20240612_东方证券_轻工制造行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：以价换量逻辑逐步兑现扫地机中长期成长空间充足_23页.pdf

|2024 4 12 2004 2014 2016 2016-2023 20%8%2016-2020 2021-2022 2023 80%21-22 2016-2020 2021 3000 2000 2023 4000 2023 11%2030 21%7 CAGR 8%2023 4000(688169)(603486)/2024 06 12 021-63325888*6069 S0860517020001 BSW124 2024/06/09 2024-06-10 2024 5 2024/06/09 2024-06-09 6 2024/06/01 2024-06-02 2 1.5 2 21-22.7 2.1 2016-2020.8 2.2.10 10 12 3.15 3.1.15 3.2.18.21.21 1ZFUwPnQmPmNqOoNrMtMrQ9PaO9PsQmMnPnRkPqQtNfQoPoN8OmMzRxNqNqNwMqNoM 3 1 2016-2023 20%.5 2 2016-2023 8%.5 3 2021-2022 2023.6 4 2021.6 5 5.6 6 2018.6 7 2019 80%.7 8 CR5 2019 CR5 2021.7 9 2019 80%.7 10 2020 70%.7 11 2017-2020.8 12 2021-2022 2000.8 13 2020 999.11 14 2021/1000-1499.11 15 2000.12 16 2020 2000.13 17 2020 2000.13 18 2020 2000.13 19 2020 2000.14 20 2021 2000.14 21.14 22 2020.14 23 2021 1000-1499 1500-1999.15 24 2023 3000-4000.15 25 2023 3000-4000.15 26 2023 3000-4000.16 27.19 4 28.19 1 2017 1500-1999 DD35.8 2 2016 2017.8 3 2018 2000-2499 DN55 DN33 S5.9 4 2018.9 5 2019 2500 T5 T61RR.9 6 2019.9 7 2020 J1.10 8 2023 11 Top10 3000-4000.16 9 3000-4000.17 10 2023 2000-3000 3000-4000.18 11 2023 11%.18 12 7 CAGR 8%.20 TnnUcU6j2nievIsaft5x8ZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4Rk8+/ACdDGHO3nVC/Ugk1 5 2024 4 12 2004 2014 2022 2023 2016-2023 21-22 1 7 CAGR 20%8%2016 2023 137 458 2016-2023 20%8%2023 2024 29%22%1 2016-2023 20%2 2016-2023 8%2021-2022 2023 2021 3000 2021 2022 2021 2022 11%23%2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020406080100120140160 yoy-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100200300400500600700 yoy 6 3 2021-2022 2023 4 2021 2018 2017 2016 2017 60%2018 5 5 6 2018 2019 2019 2023 26 2016 2019 80%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%201701201705201709201801201805201809201901201905201909202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309202401 yoy yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023.1-110%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 7 2019 80%8 CR5 2019 CR5 2021 80%70%80%70%2019 2020 9 2019 80%10 2020 70%2 21-22 2017-2020 2021-2022 2017-2020 2021 3000 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%CR5 CR5-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%050100150200250300CR5 CR5 CR5 yoy CR5 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201601201605201609201701201705201709201801201805201809201901201905201909202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309202401 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201601201605201609201701201705201709201801201805201809201901201905201909202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309202401 8 2000 11 2017-2020 12 2021-2022 2000 2.1 2016-2020 2017 2017 1500-1999 DD35 2016 1000-1499 DT85 1 2017 1500-1999 DD35 2 2016 2017 2016H2 2017H2 999-SCEN540 美的 R1-L083B R1-L083B 科沃斯 CEN540-LG 1000-1499 DT85 CEN546 CEN540-MI S DG710 CEN546 1500-1999 DD35 米家扫地 机器人 2018 2000-2499 2018 2000-2499 2017 1500-1999 2018 0204060801001201401601802016H1 2016H2 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2999-1000-1499 1500-1999 2000-24992500-2999 3000-3499 3500-3999 4000 Top20 0501001502002503002020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 2023H2999-1000-1499 1500-1999 2000-24992500-2999 3000-3499 3500-3999 4000 pa DT85 2015 年4 月/700Pa3000mAh 2016 年10 月/1800Pa5200mAhDD35 2017 年3 月/500Pa3000mAh 9 3 2018 2000-2499 DN55 DN33 S5 4 2018 2017H2 2018H2 1500-1999 DD35 家扫地机 器人 科沃斯 DJ35 2000-2499 DD35 DN55 DN33、石头 S5 2019 2019 2500-2999 T5 MAX T61RR 2018 2019 2500-2999 5 2019 2500 T5 T61RR 6 2019 2018H2 2019H2 2000-2499 DN55 DN33 S5 T5 MAX/POWER 2500-2999 T5 MAX T61RR 2020 2000 2020 T8 T7 J1 2000 AI J1 2000-3999 pa 2016 年10 月/1800Pa5200mAhDD35 2017 年3 月/500Pa3000mAhS5 2017 年11 月/2000Pa5200mAhDN33 2018 年5 月/600/10003000mAhDN55 2018 年6 月/600/10002600mAh pa S5 2017 年11 月/2000Pa 5200mAh DN33 2018 年5 月/600/1000Pa 3000mAh DN55 2018 年6 月/600/1000Pa 2600mAh T61RR 2019 年4 月/2000Pa 5200mAh T5 MAX 2019 年5 月/1500Pa 5200mAh 10 7 2020 J1 2.2 2016 2000 2016 2020 2021 2020 999 2020 999 999 T5 MAX 2019 年4 月 2000-2999/1500Pa 5200mAh T61RR 2019 年5 月 2500-2999/2000Pa 5200mAh T8 MAX 2020 年4 月 2500-2999 1500Pa 5200mAh T8 AIVI 2020 年3 月 3000-3499 AI 1500Pa 5200mAh T7 2020 年3 月 2500-2999/2500Pa 5200mAh T7 PRO 2020 年5 月 3000-3499 AI 2500Pa 5200mAh J1 2019 年10 月 3500/1800Pa 5200mAh 11 13 2020 999 2020 Top20 1000-1499 2021+/1000-1499 14 2021/1000-1499 0102030402000Pa 2000-2999Pa3000-4999Pa 5000Pa 010203040 010203040 010203040/AI 0102030403000mAh 3000-5000mAh5000mAh 010203040 010203040 010203040 010203040/AI AI+0102030402000Pa 2000-2999Pa3000-4999Pa 5000Pa 0102030403000mAh 3000-5000mAh5000mAh 010203040 12 2021 Top20 2019 2019 2000 1000-1499 2021 1500-1999 2020 2021 1500-1999 Top20 15 2000 1 2016-2019 11 Top20 11 2 300 999 1000-1499 2020 2021 2019 2020 2020 2000 2000 2020 024681012 999 0510152025303540 1000-1499 024681012141618 1500-1999 13 16 2020 2000 17 2020 2000 1 11 Top20 2 3 1 2000 2 3 2020 2020 2020 999 1000-1499 20%50%0%20%2020 2000 2021 2000 18 2020 2000 020406080100120140160999-1000-1499 1500-1999 2000-24992500-2999 3000-3499 3500-3999 4000-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020406080100120 yoy yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%201910201911201912202001202002202003202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109202110202111202112202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212999 1000-1499 1500-1999 14 19 2020 2000 20 2021 2000 11 Top20 1 11 Top20 300 2 11 2020 1000-1499 20%2020 2021 2022 2000 63 34 50%47%21 22 2020 1 2 1 2 2021 2021 010002000300040005000600070002012/04 2013/08 2014/12 2016/05 2017/09 2019/02 2020/06 2021/10 2023/03 012345678 999 0510152025 1000-1499 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%999 1000-1499 1500-1999 02468101214161820999 1000-1499 1500-1999 15 23 2021 1000-1499 1500-1999 1000-1499 1500-1999 Top50 3 3.1 2023 3000-4000 4000 G10S T10 OMNI 4699 G10S X1 OMNI 5699 5999 2023 3000-4000 3000 T10 PRO P10 3000-4000 2023 11 Top10 24 2023 3000-4000 25 2023 3000-4000 0246810121416181000-1499 1500-1999 2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,500202109202110202111202112202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202303202304202305202306202307202308202309202310202311202312202401202402202403202404X1 OMNI T10 OMNI T20 PROT20S PRO T10 PRO T30 PRO 2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,000202109202110202111202112202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202303202304202305202306202307202308202309202310202311202312202401202402202403202404G10 G10S G10S Pro G10 PLUSG10S Auto G10S PURE P10 G20P10 PRO P10S PRO 16 26 2023 3000-4000 8 2023 11 Top10 3000-4000 2023 11 Top10 2023 2022 4000 2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000202001202003202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309202311202401202403J1 J2 J3 J4 量 1 石头 P10 PRO 6.57%38772 科沃斯 T20S PRO 6.26%35693 科沃斯 T20S PRO(上下水版）5.52%40104 小米 米家免洗扫拖机器人2 5.45%18865 云鲸 J4 4.29%38596 石头 P10 PRO(上下水版）4.07%44547 石头 P10 3.76%29288 云鲸 J4(上下水版）3.66%44949 科沃斯 T10 PRO 3.33%307410 科沃斯 X2 3.11%5098 17 9 3000-4000 T30 PRO P10 PRO P10S PRO J4 O O O O 2024 2 2023 8 2024 3 2023 8 3999 3999 3999 3999 618 3399 3499 3999 3399 LDS LDS LDS LDS TrueDetect 3D 3.0+AI+AI 3D mm 20 20 20 20+Pa 11000 7000 11000 7800 3L 2.7L 2.7L 1L 4L 3.5L 55ml 4L 3.5L 80ml 4L 3.5L 80ml 4.5L 4.05L 45 AI 70 60 60-FlexiArm FlexiArm-&mAh)5200 5200 5200 5200 YIKO“”AI 3.0“”8mm 2000-4000 4000 3000 3000-4000 2000-3000 2024 1-4 27%3000-4000 2000-3000 46%56%18 10 2023 2000-3000 3000-4000 3.2 11%3-5 2023 11%15%17%25%11 2023 11%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 13.92 14.00 14.05 14.10 14.12 14.13 14.12 14.10 YOY 0.7%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%58.8%60.2%61.5%62.7%63.9%64.7%65.2%66.2%3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 26,342 27,295 28,063 28,710 29,388 29,780 29,992 30,379 YOY 3.0%3.6%2.8%2.3%2.4%1.3%0.7%1.3%274 422 613 628 654 579 441 458 YOY 32.4%54.0%45.3%2.4%4.1%-11.5%-23.8%3.8%40.0%30.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%30.0%643 1,008 1,572 2,141 2,645 3,006 3,170 3,438 2.4%3.7%5.6%7.5%9.0%10.1%10.6%11.3%1 2 3-5 3 Wind 2000 yoy 2000 2000-3000 yoy 2000-3000 3000-4000 yoy 3000-4000 4000 yoy 4000202107-59%46%-11%20%551%32%-85%1%202108-42%51%5%24%52%24%-69%1%202109-45%49%-6%21%293%24%-29%5%202110-41%46%-25%21%220%20%1534%14%202111-59%28%-54%19%206%38%2288%15%202112-64%34%-45%19%335%33%365%14%202201-59%36%-55%15%439%34%160%15%202202-70%34%-65%18%271%36%92%12%202203-68%31%-74%13%11%43%1621%12%202204-67%26%-77%13%-23%37%515%24%202205-37%21%-13%14%349%38%1269%27%202206-64%22%-59%18%-30%32%1396%27%202207-52%34%-31%21%-44%27%920%18%202208-62%29%-62%14%20%43%808%14%202209-49%31%-57%11%12%34%252%23%202210-22%21%-12%11%203%36%279%31%202211-40%22%-50%13%-37%32%61%33%202212-40%31%-47%15%-51%24%42%30%202301-37%33%-38%14%-53%24%33%29%202302-10%33%-28%14%-22%29%91%24%202303-13%29%-28%11%-35%31%115%29%202304-6%28%-28%11%-35%28%19%33%202305 23%25%-20%11%-2%35%19%30%202306-1%23%-29%14%0%33%7%30%202307 2%35%-23%17%-5%27%15%21%202308 13%34%15%16%-38%27%48%22%202309-16%28%4%12%4%38%-10%22%202310 29%19%105%16%47%37%24%27%202311-21%19%20%17%-2%35%-17%29%202312-5%27%27%17%34%30%-3%26%202401 19%33%28%15%38%27%4%25%202402 25%36%53%18%11%29%-22%17%202403 28%25%74%13%84%39%18%24%202404 20%27%94%16%45%32%-9%24%19 27 iRobot 28/2021 iRobot Wind 7 CAGR 8%2023 73%2030 21%7 CAGR 8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%5 CAGR 0%1%2%3%4%5%/20 12 7 CAGR 8%2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 14.13 14.12 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10 14.10 YOY 0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%64.7%65.2%66.2%67.2%68.2%69.2%70.2%71.2%72.2%73.2%3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 29,780 29,992 30,379 30,838 31,297 31,757 32,216 32,675 33,134 33,593 YOY 1.3%0.7%1.3%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%579 441 458 593 654 685 700 735 772 796 YOY-11.5%-23.8%3.8%2 9.6%1 0.2%4.7%2.2%5.0%5.0%3.2%50.0%50.0%30.0%50%40%30%30%30%30%30%3,006 3,170 3,438 3,722 4,153 4,690 5,241 5,806 6,384 6,977 10.1%10.6%11.3%12.1%13.3%14.8%16.3%17.8%19.3%20.8%1 2 3-5 Wind 21 2023 4000(688169)(603486)22 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer