20240606_财信证券_新能源电池行业：固态电池具有技术颠覆潜力的新技术_32页.pdf

2024 06 06%1M 3M 12M-0.14-2.26-31.72 300-0.27 1.52-6.91:S0530524050001 1 2024-05-30 2 2024 5 4 369.0MWh2024-05-21 2023A 2024E 2025E EPS PE EPS PE EPS PE 10.03 20.35 11.25 18.14 13.41 15.22 0.06 162.50 0.47 20.74 0.75 13.00 4.45 22.13 5.38 18.31 6.48 15.20 iFinD 400Wh/kg Li+-38%-28%-18%-8%2%12%2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03新能源电 池 沪深300 -2-2027 2022 2027 2030 2500 2030 614.1GWh 10%2500 2030 6 60/WUBYwPrMsRnMqOnOmRpQpO6McMaQmOpPpNrNlOnNqOiNqRtRbRnNyQNZqMoOvPqMpR-3-1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 2.7 2.1.9 2.2.11 2.3.12 2.4.13 3.15 3.1.16 3.2.17 3.3-.18 4.20 4.1.20 4.2 2027.23 4.3 2030 600GWh 2500.24 5.25 5.1.25 5.2.26 5.3.28 5.4.29 5.5.30 6.30 7.31 1.5 2.6 3.8 4.9 5 LLZO LLZO.10 6 LGPS.12 7 Li3YCl 6 P3m1(c)Li3 YBr6 C2/m.13 8.14 9.15 10.16 11 PVDF-LA TP.17 12.17 13.18 14.19 15 SEI.19 16.20 -4-17.21 18.21 19/.24 20 Gwh.25 21.26 22.27 23 L6.28 24.29 25.29 26.29 27.30 1.7 2.8 3.11 4.14 5.17 6.18 7.22 8.23 9.26 ZzQSm80/DCtTfnYRYKDxsZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD6PVceLLlrw4ti8w3gf27HV-5-1 1.1 2020 2.02025 400Wh/kg 2030 500Wh/kg 400Wh/kg 1 -6-1.2 CTP 6.941 0.534g/cm-3 3860mAh/g 10-3.04V vs Li/Li+(PC)(DMC)(DEC)(EC);2 -7-1 PEO PC+LiPF6 3C 2 1mS cm1)-8-2 s/cm 10-710-4 SEI SEEO Solid Energy SolidPower Bollore 10-610-3 SONY SAKTI3 Quantum Scape 10-410-2 LG 3 -9-2.1 4 Solid-state lithium batteries-from fundamental research to industrial progress a)b)c)NASICON d)Lisicon e)Garnet f)Li 2.94PO 3.5N 0.31 CaTiO3 ABO3 A=Li La B=Ti Li3x La(2/3)-x(1/3)-2xTiO3 LLTO Li+1 10-3S cm-1 Li+2 10-5S cm-1 LLTO Li Ti4+2012 X+3B2-A-LiRAPs Li 3OCl bcc Li+LiRAPs 10-3S cm-1 Li+Li3OCl 0.5 Br 0.5 Li+-10-1.94mS cm-1 Li 3OCl Li 3 2xMxOCl M=Mg Ca Sr Ba Li+25 25mS cm-1 Li+LiRAPs LiRAP NASICON AxMM(XO4)3 A Li Na K Mg M M Fe Ti Zr X S P Si Li1+xAlxTi 2-x(PO4)3 LA TP NASICON 4 M/M O MO6 MO6 X O XO4 Li7La3 Zr 2O12 LLZO LLZO 100150 LLZO 4(a)(b)LLZO Li1 8a Li2 16f Li3 32g 4(c)(d)LLZO Li1 24d Li2 96h LLZO 5 LLZO LLZO -11-2.2 10V H 2S Thio-LISICON Li 6PS5X(X=Cl,Br,I)3 S.cm-1)-10-3 Thio-LISICON 10-3 10-3-Thio-LISICON LGPS Li2S-GeS2 Li2S-GeS2-Ga2S3 Li2S-GeS2-ZnS Thio-LISICON LISICON-Li3PO4 S O S O Li+Li+Thio-LISICON LISICON 2011 Li 10GeP2S12 LGPS 1.2 102S cm-1 1.0 102 S cm-1 LGPS LGPS(Ge0.5P0.5)S 4 PS4 LiS4 LiS6 Ge Si Sn Li4SiS4 Li 4SnS4 Li4SiS4 108S/cm Li4SnS4 100 3 10-4S/cm 20 7 10-5S/cm -12-6 LGPS Li+10-3 S/cm Li7PS6 Li 6PS5X(X=Cl,Br,I)Li7PS6(LT-Li7PS6 HT-Li7PS6)LT-Li7PS6 1.6 10-6S/cm,HT-Li7PS6 3.0 10-5 S/cm Li6PS5X(X=Cl,Br,I)F43m(FCC)Li+2.3 103S cm1 102S cm1/1)Li a-M-X6 2)Li a-M-X4 3)Li aM-X8(M=)103 S cm1 Lia-M-X6 Li2-M-X4 Lia-M-X6 Lia-M-X6 IIIB -13-Li+(hcp-T)(hcp-O)(ccp)7 Li 3YCl6 P3m1(c)Li 3YBr6 C2/m Lia-M-X4 M Li2MnCl 4 M LiaM-X8 suzuki MX6 Li+M Li+2.4 SPEs GPEs CPEs -14-4+:SPEs LEs SPEs SPEs Li+10-7 10-5S cm1 tLi+0.5 8/GPEs GPEs GPEs GPEs Li+10-3S cm1 GPEs GPEs -15-CPEs CPEs SEs SPEs SEs Li+10-4 S cm1 CPEs Li CPEs PEO/PVDF(HFP)/PTFE SE CPEs SPEs 3-(SE)9 -16-10 3.1 10 -17-11 PVDF-LATP 12 5/3.2 Monroe Newman -18-13 Solid-state batteries encounter challenges regarding the interface involving lithium metal,6/3.3-19-14 SEI SEI SEI 15 SE I Solid-state batteries encounter challenges regarding the interface involving lithium metal SEI -20-16 Solid-state batteries encounter challenges regarding the interface involving lithium metal 1:Li 2):4 4.1 2000 2010 2011 2015 2015 -21-17:Solid-state lithium batteries-from fundamental research to industrial progress,35.5%16.1%10.2%7.5%6.3%39.5%21.4%14.8%5.7%2.6%18 Solid-state lithium batteries-from fundamental research to industrial progress -22-7/1987 SSLB 863 2020 10 2021-2035)2023 2010 NEDO AIST LIBTEC 35 2018 NEDO 5 100 23 15 2022 2022 2030 2018 LG SDI SK 1000 9000 2021 7 K-Battery 50%20%1.5 2021 6 FCAB 2021-2030 SSLB 2030/60/500 Wh/kg 2018 11 10 EBA 250 2020 3 BA TTERY 2030+/2020 6 EUROBA T 2030 NMC 2030 400 Wh/kg Solid-state lithium batteries-from fundamental research to industrial progress -23-8/4.2 2027 2022 2023 2027 2027 电导率由低到高 -24-19/Solid-state lithium batteries-from fundamental research to industrial progress 4.3 2030 600GWh 2500 2030 2500 2022 2030 614.1GWh 10%2500 -25-20 Gwh EV tank 2030 6 60 GWh 100 2030 6 60 10/5 5.1 2016 CNAS 40 1100 32%20 200 360Wh/kg 1000+km 2023 280Ah 2023 320Wh/kg 1 3.311.133.987.6192.7361.8614.101002003004005006007002023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E-26-9 SHE 360S SHE 360C 4695 SHP800L NCM NCM NCM 360Wh/kg0.33C 350Wh/kg0.33C 300Wh/kg0.33C 775Wh/L0.33C 745Wh/L0.33C 800Wh/L0.33C 111Ah 106Ah 35Ah 3.51V 3.35V 3.58 60min(10%-80%Soc)35min(10%-80%Soc)20min(10%-80%Soc)*359*118*11.9mm 359*118*11.9mm 46*95mm 600cycles 1000cycles 1200cycles90%DOD 5.6GWh 100GWh 2020 2022 2023 21 5.2 2016 -27-0.6GWh 1GWh 10GWh 10GWh 15GWh 22 2020 2022 2023 27 2022 7 2024 4 L6 -28-23 L6 5.3 2016 400Wh/kg 2022-E70 2023 7 2023 9 10 3000+-29-24 25 5.4:2023 4 500Wh/kg 26 -30-5.5 2006 8000 2022-2023 48GWh 17 760 Inlay()1 MAB CTP+2 LCB Ceramion Logithium 3 ASM 27 6 2027 -31-7/-32-6 12/300 15%300 5%15%300-10%5%300 10%300 5%300-5%5%300 5%80 28 410005 0731-84403360 0731-84403438