20240613_东方证券_电力设备行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：国内电网建设稳步发展海外电力建设周期启动_40页.pdf

|2024 2024 2025 3 3500 2.23 6700 2.9 3 2.57 2(688676)(301291)(600089)(002922)(603191)(002270)(688190)(002533)(601567)(603556)(300360)(300880)(600131)(000682)(601126)(300286)(688100)(601877)(601222)(300001)(688208)(600406)(601179)(000400)(002028)(600312)(301289)(603606)(605222)(600869)(600226)(605196)(834682)/2024 06 13 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 021-63325888*6119 S0860520080004 S0860523050001 021-63325888*6090 S0860520060002 BSW113 2 1.6 1.1.7 1.2.8 1.3.9 2.11 2.1.12 2.2.13 2.3.16 2.4.22 2.5.24 3.28 3.1.28 3.2.30 3.3.31 3.4.33 3.5.34 4.36 5.37 ZXEVvMnQpMrQoQpMsPtMqR7N9R7NtRoOnPnRlOqQqOkPoPrNaQrRuNMYrRsMwMnNsN 3 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 5 2023.8 6 2018-2023.8 7.9 8(2022).9 9 Enel 2024-2026.10 10.10 11 2030 GWh.10 12 2015-2023.10 13.11 14“”.12 15/W.13 16/W.13 17 2018-2022%.13 18 2018-2022%.13 19 2018-2022.16 20.16 21 2023.16 22“”.17 23“”.17 24%.17 25%.17 26%.18 27.19 28.19 29.20 30 E9370.20 31.21 32.21 33.22 34 2023.22 4 35 2023.22 36.23 37 E8000.23 38.23 39 2022%.25 40.25 41%.25 42 2023.25 43 2021%.26 44.26 45%.26 46 2023.26 47 2023%.26 48.26 49%.27 50 2023.27 51 2022-2032.27 52 2022-2032.27 53%.28 54 2023%.28 55.29 56.29 57 2024Q1.29 58 2015-2023.30 59 2024H1.31 60.31 61.31 62.31 63.33 64 FY2023.33 65.33 66,%.34 67,%.34 68.34 69 2023.34 70.35 71,%.35 72.35 yz/rRoSK+LfMv4uGtQvRcpDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD5K/57G3ECoNJPkIzgSyOsa 5 73,%.36 74 GAAP,%.36 1 2024.14 2.18 3 2022 10.19 4 2021-2024.21 5.23 6 1“”2024 4 5 5 23 9 23 7 1.2002(5)2.2015(9)3.2024 2024 2025 1)2025 7 6200 4000 3%5%40%5%2)90%20%2024 1.1 2024 1 2023 9.22 6.7%2018-2023 6.14%1 30 2024 9.8 2023 6%2024 3 3 3500 2.23 6700 2.9 3 2.57 2 1 2 8 1.2 2023 5200 2019 2022 5012 2.66%2022 895 6700 1340 3 4 2023 29.2 13.9%6.1 55.2%4.4 20.7%2023 9675 30.1%10.64%9.81%10.24%30%5275 5.4%5 2023 6 2018-2023 9 1.3(BloombergNEF),2023 5%3100,600 DOE,2024 Q1 2024 49 567 7 8(2022)Wood Mackenzie EEI 10 9 Enel 2024-2026 10 Enel Bloomberg NEF,Geothermal Development Company,GDC 2023-2027 11 2030 GWh Dagnachew et al.,2023 12 2015-2023 11 2 13 12 2.1 2023 6 2023 14 13 15/W 16/W CPIA CPIA 2.2 2022 220 88 2.6%2018-2022 220 2022 110 60170 15.7%220 2223 1800 21.7%43.8%-2022 18815 9.3%2018-2022 17 2018-2022%18 2018-2022%14 1 2024 1 800 1 1600 1069 2 1000 1000 1000 2 300 1000 743.4 3 800 1 1600 699 4 1000 1000 6 300 1000 1000 1540 5 800 1 1600 2345 6 500 500 500 102 7 500 500 500 273.8 8 500 500 500 100 埇 500 225.6 9 500 500 500 2 100 埇 500 172 10 500 500 500 2 100 500 121.2 11 500 500 500 107.6 12 500 500 500 2 120 500 54 13 500 500 500 2 120 500 3.2 14 500 500 500 2 120 500 135 15 500 500 500 120 500 109 16 500 500 500 120 500 86.9 17 500 500 500 2 120 500 98.4 18 500 500 2 500 2 120 19 500 500 2 500 2 120 20 500 500 2 500 2 75 15 21 750 750 750 1297 22 750 750 1 750 210 23 750 750 2 750 2 150 24 750 750 750 2 210 750 45 25 750 750 750 3 210 750 206 26 750 750 750 3 150 750 158 27 750 750 750 3 150 750 158 28 500 500 500 500 500 180 29 500 500 500 2 100 500 12.7 30 500#5#6 500kV#5#6 500kV 2 170 31 500 500 500 75 500 10 32 500 500 1 500 75 33 500 500 500 265 34 500 500 500 220 35 CZ1 220 CZ1 500 41 36 CZ2 CZ3 220 CZ2 CZ3 220 24 37 220 220 220 220 14.4 2022 220 51 3.4%110 35320 4.9%/()16 2026 43%19 2018-2022 20 2023 CR5 30.82%2023 713.21 30.22%53.94 7.56%71%52.05 41.85 38.80 33.14 11.44 10.95 10.63 10.45 65 21 2023 2023 2.3 2024 2 17 110 110 66 35 10 20 6 380 220 1.5 1.2 60%6700 51%3200 50%100%2025 5 2020 22 23 2022 99.972%0.004 0.38/0.02/6.79/0.51/1 1 0.5 2022 5.08%14.6 0.11 10kV 2.90%0.01 24%25%18 2021 2022 60%26%2 19 DTU FTU 27 28 2022 27 163,405 163,168 158 2022 7 11.7 24 CR5 49.38%3 2022 10 20 E9372 E9373 E9372 E9372-O2 E9372-O3 E9373 29 30 E9370 2021-2023 2024 8-10 2009 2016-2017 2021-2023 2 23 2024 4653.47+75.58%82.26%12.61%2.34%2.77%0.02%4415.6 84.16%A 3827.77+106.80%21 31 4 2021-2024+32 煜邦 电力招 股说明 书、2021-2023 200 2023 2 232.87 9.18%2023 3%CR5 16.11%2022 2023 22 33 34 2023 2023 2 45.77 18.70%2022 2023 2022 CR5 42.41%2.4+2022 18 6.45 CR5 71.31%35 2023 23()()()()()5 36 MPP 37 E8000 38 24 2.5 2022 237 IMARC 2028 381 2023-2028 7.8%25 39 2022%40 precedence research IMARC 2023 103 23%36%33%24%41%42 2023 2022 641.6 precedence research 2032 1195.4 2023-2032 6.42%26 43 2021%44 CWIEME Precedence research 2023 373 26%48%22%11%45%46 2023 2023 2027 2033 3722.7 6.27%47 2023%48 27 precedence research precedence research 2023 1626 3.5%49%17%16%49%50 2023 2023 802.1 precedence research 2032 1550.8 2023-2032 7.60%2023 2023 388.7 2032 679.3 2023-2032 7.4%51 2022-2032 52 2022-2032 28 precedence research precedence research 2023 2473 1.06%24Q1 599 3.13%49%25%13%53%54 2023%3 3.1 29 ETN.N 1911 55 2024 59.4 8%13.7 27%23.1%3.4 2024 70%77%2023 101 19%27 40%27%4 2024 26.9 17%7.85 50%29.2%6.3 1 56 57 2024Q1 30 3.2 ENR.DF 2023 46,500 51,000 2023 6 12,000 2023 62 11%58 2015-2023 2024 28%30%31 59 2024H1 60 61 3.3 Hitachi Energy Ltd.62 32 33 63 64 FY2023 3.4 GEC.L 1892 GE AEROSPACE GE VERNOVA GE HEALTHCARE GE VERNOVA 65 2023 2022 327.81 16.96%2019-2022 34 2023 411.06 2022 26.55%66,%67,%2019-2023 39%/38%/37%/41%/41%31%/33%/34%/29%/26%3%9%38%25%16%12%68 69 2023 3.5 298040.KS 35 70 2021-2023 3.8/5.6/7.1 18.04%/46.89%/27.15%24Q1 1.9 11.4%60%24Q1 69%25%6%71,%72 哈蒙 德电气 36 2018-2023 23%33%2023 1.7 GAAP 19-23 GAAP 8.7/10.5/12.1/34.5/47 188%/20%/15%/185%/36%73,%74 GAAP,%哈蒙 德电气 哈蒙 德电气 4(688676)(301291)(600089)(002922)(603191)(002270)(688190)(002533)(601567)(603556)(300360)(300880)(600131)(000682)(601126)(300286)(688100)(601877)(601222)(300001)(688208)(600406)(601179)(000400)(002028)(600312)(301289)(603606)(605222)(600869)(600226)(605196)(834682)37 5 38 1%(603606)1%(000682)1%39 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer