20240614_东方证券_有色钢铁行业长期投资逻辑专题研究：围绕新“国九条”分红、优特钢与新材料有望迎新机遇_27页.pdf

|1 2 3 2000 2012 10(600282)(000708)(000932)(600019)(300811)(600114)(601137)(688102)(601702)(300337)(688786)(00826)(600456)(688333)(002182)(601677)(600459)/2024 06 14 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 S0860523040001 2024 21 2024-06-03 5 PMI 2024 20 2024-05-30 2024-05-21 2.6 1.1.6 1.2.8.13.18 3.1.18 3.2.19 3.3.20.23.24 XVDWxOrMnOrQsMtQmRpQqR8O8Q9PnPoOoMnRfQoOpRjMqRpQ8OrRzRxNoNyRxNpNtM 3 1 17-22.6 2.6 3.6 4 13-16.7 5 13-16.7 6 13-16.7 7 13-16.7 8 13-16.7 9 23 2024 5 30.8 10 2020.9 11.9 12.9 13.9 14 23 24 5 30.9 15 2%.10 16.10 17.10 18.11 19.11 20 11 21 24 5 30.12 22%.12 23 2021%.13 24 2021%.13 25 22%.14 26 1902-2007.14 27 23.15 28 21.15 29 2008-22.15 30 2008-22 VLCC.15 31 ROE TTM%.16 32%.16 33 2024 6 6.17 34 H100.18 4 35.19 36.19 37 2019-2024.19 38 2022.19 39.19 40 Supermicro.19 41 Novelis.20 42.20 43 14 pro.21 44 iphone 15 pro.21 45 1.5.22 46.22 47.22 1 2023 2024.13 2 2022.16 3.21 ANc8hzxCMcYgczXPL64PiJDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD7OSaoIRdr+wpE1vvbkY1fw 5 2024 4 12 9 2004 2014 10 1 2 3 6 1.1 17-22 24-26 24 25-27 2017 2022 3-5 1 17-22 S&P Global 24-26 24 25-27 3-5 24-26 24 25-27 2 3 S&P Global S&P Global 05001000150020002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0204060801001201401601800100200300400500600()()0200040006000800010000050100150200250300350400()LME(/)()7 13-16 2013 3-5 3 4 13-16 5 13-16 6 13-16 7 13-16 8 13-16 020000400006000080000100000120000 01000020000300004000050000600007000020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 010000200003000040000500006000070000 8 23/2024 5 30 27 10 15 2000 2012 10 9 23 2024 5 30 wind 1.2 1.2.1 2020 18 2023 1340.76 28.4%20 23 01000020000300004000050000 0100002000030000400005000060000 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%9 2376.13 6.59%20 23 476.18 0.65%10 2020 11 wind LME/LME/wind 12 13 wind wind 23/2024 5 30 12 1.69%3.15%1.57%1.55%1.20%1.11%14 23 24 5 30 010002000300040005000020004000600080001000012000:LME():COMEX:LME 134.49 490.99 1,128.48 1,872.59 1,340.76-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%05001000150020002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1,043.42 1,022.67 1,140.56 1,586.53 2,543.80 2,376.13-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 3.15%1.57%1.55%1.20%1.11%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%10 wind 12 139 89 12 25 2%14 3%2024 5 30 8.17%8.14%6.85%6.12%6%15 2%wind=23/2024 5 30 1.2.2 24 25/&16 17 wind 24 1-4 wind=+24 1-4 0246810 12 TTM 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0001999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023:010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0001999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023:11 22 23 117.21%16.33%22 23 312.09 301.58 22 23 554.28 351.20 22 23 832.86 500.39 16 21 18 19 wind wind 21-23 230.03 31.40 22.46 22 23 284.3 141.3 142.9 20 wind-500%0%500%1000%(200)02004006008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-100%-50%0%50%100%05001,0001,5002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 12 23/2024 5 30 12 2.37%3.50%0.78%21 24 5 30 wind 43 26 12 11 2%7 3%2024 5 30 5.4%4.99%4.85%4.54%3.72%22%wind 3.50%0.78%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%12 TTM 0123456 13 50%40%23 2021%24 2021%2023 8.99 2.4%2024 8.83 1.8%2024 1 2023 2024 2023 2024%50600-4.80%48600-4%17200 1.20%17300 0.60%5620 12.40%5840 3.90%4330 5.60%4540 4.80%1500 15.40%1740 16%1625 13.90%1660 2.20%510-1.90%500-2%165-72.50%180 9.10%2400-2%2350-2.10%850-2.90%840-1.20%510-5.60%500-2%54.20%21%10.90%7%2.80%1.40%1.40%0.80%0.40%40%20%17%6%5%2%1%9%14 4550-10.40%4200-7.70%89860-2.40%88250-1.80%25 22%wind 2023 8 30 2 20 11 35%26 27 26 26 1902-2007-60-40-200204060801002022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04:15 Maritime Economics Martin Stopford,27 23 28 21 wind wind 2008 2010 2021 50%16 13%22 44%LNG 22 481 CGT+480%2015 29 2008-22 30 2008-22 VLCC Clarksons Clarksons 02004006008001,0001,2002011-06-302012-06-302013-06-302014-06-302015-06-302016-06-302017-06-302018-06-302019-06-302020-06-302021-06-302022-06-302023-06-30 05,00010,00015,00020,0002020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02:0200400600800100012001400050100150200250VLCC 200,000+dwt LNG CarriersLPG Carriers Containerships 8000+teuothers()0100200300400500 VLCC VLCC 16 2 2022 1 91.92 2 89.52 3 89.29 4 JFE 87.68 5 87.44 6 83.94 7 83.46 8 78.53 9 78.34 10 78.23 11 77.13 12 76.5 13 74.86 14 74.39 15 74.3 16 73.34 17 73.29 18 70.9 19 67.54 20 67.07 21 66.89 22 63.92 ROE TTM 24Q1 ROE TTM ROE TTM 8.63%24Q1 10.3%31 ROE TTM%32%17 wind ROE TTM=/wind PB LF 1.79 PB LF 2.06 PB LF 1.24 33 2024 6 6 wind-30-20-1001020302019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1-505101520252019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 00.511.522.5PB LF 18 3.1 AI CPU GPU NPU ASIC FPGA Blackwell AI 1000W1200W 23 58 DDR5 AI GPU FPGA AI GPU-H100 34 H100 InP 400G 800G 1.6T EMI Socket 5G 19 35 36 37 2019-2024 38 2022 Bishop Associates Bishop Associates 3.2 AI 800W 39 40 Supermicro 0200400600800100012002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E,14.90%,11.90%,6.10%,5%,4.40%,3.60%,2.30%,2%JAE,1.90%,1.70%,0.463 20 Supermicro 2023 3.4 18-21 CAGR 14%Novelis Novelis Novelis 90%21 12 20 41 Novelis 42 Noevlis 3.3 2铸锭压延表面处理生产废料 产品废料切碎、脱层重熔汽车制造成品 21/3.5 1.3 1.7 15 pro 14 pro 99%Magic Vs2 3C 43 14 pro 44 iphone 15 pro 3 iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max iPhone 14 20g Apple Watch Ultra/Ultra 2 49 G Magic V2 91%“”3D Galaxy S24 Ultra 2024 1 Galaxy S24 Ultra iPhone 15 Pro Max Galaxy Watch 5 Pro Find N2 64 1 Galaxy S24 Ultra 2024 1 Galaxy S24 Ultra iPhone 15 Pro Max Find N3 MIM 7%“”Xiaomi 14 Pro Watch 4 Pro 48 22 1.5:1 1.3:1 1.5 45 1.5 46 Wind-1 2025 2%2020 1 AM 60 9.3-20.3kg 100 5.8-26.3kg 47 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.50.0010000.0020000.0030000.0040000.0050000.0060000.0070000.0080000.002021/01 2022/01 2023/01 2024/01/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%010203040506070(kg(kg 010203040500.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%2020 2025E 2030E kg 23(600282)(000708)(000932)(600019)(300811)(600114)(601137)(688102)(601702)(300337)(688786)(00826)(600456)(688333)(002182)(601677)(600459)24 25 信 息披 露 1%(600019)1%26 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer