2024-2025即时零售消费电子行业研究报告.pptx

2024-2025 2 1,800 2024 1 18-43 1 1,200 2024 1 18-43 1 10 2023 12-2024 1 18-43 1 4 20 2023 12-2024 1 5/O2O 2 3 CPU U/+/+/+/30-2 1-5 4 02/01 03 5 CONTENTS 01 6 2.3.01 7 wifi i 8 54%40%35%32%32%24%18%/24h/5 1 3-4 2023 Q3 62 Q3 7,800 1,300 9 /30 10 /11 2016 1 2017 8 2020 2 2021 7 2023 10 iPhone15 2022 4 10 iPad10 3C 2021 12 iPhone 2021 11 A 28 12 2016-2023 1,090 376 16 /13 2023 GMV 2023 11 7 4 44.8%30 GMV YoY 2023 10 24 0-2023 11 11 24 39%37%28%52%/40%31%29%YoY 834%YoY 547%YoY 367%14 01 02 03 04 IP 15 b 00 95 90 85 80 8%13%14%21%24%18%30%31%37%27%27%19%14%11%8%|14%32%19%26%11%9%12%58%72%62%16 00 90-00 85-80/17-62%61%44%52%43%44%47%28%38%38%35%18 1179 2154 3251 5043 7676 11501 17051 25083 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2019-2026E 111 247 399 633 989 1505 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2021-2026E CAGR 68.5%19 02 20 21|*36%31%31%/*31%*18%|Z*VS 5%&VS 5%00 95 90 85 80 9%12%13%22%22%18%31%28%36%25%30%21%13%11%9%1w-2.5w 1w 2.5w 22 10%5%6%44%42%46%53%46%48%28%60%42%62%37%50%/56%-6%*+8%*68%+8%*+9%*8%+4%*34%6,000 3*(1)4,936 23 4,571*17%6%20%5%16%37%40%40%47%41%43%42%11%43%52%67%56%65%37%30%28%30%24%23%26 56%41%30%40%43%23%4,649 4,865 4,770 5,579 5,291 4,919 25 1 TOP1 TOP2 63%TOP3 TOP3 34%iPhone 21%16%*6 74%68%5,579 14%23%25%26%9%0%4%4%22%32%22%19%2,000 2,001-3,000 3,001-4,000 4,001-6,000 6,001-8,000 8,000 26 TOP1 TOP2 54%50%TOP3 TOP3 02 32%03/26%26%01 36%Apple OPPO vivo 60%75%30min 5 36 2023 9 iPhone15 13 2023 9 mate60 2023 11 vivo iQOO 12 3 2024 1 OPPO Find X7 OPPO 80%27 *6 4%23%26%9%1%14%14%14%31%25%30%10%2,000 2,001-3,000 3,001-4,000 4,001-6,000 6,001-8,000 8,000 5,291 TOP3 iPhone 31%30%15%64%TOP1 63%TOP2/60%TOP3 28 TOP3 26%01 62%02 60%03/52%GMV 800%2023 618 2023 2023 1800 1800 moto razr40 770 2023 11 TOP1/TOP2 TOP3 54%60%67%29 TOP3 4,919*6 4%14%23%25%26%6%17%13%28%23%13%9%2,000 2,001-3,000 3,001-4,000 4,001-6,000 6,001-8,000 8,000 71%TOP1 67%TOP2/TOP3/67%30 /TOP3 26%01 56%02 44%03/33%TOP1 TOP2/TOP3 54%67%63%2023#iPhone 329%Watch 1,054%iPad 813%31 34%45%/39%/46%-32 2019-2026E 2019-2026E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 36090 32657 31259 27167 27030 28246 29630 31082 37 135 273 2029 1351 960 654 2971 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 0.1%0.4%33 0.9%2.4%3.6%4.8%6.8%9.6%21%U 20%17%16%1 56%45%35%17%2023 5 iPhone14 34 Apple vivo OPPO Apple SKG 35 36 90 00*VS 5%&VS 5%55%*38%*34%*31%*76%90 00*|33%26%29%32%24%33%18%30%21%11%11%11%6%9%7%9%29%26%45%24%28%15%16%17%7%8%4%24%23%25%37 10%30%50%70%1 1.5 2 2.5 38 77%VS 5%VS 5%VS&5%6,214/3,349/3,360/2,115/2,435/65%74%58%71%72%55%58%/56%65%47%52%65%65%89%70%46%57%/59%66%59%39 VS 5%VS 5%VS&5%2,360/321/1,089/1,514/378/73%/67%53%70%69%69%60%75%/71%/69%60%78%58%76%60%72%68%79%46%40 VS 5%VS 5%VS&5%3,905/1,975/674/5,646/519/66%59%71%63%81%76%69%63%74%67%68%63%76%58%89%71%89%67%77%68%41 /1 2/3/1/)2/3/1/2/3/1 2/3/&/1/2/CPU 3/42 61%58%53%(/)53%/48%/47%47%46%/41%/38%/43 2023 1 30 2,000+3 618 6 11 21 9 1 17 44 8090 7694 7813 9551 9795 9759 9770 9684 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 16 40 100 285 165 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 0.2%0.5%1.4%2.1%3.4%0.2%2.0%5.0%8.0%10.0%2022 45 0 2019-2026E)2019-2026E 46 62%48%40%36%34%55%43%35%39%29%-/47/40%14%17%26%43%48 85&90 00 95 90 85 80 11%23%26%32%9%58%85 90+5%VS 00 7%8%7%7%12%95 21%25%20%15%22%90 34%35%38%34%28%85 27%23%25%33%27%80 11%8%10%11%11%*TOP2 49 -69%39%19%43%&/-50 SKG shark 7 MUJI 200%.2023 51 SKG 26%/2024 800%2023 520 4 520 520 2023 10 10 30min 52 88 1.4 2024 150 53 7 10 2023 3,267 8%18%1 2023 10 29-2023 10 30 3C/500%54|9 x 2023 6 200 SKU 2000 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 GMV 2023 55 8910 8333 8811 8352 8369 8066 8296 7799 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 12 25 100 280 550 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 0.3%1.0%2.9%6.2%0.3%15.0%2022 0 56 0.1%0.1%+6.0%2.0%/2019-2026E 2019-2026E 57 03 58 6.8 90 50%90 56%3,000+4,600 37 350 24 30 100 618 11 3C+30min 59 2024 KA/KA&/sug PR-Banner-60 62%61%55%50%48%46%46%44%40%37%12/61 62 THANKS