20240531_东方证券_化工行业：把握新时代下生产力与生产关系再定价机会_26页.pdf

|1 2.0 2 3(601966)(601058)(002984)(601500)(301216)(002493)(601233)(603225)(600309)(600096)(002895)(000902)(002170)(002539)(002312)(000792)(002545)(600075)(601568)(002386)(601678)/2024 05 31 021-63325888*7504 S0860517120003 021-63325888*2504 S0860519090003 S0860523080005 2023-11-17 2023-11-09 2 1.5 2.5 2.1 2.0.6 2.2.8 2.3.11 3.14 3.1.15 3.2.19 3.3.21 4.22 5.23 XVDWzQsPsRmNqOtQsPrOoP9PaO7NsQoOoMnReRqQqOiNrRnO8OnNuNvPmNrMvPoMqQ 3 1 2024-5-26 5 2 ROA.6 3 2024 4 8.6 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.9 12/.9 13 PTA/.9 14/.9 15 2020.10 16 2023.10 17/.10 18.11 19.11 20.11 21/.12 22/.12 23“”.13 24.14 25.15 26.16 27 22.17 28.17 29.17 30/.17 31.17 32.18 33/.18 4 1.10 2 2022-2023.13 3.13 4 2024 1-3.15 5/.19 6 PVC 2024 1-3.19 7 PVC.20 8 PVC.20 9 PVC.21 10.21 11 MDI.21 12/.22 13 Sadara.22 qOX1r9HRGJM/ZCuWHHQS0pDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD58djCiLDeEJ/SwkQ0G8B4h 5 1 2004 2014 2022 21 24 60%1 1 2.0 2 3 2 2 1 2024-5-26 0510152025302015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 6 2.1 2.0 2 ROA 3 2024 4 8 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7 2022 5971 329 13%2015 2021 33%44%17%22%2022 4 5 6 7 40111000 40112000 2.0 2.0 0501001502002503003500102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0 8 1.0 2.0 8 9 USITC USITC 4011201015 4011205020 10 European Commission 40112090 40121200 2.2 2023 1661 1310 2022 35%2023 42%7 2023-2024 4 6.6%24.2%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 01020304050602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 9-11 12/CCF Bloomberg 13 PTA/14/Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg Wind 2015 2016 2014 20%2014-2023 5.7%1.1%14/2023 14%37%0%10%20%30%40%50%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0400080001200016000200002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 050010001500200025002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 CFR02004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024MEG MEG CFR 10 15 2020 16 2023 CCF 1/(2010 2023)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2015)(2015)(2016)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2020)(2020)(2024)(2024)2023 2000/-550/515 2024 500 Indorama 2023 110/3.08 17/Wind 2023 12 30 PET XJP,43%,17%,17%&,14%/,10%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 11 65%3.29 SSP 18 19 CCF 2.3 10 21 2021 20 2022 0204060801001201401602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230123456789102012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 12 21/Wind 22/Wind 2024 1 2 4 SASREF 50%SASREF SASREF SASREF-50000500010000-:(FOB):(50ppm):(FOB,):(50ppm):(0#):-5000050001000015000-:FOB:(95#):FOB:(95#):(95#):13 23 SASREF 5500/2750/SASREF SASREF 734/SASREF 23 200%SASREF 2 2022-2023 2022 2023 1071 1224 1536 1571 336 368 404 421 15 13 328 354 35 48 2016 2030 1 75%2 5.7%3 GDP 60%4 50%3 SASREF 1981 2019 50%SHARQ 1981 50%Aramco-Mobil 1985 50%YANPET 1985 50%KEMYA 2012 50%Petro Rabigh 2005-37.5%SATORP 2008-62.5%14 Amiral 2018 62.5%Sadara 2011 65.0%YASREF 2012 62.5%YASREF+2023 SASREF 2024-50%2012 YASREF 1 2017 2 2016 2016 3 SASREF 50 50 50 50 50 50 3 24 Wind 051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15 4 2024 1-3 2019 1.9 4.3 2.2 1.2 2020 1.6 7.2 5.0 1.8 2021 7.9 4.9 6.1 2.7 2022 7.8 6.0 9.5 4.3 2023 12.4 6.5 4.8 7.5 2024-3 3.1 2.2 0.9 2.5 Wind 3.1 21 22 2000 20%25 0501001502002503003500200400600800100012002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/92023/112024/12024/32024/5(/)CFR(7072%BPL)(/)16 26 Wind 80%2022 CR10 50%22 1200 7.2 22 700 90 22 300 150 22 02000400060008000100001200014000160002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 17 27 22 28 29 Wind 23 46%24 1-4 30%30/31 12.04%6.84%6.49%5.02%4.28%2.58%2.48%2.29%2.17%1.78%54.03%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001,0002020 2021 20222023 1-5 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0200400600800100012000100020003000400050006000 60%():(60%):FOB/01002003004005000501001502002019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1 2023/1 2024/1 18 32 USGS 2022 35 K O 31%21%11%64%3.5 10%Bloomberg 67.26%1%N 46%N 11%P2O5 44%55%K2O 60%2024/5/17 2319/46=50 2911/55=53 2360/60=39 48 9 500-600 23 CFR307/33/Wind 187138175 19134494218226225171300159326352207240182109897965 7978242013426117162020040060080010001200140019 20 21 22 23 24 1-4 020406080100N P K 19 5/CFR 2010 350 2011 400 2011 470 2012 470 2013 400 2014 305 2015 315 2016 219 2017 230 2018 290 2019 2020 220 2021 247 2022 590 2023 307 3.2 PVC 6 PVC 2024 1-3 2018 16.6 3.8 1.7 22.1 29%2019 9.8 4.1 3.9 17.8 25%2020 5.7 8.5 1.9 16.2 19%2021 34.8 27.2 7.0 69.0 33%2022 66.7 24.7 14.5 105.9 44%2023 114.8 15.7 15.2 145.8 53%2024-3 32.0 5.4 3.8 41.1 55%Wind 20 PVC 80%5%150 PVC 35 4-5 7 PVC 2016 2326 1669 72%118 7%2017 2406 1833 76%109 6%2018 2404 1890 79%77 4%2019 2518 2011 80%71 4%2020 2664 2074 78%86 4%2021 2713 2143 79%209 10%2022 2810 2090 74%240 12%2023 2881 2120 74%274 13%Wind 8 PVC 80 20 40 40 40 40 2023 260 30 2023Q3 30 2023 2024 60 50 2024 40 2024 30 2024 2025 120 40 2025-PVC-PVC-PVC-PVC 21 9 PVC 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 5873 6023 6104 6236 6696 7006 1.2%2.5%1.3%2.2%7.4%4.6%60*90 300 180 40 3.5 50 130 35 35 11 38 10 81 131.5 460 310*10 2018 349.30 209.18 1,579.19 7,166.13 2019 344.58 227.42 1,622.10 7,503.43 2020 325.73 235.41 1,581.95 7,779.06 2021 330.02 244.86 1,714.76 8,534.25 2022 340.69 259.98 1,857.99 8,848.71 2023 346.71 265.41 1,928.59 9,272.54-0.7%26.9%22.1%29.4%Wind 3.3 MDI TDI 2020 MDI MDI 7 MDI 90 20 2020 MDI 11 MDI 2014-2020 218 65 30%2020-2025E 198 160 81%2016 2019 2022 2022 2016 173%22 2022 2016 53%21%12/2016 2019 2022 MDI 8779 8983 10466 TDI 13482 8922 12328 PO 3560 3697 3620 191 389 830 77 150 209 40%38%25%12%13%7%870 970 1334 241 215 190 28%22%14%16%15%12%Wind 2023 ADNOC ADNOC ADNOC ADNOC Sadara MDI ADNOC MDI TDI 13 Sadara 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 46.8 74.4 54.9 57.2 102.9 93.3 56.7-26.9-22.8-79.6*-18.2 16.9-11.1-20.0-57%-31%-145%-32%16%-12%-35%*2019 Q4 50 4 23 5 1 2 3 24 1%(002984)(601058)1%25 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer