20240529_华福证券_户外行业：健康与情绪价值开启内需新篇章_26页.pdf

户外行业深度：健康与情绪价值，开启内需新篇章 S0210524040004|2024 05 29 华福证券 2 18 21 687 228 181 28%50%1 2&3 X-bionic 华福证券YWDWvMtOtQmNsMmPmRqPmNbRdN8OtRoOmOqMfQmMrPfQnNpM9PrRxOuOrQsPNZnRqO 如何理解当前国内外户外市场 新趋势：泛户外风起，国产份额提升可期 相关标的 投资建议&风险提示目录3 华福证券1 4 20 70 2.0 50%iFinD 010000200003000040000500006000070000800009000019601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022美国韩国日本英国德国法国 GDP 179018601940 Gore-Tex eVent Malden Mills Patagonia Polartec Patagonia Goldwin 80 WTO 华福证券jolh7qxi/E2DhKCdnk8UWpDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD5pzV8Wi98RPYUbm9cks9Fb 1 5 Satista 20 20/21 25%/17%21 687 228 181 3-5 28 47%16 27%8%8%5%4%COCA 2012 2012-2020 7%20 245.2 OIA 50%28%Wind Statista 010002000300040005000 14%14%14%14%13%13%13%12%14%13%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%440460480500520540560580600 yoy%28001600464462279227166户外服饰户外鞋户外背包配件帐篷睡袋爬山%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0501001502002503002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoy 华福证券1.1 6 urban outdoor UrbanOutdoor Top5 4kw 1419%2023 3 GMV 86.7%GMV 63.3%2023&华福证券1.2 7 20232030 11.2%2023 37.4 top3 2021 747.5 63%2025 2483 CAGR 35%22 Top3 2021 Top1 7k%Statista 2021&22%5.2%21.3%25.9%24.8%18.4%4.4%1k 以内1k-3k3k-5k5k-1w1w-2w2w 以上 6995-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 yoy20%12%22%26%5%8%4%2%保温箱帐篷睡袋背包暖炉户外家具户外容器其他%0%20%40%60%80%0100020003000 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2021 2022 华福证券1.3 8 2016 2016-2020 3000 2022/344/39 2018-22 9%2016-22 11%1 9887 25%30%80%eBay%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E yoy_ yoy_ 2021 eBay 24369 220 194 200673363232 226 1990200400600800Keen 21Q3 22Q3+1861734837 33050100150200 华福证券1.4 Amer 9 2023 10 12 1.25 179.2%1%1500-2000 1000-2000 1000 Burton Fischer Amer Salomon Atomic 36 2023 112 Top8%36473976 4106 438638115788795488459800-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020004000600080001000012000 yoy1195144516901915206010452076215419833600-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05001000150020002500300035004000 yoy90%90%80%70%0%20%40%60%80%100%46463 8277.8 23.7%burton 7537 3073.5 8.8%nobaday 7870 1337.5 3.8%salomon 3844 1227.8 3.5%snowboard ws 5218 1171.8 3.4%Nitro 2559 1134.2 3.2%atomic 1284 657.2 1.9%Amerfischer 1222 616.4 1.8%华福证券 如何理解当前国内外户外市场 新趋势：泛户外风起，国产份额提升可期 相关标的 投资建议&风险提示目录10 华福证券2.1 1 11%-1%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy_ yoy_ yoy_%201723 82 161 12%10%0%202023 urban outdoor 1 201723/2.7/0.5Pct 3%/1.2%Nike/Adidas 0.8/0.9Pct 2 2022 Top50 2023 0.7%华福证券2.2 2&12 2023 Top10 Top20 201723/%2022 11 2022 2025 2025 3 Columbia 201723 6.3/0.7Pct 2023 29.76%54.61%69.75%67.18%70.24%45.39%30.25%32.82%0%20%40%60%80%100%15001000-1500 300-1000 0-500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6.3%4.5%3.4%3.0%2.9%6.1%12.6%-0.4%1.8%4.4%6.2%6.2%3.4%3.3%3.7%3.8%3.6%5.3%6.0%3.5%2.6%1.4%1.1%0.9%1.0%2.5%0.8%0.9%0.9%1.0%1.7%2.3%2.2%0.6%0.5%0.5%0.7%1.1%1.7%1.9%Columbia 2.5%2.2%2.3%1.9%1.8%1.9%1.9%-0.3%1.3%1.8%2.0%2.0%2.1%1.8%1.3%1.4%1.7%0.9%1.0%0.6%0.8%1.2%1.5%1.6%0.0%1.2%2.2%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.3%5.0%3.6%2.4%1.9%1.2%1.3%1.0%Timberland 2.9%2.9%2.3%1.8%1.0%1.2%0.9%0.1%-0.1%0.4%0.9%-0.2%0.7%-0.1%0.3%0.4%0.4%-0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%Hoka One One-0.1%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%华福证券2.3 3 13 DryVent Omni-Tech OUTDRY EXTREME Mammut DRYtechnology Marmot MemBrain Patagonia H2No Kailas Filtertec Aerovent pruyoung PA66 Gore-Tex ACTIVE eVent Dermizax Polartec Coolmax 华福证券 如何理解当前国内外户外市场 新趋势：泛户外风起，国产份额提升可期 相关标的 投资建议&风险提示目录14 华福证券3.1&Amer Sports 15+%Amer Sports%Amer Sports Amer Sports PPT-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 FILA 2017 2019 Amer Sports 2024 Amer Sports 201923 2023 187 164 2024/220230/180190 Amer Sports Peak Performance salomon Atomic wilson 11 2023/+45%/+18%/+7%37%/38%/25%EMEA/2023 33%/40%/19%/8%2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1 2446 3067 3549 4369 1183yoy 25.4%15.7%23.1%13%685 951 1096 1593 510yoy 38.7%15.2%45.4%44%28.0%31.0%30.9%36.5%43.1%1092 1236 1417 1668 400yoy 13.2%14.6%17.8%6%44.6%40.3%39.9%38.2%33.8%669 880 1037 1108 273yoy 31.5%17.8%6.9%14%27.4%28.7%29.2%25.4%23.1%EMEA 1080 1226 1271 1450.3 359yoy 13.4%3.7%14.1%1%44.2%40.0%35.8%33.2%30.3%984 1253 1504 1726.8 410yoy 27.3%20.1%14.8%0%40.2%40.9%42.4%39.5%34.7%202 373 524 841.4 310yoy 84.3%40.5%60.6%51%8.3%12.2%14.8%19.3%26.2%180 215 250 350 104yoy 19.7%16.2%40.1%34%7.3%7.0%7.0%8.0%8.8%华福证券3.2 16 iFind%iFind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801001201401602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy OEM/ODM 202022 2023 23+1.4%/-24%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ODM/OEM 265 323 391 372 481 615 716 529yoy 22.0%21.1%-4.7%29.1%28.0%16.4%-26.1%61%63%71%70%75%67%50%36%165 192 159 155 161 306 705 926yoy 16.8%-17.2%-2.5%3.8%90.0%130.4%31.3%38%37%29%29%25%33%49%64%76 84 51 58 86 220 632 840 yoy 10.6%-39.5%14.6%48.2%155.7%187.5%33.0%89 109 109 97 75 86 73 86 yoy 21.3%0.0%-10.5%-22.7%14.9%-14.9%17.0%华福证券3.3 17 iFind%iFind%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006007008009002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-80-60-40-2002040602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy 300+Anemaqen Sanfo KidSanfo 21 X-X-2023 Klattermusen AB%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 210 210 247 222 252 321 321 489yoy 0.1%17.4%-10.1%13.6%27.3%0.1%52.1%60%60%59%55%54%58%57%58%65 60 77 64 74 98 112 188yoy-8.7%28.4%-16.2%15.7%31.9%15.0%67.3%18%17%18%16%16%18%20%22%64 64 69 54 50 62 72 97yoy-0.2%7.8%-21.1%-8.4%25.3%15.6%34.7%18%18%16%14%11%11%13%11%14 17 28 62 48 64 56 72yoy 28.2%60.0%121.1%-22.7%34.9%-13.3%29.9%4%5%7%15%10%12%10%9%44 10 1yoy-77.3%-93.2%9%2%0%华福证券3.4 18 iFind%iFind%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-300-200-1000100200 yoy Toread Toreadkids DiscoveryExpedition 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1,041 1,021 681 908 873 979yoy-1.8%-2.0%-33.3%33.3%-3.8%12.2%52%68%75%73%77%70%220 193 130 197 161 200yoy-16.7%-12.5%-32.8%52.1%-18.6%24.7%11%13%14%16%14%14%60 46 86 117 87 72yoy-29.0%-23.4%86.2%35.6%-25.8%-17.3%3%3%9%9%8%5%653 227 2 0yoy-59.3%-65.2%-99.0%-99.7%33%15%0%0%2.14 3.81 0.68 0.94yoy 78.1%-82.2%39.0%0%0%0%0%8.43 133.35yoy 1482.4%1%10%14.60 19.89 12.29 19.70 10.20 6.23yoy-24.3%36.2%-38.2%60.3%-48.2%-38.9%1%1%1%2%1%0%华福证券3.5 TPU 19 iFind%iFind%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02004006008001,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy TPU SEA TO SUMMIT REI 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 239 313 370 377 432 636 688 515yoy 31.0%18.2%1.7%14.7%47.1%8.3%-25.2%71%74%73%69%74%75%73%63%57 55 65 70 69 111 127 156yoy-3.8%19.0%7.0%-0.8%59.6%15.2%22.5%17%13%13%13%12%13%13%19%28 42 45 64 41 56 75 60yoy 48.4%7.8%41.5%-36.8%37.4%33.8%-19.3%8%10%9%12%7%7%8%7%13 13 28 34 38 40 55 90yoy 0.4%107.0%24.1%12.2%4.7%36.9%64.3%4%3%5%6%7%5%6%11%华福证券3.6 20 iFind%iFind%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 yoy 23 26 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 101 148 205 222 299 544 176 150yoy 46.3%38.1%8.3%34.7%82.3%-67.6%-14.8%49%56%64%70%81%85%64%63%99 107 106 87 60 90 87 72yoy 7.5%-0.5%-18.6%-30.2%49.5%-3.2%-17.1%48%41%33%27%16%14%32%30%3 4 4 7 7 2 10 14yoy 26.3%-6.8%75.6%-3.4%-71.7%419.9%37.8%2%2%1%2%2%0%4%6%华福证券 如何理解当前国内外户外市场 新趋势：泛户外风起，国产份额提升可期 相关标的 投资建议&风险提示目录21 华福证券4.1 22&1 2 X-bionic 3 华福证券4.2 2023 PVC 23 华福证券 24 华福证券 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%25 华福证券 1436 MT 20 200120 华福证券