20240531_华安证券_食品饮料行业：现制茶饮投资探讨拥抱极致性价比与下沉时代_38页.pdf

/2555.HK/2150.HK 2024.05.31分析师：邓 欣S0010524010001 18938080357分析师：罗越文S0010524020001 18621987183 23 GMV 500 300/200/100.2-8 TOP3/+2B/IP/:08+/+7+GMV 400 23 PE 11x IPO ZXDWxOtOtQoPsMnOmRoRpO8O8Q9PmOoOtRsOfQoOpReRqQnOaQnNyRMYrQtOuOqMwP 目录 1.2.3.4.目录hbfqDfgNvmWOq37KdJVdDpDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4F5ryV740KqrRS1NvksznF PART 16 23 GMV 500 300+/200/100 10 7%30%20 33%4%7%10%24%30%33%40%52%51%27%31%19%15%13%8%4%3%20%11%0%1%2020 2021 2022 2023 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 233 276 321 340470598755921112213571634296364421462666865109313491658202624442762131174223217271308350391435050010001500200025003000350040004500500017A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 5567028739761359168021192578313037744513CAGR17-22CAGR22-27E20.7%22.3%23.9%23.1%51.7%14.9%24.8%21.9%GMV0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 28E yoy yoy yoy7 40 3 MOMOYO 400+40w 23M9()1 4000 3.462 1200 1.223 EstehIndonesia 900 1.2281488187824502747360542135172628974958822103121180518.2%20.6%23.9%26.2%30.0%32.6%36.4%39.7%42.7%45.5%48.2%50.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02000400060008000100001200014000160001800017A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 28E 2028 5/(/)/Vs+/Vs C 2-8 2028 CAGR17-22CAGR22-28E23.1%18.7%87310851330 144818582137258831343714436551185871270366600738106813481715215326303143371542730200040006000800010000120001400017A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 28E 42135172 CAGR17-22CAGR22-28E19.6%18.3%37.9%21.2%16.1%14.7%23.1%18.7%9 B/TOP5 TOP3 23M9()()yoy1 2-6 701 2.5%2 2-8 695 5.6%3 2-10 675 16.7%4 2-8 644 4.0%5 2-8 346 47.9%23M9()1()74 380002 58 362003 16 2100010 94%4%2%23M9,91%5%4%23,75%5%20%23M9 2B2C 22 23/toB/toC/22Q4 23Q3 VS 2B 73%,5%,14%2332.9%67.1%27.2%15.2%7.6%5.9%3.2%2.8%2.7%5.1%0.4%23A70.3%29.7%6.5%2.8%0.3%15.6%23M9,78%,5%17%23M9 To B ToC/vs vs vs PART 2120102030-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 CoCo1 LINLEE(,)CR4 40.3%2-8 GMV 20%/50%GMV GMV(10)&23M9()GMV()GMV()()1 2-8 331 20.0%52 49.5%29200 6.4%2 10-18 138 8.3%9 8.6%8578 1.9%3 10-22 125 7.6%7 6.7%7500 1.6%4 10-19 72 4.4%5 4.8%7297 1.6%5Coco 10-20 68 4.1%5 4.8%4300 0.9%6 11-20 54 3.3%-7000 1.5%10-28 39 2.3%-1574 0.3%-1653 100%105 100%45.6w 100%1 14-21 230 19.5%12 26.1%13300-2 30-41 192 16.3%4 8.7%6800-3 10-15 39 3.3%3 6.5%5900-4 5-10 15 1.3%2 4.4%2900-1179 100%46 100%-13 wind 26 47 104 136 154 44 56 56 11 36 42 57 16 22 25 25 31 43 43 52 201920202021202223M9 23A23A 30%YOY/21/23 YOY/82%22%121%237%41%31%27%16%34%0%46%34%35%54%20%2020 2021 2022 23M923A23A YOY4 6 19 20 24 8 8 10 2 9 10 13 0.8 1.5 3-0.1 0.2-1.5-4.6 0.2 201920202021202223M9 23A23A 42%202%349%5%2%7%79%48%73%30%189%2020 2021 2022 23M923A YOY14 Takerate/GMV/21-23 12%/3%/9%Take rate/60%vs 56%take rate GMV 52%45%42%40%40%47%37%32%34%39%36%35%20202021202223M9 23A36%34%32%28%30%30%28%31%37%36%34%34%22%27%31%63%62%67%67%67%201920202021202223M9 23A23A17%14%18%15%16%17%14%19%19%25%23%22%5%7%13%0%1%-3%-11%0.4%201920202021202223M9 23A23A121 220273 622 122 230233 134 421 114 250239 114 355 2021 2022 23M923A23A23A15+DT 12 17 S/+0 0 0 SKU,114,43%,111,41%,25,9%,19,7%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4 23M9 23M9 23 23M9 16 SKU/SKU 49 2-9 4 2 6 9.1/4.4/3.3 23M9 CR3 29%147 35%5 23M9 47/SKU 35 10-21 10 20 17 3.1 1.3 51%38%11%111 40+50%12 23M9 107/+3/SKU 45 10-22 18 13 16 6000 23 CR3 19%52 4 23 48/SKU 46 11-20 18 15 17-117 9 100+SKU 19 15-24 16 23A 2.3 30%+/SKU 79 13-28 18 19 19 0.5 0.14 50 4.1 49+/SKU 81 9-28 21 19 19 73%5%21%23H124(2020)21 5 5.6 67 SKU/+30%17 8-20%/3/11/2 2021 18-19/20%/30-40%latepost/10.3 1.9 0.2 0.4 8.0 17.0 2.3 1.5 0.7 10.2 30.1 4.2 2.4 0.7 14.2 2021 2022 23M923A 23A/2678669384338210297911451062923021180 2000 4000 6000/9.2 0.1 2.4 9.5 1.7 0.7 0.5 7.5 12.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 4.5 13.2 2.6 1.0 0.2 5.4 2020 2021 2022 23M923A23A18/12()60%100%/49%14 90%+23 14 26 30 92 80/4 9%20%21 20 4 13 97%+1 327 IT 302 22 21 23 24 4 21 6 15 8 118 1 22 8/4/9/19 2-3 WMS 2700 24 39 23 11 10 17 500 7000 41 300+7 15 300 165 18 17 10 30+6 200 IT 22 10 6 19 IP/IP IP IP 1.82 0.430.890.921.66 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0.00.51.01.52.0 20/22 1 2/21/22/5%/18%34%25%40%4%80%12%-6%254%279%-14%-8%50%362%114%137%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%-10004000900014000190002400029000 coco 1 LINLEE 7 22 23()(2023)4.5%4.2%5.4%7.7%0.6%1.1%2.4%162814614553842842.2 2.0 1.4 1.7-0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.502000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000 21/32/19 31 31 31 32 31/22/57/49/50%18%31%61%/51%51%41%44%23%20%18%19%26%33%28%53%57%54%18%8%7%12%2%1%0%11%14%18%15%20%21%27%5%3%10%7%7%17%31%20%17%26%22%28%22%32%18%31%22%21%25%22%18%24%26%19%21%18%21%12%33%23%23%29%21%18%6%26.3%33.5%16.3%22.2%10.4%12.1%2.4%23/35-40 50 55 35-40 80-120 70-90 80-100 50-70 180/18 14 17 24 9 15 20 14 15/4 6 6 4 15 7 9 6 13/30 50 40 30 80 60 80 35 150/170 250 240 150 720 320 350 200 510/14 21 20 13 60 27 29 17 43/0.47 0.69 0.67 0.42 2.00 0.89 0.97 0.56 1.42 55%55%57%57%62%60%60%68%73%45%45%43%43%38%40%40%32%27%13%14%14%16%13%13%14.8%15.6%18.6%17%12%11%13%10%12%14%9%10%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%1%3%1%1%5%9%12%12%14%11%12%15%14%16%17%16%14%20%20%15.2%25.4%27.4%/27 42 38 20 140 64 53 51 140/PART 325 20 17-20 14-16 10-13 10 IPO 2008 IPO 65 45%()17%3%2010 IPO 3 2008 IPO 25 20%/18%/16%/12%/5%2013 IPO 3 2017 IPO 2-3 2017 25 2015 21 IPO 51 4 08 17-/.-.LINLEE 26 2022 247 460 GMV 196 252326 38457073296212041501185522722739405999410887342694010002000300040005000600017A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 28E 16805567028739761359211925783130377445135319CAGR17-22CAGR22-28E30.2%24.6%24.7%20.7%20.6%17.5%18.9%15.8%24.8%21.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 28E yoy yoy yoy yoy27/1/15%/0 9.88 3 1 4-10 GMV/50 80-120/80 6 6 90-170 50 40/1.1/0.9/0.7 1.88*3 1.66/6.98+1.5/5 6 0.48/3*1%/1/2%/1%/+2/1%/2.5*4 1.8 4 0.2/2.5*2 2 3 2 1 1 0.5 2 3 3 7 10 13-15 10 16 15+25 5 2-4 4 4 10 5 6 10 10()5+15+10+12 0.2/0.8 1%/12 40 40()21+23+38+21+51.5+39+58+35-40 50 55 40 80-120 70-90 80-10028 23 GMV200 63 5 Cagr20%2022 260 13 20 28 36 20.3%18.7%10.1%5.0%4.7%4.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%22-28E CAGR 7.5%1813322302167 22 22 26 31 37 4350637895116140166455461678192114138167202244288010020030040050060017A 18A 19A 20A 21A 22A 23E 24E 25E 26E 27E 28E 7994108121144163201243293351422494CAGR17-22CAGR22-28E17.8%22.1%15.4%20.9%11.8%11.3%15.6%20.3%GMV29(24 300)(24 100)36kr 4000 1300+2400+11 18.11 28 1000 22 11 6.6 300 100+70+19.8-19 5 4 7 18.11 23.3/13 23.10 24 500 300 25 1(23.12)()18.12 23.12 24 1 23.10 24 25 1 24.2-30/1990 1987 1990-2007 1998 2008-2012 2007 coco ctc 2012-2021 2012+2022 2022 PART 432/IP/IT sku sku sku-IP-33 5.8(3+93%)/7.4(3+146%)24 7000 25 5 26-27 7(2-8)23 GMV 350/GMV 700 GMV 2 7 2 4 600W 50W 2024 423()N N 728 298 2.4 2.4 298 594 226 2.6 2.4 243 3952 1463 2.7 2.4 1618 9815 2869 3.4 2.4 4018 6121 1727 3.5 2.4 2506 1043 186 5.6 2.4 427 2487 432 5.8 2.4 1018 5027 788 6.4 2.4 2058 6568 954 6.9 2.4 2689 12706 1778 7.1 2.4 5201 2465 158 15.6 2.4 1009 140892 30952 4.6 2.4 57673 23()N N 8322 1570 5.30 4.43 1879 1883 425 4.43 4.43 425 20149 6491 3.10 1.75 11509 1301 743 1.75 1.75 743 22639 5688 3.98 1.63 13847 459 281 1.63 1.63 281 89781 17223 5.21 1.93 46417 288 149 1.93 1.93 149 140892 30952 4.55 1.91 73652 34 IPO IPO 21.1 A 23 CPE 233 22.9 A IPO 65 650 20.6/20.10 A/A+6.74 Coatue 51 23.5 A 10 180 24.4 IPO 25 IPO 259 20.11/21.10 A/A+1.28 22.8 B 2.3 24.2 C 1.22 50 21.3 A XVC 21.10 B 3+XVC 20+16.8 A 1+IDG 10 18.4 B 4 19.7 B+90 20.3 C Coatue 160+21.7 D 5 LV 600 17.1/17.7 A/A+0.92 10 18.3 B1 3 60 20.6 B2 2.35 60 21.1 C 1.PAG 104 21.6 IPO 51 IPO 34035 latepost wind 7.4 2.4 2-4+23 200 32 3 1.4/&PE15x 1150+23 GMV108 40 8-10 4000 24 GMV IPO 23 74.5 13.5 9000 40%PE15x 400 23 57 12.6 8500 140 RMB 240529)23 PE 11x 1 2 3/IPO 4 6 300 6 300 5%;6 300-5%5%;6 300 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%300 感谢您的信任与支持！分析师：邓 欣 S0010524010001分 析 师：罗 越 文S0010524020001