2022-2023直播电商的本质、天花板及货币化率研究报告.pdf

1 2 GMV/GMV ROI 1 2 3 ROI 1/2 3 2022Q1 23 4 2 VS.GMV 5 1 1 1.1-/-生产商 品牌商 经销商体系 零售商 消费者生产商天猫/京东消费者 品牌商流量费+快递费生产商 消费者 1 vs./vs.1.2 GMV GMV=GMV or 99.99%0.01%010020030040050060070080090010001Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2 0204060801001202018 2019 2020 2021 3 LTM/LTM KOL GMV 1.2 GMV 560 1647 836405 2108281 1280108 541 93950 469976 869 443 2830 561347 3588534 1268 136 1637 93950 1130654 691 25 84 14391 48058 573bilibili71 422 19384 114522 272 149 458 81117 248991 544 1 2021 12 31 701002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021 4 1.3 SKU 5 GMV 15.867.513.162.02 1.951.77 1.71 1.58 1.48 1.44024681012141618 25 2.651.891.81.731.471.241.1 1.080.870.8400.511.522.53 baby 6 TOP10 2022 4 7 TOP10 2022 4 8 TOP10 2021 9 1.3 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 9 GMV GMV 14 GMV 20 GMV 4 37.8724.4610.523.132.36 2.28 2.19 2.111.71 1.580510152025303540 SKU 1 2 1 2/1.4 1049.5%47.5%33.4%32.5%26.7%25.0%22.9%20.9%14.3%0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.659.6%56.0%53.9%43.8%35.1%27.7%22.7%15.3%14.4%12.9%0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 10 2020 11 2020 12 2020 36 2020 1.5/13 38.9%36.2%46.1%39.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%14 2019 1.6/10-20 20-30%GMV/SKU SKU 1 2 3 15 SKU SKU A B C D SKU 16 /1.6 2399104.22581892599992581802399102.1258180050010001500200025003000Red mi K50 250ml*24 ARDQ003 17/2022 5 30 4%18 2022 131.7/2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 E 286,588 315,806 347,327 377,783 408,017 391,981 440,823 467,272 YoY 10%10%9%8%-4%12%6%14%16%21%24%26%30%31%32%38,773 51,556 71,751 90,065 106,324 117,601 136,655 147,191 YoY 33%39%26%18%11%16%8%GMV 29,066 37,503 52,028 69,686 88,190 108,691 132,351 152,920 YoY 29%39%34%27%23%22%16%24,440 30,920 37,670 48,200 57,270 65,890 74,940 83,649 YoY 27%22%28%19%15%14%12%4,626 6,582 12,945 16,769 20,854 26,125 32,970 40,430 YoY 42%97%30%24%25%26%23%1,412 4,716 10,066 16,676 24,441 28,840 YoY 234%113%66%47%18%GMV 696 8,812 15,600 21,000 YoY 1166%77%35%1%7%11%14%100 5,000 8,800 12,000 YoY 4900%76%36%596 3,812 6,800 9,000 YoY 540%78%32%2 GMV 2、快手 vs.抖音GMV 增长逻辑探讨2.1 GMV GMV GMV GMV 2021 GMV 6800 98.8%2021 GMV 8800 6300 GMV 3%1.05%10%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000 GMV GMV 19 2021 GMV 20 2021 2021 21 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2.2 GMV=GMV=2021 60-70 70-80 SKU 154 149 132 120 109 98 97 97 020406080100120140160180FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 23 1Q22 1Q22 2.1 2021 GMV 6718 6300 QuestMobile(+2021 MAU 6.2 8.1 GMV 010020030040050060070080090010001Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 22 MAU 2.2 GMV=GMV=MAU=24/24 GPM(25 2.2 GMV=GMV=2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q1 GMV 2021Q1 GMV 2021Q3 9 70%ARPU 2021Q4 2022Q1 80%2022 3 /80%/90%/2.3 GMV 26 89%91%90%91%91%89%88%86%86%85%86%86%88%88%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%27/MAU%3、从佣金和广告两个角度看直播 电商的 货币化 率3.1 FY2012 1.92%FY2021 4.08%2.22%2.66%GMV 8 1.1pct 28 29 1.92%2.40%2.49%2.40%2.53%2.96%3.34%3.62%3.74%4.08%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY20212.66%2.22%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020,=+/GMV3.2 GMV 5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%/5%5%5%/5%5%5%5%5%5%/5%5%5%/2%2%2%/2%2%2%/4%4%5%/4%4%5%/4%4%5%2%2%3%/2%2%2%/2%2%2%3C 2%2%2%2%2%2%/MID 2%2%2%4 GMV 3.2 GMV/1/SKU 2 34.0%8.6%7.3%7.1%6.1%4.7%4.4%3.8%3.1%2.9%2.8%2.6%3C10.5%6.9%7.0%4.6%4.4%4.2%4.1%3.9%3.8%3.2%2.8%2.5%2.5%2.4%2.4%2.4%36.23%17.97%11.91%6.71%3.67%3.66%2.97%2.37%2.21%2.12%GMV 30 GMV 2022.04 31 GMV 2022.05 32 GMV 2022.03 3.2 ROI ROI=/GMV ROI=GMV/=ROI 1 2 3.80%3.55%4.12%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%2018 2019 2020 2021 33 2018=FY2019 34 b c),b c 3.2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%35 2019 Wind 2022 36 2021 4-11 +ROI ROI ROI GMV ROI ROI 3.2 37 2021 9-11 GMV GMV 7/7 GMV 37 N=2313)27+-CPM 43%ROI ROI 38 CPM 39()3.2 283.3 1 2 10-20%ROI 2021 GMV 75%85%ROI 40 75%85%0%20%40%60%80%100%41 2021/GMV 29 GMV GMV GMV 42 43 44 APP 303.3 3.4 ROI 45=+=+50%46 APP 31 1/2 47 2022+1 2 GMV 2022 324、投资建议3334-W 2022 28%2022Q1 DAU MAU 3.45 5.97 17.0%15.0%DAU 128.1 29.0%2022 DAU 12%14%28%DAU 66.7117.1175.6264.6308.2343.9362.8375.476%50%51%16%12%5%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050100150200250300350400 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024EDAU yoy%52.764.974.687.3111.5127.6135.9142.023%15%17%28%14%6%4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%020406080100120140160 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E yoy%35-W 2022Q1 8.2%78 7.8%2022Q1 114 yoy+32.6%2021Q1 12 54.6%19 GMV 2022Q1 1,751 47.7%2022 23%/8%/41%19%390.6 1665.1 7418.5 21854.5 42665.5 52619.9 65325.4 75124.2 326.3%345.5%194.6%95.2%23.3%24.1%15.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%350.0%400.0%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E yoy%7,949.018,615.131,442.333,209.1 30,995.2 33,597.5 34,605.4 35,297.5 134.2%68.9%5.6%-6.7%8.4%3.0%2.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E yoy%36-W 2022Q1 DAU 41.7%YoY+0.63pct 45.0%YoY-23.5pct 16.7%YoY+0.02pct 3 2022-2024 976.13/1143,86/1288.09-123.85/-33.99/27.55 2022/5/25 1=0.8494 2022 2,610.805,802.2014,103.57 23,814.64 34,029.71 41,683.62 54,274.49 66,220.22 28.6%36.1%40.5%42.0%43.1%47.4%51.4%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,359.64,262.19,865.026,614.7 44,175.9 41,649.7 42,115.9 40,002.2 16.3%21.0%25.2%45.3%54.5%43.1%36.8%31.1%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E/5、风险提示3738 1 2 3 4 5 GMV 1 2 3