20240606_东方证券_银行行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：顺周期、基本面、高股息长期逻辑演绎银行估值修复行情有望延续_20页.pdf

|1 2 3 4 1 5 2 4 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 RWA 23Q3 IFRS9 24Q1 2.46%23 0.51pct 2021 IFRS9 FVTPL FVOCI 2024 5 1(601009)(601077)(002142)(601916)2(601328)/2024 06 06 S0860523060001 S0860524020002 2024-05-19 M1 4 2024-05-12 24Q2 2024-05-12 2.4.6 2.1.6 2.2“”.8 2.3.9.11 3.1“”.11 3.2.11 3.3.12.15 IFRS9.17.18.18 XVDWvMtOmPpOqOpMtOqPoP9P9RbRoMpPnPtPlOrRoQkPqQpQ7NoOvMvPmQsOvPoNmO 3 1 2014.5 2 2014.5 3 GDP.6 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.8 8 2024.8 9.11 10.12 11.12 12.13 13 PB-LF.13 14.13 15.13 16.13 17.14 18 10.15 19 10.15 20 10.15 21 2019-2023 A.16 22.16 23.17 1 2024.8 2 2023.8 3 2019.10 4 IAS39 IFRS9.17 4 2024 4 12 2004 2014 10 2024 6 4 PB LF 58%2014 1 2 20%3 2014 2014.10-2014.12 10 MLF 2017.05-2018.01 2017Q3-Q4 2018.07-2018.10 2018 7 0.5pct 13%2018Q3-Q4 2020.08-2021.04 2020H1 LPR 6 13%2023.12 2024 5 2024 6 4 LLTQitbhfXGueCbQdcI+2JDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD5mCEzYHf1cMoju7Rhe5U28 5 1 2014 Wind 300 2 2014 Wind 2016 9 9 1 2 3 2014 10-12 4 2023 12 2024 6 4 PB LF 0.57 58%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%6 3 GDP Wind 2.1 2014 2014-2016 33pct 21pct 11pct 1pct 2017-2019 5pct 11pct 2pct 2020-2022 12pct 10pct 6pct 2023 6pct 7pct 1pct-20%-10%0%10%20%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%GDP 7 4 Wind 2016-2020 2023Q4 1 2024 2014 PSL 2015-2017 2022 5 6 Wind Wind 1 5 5 7000 4400 2.7 6-11 2 5000 PSL 100%120%140%160%180%200%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,00020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%+8 1 2024 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 20Y 30Y 50Y 1 4W 3W 2W 2W 2W 3W/2W/2 4W 2W 4W 4W 2W 4W/1W/3 4W 3W 2W 4W 4W 3W/2W/4 4W 2W 1W 4W 2W 1W/5W/5 4W 2W 3W 4W 3W 4W 4W 3W/6 5W 3W 2W 3W 5W 3W 4W 2W+4W 3W 7 3W 2W 1W 2W 4W 2W 3W 1W+4W/8 3W 2W 3W 2W 3W 4W 4W 1W+4W 2W 9 2W 5W 2W 3W 3W 5W 4W 2W+5W/10 4W 3W 2W 3W 2W 4W 3W 2W+4W 3W 11 4W 2W 3W 4W 3W 4W 2W 3W/12 5W 3W 3W 2W 5W 3W/2W/*W*7 8 2024 Wind Wind 2.2 2023 2024 1 2023 8 2024 4 2 2023/2023/2/27 CMBS ABS 2024/1/5-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 20212022 2023 202401000200030004000500060002024.1 2024.2 2024.3 2024.4 2024.5 2024.6 9 2023/4/28 2023/7/21 2023/8/25 2023/8/25 2023/8/31 9 25 2024/4/30 2024.04-05 2024.04-05 2024.04-05 2024/5/17 2024/5/17 0.25 2024/5/17 15%25%2024/5/17 3000 4 5 17 3000 1 4 2 3 4 2.3 23Q3 2024 10 3 2019 2024 Q1 2023 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2022 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2021 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2020 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 2019 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 11 3.1 1 2023Q3 2024Q1 GDP 2 4 9 Wind 3.2 2024Q1 2023 8bp 2 2024Q2-Q3 4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%2014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 12 10 Wind 2024Q1 2023 4bp 4 5bp LPR 11 Wind 3.3 2021-2022 2023 2023H1 30bp 50 2023H1 700 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002013-032013-072013-112014-032014-072014-112015-032015-072015-112016-032016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-112024-03%1.00%1.40%1.80%2.20%2.60%3.00%2020A 2021Q1 2021H1 2021Q3 2021A 2022Q1 2022H1 2022Q3 2022A 2023Q1 2023H1 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 13 12 Wind 13 PB-LF 14 Wind Wind 2020 2020-2023 8000 2021 15 16 Wind Wind-50050100150-20-10010203040506070%:0.000.501.001.502.002.50 0.99%1.00%1.10%1.71%1.81%2.62%3.25%4.09%3.99%4.29%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%0500100015002000250030003500 1001502002503000.000.501.001.502.002.502014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-062023-12%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002014201520162017201820192020202120222023 14 1 2023 2023H1 8bp 2 2023 2023 17 Wind 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2022A 2023H1 2023A工商银行 0.91%0.79%0.86%1.70%1.84%1.34%1.83%2.27%2.45%建设银行 0.65%0.58%0.95%0.89%0.67%0.86%1.46%1.66%1.66%农业银行 0.65%0.57%0.76%1.25%0.99%1.04%1.23%1.60%1.40%中国银行邮储银行 1.69%1.61%1.73%2.14%2.25%1.81%1.95%1.83%1.71%交通银行 0.72%0.61%0.78%1.95%2.44%1.92%招商银行 0.64%0.56%0.61%1.08%1.09%1.77%1.68%1.75%兴业银行 0.56%0.61%0.79%4.01%3.94%3.93%浦发银行 1.51%1.59%1.51%3.39%1.82%2.49%2.43%中信银行 2.06%2.02%2.53%民生银行 1.61%1.17%1.20%2.67%2.90%2.98%光大银行平安银行 0.74%0.83%1.31%1.45%1.23%2.68%2.88%2.66%华夏银行浙商银行北京银行江苏银行 1.51%1.67%1.79%上海银行 0.57%0.95%1.15%1.70%1.81%1.21%1.83%2.14%1.76%宁波银行南京银行 0.96%1.32%杭州银行 0.76%0.73%0.69%1.07%1.72%1.10%成都银行 1.92%1.37%0.97%3.04%0.68%0.71%0.43%0.87%长沙银行重庆银行 2.46%1.79%4.42%1.49%1.65%1.31%1.51%3.20%1.99%贵阳银行郑州银行 3.38%3.15%2.44%2.88%1.81%1.08%2.09%2.04%2.11%青岛银行苏州银行 0.95%1.37%1.51%0.93%1.26%1.44%齐鲁银行兰州银行西安银行厦门银行渝农商行 1.49%1.75%2.05%沪农商行青农商行 2.00%1.79%2.04%1.70%1.58%1.71%常熟银行 0.99%0.80%0.78%0.90%0.96%0.79%0.62%0.91%1.40%紫金银行无锡银行张家港行苏农银行江阴银行瑞丰银行国有行 1.09%0.97%1.11%1.60%1.50%1.30%1.60%1.92%1.82%股份行 1.04%0.98%0.97%1.18%2.39%1.18%2.41%2.50%2.56%城商行 1.18%1.26%1.36%1.42%1.68%1.16%1.55%2.37%1.86%农商行 1.40%1.42%1.59%1.00%1.05%0.93%0.62%0.91%1.40%上市银行 1.08%1.01%1.09%1.48%1.65%1.25%2.03%2.22%2.19%个人经营贷 个人消费贷 信用卡公司简称 15 1 2008 12 0%-0.25%2015 12 0%-0.25%2 1995 1%18 10 19 10 Wind Wind 1996 1996 2023 12 24Q1 10 25bp 20 10 Wind 024681012141618198019831986198919921995199820012004200720102013201620192022%10-20246810198019831986198919921995199820012004200720102013201620192022%10 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00%10 16 A 28.5%2023 0.8pct 29.3%2024 6 3 21 2019-2023 A Wind=/2024 2023Q3 22 Wind 27.0%27.5%28.0%28.5%29.0%29.5%30.0%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%16%2014-032014-062014-092014-122015-032015-062015-092015-122016-032016-062016-092016-122017-032017-062017-092017-122018-032018-062018-092018-122019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-03 17 IFRS9 2024Q1 43 389 2.46%2023 0.51pct 2021 23 Wind IFRS9 2023 IFRS9 IFRS17 AFS IFRS9 FVTPL FVOCI AFS FVTPL FVOCI 4 IAS39 IFRS9 IAS39 IFRS9 AFS FVTPL FVOCI FVOCI 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.000200400600800100012001400%18 2024 5 1(601009)(601077)(002142)(601916)2(601328)1 2 3 19 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer