and parts of structures(for example,bridges and bridge-sections,lock-gates,towers,lattice masts,roofs,roofing frameworks,doors and windows and their frames and thresholds for doors,shutters,balustrades,pillars and columns),of iron or steel;plates,rods,angles,shapes,sections,tubes and the like,prepared for use in structures,of iron or steel 7309 300 Reservoirs,tanks,vats and similar containers for any material(other than compressed or liquefied gas),of iron or steel,of a capacity exceeding 300 l,whether or not lined or heat-insulated,but not fitted with mechanical or thermal equipment 7310 300 Tanks,casks,drums,cans,boxes and similar containers,for any material(other than compressed or liquefied gas),of iron or steel,of a capacity not exceeding 300 l,whether or not lined or heat-insulated,but not fitted with mechanical or thermal 10 equipment 7311 Containers for compressed or liquefied gas,of iron or steel 7318 Screws,bolys,nuts,coach screws,screw hooks,rivets,cotters,cotter-pins,washers(including spring washers)and similar articles,of iron or steel 7326 Iron or steel;articles n.e.c.in chapter 73 1.2.2 2026 2026 2023 10 1 2025 CBAM 2026 CBAM CBAM 2026 2034 2026 2034 3 1.2.3 1-5 CBAM 1-5 CBAM“”CBAM 1-5 5 31 CBAM CBAM(CBAM)CBAM 1 CBAM CBAM CBAM 10%CBAM 7 31 CBAM CBAM CBAM 3 11 4 2.CBAM=-5 2.1 CBAM installation productionprocess 12 6 CBAM 2.2(CO2)=(CO2/)x()CBAM 10%5%2.2.1 CBAM specific embedded emissions attributed emissions precursor materials simple goods CBAM complex goods 13 7 CBAM 8 CBAM&CBAM/tCO2e/t=/+/2.2.2&IPCC IPCC CBAM 2 IPCC PPA 3 IEA IEA CBAM CBAM PPA CBAM PPA 14 2.2.3 26 CBAM 26 CBAM 2026 97.5%2034 0%2029-2030 CBAM ETS ETS 9 2023 10 2026-2034 3.:CBAM 3.1 2012-2022 CAGR 5%2012-2022 CAGR 10%2021 22.3%11 1999-2022 Statista 12 2012-2022 Statista 15 13 2012-2022 0100000020000003000000400000050000002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Statista 14 2002-2021%Statista 3.2:27 2022 12 2023 11 32.01%22.40%22.29%2023 2023 48.02%7.80%7.79%7.79%6.04%15 2022 12 2023 11 27 16 2012-2023 27 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023;Wind CBAM 2022 151 45 3.3 1146 3134 5 199.7 2022 6260 CBAM 3.2%CBAM CBAM 16 17 2012-2023 27 CBAM%3.3 6%2.1 CBAM=-CBAM 378/2022 6558/6%/tCO e 4 tCO e 2%0 50 98 tCO e 2 1 0.05/tCO e 468/tCO e 90 CBAM 756 378 18.9 2023/6558%11.53 5.76 0.29 Wind 2023 1 7 3.3.1 6%6%70%2012-2023 17-18 3000 1.5 17 18 2012-2023/-400-20002004006008001000120014002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 19 2012-2023/-400-2000200400600800100012002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20 2012-2023 050010001500200025003000350040002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CBAM CBAM 378/73%3.3.2 IIGF 1 10%40%IIGF 70%2()2t-2.2tCO e,1.9tCO e 2023 552.02/697/5 392/1 7 2745/18 21 2018-2023-2000200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/3.3.3 67.25 2022 4 8.70 67.25 4 18 7.73 3.4 2018 95%3.50%62.7%CO2 5.9%(CO2)8.5%8.5%16.1%3.4%2023 27 6.6 63%22 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%0200004000060000800001000001200002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%Wind 19 CBAM 2.1 CBAM=-CBAM CBAM 476.28/CBAM 2986/2023 39432.97/1.2%/7.57%5 tCO e 2.52%0%50%98%tCO e 2.52 1.26 0.06/tCO e 468/tCO e 90 CBAM 952.56 476.28 23.81 2023/39432.97%2.42%1.21%0.06%Trendeconomy 2023 1 7 6+tCO e 15.8%0%50%98%tCO e 15.80 7.90 0.40/tCO e 468/tCO e 90 CBAM 5972.40 2986.20 149.31 2023/39432.97%15.15%7.57%0.38%Trendeconomy 2023 1 7 3.4.1 IAI LCI 10.4 16.6 1.9 12.8.6.1 2.7 9.5 3.8 9.2 A00 A00 3 2020 2021 A00 20 23 A00-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,0002020/07 2020/12 2021/05 2021/10 2022/03 2022/08 2023/01 2023/06 2023/11/A00/Wind 24 2022%Wind CBAM 476/1639/2986/25 2011-2022-1000-50005001000150020002500300035002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(-)/Wind Trendeconomy 3.4.2 11.15%9.18%4.83%1 7 2022 42061/2022 35175/2022 22015/21 26%00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.912012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Trendeconomy 27 2012-2023 010002000300040005000600070002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国（美元/吨）俄罗斯（美元/吨）土耳其（美元/吨）Trendeconomy 10 Wind 2023 59%2020 28 2012-2023%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:():Wind 29 2020 CO2 024681012141618 3.4.3 26+2022 6 3.41 26 4 18 7.73 22 4.EU-ETS 40%2020 137 30 2023 31 2023 4.1 WTO/FTA 2022 6 CCA CBAM CCA CCA 118 CCA 2024 12 31 55/5%2025 2026 CCA 22 2026 12 31 500 CCA 2029 2030 100 transparentmarketeconomy 7 CCA NAICS 211120 Petroleumextraction 211130 Naturalgasextraction 212114 Surfacecoalmining 212115 Undergroundcoalmining 322110 Pulpmills 322120 Papermills 23 322130 Paperboardmills 324110 Petroleumrefineries 324121 Asphaltpavingmixtureandblockingmanufacturing 324122 Asphaltshingleandcoatingmaterialsmanufacturing 324199 Allotherpetroleumandcoalproductsmanufacturing 325199 Petrochemicalmanufacturing 325110 Industrialgasmanufacturing 325120 Ethylalcoholmanufacturing 325199 Otherbasicorganicchemicalmanufacturing 325311 Nitrogenousfertilizermanufacturing 327211 Glass 327212 327213 327310 Cement 327410 Limeandgypsumproductmanufacturing 327420 331110 Ironandsteel 331313 Aluminum 331314 4.2 4.2.1 2021 2021 4 22 2030 2005 40-45%2021 7 12 2030 2050 2020 12 A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy 2022 50/2021 7 2022 15 2030 170/2020(BCA)2020 2021 24 32 CPA 4.2.2 2020 10 2050 2021 4 2030 2013 46%1 2 5.25 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%