20240601_国金证券_传媒互联网行业：消费理性化&AI赋能时代的到来_50页.pdf

2024/6/11 2AIAIAI 20243 45 Wind Refinitiv IDC Rystad Energy 6 Wind Refinitiv IDC Rystad Energy MAU7 Wind Refinitiv IDC Rystad Energy 23Q4 23Q4 24Q1 24 4 46%41%33%8 2016 9 2018 POI LBS 2024 GMV 1000 370+2010 3 2018 8+UGC+VS 1 2 BD 3 3 1 2 3 4 9 Lab POIROI POI VV POI Wind Refinitiv IDC Rystad Energy 10 Lab 2023 3 Wind Refinitiv IDC Rystad Energy 11 GMV TEMU 450 GMV 5 12 GMV 13 TEMU 450 GMV 2024 3 24-25 4562/5935/7268 1366/1759/2315 PE 10.5 8.2 6.2X 5-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.003,500.002022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04:YoY 14 UE 2024 24-26 3316/3816/4389 Non-GAAP 317/463/605 PE 20.2 13.8 10.6X 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%010002000300040005000600070002021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4即时配送交易笔数（百万单）同比%DAU AI AI 1516 2022 4 2022 4 2022 7 2023 6 550 23 10-50 2021 2024 4-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0100200300400500600700800900中国游戏市场实际销售收入（单位：亿元）同比%0204060801001201401601802021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03取得版号游戏数量170.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%024681012142022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06用户使用总时长 占手机游戏行业比例 2022-06 2023-06 APP Questmobile 18 2019 0246810121416182001002003004005006007002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%051015202530354045502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24%19 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 19 19 19 24 5 29 17 30 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20241 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 20 AI 4 TOP50 AI/AI Infra TOP50 AI AI 2153.7166.9683.43103.87129.25160.73199.75248.09307.93381.98473.5320232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E 2023-2033 AI Precedence Research AI 1.0 2.0 3.0 AI GPU NPU AI BT/Wi-Fi/4G Wi-Fi/4G/APP AI APP AI+APP+AI+AI+AI 22VPA/Siri Google Assistant Cortana Alexa VPA AI 1 23 45 IP AI 23 Character AI AI Character AI AI 2.4 AI TOP5 AI AI Character GeneratorTOP52023 92023 112023 12 2024 1 2024 2 2024 3 2024 41 Character AICharacter AICharacter AI Character AICharacter AICharacter AI Character AI2 Janitor AI Janitor AI Janitor AI Janitor AI Janitor AI Janitor AI Janitor AI3 Dreamgf.ai Dreamgf.ai SpicyChat.AISpicyChat.AISpicyChat.AISpicyChat.AISpicyChat.AI4 Kupid AI Kupid AI CrushOn.AI CrushOn.AI CrushOn.AI CrushOn.AI CrushOn.AI5 Replika Anima Dreamgf.ai Dreamgf.ai Dreamgf.ai Dreamgf.ai Dreamgf.ai AI TOP5-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-240-180-120-600601201802403002023 6 2023 7 2023 8 2023 9 2023 10 2023 11 2023 12 2024 1 2024 2 2024 3 2024 4 Character AI 24 1 2 3 AI 1 2 3”IP IP 25 Q1 DNF 5.21 Q2 DAU DAU 26 2024 50%2024 24-26 6769/7471/8167 Non-GAAP 2043/2289/2569 PE 15.6 13.9 12.4X 27/2MMOMMOMJH-HM-LZ-Project RO-HY-XA-WL-LZG-U-/DLSLG+2024LOASLG+2024 23 02468101Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23Age of Origins War and Order28 24 4 324 4 308.10 6.824 7 42 392242424 14 2930 ifind 23 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%23 31 ifind-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%-600-3000300600900120015002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 yoy-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-240-180-120-600601201802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 yoy-10%0%10%20%30%-800801602402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 yoy 32 ifind 0200040006000800010000120000246810121416 050010001500200025002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 33 ifind 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 40.35%37.49%43.08%39.86%39.34%43.75%42.26%39.27%41.28%45.09%52.65%53.74%27.92%30.12%22.11%35.17%78.53%24.85%30.87%52.02%64.38%53.25%47.79%33.01%35.55%31.28%37.54%40.76%43.25%47.65%47.65%48.43%49.19%88.50%87.29%78.74%77.04%77.01%53.26%32.03%57.14%51.86%52.86%51.99%63.81%39.71%32.50%30.29%30.23%30.04%31.25%20.11%32.29%43.15%41.28%46.89%40.04%30.08%30.55%36.52%36.01%43.94%37.10%53.99%55.02%57.43%57.62%56.82%63.80%51.79%61.12%43.11%30.30%30.08%30.01%30.14%30.24%30.12%34.17%30.46%30.66%30.39%30.70%30.47%10.06%19.80%50.53%31.19%30.29%30.18%30.47%30.15%30.51%10.03%10.23%10.32%34.84%34.58%34.19%34.63%37.67%30.94%25.55%109.26%22.22%62.15%81.44%31.53%31.56%32.36%39.98%53.08%50.66%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2020 2021 2022 202334 58%100%51%35“”5 83.8%84.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 7-2021 12 0%5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy-yoy-36 37 ifind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 020406080100120140160 24 AI 2024 3839 2023 1 23 Stability AI Stable Diffusion DMCA 2023 1227 OpenAI 2024 315 Bard Gemini AI 2.5 2023 8 152024 3 13 EU AI Act AI 2024 4 9202440 2023 112023 2 24 AI Stable Diffusion”AI 3 25000 11 275002024 2Tab AI AITab()Tab TabAITab24 22024 4AI APP24 4 23 AIAI AI2541 Shutterstock AIShutterstock Shutterstock AI 2023 2024Q11.37/0.40 15.7%/18.9%Shutterstock 0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%0204060801001201401602021 2022 2023计算机视觉数据授权相关收入（单位：百万美元）同比%AI 42 Reddit OpenAI Reddit 23 6 Reddit 23 7 1 API Reddit 24 2AI 2.03SaaS 24 5 16 Reddit OpenAI OpenAI RedditOpenAI Reddit API Reddit AI OpenAIReddit 23 6 Reddit 7 1APIReddit API 6 30 1000 API 0.2424 5 16 RedditOpenAIChatGPTReddit43 1.0ChatGPT GPT4 GPT4-V 2.0ChatGLM ChatGLM2 ChatGLM3GPT4 Turbo Qwen-VLLlama2Llama3GeminiGPT4o 2.544 AI 5 150 2 TB/AIAI AI 120 5 7 15 30AIGC CDramarightsAI AI AI/4 AI 45 AI TurblAIAIAI 1.AI 2.AI 3.4.5.6.AI1.2.3.AI 1.2.3./VP 1.Ai 2.3.4.Ai 5.4647 wind 5 29 wind Non-GA A P/Non-GAAP/Non-GAAPPE2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E609,015 676,887 747,079 816,725 9.82%11.14%10.37%9.32%157,688 204,326 228,924 256,892 36.35%29.58%12.04%12.22%20.18 15.57 13.90 12.38 247,639 456,160 593,506 726,761 89.68%84.20%30.11%22.45%67,899 136,626 175,919 231,464 71.60%101.22%28.76%31.57%21.14 10.51 8.16 6.20 276,745 331,635 381,602 438,850 25.82%19.83%15.07%15.00%23,253 31,708 46,272 60,505 722.48%36.36%45.93%20.76%27.51 20.17 13.82 10.57 4,295 5,205 5,971 6,608 15.30%21.18%14.72%10.67%1,462 1,789 2,065 2,297 42.58%22.39%15.44%11.23%16.45 13.09 11.34 10.20 5,962 7,023 8,226 9,346 24.06%17.79%17.13%13.61%887 1,059 1,261 1,421 63.84%19.41%19.07%12.64%19.56 15.66 13.15 11.68 1,546 2,590 2,965 3,296 104.74%67.56%14.49%11.17%418 990 1,103 1,217 158.62%136.85%11.41%10.42%57.22 26.15 23.47 21.25 1,608 2,727 3,510 4,041-20.06%69.58%28.72%15.13%-553 294 480 578-631.86%153.14%63.54%20.34%n.a 29.11 17.80 14.79 10,084 11,093 11,774 12,459-1.49%10.01%6.14%5.82%1,967 1,806 1,961 2,075 1.88%-817.00%8.58%5.81%8.20 6.72 9.08 11.73 11,244 11,935 12,824 13,821-3.79%6.15%7.45%7.77%936 798 915 1,033 32.21%-14.68%14.59%12.94%14.77 17.74 15.48 13.71 9,365 10,219 11,061 11,953 3.35%9.12%8.24%8.06%1,284 968 1,090 1,223 34.39%-24.60%12.61%12.24%9.07 12.37 10.98 9.78 781 938 1,061 1,175 11.94%20.12%13.15%10.74%146 170 198 225 46.79%17.00%15.97%14.00%70.73 51.00 43.97 38.57 2,267 2,554 2,880 3,147-8.39%12.63%12.76%9.28%382 449 515 564-5.08%-17.40%14.82%9.36%29.20 30.33 26.42 24.16 2,800 3,125 3,412 3,681-28.33%11.59%9.18%7.88%450 600 608 684-13.55%33.32%1.33%12.50%30.07 19.53 19.28 17.14 48“”“”“”C3(C3 49