2022-2023年房地产热点解析报告.pptx

2022-2023 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 22-25/Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 1 Q1 wind 6 2022 5 1.1 32%7pp 1.1 38%9pp 6 4764 51%5 6pp 8311 59%43%5 17pp 6 35-5%+69%-12%+120%+1%+66%-17%+48%CRIC 6 30+31%-38%+85%-17%26+24%-41%wind 17%9%-7%-19%-16%-23%-16%-18%-19%-26%-47%-38%0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 YOY 0%-14%-14%-36%-30%-39%-36%-41%-47%-53%-59%-59%-43%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%30%16000 20%14000 10%12000 0%10000-10%8000-20%6000-30%4000-40%2000-50%0 YOY-5%-12%1%-17%-38%-17%-41%69%66%48%31%85%24%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%160%Wind 35 120%30 2 Q1 wind 4.90%6.10%5.90%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%0.72%0.05%300%6.5%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%2020-05 54.01%2020-11 2021-05 2021-11 2022-05()1 2022 5 0.72%0.05%54.01%5 5.9%2021 9 2 21 3 Q1 wind 103 4.44 4.42 5.09 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.39 6.0%4.25 5.00%-0.15%4.25%-0.65%4.80%-0.15%4.25%-0.95%4.65%-0.35%4.25%-0.15%4.75%-0.15%4.45%-0.35%4.45%-0.55%4.25%-0.45%4.25%-0.55%4.25%-0.65%4.80%-0.40%4.25%-0.45%4.45%-0.15%4.55%-0.15%4.25%-0.15%4.70%-0.45%4.25%-0.35%4.25%-0.95%6.5 4.5/2022 3 1 LPR 3.7%3.55%5 LPR 4.65%4.45%103 6 4.42%5.09%2016 4.25%4 29 4 Q2 wind 80.48 0.45%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 11 47.1%250%200%150%160.5 100%50%0%-50%-100%400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 21 1 21 4 21 7 21 10 21 13 21 16 21 19 21 22 21 25 21 28 21 31 21 34 21 37 21 40 21 43 21 46 21 49 21 52 22 3 22 7 22 10 22 13 22 16 22 19 22 22 22 25 6 21 2022 4 5 4 0.45%11 2022 24 6 6 6 12 47.1%2022 26 6 20 6 26,11 160.5 3.1%8.1%10%3-6 5 22-25/Q3 8670 12226 12066 12934 14577 9370 9652 8524 8978 8452 11007 5849 5795 4900 5217 8311 6851 7109 9037 7809 9049 12872 71%9863 166%59%34%18%0%-14%-14%-36%-30%-39%-36%-41%4635-47%-53%-59%-59%-43%-27%-26%6%-13%7%17%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 YOY Q4 21 7-12 9000+22 1-5 5000+6-12 9000+7 2022&19151 19227 15231 16925 22398 13499 12616 15748 12390 14482 20263 15459 14196 8135 10547 14766 11813 12049 15061 12802 14594 20432 133%58%32%17%9%-7%-19%-16%-23%-16%-18%-19%-26%-47%-38%-34%-12%-4%-4%3%1%1%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 YOY 6 22-25/Q3 2005 5.4-1.7-1.59-6.81-5.34-2006 6.2 14.8%2.1 23.5%1.94 22.0%7.93 16.4%5.58 4.5%2007 7.7 24.2%3 42.9%2.53 30.4%9.54 20.3%6.06 8.6%2008 6.6-14.3%2.5-16.7%3.12 23.3%10.26 7.5%6.65 9.7%2009 9.5 43.9%4.4 76.0%3.62 16.0%11.64 13.5%7.27 9.3%2010 10.5 10.5%5.3 20.5%4.83 33.4%16.36 40.5%7.87 8.3%2011 10.9 3.8%5.9 11.3%6.18 28.0%19.12 16.9%9.26 17.7%2012 11.1 1.8%6.4 8.5%7.18 16.2%17.73-7.3%9.94 7.3%2013 13.1 18.0%8.1 26.6%8.6 19.8%20.12 13.5%10.14 2.0%2014 12.1-7.6%7.6-6.2%9.5 10.5%17.96-10.7%10.75 6.0%2015 12.8 5.8%8.7 14.5%9.6 1.1%15.45-14.0%10-7.0%2016 15.7 22.7%11.8 35.6%10.26 6.9%16.69 8.0%10.61 6.1%2017 16.9 7.6%13.4 13.6%10.98 7.0%17.87 7.1%10.15-4.3%2018 17.2 1.8%15 11.9%12.03 9.6%20.93 17.1%9.36-7.8%2019 17.2 0.0%16 6.7%13.22 9.9%22.72 8.6%9.59 2.5%2020 17.6 2.3%17.4 8.7%14.14 7.0%22.44-1.2%9.12-4.9%2021 17.9 1.9%18.2 4.8%14.76 4.4%19.89-11.4%10.14 17.9 2022E 15.5-13.7%15.0-17.6%14.54-1.5%15.37-22.7%8.58-15.4%2022E 15.8-11.9%15.3-15.7%14.81 0.3%16.18-18.6%8.80-13.2%2022E 15.1-15.6%14.5-20.2%14.26-3.4%14.78-25.7%8.41-17.1%1 7-12.5%8-4.5%Q4 0-13.7%-17.6%2 7-8%Q3-11.9%-15.7%3 7-16.5%8-9%0-15.6%-20.2%2021-2022 7 22-25/Q3 13.5 14.3 2035 75%80%1.03pp 2019 39.8 0.8 0.65 2019 2020 209 2018 1/3 2021 3 210 100 96%5%4%2020*=141212*1.03%=1454*=1454*40/=58179 2025 90220+1454*5=97490 2025*=97490*0.65/=63369*=210*100/=21000 58179+63369+21000=142548*=142548*5%=7127 142548-7127=135420 6.8 6.2 7.3 11.0 12.6 13.9 15.5 16.3 13.2 14.2 14.2 13.9-8%17%9.9 36%11%15%10%11%5%-19%8%0%-2%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0 5 10 15 20 YOY 8 Q4 wind 1-5 28%46%2-5 838 501 427 623 42%41%57%43%40%46%2-5 269 303 283 434 27%1%28%40%28%2022 1-5 3.5%3.7%4.2%4.7%3.8%15.8%12.5%12.2%7.4%4.2%3.2%4.0%3.2%3.5%3.7%4.2%4.7%3.8%0%10%15%20%25%22.9%0%17%-2%-11%21%0%24%-4%-27%-1%-28%-40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%5%-50%0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 YOY-32%-18%3%-14%-2%-24%-13%-33%-42%-41%-57%-43%10%3500 0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0()YOY 9 Q4 100%80%60%40%20%0%100%80%60%40%20%0%2022 6 7 15 11 5 4 4 7 3 5 3 2 2 3 5 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2021%2022%2022%2022 50 20 10 0 33 25 32 6 83 12 0 6 47 0 14 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 50 100 2021%2022%2022%15.4%5%15.4%8 15%11.2%5%83%22 17 50%100%9 5 9 50%2022 5 5 1 19 50%50%75%10 Q5 wind 08-09 11-13 14-16 08-09 11-13 14-16 1 08-09 11-13 14-16 2/14 3/13 12/22 25%20%23%2 08-09 11-13 14-16 12 12 14 99.6%49.5%44.1%70%24%88%11 Q5 wind 8 8 4 18%8 15 2022 4 53%21-22 4 注：央 国 企 指 数 包 含 保 利 发 展、招 商 蛇口、华发股 份、建 发股 份、华 侨 城A、绿 地控股、中 国 海 外 发 展、华 润 置 地、中国金 茂、越 秀地 产、万 科A、绿 城 中 国、金地集团、首开股份、中交地产等15 家 房企（央国 企 及混 合 制房企）2 3 12 8 14 13 22 0 10 20 30 21-22 08-09 11-13 14-16 17%20%53%70%24%5%88%0%50%100%21-22 08-09 11-13 14-16？12 Q6 4 3 wind 08-09 11-13 14-16 08-09 11-13 14-16 08 11-13 3 14-16 4 08-16 08-16 Q10 14-16 4 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%YOY YOY 60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%YOY 50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%YOY YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%YOY-30%-20%-10%10%0%30%20%40%50%YOY YOY 13 Q6 wind 1 2 3 180%160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%2008/11 2009/2 2009/5 2009/8 2009/11 60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%2012/2 2012/5 2012/8 2012/11 2013/2-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2015/2 2015/5 2015/8 2015/11 2016/2-10%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2008/11 2009/2 2009/5 2009/8 2009/11-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2012/2 2012/5 2012/8 2012/11 2013/2 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%2015/2 2015/5 2015/8 2015/11 2016/2 90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2008/11 2009/2 2009/5 2009/8 2009/11 70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%2012/2 2012/5 2012/8 2012/11 2013/2 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%2015/2 2015/5 2015/8 2015/11 2016/2 08-09 12-13 14-16 08-09 12-13 14-16 08-09 12-13 14-16 14 Q7 wind 2022.07 PE PEG 2020/12/9-2021/2/19 2021/2/19-6/30 2021/6/30-2022/6/1 2022/6/1-2021 2022 2020/12/9 2021/2/19 2021/6/30 2022/7/1 22 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 1209.HK 114%14%-29%1%52 37 0.31 0.67 0.96 0.68 0.97-14%124%75%39%6098.HK 37%32%-64%14%20 14 0.68 0.93 1.12 0.40 0.27 81%61%51%51%1995.HK 69%-16%-54%10%21 14 0.65 1.10 0.77 0.35 0.29 123%74%58%48%9666.HK 54%-5%-74%6%10 6 0.49 0.76 0.53 0.14 0.11 127%69%72%56%1516.HK 101%12%-85%13%9 6 0.35 0.71 0.57 0.08 0.09 175%123%108%60%3913.HK 86%2%-75%0%6 4 0.31 0.58 0.23 0.06 0.05 132%75%109%70%0873.HK 6%98%-84%-10%6 4 0.40 0.42 0.48 0.07 0.06 163%80%86%66%3316.HK 15%117%-29%-1%17 11 0.16 0.19 0.42 0.30 0.20 63%91%56%54%2869.HK-4%30%-30%12%22 17 0.68 0.65 0.89 0.62 0.47-1%49%35%35%2669.HK 10%54%13%-7%27 21 0.63 0.70 0.77 0.88 0.65 33%30%31%32%6049.HK 3%-4%-3%-3%27 21 0.99 1.02 0.95 0.92 0.73 49%37%30%29%001914.SZ-25%-5%-1%4%27 20 1.13 0.85 0.48 0.47 0.59-67%52%57%34%1755.HK 16%22%-65%10%9 6 0.42 0.49 0.56 0.20 0.14 85%60%47%45%9909.HK 9%15%-77%-14%8 5 0.53 0.58 0.74 0.17 0.14 34%71%46%40%3319.HK 9%12%-67%1%6 5 0.47 0.51 0.63 0.21 0.15 54%43%31%32%6989.HK 4%-10%-55%3%8 6 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.14 0.14 42%82%56%41%9983.HK 17%4%-58%17%6 4 0.18 0.21 0.31 0.13 0.09-82%44%43%9928.HK-6%1%-74%-2%4 2 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.04 0.05 52%142%78%49%29%21%-51%0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 67%75%59%46%1 20-21 100%37%69%54%86%2 21 2-21 6 100%30%54%-4%10%3 21 6-22 6 13%-3%-1%-29%4 22 6-22 7 14%10%6%PEG 0.27 0.29 0.11 15 Q8 5 12 1 2 20 3 2014 2014 10 2014 5 16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2022 5 2014 12 wind 16 Q9 2022 6 908.9 51%1-6 4825.5 54.9%2022 6 ABS 52.7%2.9%13.4%31%2022 115 6 121.8 1-6 14.3%-0.2pp-17.4pp 2022 1-6 2518 24.2%500 6 8%42%38%8%4%6 479-10%1-5 2022 1-6 195 90%2022 2-6 15.8 28.6 28.8 0 26.5 30 39.6%-20.4%-32.1%-43.6%-56.9%-19.6%0.2%-53.5%5.9%-29.0%-49.6%33.5%-0.1%-80%-60%-40%0%20%0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 29%-46%-93%12%-77%-97%-72%-88%-95%-78%-80%-100%-90%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%-120%0 50 100-20%150 200 250 40%300 60%350 1854 2035 1173 1142 708 532 960 792 482 1051 906 713 909 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 ABS 17 Q9 2022 6 TOP10 71 5 6-8 2022 7-12 3177 1743 800 2022 1-6 448 7-8 6 2022 7 8 9 10 11 12 7 8 9 10 11 12 7 8 9 10 11 12 127 0 0 0 90 25 0 0 0 134 43 0 127 0 0 134 133 25 419 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 20 67 0 0 13 0 20 67 0 0 100 0 30 35 25 25 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 35 25 25 1 116 38 23 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 38 23 0 47 5 0 113 0 18 0 10 7 8 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 18 60 10 7 8 103 55 0 0 27 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 27 0 0 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 13 0 25 33 0 23 13 0 25 33 95 0 0 0 11 0 40 19 0 0 0 24 0 19 0 0 11 24 40 95 0 19 13 40 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 19 35 40 0 0 94 0 21 13 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 61 13 0 0 0 74 19 30 0 10 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 30 0 10 27 0 86 15 0 0 15 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 15 40 0 15 0 0 70 6 20 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 7 20 0 19 20 0 7 20 0 66 2 0 5 22 0 0 0 13 13 0 0 0 2 13 18 22 0 0 56 25 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 15 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 15 0 23 10 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 14 16 5 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 16 5 10 0 45 10 9 0 6 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9 0 6 9 9 43 7 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 20 8 0 0 0 35 0 16 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 11 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 372 814 773 512 386 462 420 255 821 550 468 364 494 426 246 259 424 280 108 230 533 338 203 508 114 229 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0)(1239 1019 1058 1024 71 45 45 30 30 24 20 20 20 18 10 15 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 10%8%6%4%2%0%80 60 40 20 0()18 Q10 wind 1983 1986-1989 86.1%GDP 19.2%76%1991 1997 1991 12.8%34.1%30%1 1950-1981 1982 1976 1950-1975 53.4%75.7%1975-2000 2.9 2 1985-1986 1986-1990 3 1986 M1-1987 M2 5 1984-1989 10000 38000 3.8 1980-1990 100 626 4 1984 1985 33.3%1990 78.7%5 1987-1990 30.8 8.5 22.3 10%1989 15.75%30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1 990 1986-1990 1985-1990 CPI 83.8 84.3 84.4 85.0 86.9 89.6 159.4 163.9 172.8 190.1 204.5 233.3 70 120 170 220 270 1985 1990 1986 CPI 1987 1988 1989 22 68 26 164 0 50 100 150 200 250 1984-1990 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.2 1.6 2.82.6 3.9 2.5 5.0 7.8 9.7 9.6 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991()()7 19 Q10 wind 1 1983-1990 67.8%69.7%2020 59.2%2011 74.4%2021 68.3%1971 65 7%10%2020 28.4%2021 65 14.2%2 1990 18.1 2020 33.9 26.7 23.4 1990 139.3%2021 154.8%2021 62.2%1990 68.4%3 GDP 80 1990 77.4%2021 64.7%65%GDP 2021 GDP 8.1%1990 5.3%4 1980-2021 GDP 2000-2021 62.2 154.8 0 50 100 150 200 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 60%2000-2021 64.7%6%4%2%0%8.1%8%14%12%10%16%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%GDP 68.3 0 5 10 14.2 15 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 15-64%:65%20 1 2 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600048.SH 17.42 2.29 2.41 2.61 2.80 7.6 7.2 6.7 6.2 002244.SZ 9.23 0.97 1.12 1.33 1.54 9.5 8.3 6.9 6.0 600153.SH 13.35 2.03 2.23 2.51 2.82 6.6 6.0 5.3 4.7 600325.SH 7.79 1.51 1.70 1.85 1.99 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.9 000090.SZ 6.67 1.03 1.23 1.52 2.02 5.7 5.4 4.4 3.3 002314.SZ 4.04 0.36 0.36 0.43 0.50 11.2 11.2 9.4 8.1 6098.HK 28.55 1.20 1.81 2.57 3.59 33.3 15.8 11.1 7.9 1209.HK 33.33 0.76 1.05 1.35 1.67 41.0 31.6 24.7 20.0 2022 7 4 wind 21 wind 1 6 17 2 2022 6 6 38 70%3 4 4.46%2022-2024 6.9%2022 10 PE 24.10/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 285024 315355 343776 371955 17.19%10.64%9.01%8.20%27388 28790 31219 33565-5.39%5.12%8.44%7.51%EPS 2.29 2.41 2.61 2.80 ROE 12.28%11.62%11.37%11.12%PE 7.6 7.2 6.7 6.2 PB 0.69 0.62 0.56 0.51 2022-2024 4048 4618 5028 5349 30.9%14.1%8.9%6.4%0%10%20%40%0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY 3116 2680 3186 2722-14.0%18.9%-14.6%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2,400 2,600 2,800 30%3,000 3,200 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 10376 13131 15148 16317 9117 8062 7708 7295 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2021 2018 2019 2020 600048 wind 22 wind 1 2022 6 23 6 29%2 2022 6 4 3 4.9%2022-2024 16.5%/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 37976 47089 56564 65130 32.80%24.00%20.12%15.15%3027 3473 4137 4789 30.06%14.72%19.12%15.77%EPS 0.97 1.12 1.33 1.54 ROE 13.16%12.73%13.29%13.47%PE 9.5 8.3 6.9 6.0 PB 0.77 0.68 0.60 0.52 2022-2024 177 127 172 200 347 295 432 469 0 100 200 300 400 2018 2019 2020 2021 850 1121 1364 1691 38.2%32.0%21.7%121.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%500 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2021 2018 2019 2020 YoY 496 710 14,308 50411,653 18,089 782 15,126 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2018 2019 2020 2021/002244 23 wind wind 1 6-20%2187 70%2 LIFT 3 4.5%-5.0%2022-2024 11.7%570.77 19.17/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 707844 810313 901145 975783 63.49%14.48%11.21%8.28%6098 6715 7550 8487 35.40%10.11%12.45%12.41%EPS 2.03 2.23 2.51 2.82 ROE 8.01%8.51%8.82%9.12%PE 6.6 6.0 5.3 4.7 PB 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.24 2022-2024 458 736 995 1379 2176 60.8%35.2%38.6%57.7%50%40%30%20%10%0%60%0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 258 608 758 1130 384 229 179 214 80%1600 70%1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2018 2021 2019 2020 759 805 1199 1601 796 710 639 586 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2018 2021 2019 2020 600153 24 wind wind /2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 51241 59545 66285 72399 0.46%16.21%11.32%9.22%3195 3594 3922 4212 10.09%12.50%9.12%7.39%EPS 1.51 1.70 1.85 1.99 ROE 4.88%5.32%5.50%5.65%PE 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.9 PB 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 1 2022 6 41%2 5.8%3 2022-2024 9.7%2022 7 PE 11.90 2022-2024 310 582 923 1205 1219 87.7%58.6%30.6%1.2%0%20%40%60%80%0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 877 750 697 806 544 715 1004 1367 1777 1542 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 160 703 142 27.5%27.4%253 58.3%11.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%3000 100%800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2020 2018 2019 2021 600325 25 wind wind 1 21 900 2 2021 218 122.7%3 1GW 2022-2024 9.8%197.9 7.31/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 11180 13636 16161 18000-0.46%21.97%18.51%11.38%976 977 1160 1350-24.97%0.07%18.78%16.39%EPS 0.36 0.36 0.43 0.50 ROE 5.32%5.57%6.11%6.79%PE 11.2 11.2 9.4 8.1 PB 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.53 2022-2024 500 640 720 900 28.0%12.5%0%5%10%15%20%25.0%25%30%0 200 400 600 800 1000 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY 51 79 97.9 218-2.0%54.9%23.9%122.7%0 50 100 150 200 250 2021 2018 2019 2020 YoY 59 64 53 118 122 108 112 264 0 50 100 150 200 250 140%300 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%2018 2019 2020 2021 002314 26 wind wind 1 2021 288.4+84.9%2021 7.7+103%14.4+75%2 2021 33.3+92.2%45.3+412%3 2021 50%50 260 2021 100 500 2022-2024 44.2%/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 28843 40252 54488 70367 84.77%39.55%35.37%29.14%4033 6092 8663 12084 50.16%51.05%42.20%39.49%EPS 1.20 1.81 2.57 3.59 ROE 11.15%14.41%17.01%19.17%PE 33.3 15.8 11.1 7.9 PB 3.50 2.14 1.78 1.44 2022-2024 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.8 7.7 2.1 3.3 5.1 6.9 8.2 14.4 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0.9 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 24 31 47 96 288 32.2%49.8%106.3%61.7%156 84.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021()YOY 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.1 4.4 6.7 78.4%56.5%26.2%8.3%51.7%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 6098.HK 27 wind wind 1 2021 17+108.5%2021 4.1pp 31.1%2 2021 1.5 2021 94.4%98.7%3 2021 71 760 18.8%96.9%54 TOP3 8 TOP1 2022-2024 30.1%2022 40 PE 42.00 51.78/2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 8888 12397 16583 20816 31.01%39.49%33.77%25.52%1725 2402 3075 3802 110.95%39.27%28.00%23.63%EPS 0.76 1.05 1.35 1.67 ROE 12.42%14.75%15.88%16.41%PE 41.0 31.6 24.7 20.0 PB 5.10 4.66 3.92 3.28 2022