20240611_国泰君安_2024年纺织服装行业中期投资策略：制造景气度向上品牌表现分化_36页.pdf

制造景气度向上，品牌表现分化2024 年纺织 服装 中期投 资策略1/2/361 3/0YAZuNnQoNnMtNoNnQrOmN7NdN7NsQmMmOnRlOmMsMkPrQsR8OpPzRuOsPtOxNrNuN2 3 qpQ9gE+H1crI3KA5L4UnO5DzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD7ty8iRhzlj6yPQ/cLBLqFY 4 2%4%-2%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000 5007009001100130015001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Wind 2 1-25 2024Q1 A/1-2 3 32023Q1Wind(2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1-26.42%45.40%-0.16%0.64%2.35%-56.00%134.18%-15.98%20.71%-2.06%-32.95%44.69%0.95%12.14%9.28%-68.03%156.64%-2.76%19.09%10.27%12.50%35.98%19.33%-4.79%9.64%8.18%84.59%30.33%-38.30%32.17%-12.36%41.03%8.55%-2.03%5.83%-41.27%113.22%0.97%-7.16%8.69%6-20%-10%0%10%20%300-20%0%20%40%1/2/20241/16/20241/30/20242/21/20243/6/20243/20/20244/3/20244/19/20245/8/20245/22/2024-40%-20%0%20%40%1/3/2024 1/17/2024 1/31/2024 2/22/2024 3/7/2024 3/21/2024 4/8/2024 4/22/2024 5/9/2024 5/23/2024 Wind 2024Wind 2024Wind 20247 2024Q12024Q1 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q42024Q1 70%+67%40-45%50-55%50-55%100%100%65-70%65-70%65-70%FILA 25-30%20%30%+361 15%20%+15-20%20-25%9.0%14.2%2.8%14.3%2.5%2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1 5 5 5+6+5 5 5 FILA6-7 7 7-8 7+5 5 5 4 3.6 4+4.2 4-4.5 3.8 5 3.6 4-4.5 4 4.5 4.5-5 5.5 5 5 4.5-5 4-4.5 4-4.5 Wind Wind8-40%-20%0%20%40%60%1/3/20241/17/20241/31/20242/22/20243/7/20243/21/20244/8/20244/22/20245/9/20245/23/2024 361-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%1/3/20241/17/20241/31/20242/22/20243/7/20243/21/20244/8/20244/22/20245/9/20245/23/2024 HK()-Wind 2024 Wind 20249 10 Wind:2024 4 2022/2023-1%/-2.4%Wind:2024 3/4 2022/2023+4%/-4%2023Q1 Q2 2023Q1 Q2 4 9 11 2024 2024 4/-2.4%/-3.9%2022 4-1%/+4%3-12%/+2%-50%0%50%100%050010001500202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309202311202401202403 yoy-50%0%50%100%050010001500202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309202311202401202403 yoy11 2022 2023 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1申洲国际 16.5%-10.1%19.6%13.7%-14.9%-5.5%华利集团 17.7%-2.2%11.4%28.5%23.3%7.4%-11.2%-3.9%-6.9%11.7%30.2%伟星股份 8.1%7.7%33.6%17.4%11.5%-17.8%-3.6%2.4%8.7%23.8%14.8%新澳股份 14.6%12.4%40.2%9.2%6.3%11.5%9.4%9.6%18.3%12.5%12.5%百隆东方-10.1%-1.1%5.4%-2.8%7.8%-43.1%-24.8%-12.8%6.2%44.4%23.5%富春染织 1.5%13.7%44.0%-4.5%-2.0%-11.1%-0.2%11.5%22.6%18.4%13.5%12.2%-3.5%15.6%15.9%15.4%-8.0%-10.9%-2.5%1.3%18.1%23.9%中游上游板块整体收 入 y o y1 2024Q112 2022 2023 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1申洲国际 35.3%-0.1%6.3%91.7%-10.1%10.7%华利集团 16.6%-0.9%12.4%28.0%25.1%1.5%-25.8%6.7%-5.9%16.7%63.7%伟星股份 9.0%14.2%45.1%28.7%28.2%-163.6%-17.7%0.6%10.6%181.5%45.2%新澳股份 30.7%3.7%47.4%37.5%14.2%23.4%21.2%-2.1%1.0%2.2%6.6%百隆东方-39.8%-102.7%55.8%35.0%2.0%-134.7%-77.1%-70.5%-140.7%34.4%-109.8%富春染织-30.0%-35.9%-32.7%46.4%-65.8%-67.4%-13.1%-78.1%39.7%42.5%30.1%14.1%-8.5%24.1%31.3%16.1%-57.9%-37.0%-16.9%-24.1%42.2%35.8%中游上游板块整体归 母 净 利 y o y2 2024Q113 1 2024 3 2.32 2.29 2 2024 4 2019 2022 20231.522.51 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024Wind2024()()()()()2023Q1-14%-18%-11%-36%-2%2023Q2-16%-21%-19%-30%-2%2023Q3-11%-24%-43%-26%-1%2023Q4-1%-10%-16%11%10%2024Q1 6%1%19%17%10%2024 4 4%3%10%13%6%11.21.41.61.821-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 20212022 2023 2024Wind14 1 2024 1-4 1.0%22024 1-4 1.5%Wind-10%0%10%20%30%2022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/92023/112024/12024/3:CPI:Wind2024-50%0%50%100%01,0002,0003,0002021/22021/42021/62021/82021/102021/122022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/22023/42023/62023/82023/102023/122024/3:2024 Adidas Yoy Nike 23/6-24/5 1%Adidas24/1-24/12(Puma24/1-24/12 lululemon 24/2-25/1 11%12%23/9-24/8 9.5%Deckers 23/4-24/3 10%15 1 2 3 ESG 4 Wind:EPS PE 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E2313.HK HKD 83.00 4.08 4.74 5.42 20 18 15 300979.SZ CNY 67.66 3.38 3.95 4.60 20 17 15 002003.SZ CNY 12.99 0.56 0.65 0.76 23 20 17 603889.SH CNY 7.46 0.64 0.75 0.84 12 10 9 002674.SZ CNY 10.60 0.90 1.17 1.52 12 9 7 601339.SH CNY 5.14 0.40 0.54 0.62 13 10 8-16 17 WindFILA3612023Q120%2023Q22023Q315%2023Q420-25%15-20%25-30%30%+20%+2024Q12024Q1 361-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.002022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-032024-04%ifind202418 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q170%+67%40-45%50-55%50-55%100%100%65-70%65-70%65-70%FILA 25-30%20%30%+361 15%20%+15-20%20-25%9.0%14.2%2.8%14.3%2.5%KWind19 20232023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q15 55 5 5FILA 5 5 554-4.53.853.64-4.55 54.5-5 4-4.5 4-4.52024Q1Wind2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 72FILA7667-75 75 7-75 7 7-752024Q1Wind20 202421-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000200920112013201520172019202120232025E2027E2023-2028 CAGR 5.5%Euromonitor-20%0%20%40%60%2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232021-2023Euromonitor2023-2028 CAGR14%22 2017-2019 2020-2023 2020-2023 2020-20232020-2023 CR50 40.2%64.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023CR50 41.3 40.7 38.7 39.2 40.2 54.3 64.0-0.6-2.0 0.5 1.0 14.1 9.7:133 39 44 44 32 44 3435.8 32.9 30.3 29.7 30.8 43.4 53.5/-2.9-2.6-0.6 1.1 12.6 10.11.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.6/-0.2-0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.6217 15 23 32 21 26 185.5 7.8 8.4 9.5 9.4 10.9 10.5/2.3 0.6 1.1-0.1 1.5-0.40.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6/0.2-0.2-0.1 0.2 0.0 0.212/121223 EPS PE 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E2331.HK HKD 19.14 1.41 1.56 1.73 14 12 11 2020.HK HKD 82.15 5.34 5.67 6.48 15 14 13 1368.HK HKD 4.98 0.50 0.56 0.64 10 9 8 1361.HK 361 HKD 4.36 0.60 0.70 0.80 7 6 5 24 25 3.4%3.0%2.6%0%5%10%300 2023 2023 2024Q1/PE 2024 61 6.3%77%79%53%12-368 6.3%67%46%-16%11-464 5.8%91%65%29%14 70%*95 5.7%95%57%20%15-51 4.7%62%52%29%12-172 4.7%72%72%56%13-74 4.5%58%68%26%12 10 2 82 4.5%52%54%23%10-75 3.8%67%57%30%13-Wind 2024/5/31=+-PE-TTM26+2024Q1/8.7%/10.4%34%152024 2023 91%202470%2024 6-7%Wind2024-2026Wind357 486 727 1,054 1,252 1,267 5,241 5,057 4,945 4,888 4,724 4,687 02000400060008000 21.6 29.5 33.2 37.8 42.5-20%0%20%40%010203040502022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy 2023 2.7 24%100-150 3-4 132 100-200 3+2.7 Wind27 2024Q1/+5%/+10%2024-2026 11%/10%/8%Wind Wind437 470 471 484 817 1055 999 1010 05001000150020002020 2021 2022 2023-10%0%10%20%024682022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy28 0100200300400 2024Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1-11%48%30%33%18%15%-18%12%-8%9%-16%54%16%11%5%-34%21%0%-9%5%-13%78%1%8%-1%-30%61%-9%2%-12%-17%93%-8%-16%-13%-25%55%41%41%20%-7%-44%40%-13%10%-29%178%14%24%-2%-95%-41%49%11%-95%-57%149%13%-37%60%-23%9%-33%-90%-6%14%-27%29 2024-2026+32%/+19%/+18%Wind 7.3 9.1 12.0 14.3 16.9 0%50%051015202022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy441 486 532 579 607 453 493 568 612 648 0500100015002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind SKU Wind 30 Wind Wind 17.3 17.6-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy yoy 740 797 779 796 804 817 365 392 393 401 417 457 180196192291293269479 46348705001000150020002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 31 32 EPS PE 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E300979.SZ CNY 67.66 3.38 3.95 4.60 20 17 15 002003.SZ CNY 12.99 0.56 0.65 0.76 23 20 17 603889.SH CNY 7.46 0.64 0.75 0.84 12 10 9 002674.SZ CNY 10.60 0.90 1.17 1.52 12 9 7 601339.SH CNY 5.14 0.40 0.54 0.62 13 10 8-2313.HK HKD 83.00 4.08 4.74 5.42 20 18 15 2331.HK HKD 19.14 1.41 1.56 1.73 14 12 11 2020.HK HKD 82.15 5.34 5.67 6.48 15 14 13 1368.HK HKD 4.98 0.50 0.56 0.64 10 9 8 1361.HK 361 HKD 4.36 0.60 0.70 0.80 7 6 5 002154.SZ CNY 5.85 0.55 0.63 0.70 11 9 8 600398.SH CNY 9.35 0.69 0.79 0.89 14 12 11 002832.SZ CNY 29.52 2.11 2.51 2.97 14 12 10 603808.SH CNY 6.96 0.61 0.84 1.03 11 8 7 603518.SH CNY 9.45 1.08 1.28 1.49 9 7 6-002293.SZ CNY 8.84 0.73 0.84 0.93 12 11 9 002327.SZ CNY 11.40 0.76 0.84 0.90 15 14 13 300952.SZ CNY 18.71 1.29 1.78 2.42 15 11 8 603055.SH CNY 11.28 0.68 0.83 0.97 17 14 12 002563.SZ CNY 6.37 0.50 0.57 0.65 13 11 10 603587.SH CNY 12.60 1.15 1.28 1.39 11 10 9 603877.SH CNY 15.11 1.20 1.39 1.60 13 11 9 603365.SH CNY 18.02 1.63 1.85 2.06 11 10 9-603558.SH CNY 10.72 0.90 1.04 1.19 12 10 9 33 202434 35评级 说明 国泰君安证券研究所E-mail：投资建议的比较标准股票投资评级增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅15%以上上海投资评级分为股票评级和行业评级。谨慎增持 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于5%15%之间以报告发布后的12个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后的12 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期的沪深300指数涨跌幅为基准。中性 相对沪深300/恒生指数涨幅介于-5%5%深圳 减持 相对沪深300/恒生指数下跌5%以上行业投资评级增持 明显强于沪深300/恒生指数中性 基本与沪深300/恒生指数持平北京 减持 明显低于沪深300/恒生指数地址 上海市静安区新闸路669 号博华广场20 层邮编 200041电话（021）38676666地址 深圳市福田区益田路6003 号荣超商务中心B 栋27 层邮编 518026电话（0755）23976888地址 北京市西城区金融大街甲9 号 金融街中心南楼18 层邮编 100032电话（010）83939888