20240407_招商证券_建材行业定期报告：玻璃累库放缓玻纤提价关注建材品类供需拐点_22页.pdf
|2024 04 07/2024/4/1-4/5 0.3%30/15-30/3 4 5%-15%1730/34/6519.2-174.4-2.61%+4.9%26.5-0.7 4 1 1 2+/%107 2.1 852.6 1.1 704.8 1.0%1m 6m 12m 3.8-14.6-20.5 3.0-11.3-7.7 1 2024-04-01 2 2024-03-26 3 C 2024-03-18 S1090517070008 S1090523070010-40-30-20-10010Apr/23 Jul/23 Nov/23 Mar/24(%)建材 沪深300 2.5 1.5 2.5 3.5.7 1.7 2.8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.12 6.14 7.16.17 1.17 2.18.20 1 2023 42.92 11.57%.20 2 2023 282.35 18.26%.20 3 2023 1079.56 4.99%.20 4 2023 228.63 8.17%.21 5 2023 6.15 12.61%.21 6 1.08.21 7 7757.87.21 0YDWzQrMmPmNqOsRtOtMqR7NdN8OsQpPnPsOjMnNmQeRmNnMaQoOvNMYmRpNMYsPrQ 3 1 P.O42.5/.11 2/.11 3 P.O42.5/.11 4 P.O42.5/.11 5 P.O42.5/.11 6 P.O42.5/.11 7 P.O42.5/.12 8 P.O42.5/.12 9%.12 10/.13 11/.13 12/.14 13/.14 14.14 15/.15 16/.15 17/.15 18.15 19.16 20 PVC PPR HDPE/.16 21/.16 22/.16 23 LNG/.16 24/.17 25/.17 26.17 27.17 28.17 4 29 PE 2023.18 30 PE 2023.18 1.9 2.18 FGf1FDjKJSaWLb7s5JgDFsiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfaPGOHL8XVPzeHOREKDt0gV 5 1 0.3%30/15-30/3 4 5%-15%1730/34/6519.2-174.4-2.61%+4.9%26.5-0.7 4 1 1 2 2+/3 6+C+2024-2025 EPS 0.93 0.98 2023-2024 EPS 0.76 0.92+2023 1-6,15.1%C 2023-2024 EPS 1.36 1.81+/2023-2024 EPS 0.55 0.77+2023-2024 EPS 0.58 0.71+2024-2025 EPS 2.58 2.95+7 2023-2024 EPS 1.59 2.07+&2024-2025 EPS 0.99 1.15 1+N+2023-2024 EPS 0.60 0.80 2024-2025 EPS 0.66 0.80 1 1 2024 2024 2 2024 10 2024 2 25 2.35%2 25 8 25 2034 2 25 1350 3 4 1 1 8 2 1 1+2 4 4 31 2 1 2024 2024 2 4 6 2027 73%3 1 2024 202416 20240597-T-609 2 1-2 3.9 12 3.6 3.1 1-2 31 17 14 1.8 1.6 1.6 7.7 9 4 0.3%30/15-30/3 4 5%-15%1 6 2-3 5-6 3-5 10-20/2 4 10-20/2-3 5-6 6 10/5 7 8 5-6 7 6-7 10-20/8 10/6-7 4 10/3-5 5-6 7 20-30/5 6-7 70%5 20/10 5-6 30/4 70%4 6 60%-70%30/4 10 20 4-5 6-7 50%-60%10-20/6-7 10/6 4 10 20-30/6-7 4-5 3 50/2-3 20-30/3 10%-20%4-5 70%5 20/3-4 5-6 4 20 3-4 1 P.O42.5 Q5500 715/271/0.16/100kg 11 1 P.O42.5/2/wind P.O42.5 3 P.O42.5/4 P.O42.5/5 P.O42.5/6 P.O42.5/200300400500600700第1周第3周第5周第7周第9 周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周第49周第51周2014 年 2015年 2016年 2017年2018 年 2019年 2020年 2021年2022 年 2023年 2024年02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001502002503003504004505005502016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03水泥煤炭 价格差 动力煤价 格（右 轴）1502002503003504004505005506002009/2/62009/9/62010/4/62010/11/62011/6/62012/1/62012/8/62013/3/62013/10/62014/5/62014/12/62015/7/62016/2/62016/9/62017/4/62017/11/62018/6/62019/1/62019/8/62020/3/62020/10/62021/5/62021/12/62022/7/62023/2/62023/9/61502503504505506507502009/2/62009/9/62010/4/62010/11/62011/6/62012/1/62012/8/62013/3/62013/10/62014/5/62014/12/62015/7/62016/2/62016/9/62017/4/62017/11/62018/6/62019/1/62019/8/62020/3/62020/10/62021/5/62021/12/62022/7/62023/2/62023/9/61502503504505506507502009/2/62009/9/62010/4/62010/11/62011/6/62012/1/62012/8/62013/3/62013/10/62014/5/62014/12/62015/7/62016/2/62016/9/62017/4/62017/11/62018/6/62019/1/62019/8/62020/3/62020/10/62021/5/62021/12/62022/7/62023/2/62023/9/61502503504505506507502009/2/62009/9/62010/4/62010/11/62011/6/62012/1/62012/8/62013/3/62013/10/62014/5/62014/12/62015/7/62016/2/62016/9/62017/4/62017/11/62018/6/62019/1/62019/8/62020/3/62020/10/62021/5/62021/12/62022/7/62023/2/62023/9/6 12 7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/68.13%2.81pct 10 5 50%9%5 1502002503003504004505005506006502009/2/62009/9/62010/4/62010/11/62011/6/62012/1/62012/8/62013/3/62013/10/62014/5/62014/12/62015/7/62016/2/62016/9/62017/4/62017/11/62018/6/62019/1/62019/8/62020/3/62020/10/62021/5/62021/12/62022/7/62023/2/62023/9/61502002503003504004505005506002009/2/62009/9/62010/4/62010/11/62011/6/62012/1/62012/8/62013/3/62013/10/62014/5/62014/12/62015/7/62016/2/62016/9/62017/4/62017/11/62018/6/62019/1/62019/8/62020/3/62020/10/62021/5/62021/12/62022/7/62023/2/62023/9/601020304050607080902016/3/312016/6/302016/9/302016/12/312017/3/312017/6/302017/9/302017/12/312018/3/312018/6/302018/9/302018/12/312019/3/312019/6/302019/9/302019/12/312020/3/312020/6/302020/9/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/9/302021/12/312022/3/312022/6/302022/9/302022/12/312023/3/312023/6/302023/9/302023/12/312024/3/31 13 10/11/2021 2022 69.82 3.58 4.88%85.05%89.41%4.36%91.68 4.18 4.78%85%71 17.59 0.34%10.62 5600 14001600180020002200240026002022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/03华北 华东 华中 华南东北 西南 西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1周第3周第5周第7周第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 20222023 2024 14 12/13/Wind 304(20.35/258 46 20240404 17.59 28-0.34%20240329-0404 123.28-0.19%+10.67%20240404 27630/28+2.22%20240329-20240404 19.16+1.27%20240404 84.87%28-0.33%8642%28-0.29%20240329-0404 85.01%-0.19%86.55%-0.17%20240407 6519.2-174.4-2.61%+4.9%26.5-0.7 4 1 14 6 2024.3.29-2024.4.3 050010001500200025003000350040002010/082011/042011/122012/082013/042013/122014/082015/042015/122016/082017/042017/122018/082019/042019/122020/082021/042021/122022/082023/042023/12全国平均-10000100020002015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/072024/01浮法玻璃：以煤 炭为燃 料的浮 法工 艺：生产 毛利浮法 玻璃：以 石 油焦 为 燃料 的 浮法 工艺：生 产毛 利浮法玻璃：以天 然气为 燃料的 浮法 工艺：生 产毛利01000200030004000500060007000800090002009/062009/122010/062010/122011/062011/122012/062012/122013/062013/122014/062014/122015/062015/122016/062016/122017/062017/122018/062018/122019/062019/122020/062020/122021/062021/122022/062022/122023/062023/12 15 15/16/17/18 3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0001月 2 月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20243,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5001 月 2月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20243,0005,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,0001 月 2 月 3 月 4月 5月 6 月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12 月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20240204060801002017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/01库存（万 吨）16 19 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 22/23 LNG/Wind Wind 0204060801001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年2022 年 2023 年 2024 年050001000015000200002015/032015/062015/092015/122016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002024-3-312023-11-302023-7-312023-3-312022-11-302022-7-312022-3-312021-11-302021-7-312021-3-312020-11-302020-7-312020-3-312019-11-302019-7-312019-3-312018-11-302018-7-312018-3-312017-11-302017-7-312017-3-312016-11-302016-7-312016-2-292015-9-302015-3-31国废均价010002000300040005000600070002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/022023/072023/12全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青01000200030004000500060007000800090002014/042014/092015/022015/072015/122016/052016/102017/032017/082018/012018/062018/112019/042019/092020/022020/072020/122021/052021/102022/032022/082023/012023/062023/11LNG 价格 17 24/25/Wind Wind 1 2.54%2.83%3.68%7.37%6.57%5.24%4.75%4.52%3.50%2.04%26 iFinD 2021 27 28 05000100001500020000250002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10钛白粉价 格05000100001500020000250003000035000400002018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/12环氧树脂 价格13%7%6%6%5%5%5%5%5%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%3%3%2%2%1%1%1%1%0%0%-1%-2%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%有色金属化工纺织服装综合农林牧渔钢铁轻工制造休闲服务商业贸易电气设备国防军工家用电器机械设备建筑装饰交通运输建筑材料电子汽车公用事业通信食品饮料医药生物非银金融计算机传媒采掘银行房地产2.54%2.74%2.83%3.49%3.68%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%上证综指 中小板指 创业板指 深证成指 建材行业2.04%3.50%4.52%4.75%5.24%6.57%7.37%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%18 iFinD iFinD 2021 2023 13.32 A 10.37 12.26 13.18 13.41 14.71 16.56 17.45 17.84 19.73 29 PE 2023 30 PE 2023 iFinD 2021 iFinD 2021 2 15.08%11.34%9.77%9.03%7.53%-10.06%-3.89%-3.41%-3.37%-3.04%2 1 15.08%27.26%37.42%2 11.34%25.09%27.31%3 9.77%24.46%20.28%4 9.03%21.49%15.04%5 7.53%19.95%13.63%6 6.99%16.28%12.72%7 6.84%15.68%12.08%8 6.80%14.42%12.08%9 6.76%13.87%10.81%10 6.50%12.67%10.38%11 6.50%12.52%9.63%12 5.98%12.38%9.57%13 5.96%12.26%8.66%14 5.73%12.17%7.20%15 5.46%11.92%4.37%16 5.31%11.77%4.19%17 4.92%11.76%4.19%18 4.84%11.51%4.01%19 4.83%11.36%2.95%20 4.76%11.29%A 1.97%5 6 8 9 10 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 17 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 23 24 26 29 30 32 35 37 0510152025303540银行建筑装饰房地产煤炭石油石化非银金融交通运输建筑材料家用电器通信环保钢铁公用事业电力设备综合纺织服饰有色金属基础化工轻工制造汽车商贸零售传媒机械设备医药生物食品饮料美容护理农林牧渔社会服务电子计算机国防军工10.37 12.26 13.18 13.41 14.71 16.56 17.45 17.84 19.73 0510152025玻璃制造水泥制造玻纤制造防水材料耐火材料其他建材管材水泥制品涂料 19 21 4.69%11.11%1.04%22 4.66%11.02%0.31%23 4.60%10.86%-0.89%24 4.55%10.73%-1.20%25 4.55%10.49%-1.77%26 4.39%10.06%-1.90%27 4.31%9.90%-3.04%28 4.08%9.58%-3.95%29 4.03%9.32%-4.50%30 3.93%9.09%-5.66%31 A 3.84%8.90%-5.83%32 3.79%8.59%-5.93%33 3.78%8.54%-6.61%34 3.77%8.38%-6.76%35 3.73%8.22%-7.15%36 3.66%8.01%-7.52%37 3.62%7.88%-7.68%38 3.62%7.87%-8.14%39 3.57%7.81%-8.38%40 3.52%6.91%ST-8.58%41 3.51%6.62%-9.22%42 3.51%6.28%-9.33%43 3.37%6.00%-9.38%44 3.29%6.00%-9.51%45 3.28%5.42%-10.40%46 3.18%5.32%-10.57%47 3.12%5.32%-10.76%48 3.10%5.26%-11.99%49 3.09%5.16%-12.00%50 3.01%4.81%-12.03%51 2.98%4.62%-12.82%52 2.81%4.24%-13.17%53 2.74%4.19%-13.26%54 2.73%ST 3.69%-13.43%55 2.59%3.65%-13.93%56 2.54%3.57%-14.38%57 2.53%3.20%-14.55%58 2.40%2.99%-15.03%59 2.37%2.96%-15.37%60 2.36%2.58%-15.63%61 2.36%2.35%-15.78%62 2.36%2.34%-16.00%63 2.30%2.13%-16.03%64 2.29%1.97%-16.11%65 2.27%1.79%-16.29%66 2.20%1.75%-16.90%67 2.19%0.93%-17.44%68 2.09%A 0.89%-17.58%69 2.08%0.25%-17.84%70 1.90%0.24%-17.84%71 1.88%-0.13%-17.96%72 1.87%-0.19%-19.03%73 1.75%-0.51%-20.57%20 74 1.71%-0.76%-20.70%75 1.64%-0.85%-20.95%76 ST 1.64%-0.86%-22.40%77 1.54%-1.13%-22.93%78 1.40%-1.39%-23.18%79 1.27%-1.69%-24.08%80 1.23%-2.35%-24.52%81 0.90%-2.47%-24.54%82 0.24%-2.94%-24.59%83 0.04%-3.11%-24.69%84 ST-0.51%-3.23%-24.87%85-0.76%-3.31%-25.64%86-0.79%-3.85%-25.79%87-0.88%-4.71%-26.19%88-0.96%-4.87%-26.86%89-1.03%-7.37%-27.14%90-1.20%-7.40%-27.18%91-1.45%-8.68%-27.37%92-1.45%-9.66%-27.94%93-2.09%-11.11%-28.40%94-3.04%ST-11.59%-30.92%95-3.37%-16.06%-33.38%96-3.41%-17.13%ST-38.55%97-3.89%-18.36%-41.18%98-10.06%-19.95%-43.10%1 2023 42.92 11.57%2023 42.92 11.57%;2.73 3.60%0.25/ROE 4.67%2 2023 282.35 18.26%2023 282.35 18.26%14.98 13.58-0.564/ROE-5.09%3 2023 1079.56 4.99%2023 1079.56 4.99%2526.28 97.92%0.002/ROE 4%21 4 2023 228.63 8.17%2023 228.63 8.17%6.45 16.11%0.4904/ROE 6.81%5 2023 6.15 12.61%2023 6.15 12.61%7438.54 1.89%0.15/ROE 6.85%6 1.08 2024 1 1 1.08 9812.418 29.78%960.71 0.42%7 7757.87 2023 8 31 2024 4 2 7757.87 7049.19 708.68 22 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%“”
报告吧