20240610_东方证券_计算机行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：AI技术变革来临基础软硬件具有长期投资价值_19页.pdf

|24 A 5 29 9 24 5 29 20.7%2 5 5 29 15.7%24 24 19 23 CPU 4 12 AI API AI AI AI Scaling law GPT-4 1.8 Scaling law AI AI FY2025Q1 AI H20 AI(688111)(002230)-U(688031)(688041)-U(688256)(000977)(603019)(600498)(000938)(301236)(002152)A(000032)(600602)/2024 06 10 021-63325888*6106 S0860514050004 021-63325888*3144 S0860521050002 AI AI 2.4 1.1.4 1.2.5 IT.7 Scaling law.9 3.1.9 3.2 H20.10 3.3 BIS AI.11 3.3.1 昇 910B 昇 12 3.3.2 13 3.3.3 370 14 3.4 AI.14.15.17.17 0YBYzQqNoNoPtNpMmRoRrQ6McM7NoMqQmOnRkPnNqOiNmNtQ6MrRvMMYpPmMNZtOsQ AI 3 1 24/1/1 24/5/29.4 2 24/2/5 24/5/29.4 3 PE-Band.6 4 PE-Band.6 5 IT GDP.7 6 IT.7 7 WPS Office.7 8.7 9 WPS AI.8 10 WPS 365.8 11 Scaling law.9 12 FY2020-FY2025Q1.10 13 FY2020-FY2025Q1.10 14 AI.10 15 FY2025Q1 CEO.11 16 2023 10 H800 A800.11 17 昇.12 18 DCU GPGPU.13 19.13 20 370.14 21.15 22 2023 2 27.15 23 昇 AI.16 24“”.16 1 2019/1/1 2024.5.29.5 2.8 3 2024 2025 1.12 AI 4 1.1 2024 A 2024 2 5 A 2700 31.5%31 A 9 24 5 29 20.7%1 24/1/1 24/5/29 wind 2024 2 5 5 29 31 15.7%16 300 15.1%12.9%24 24 2 24/2/5 24/5/29 wind-20.7%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%15.7%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%O7ulOnjlBpDGOH+j5cQem5DzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD6hFhC/XfC1IC5h5rFiqKSy AI 5 1.2 2019 2024 5 29 5 23 19 100%1 2019/1/1 2024.5.29 19-23 19-23 IT 002410.SZ 197 16.7%-16.2%59.1%300935.SZ 13-1.4%191.0%300559.SZ 42 0.9%-10.6%35.2%IT 600570.SH 380 17.1%0.1%22.0%300033.SZ 629 19.6%11.8%55.0%300803.SZ 177 15.6%-11.9%7.6%300496.SZ 236 30.2%18.3%22.7%301221.SZ 33 20.3%72.3%688208.SH 115 28.4%-14.0%42.3%IT 301236.SZ 362 13.5%-6.9%20.0%000034.SZ 193 8.3%13.7%26.0%600718.SH 95 6.0%18.7%19.1%IT 002368.SZ 131 6.8%2.8%31.1%300075.SZ 93-0.9%0.7%14.2%301153.SZ 99 32.4%43.2%73.5%688327.SH 113-6.1%0.0%002230.SZ 954 18.2%-5.4%29.6%300229.SZ 114-5.2%-30.6%19.4%002439.SZ 221 9.9%1.9%15.5%300454.SZ 229 13.7%-28.5%9.6%688561.SH 179 19.5%3.4%0.0%000977.SZ 539 6.3%17.7%11.4%603019.SH 594 10.8%32.6%21.2%688041.SH 1616 99.5%100.7%16.9%AI 6 IT 300253.SZ 132 13.5%-2.6%13.0%300451.SZ 61 2.2%-41.5%14.1%002777.SZ 68 7.3%1.0%32.5%688111.SH 1204 30.3%34.7%31.1%688031.SH 52 29.5%0.0%wind IT 3 PE-Band 4 PE-Band wind wind CPU IT AI WPS AI 5 31 AI AI 4 12 020406080100120 193.960 x 153.159x112.358x 71.558x 30.757x020406080100 95.527x 77.081x58.636x 40.191x 21.745x AI 7 IT IT Gartner IT 2019-2023 7.0%IT GDP 2.9%IT 2019-2023 24.0%Gartner 2024 IT 6.2%IT 16.7%IT 5 IT GDP 6 IT Gartner Gartner WPS Office 2023 5.98 3549 18.43%C WPS 365 7 WPS Office 8 2799936707389792.84%2.91%2.70%2.75%2.80%2.85%2.90%2.95%3.00%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002019 2023 2024EIT GDP 10402459287005001000150020002500300035002019 2023 2024E AI 8 wind AI Office 23 3 Microsoft 365 Copilot AI 23 11 WPS AI 24 4 WPS AI WPS 365 AI AI ARPU AI 9 WPS AI 10 WPS 365 WPS WPS AI API DeepSeek token 1 AI AI AI 2/1.90%2.92%4.11%4.66%5.23%5.93%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0100002000030000400005000060000700002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 27.5%25.4%38.8%31.7%28.8%28.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 AI 9 DeepSeek-V2 1 2 Pro 32k 0.8/Pro 128k 5/GLM-3-Turbo 1 1 Qwen-Long 0.5 2 Erine Speed Erine Lite Scaling law 3.1 Scaling laws OpenAI 2020 11 Scaling law FY2025Q1 FY 2020-2024 FY2024 609.22 297.6 53.69%80.62%FY2025Q1 260.44 262.12%240 148.81 628.30%225.63 427%87%CEO AI AI 10 AI AI 12 FY2020-FY2025Q1 13 FY2020-FY2025Q1 wind wind AI 2024 AI 827 AI 2027 AI 2164 14 AI 3.2 H20 H20 H20 H20 H20 Q2 24 H20 Ascend910B 10%H20 AI AI H20 CEO-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0100200300400500600700 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%050100150200250300350 yoy1953273855668271210167521640.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%050010001500200025002020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e AI AI 11 AI AI 15 FY2025Q1 CEO 3.3 BIS AI 2022 AI H800 A800 2022 10 I/O 600 Gbyte/s TOPS 4800TOPS A100 H100AI A800 H800 2023 10 AI H800 A800 AI 2023 10 30 A100 A800 16 2023 10 H800 A800 CNBC AI AI AI AI AI 12 AI AI AI 3.3.1 昇 910B 昇 2023 AI 昇 910B A100 200 1600 昇 910B AI 4.5 360 1000 昇 910B AI 昇 昇 AI 昇 IHV 昇 13 昇 17 昇 2024 2025 1 7994 7 昇 2024-2025 7 190 3 2024 2025 1 19,097,150,946.20 21.05%19,097,151,239.86 17.54%19,097,151,239.86 15.79%19,136,339,520.49 14.04%19,116,747,946.24 12.28%AI 13 19,116,746,188.47 10.53%19,057,961,546.55 8.77%C114 3.3.2 DCU GPGPU CPU DCU DCU 2022“”AI AI DCU 2023 Q3 18 DCU GPGPU DCU GPGPU CUDA CUDA IDIA C/C+IDIA GPU CUDA DCU GPGPU DCU AMD ROCm CUDA GPU TensorFlow Pytorch PaddlePaddle CUDA ROCm 23 IO IO 19 AI 14 3.3.3 370 370 chiplet 370 chiplet AI 390 256TOPS(INT8)270 2 MLUarch03 370 370 LPDDR5 AI 3 GDDR6 1.5 590 2022 2022 590 590 MLUarch05 IO 20 370 3.4 AI AI 15 21 Nature 2023 2 27 2522 22 2023 2 27 AI 16 昇 23 昇 AI 广电 五舟官 网、3 25 30EFLOPS 100P 1 24 AI 17(688111)(002230)-U(688031)(688041)-U(688256)(000977)(603019)(600498)(000938)(301236)(002152)A(000032)(600602)AI AI 18 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer