20231105_民生证券_有色金属行业证券研究报告2023Q3盈利总体回升进入最佳布局期_52页.pdf

本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 1 2023Q3 2023Q3 2023 11 05 2023 2023 2.05%18 2023Q3 0.01%14 2023 2023Q3 2023Q3 2023Q1-Q3+11.5%33.4%60.03 2023Q3 21.03-9.1%+58.4%2023Q1-Q3/-9.12%/+0.46%/-14.81%-16%+4.1%+0.3%23Q1-Q3/34.7%/26.7%/54.9%/50.4%2023Q1-Q3 53.7%18.9%1 2+3 CPI Q1-Q3 EPS PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 601899.SH 12.17 0.76 0.84 0.93 16 14 13 603993.SH 5.41 0.28 0.27 0.51 19 20 11 000807.SZ 13.57 1.32 1.08 1.75 10 12 8 000933.SZ 15.85 3.36 2.48 3.22 5 6 5 603799.SH 36.19 2.48 2.38 3.21 15 15 11 600547.SH 23.47 0.20 0.46 0.65 117 48 37 600489.SH 10.54 0.44 0.58 0.70 24 19 16 Wind;2023 11 3 Table_Author S0100521120001 S0100523100001 S0100522080006 S0100523090006 S0100121120036 S0100123070035 1.20231028-2023/10/29 2.-2023/10/24 3.20231021-2023/10/21 4.20231015-2023/10/15 5.9 23Q2-2023/10/12 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 2 1 2023Q3.3 2 2023Q3.11 2.1 2023Q3.11 2.2.13 2.3.16 3.24 4 2023Q4+.27 4.1+.27 4.2.33 4.3.38 5+.46 6.48.49.50 ZXDWvMnQmPnMrPtQqNrOqR8O8QaQtRnNoMmPeRoPoPeRoOsNaQoOvNxNmQtOvPnQyR/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 3 1 2023Q3 2023 2023 2.05%18 2023Q3 0.01%14 2023 Q3 4.84%16 1 SW 2023 2023 11 3 2.05%wind wind-2021 2 2023 Q3 SW 0.01%3 2023 Q1-3 SW 4.84%wind wind-2021 wind wind-2021 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 4 2023 2.05%-1.89%300-7.43%2023 Q3 0.73%300-3.98%-2.86%2023 Q1-3 4.84%300-4.70%0.69%1%300 2023Q3-3.98%-2.86%-0.73%2023Q1-3-4.70%0.69%4.84%2023 2023/11/3)-7.43%-1.89%2.05%Wind wind-2021 4 2023 2023 11 3 SW wind 801050.SI 2023 2 2023 SW 2.05%SW-5.65%SW-4.04%SW-6.98%SW 11.90%SW 8.50%/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 5 SW 16.38%SW 4.03%SW 24.08%SW 24.84%SW-9.63%SW-2.30%SW-14.50%SW-10.32%SW-4.03%SW 13.51%SW-31.03%SW-30.96%SW-37.14%Wind wind-2021 2023 2023 11 3 2023 2.05%24.84%16.38%13.51%8.50%4.03%4.03%4.04%6.98%9.63%10.32%14.50%30.91%30.96%37.14%2023 Q3 0.01%2023Q1-3 4.84%5 2023 2023 11 3 24.84%6 2023 Q3%wind wind-2021 wind wind-2021 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 6 7 2023 Q1-3,%wind wind-2021 2023 2023 11 3 3 2023 2023 11 3 184.38%-43.82%48.14%-40.88%34.37%-39.35%21.96%-37.56%23.60%-37.14%36.93%-37.04%39.27%-36.75%35.80%-35.81%32.03%-34.15%22.83%-32.14%wind 2023 2023 11 3 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 7 184.38%48.14%34.37%21.96%23.60%8 2023 11 3 9 2023 11 3 wind wind 2023 8.3%10.8%28.9%2023Q3 8.9%9.0%1.9%35,9%Q3 Q2 2019 2022 2023 2019Q4 2022Q2 2023Q3 4 2023Q3 2022Q3 2022Q1-3 2023Q2 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3 2023Q3 2023Q3 2023Q3 7990 23775 8514 25742 8.3%9269 16.0%8.9%7317 21896 8040 24260 10.8%8764 19.8%9.0%8.4%7.9%5.6%5.8%-2.1%5.5%-3.0%-0.1%537 1486 337 1057-28.9%344-35.9%1.9%wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 8 10 2011-2023Q1-3 11 2018Q1-2023Q3 wind wind 10 2019 2020 2021 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3 51.13%2022 12 2011-2023Q1-3 13 2011-2023Q1-3 wind wind 2023Q1-3 12.1%16.1%5.8%-0.2%-8.4%2023Q3-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%-5%0%5%10%15%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3 05001000150020002500300035004000 54.36%56.99%58.04%58.72%57.31%55.56%54.83%55.72%56.51%54.73%52.77%50.67%51.13%46%48%50%52%54%56%58%60%/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 9 5 2023Q3 2022Q3 2022Q1-3 2023Q2 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3/2022Q1-3 2023Q3 2023Q3/2022Q3 2023Q3/2023Q2 SW 7,990 23,775 8,514 25,742 8.3%9269 16.0%8.9%SW 5,023 15,627 5,678 17,521 12.1%6624 31.9%16.7%SW 1,475 4,589 1,434 4,601 0.2%1800 22.1%25.5%SW 3,205 9,799 3,757 11,536 17.7%4369 36.3%16.3%SW 343 1,239 487 1,384 11.7%455 32.6%-6.5%SW 709 2,119 868 2,462 16.1%833 17.5%-3.9%SW 497 1,463 595 1,731 18.4%596 20.1%0.2%213 657 272 730 11.2%237 11.5%-13.0%SW 1,107 3,541 1,112 3,336-5.8%1094-1.2%-1.6%SW 193 624 166 567-9.2%184-4.7%10.8%SW 172 507 151 430-15.2%150-12.4%-0.6%SW 297 976 321 934-4.3%318 7.1%-1.0%SW 446 1,434 473 1,405-2.0%442-0.9%-6.6%SW 903 1,772 592 1,768-0.2%555-38.6%-6.3%SW 248 756 238 771 2.0%257 3.8%8.1%SW 655 1,016 354 992-2.3%292-55.4%-17.4%SW 247 716 265 656-8.4%163-34.1%-38.4%SW 79 249 101 375 50.8%187 137.9%85.8%SW 169 468 164 281-39.9%-24-114.4%-114.8%wind 2023Q1-3 43.8%54.1%36.8%35.6%7.3%2023Q3 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 10 6 2023Q3 2022Q3 2022Q1-3 2023Q2 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3/2022Q1-3 2023Q3 2023Q3/2022Q3 2023Q3/2023Q2 SW 536.67 1486.28 337.34 1057.05-28.9%343.91-35.9%1.9%SW 150.44 612.78 177.90 568.14-7.3%208.66 38.7%17.3%SW 66.86 272.36 65.72 221.48-18.7%86.79 29.8%32.1%SW 72.33 293.28 95.45 299.21 2.0%105.11 45.3%10.1%SW 11.25 47.14 16.72 47.44 0.6%16.76 48.9%0.2%SW 9.22 41.27 23.06 59.33 43.8%21.14 129.4%-8.3%SW 13.15 45.01 23.14 60.03 33.4%21.03 59.9%-9.1%-3.94-3.73-0.08-0.70-81.2%0.11 SW 51.69 213.62 33.98 135.06-36.8%52.67 1.9%55.0%SW 17.31 66.97 2.63 18.31-72.7%5.43-68.6%106.6%SW 6.01 19.05 5.25 15.46-18.8%4.45-26.0%-15.3%SW 11.94 63.34 15.89 53.49-15.6%17.04 42.7%7.2%SW 16.43 64.26 10.21 47.80-25.6%25.75 56.7%152.3%SW 307.47 562.48 84.60 258.39-54.1%60.26-80.4%-28.8%SW 6.10 44.60 13.14 36.15-18.9%12.20 99.9%-7.2%SW 301.37 517.89 71.47 222.11-57.1%47.94-84.1%-32.9%SW 17.85 56.13 17.80 36.13-35.6%1.18-93.4%-93.4%SW 3.21 13.28 6.10 20.53 54.6%9.50 195.7%55.8%SW 14.64 42.85 11.70 15.60-63.6%-8.32-156.9%-171.1%wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 11 2 2023Q3 2.1 2023Q3 2023Q3 Q1 3 6 2023Q1-Q3 SHFE 0.46%-9.12%-38.48%-14.81%-20.48%-6.26%2023Q3 SHFE 13.63%0.24%6.05%-14.86%18.89%-4.36%2.28%-0.89%4.24%-1.33%8.59%-3.08%7 2023Q2/2022Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 2022Q3 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q3 2023Q3 67,823 68,133 0.46%60,438 67,143 68,677 13.63%2.28%20,399 18,539-9.12%18,353 18,562 18,398 0.24%-0.89%25,242 15,530-38.48%15,042 15,303 15,952 6.05%4.24%25,242 21,503-14.81%24,036 20,741 20,465-14.86%-1.33%268,808 213,757-20.48%189,194 207,124 224,926 18.89%8.59%191,188 179,229-6.26%174,201 171,905 166,603-4.36%-3.08%wind 2023Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 7.93%2022 2023Q3 Q3 14.90%-2.44%/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 12 14 2023Q1-Q3 15 2023Q3 wind wind 2023Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 221.48-16.0%2022 306.31 4.1%47.44 0.3%Q3 2023Q3 80.04 108.29 16.76 34%50%40%14%10%0.2%2023Q3 77.32 97.31 16.30 27%47%44%+24%+14%-0.2%16 2023Q1-Q3 17 2023Q3 wind wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 13 18 2023Q1-Q3 19 2023Q3 wind wind 2023Q1-Q3 161.65 53.52 49.43 41.03 25.76 2023Q3 2023Q3 58.63 19.36 15.83 13.63 11.47 2023Q3 20 2023Q1-Q3 21 2023Q3 wind wind 2.2 2023Q3+11.46%-2.62%2023Q3-9.14%+58.44%/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 14 2023Q3 COMEX+11.46%-2.62%1978/7 25bp CPI 6 3.0%9 3.7%Q3 GDP 2.93%9 Q3 22 23 wind wind 2023Q1-Q3 1731.12 18.35%2023 Q3 596.34+20.45%+0.47%24 2023 Q1-Q3 25 2023Q3 wind wind 60801001205001,0001,5002,0002,5002018/11/22019/5/22019/11/22020/5/22020/11/22021/5/22021/11/22022/5/22022/11/22023/5/22023/11/2COMEX 02040608010012014001020304050602010-09-042011-09-042012-09-042013-09-042014-09-042015-09-042016-09-042017-09-042018-09-042019-09-042020-09-042021-09-042022-09-042023-09-04伦敦现货白银:以美元计价金银比-20%0%20%40%05001000150020002500SW()(%)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02004006008002018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32023Q12023Q22023Q3SW()(%)(%,)/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 15 2023 Q1-Q3 60.03+33.39%2023 Q3 21.03-9.14%+58.44%26 Q1-Q3 27 2023Q3 wind wind 2023 Q1-Q3 20.72 13.45 11.18 2023 Q3 6.01 4.65 3.84 28 Q1-Q3 29 2023Q3 wind wind-200%0%200%400%600%-1000100200300400500600700-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%050100150SW()(%)-600%-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%-30.00-10.0010.0030.0050.00SW(%)(%,)/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 16 2.3 23Q3 Q3-48.3%-0.4%Q3-50.5%-20.5%23Q3 25.0%33.4%31.0%1.4%9.7%0.8%2023Q1-Q3-53.7%345 23Q3 67-75.9%-46.8%2023Q1-Q3-18.9%36 23Q3 12+99.9%-7.2%2022 2023Q3 2022 2022Q1 98.49%31.02%99.65/2022 2023 2022 Q3 2023Q3 47.03/35.22%2.11%2021 2022 2023 Q3 2023Q3 228.02/0.05%11.71%2022Q3 30 2023Q3 wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 17 8 2022Q3 2023Q2 2023Q3 23Q3 23Q3(6-8%CIF)/15.4 7.2 8.1-47.8%12.1%(99.8%)/341.7 252.8 256.3-25.0%1.4%(20%)/60493 36754 40313-33.4%9.7%(73.5%)/236.2 161.8 163.0-31.0%0.8%(99.9%)/2898333 2171270 1835185-36.7%-15.5%(99.5%)/484117 251135 250222-48.3%-0.4%()/479483 298405 237167-50.5%-20.5%/108867 81944 80926-25.7%-1.2%/312.5 213.8 200.1-36.0%-6.4%99.0%/466817 236294 230071-50.7%-2.6%(96%)/460217 277325 217071-52.8%-21.7%(99.9%)/24165 23076 22079-8.6%-4.3%(99.65%)/79733 81206 78065-2.1%-3.9%(99.99%)/44682 56694 57074 27.7%0.7%(99%)/70288 67742 64731-7.9%-4.4%(99.99%)/4948 6270 6511 31.6%3.8%(99.99%FOB)/224 205 261 16.2%26.8%(99.7%)/14998 14779 12933-13.8%-12.5%(45%)/2561 3276 4116 60.7%25.6%(99.95%)/2571 2654 2450-4.7%-7.7%(99.7%)/80633 70043 54738-32.1%-21.9%(WO365%)/114192 119468 119722 4.8%0.2%2023Q1-Q3 1.6%5334 44.8%384 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 18 31 2023Q1-3+1.6%32 2023Q1-3-44.8%wind wind 2.3.1 Q3 2023Q3 2023Q3 Q3-36.7%-15.5%Q3-48.3%-0.4%Q3-50.5%-20.5%9 2022Q3 2023Q2 2023Q3 23Q3 23Q3(99.9%)/2898333 2171270 1835185-36.7%-15.5%(99.5%)/484117 251135 250222-48.3%-0.4%()/479483 298405 237167-50.5%-20.5%99.0%/466817 236294 230071-50.7%-2.6%(96%)/460217 277325 217071-52.8%-21.7%2023Q1-Q3-10.1%1347-53.7%345 23Q3 402-30.4%-15.5%67-75.9%-46.8%2023Q1-Q3 81.0-49.3%60.1-59.4%56.0-53.7%2023Q3 16.5+4.4%1.6-95.4%5.0-82.5%/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 19 33 23Q1-Q3-10.1%34 23Q1-Q3-53.7%wind wind 35 23Q1-Q3 36 23Q3 wind wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 20 2.3.2 Q3 2023Q3 2023H1 Q2 Q2 23Q3 25.0%33.4%31.0%1.4%9.7%0.8%10 2022Q3 2023Q2 2023Q3 23Q3 23Q3(6-8%CIF)/15.4 7.2 8.1-47.8%12.1%(99.8%)/341.7 252.8 256.3-25.0%1.4%(20%)/60493 36754 40313-33.4%9.7%(73.5%)/236.2 161.8 163.0-31.0%0.8%2023Q1-Q3+2.0%771-18.9%36 23Q3 257+3.8%+8.1%12+99.9%-7.2%2023Q1-Q3 30.1+0.2%2.3-70.3%2.4-42.9%1.3-48.6%9.3-12.5%0.7-49.4%1.6+120.1%0.6+33.9%37 23Q1-Q3-10.1%38 23Q1-Q3-10.1%wind wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 21 39 23Q1-Q3 40 23Q3 wind wind 2.3.3 23Q3 6.0%12.4%2023Q1-Q3 693.9 2.1%32.4 14.3%41 2023Q1-Q3 2%42 2023Q1-Q3 14%wind 2023Q1-Q3 wind 2023Q1-Q3 11 2023Q1-Q3 2023Q3 2023Q1-Q3 23Q3 23Q3/184,675 169,062-6.69%-7.49%-6.04%/117,036 112,352-18.89%-13.14%2.73%/)40,554 35,754-11.21%-17.64%-12.36%wind 0%20%40%60%80%0200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1镍板块营业收入增速（右轴）-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1镍板块归母净利润增速（右轴）/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 22 2023Q1-Q3 30.1+0.2%2.3-70.3%2023Q3 9.3+23.4%0.7+93.4%43 2023Q1-Q3&Q3 wind 2.3.4 Q3 2023Q3/58.6/48.7/33.4%/33.2%1.6%/1.2%2023Q1-Q3 9.2%566.99 23Q3 4.75%10.78%183.87 44 2017-2023Q1-Q3 45/wind-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520253035盛屯矿业华友钴业23Q1-Q3 23Q3 23Q1-Q3增速 23Q3增速 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 23 2023Q1-Q3 13.80-70.2%1.66-21.7%1.58-89.3%1.26-65.9%2023Q3 3.24-78.4%0.80 26.6%0.74-46.2%0.64 154.3%46 2023H1 wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 24 3:SW 2023 Q3 0.20pct 3.83%2023Q3 23Q3 47 0.20pct 3.83%wind 48 2023Q3 3.83%2023Q2 0.20pct%wind 1.54%1.49%1.49%1.64%2.56%3.41%2.63%2.49%2.79%2.92%4.58%3.02%4.74%3.40%2.32%1.30%0.85%1.18%0.99%1.79%1.47%1.56%1.65%2.61%2.34%2.72%4.13%3.65%4.47%4.79%4.53%4.05%3.98%3.62%3.83%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q30%5%10%15%20%2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 25 10 2023Q2 59.70%2023Q3 60.33%16.93%20.01%2023Q3 10 642.60 2023Q2 59.70%2023Q3 60.33%A 226.93 20.01%84.46 7.45%63.70 5.62%55.82 4.92%48.51 4.28%47.11 4.15%46.62 4.11%42.99 3.79%34.01 3.00%33.89 2.99%2023Q2 16.93%2023Q3 20.01%49 2023Q3 20.01%wind 12 2023Q3 10()()(%)()2023Q3%601899.SH 570 99 187,084 20,474 9.11%2,269,329 20.01%603799.SH 113 40 22,518 735 13.35%844,645 7.45%000975.SZ 103 38 44,762 5,621 18.00%636,964 5.62%600547.SH 170 49 22,229 4,908 6.15%558,160 4.92%002466.SZ 88 37 8,832-3,133 5.99%485,123 4.28%000933.SZ 104 42 27,579 6,836 12.32%471,053 4.15%600489.SH 162 59 42,616 14,886 8.79%466,221 4.11%000807.SZ 149 51 28,470 10,395 8.21%429,891 3.79%300395.SZ 67 24 7,517-456 15.85%340,057 3.00%002460.SZ 69 35 7,600-3,022 6.30%338,938 2.99%wind 2022 Q4 5 A 20,474 16.93%20.01%6,836 2.42%16.93%8.99%4.11%3.66%7.52%2.42%2.58%2.07%3.53%5.97%20.01%7.45%5.62%4.92%4.28%4.15%4.11%3.79%3.00%2.99%0%5%10%15%20%25%2023Q2 2023Q3 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 26 4.15%10,395 2.07%3.79%14,886 2.58%4.11%5,621 4.11%5.62%A Q3 16.93%20.01%Q3 20,474 13 2023Q3 top10 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q2()2023Q3()2023Q3 601899.SH 16.93%20.01%1883057.95 2269329.11 386271.16 000933.SZ 2.42%4.15%269663.66 471052.97 201389.32 000807.SZ 2.07%3.79%230093.38 429890.53 199797.15 600489.SH 2.58%4.11%286498.46 466220.56 179722.10 000975.SZ 4.11%5.62%457386.70 636964.13 179577.43 603993.SH 1.46%2.82%162899.86 319786.43 156886.57 600547.SH 3.66%4.92%406727.07 558160.27 151433.20 601600.SH 1.62%2.84%180431.76 321681.32 141249.56 002340.SZ 0.60%1.52%66852.72 172050.77 105198.05 601702.SH 0.53%0.96%58401.56 108755.93 50354.38 Wind Q3 Q3 5 3,133.03 7.52%4.28%3,022.42 5.97%2.99%2,213.05 2.99%1.38%133.92 2.63%1.10%735.40 8.99%7.45%Q3 14 2023Q3 top10 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q2()2023Q3()2023Q3 002466.SZ 7.52%4.28%836450.76 485122.61-351328.16 002460.SZ 5.97%2.99%663865.78 338938.32-324927.46 002738.SZ 2.99%1.38%332031.52 156746.67-175284.85 688598.SH 2.63%1.10%292237.80 124759.65-167478.16 603799.SH 8.99%7.45%1000137.32 844645.43-155491.89 600497.SH 1.01%0.04%112425.94 5082.93-107343.00 002155.SZ 1.29%0.49%143885.04 55492.11-88392.93 603688.SH 3.22%2.43%358561.92 275930.83-82631.10 688122.SH 2.78%2.13%309704.42 241318.13-68386.29 002149.SZ 0.91%0.33%101687.06 37462.56-64224.50 Wind /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 27 4 2023Q4+4.1+2023 11 2 FOMC 5.25%-5.5%2023 11 3 2 4.85%2023 2024 50 wind 2023Q4 7 LME+COMEX 2024 10%2023 1-8 340.4 2.85%2023 1-8 176.2 17.5%2023 1-8 8.2%114 ICSG 1-8 1451 1.5%012345602,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002009/11 2010/11 2011/11 2012/11 2013/11 2014/11 2015/11 2016/11 2017/11 2018/11 2019/11 2020/11 2021/11 2022/11 2023/11():LME3(/)(%):(%)/本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 28 51 2023 1-8 1.54%52 2023 1-8 2.85%ICSG 53 2023 1-8 17.5%54 2023 1-8 8.2%10%55 2023 4.2%56 2023 41.1%1401451501551601651701751801851901952002051 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 20233540455055601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 202310152025301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 202381012141618201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023010020030040050060070080090010002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202302004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 /本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明证券研究报告 29 2023 11 3+27.3 2016-2021 2022 3 9 57 2023 11 3+27.3 wind 02040608