20231025_东方证券_人形机器人行业证券研究报告丝杠核心传动部件人形机器人开启成长空间_35页.pdf

|1 2022 5%30%Verified Market Research 2030 28.13 2 90%2022 4.4 2022 19%3 Optimus Optimus 28(14+14)2 12(6*2)50 100 200 99 166 280 Optimus(603667)(300580)(601100)(000837)(873593)(688320)(300718)(300461)(300809)(002520)/2023 10 25 021-63325888*6126 S0860510120021 021-63325888*6090 S0860520060002 BSW113 S0860522080002 9 2023-10-21 2023-09-25 2023-09-19 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.3.11 1.4.15 2.16 2.1 2030 28.13.16 2.2.17 3.22 3.1.22 3.2 350.23 3.3.24 3.4 2024 Q2.25 3.5.25 3.6“”.26 3.7.27 3.8“”.28 3.9.29 3.10.30 3.11.31 3.12.32.33.33 1ZAZwPmRnOrQrPpMsPoRrQaQ9RbRtRrRpNnOlOqRmMiNsQmRaQmNoQMYpNpRxNpMqR 3 1.6 2 Mitsui Seiki.7 3 SMS US/UL.7 4.7 5.7 6 2022.11 7 2022.11 8.11 9 2020.13 10 2004-2023.13 11 2022.14 12.15 13 2015-2022.16 14 2015-2022E.16 15 2014-2021.16 16 2014-2021/.16 17.18 18.19 19.19 20 2026-2030().20 21 2023.20 22 2030.20 23 2022-2028E.21 24 2018-2022.22 25 2018-2022%.22 26 2018-2022.23 27 2018-2022%.23 28 2018-2022.24 29 2018-2022%.24 30 2018-2022.25 31 2018-2022.25 32 2018-2022.26 33 2018-2022%.26 34 2018-2022.27 4 35 2018-2022%.27 36 2018-2022.28 37 2018-2022%.28 38 2018-2022.29 39 2018-2022%.29 40.29 41 DKF.30 42 GGBAA/AAL.30 43 2018-2022.30 44 2018-2022%.30 45 2018-2022.31 46 2018-2022%.31 47 2018-2022.32 48 2018-2022%.32 1.5 2 2020-2023.5 3.8 4.8 5.9 6 NC.9 7.10 8.12 9.12 10.13 11.14 12.15 13 2023.17 14.20 15.21 16.23 17.26 5 1.1.1/1/85%90%15%-85%2022 3(2022-2024)2023 2(2023-2025)2 2020-2023 6 2023 6 2023 4 2025 2023 2(2023-2025)2025 2022 9 2021 12 2025,70%50%150 2021 6 2020 7 2035 1 P1 P7 7 70%C3 GCr15 GCr15SiMn 9Mn2V CrWMn 18Cr2Ni4WA 20CrMnTi 38CrMoAl S55C 1.0213(Cf53)13505(100Cr6)58CrV4 100CrMn6 2 Mitsui Seiki 3 SMS US/UL SMS 1.2 4 5 8 3 HIWIN_(R)E1 HIWINSUPER-S 4 90%2-4 9()()()5 mm 12 14 16 20 25 32 40 50 63 80 100 120 15-50 30-60 2-2.5 3-4 mm 2 4 5 6 8 10 16 20 25 32 40 v=ri v mm/s r r/s i mm=+2 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P7 P10 JIS C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10 IT0 IT1 IT2 IT3 IT4 IT5 IT7 IT10 6 NC NC X Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY XY Z 10 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 T7 T10 7/P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 T7 T10 2022 5%3 0%2022 5%30%2022 CR5 44%70%NSK THK SKF TBIMOTION 11 6 2022 7 2022 1.3 6-8 90;8()THK NSK90%5%5%THK NSK30%30%40%12 8(),(1)615(2)1/3(3)90%(4)6000r/min 2m/s 10000rad/s2(5)1 m(6)(7)10(8)2 9 6-15 1/3 90%6000r/min,2m/s 1000rad/s2 1um 10 2;13 9 2020(2008)(2008-2013)(2014)20%(TOYOTA)(NSK)(SKF)2008-2013 40%-60%2014 NSK THK INA 10 2004-2023,Schaeffler Bosch Rexroth Steinmeyer CMC Moog NSK THK HIWIN 10 HIWIN 54.3%49.7%34.3%30.9%29.7%23.3%19.5%14.7%3.4%01020304050607080 萌芽期成长期 快速成长期 14 NSK THK Engineered Arts CMS Moog Schaeffler Bosch Rexroth Steinmeyer 2022 19%E 2022 Rollvis GSA Ewellix 26%26%14%19%8%11 2022 E G1-G5;11/123.28KN 177.28KN 18-60mm GSA G1-G5 4700rpm 168.9KN 246.9KN 20-63mm Ewellix G1-G5/133KN 197KN 8-64mm 26%26%14%12%8%8%3%3%RollvisGSAEWELLIXRexroth CMC 15,GAS,Ewellix,1.4 L d L/d 20 50 12 15%-85%12 THK 16 2.2.1 2030 28.13 2 0 30 2 8.1 3 2023 2015 12.23 2021 17.50 CAGR 6.15%Verified Market Research 2022 17.99 2030 28.13 5.93%2 022 2 8 2023 20%2015 14.31 2021 25.55 CAGR 10.14%2022 27.70 13 2015-2022 14 2015-2022E Verified Market Research 2021 983 1406 2014 225/2021 181/CAGR-3.06%15 2014-2021 16 2014-2021/12.2313.0513.8114.7715.7116.5117.5017.996.70%5.82%6.95%6.36%5.09%6.00%2.80%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0.005.0010.0015.0020.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 规模/亿美元 增速14.3116.7618.1519.5021.9423.6125.5527.7017.12%8.29%7.44%12.51%7.61%8.22%8.41%0%5%10%15%20%0510152025302015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 规模/亿元增速%17 26933944452561673186098357667282292110211173127614060%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020040060080010001200140016002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/%/%增速/%225213204197191187 1851810501001502002502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2.2 1986-1993 E0 E6 7 1993 P1 P3 ASIMO 2000 ASIMO 2013 Atlas 1X technologies ADT commercial EVE 10;NEO 2023 Engineered Arts Ameca Cyberone;Walker X;A1 to C 13 2023 cm kg km/h 1X technologies()EVE 186 83 14.4/NEO/30 4 12/()Optimus 173 73 8 50 Boston dynamics()Atlas 150 89 9 28 产量/需 求量（万套）18 Agility Robotics()Digit 175 65/16 Engineered Arts()Ameca 187 49/61 ASIMO 130 50 2.7 57 Cyberone 177 52 3.6 21()Wolker X 130 63 3 41 U-SLAM;()A1 175 55 7 49+To C Optimus 2021 AI DAY Tesla Optimus 2022 AI DAY Optimus 2023 5 Dojo Optimus 2023 8 Optimus Optimus 2 17 19 AI 18 Tesla AI Day;19 Tesla AI Day;EVE Digit 1X technologies ADT commercial EVE;Digit 2025 2025 20 2023 5 GGII 2026 3.5%20 2030 200 25%2030 50 20 2026-2030()GGII Tesla AI Day Optimus 2023;2030 50%21 2023 22 2030 Tesla AI Day APT imu 14 2023 21%16%16%14%202005500501001502002502026E 2030E,21%,16%,16%,14%,4%imu,1%,28%imu,18%,18%,17%,16%,1%imu,2%,28%imu 21 4%imu 1%Tesla Al Day 2022 4.4 Persistence Market Research 5%DATAINTELO 2022 4.4 2023-2028 7.5%2028 6.7 23 2022-2028E DATAINTELO Persistence Market Research 1 2000 200 1000 50 100 200 99 166 280 15 1 2 3 4 5 1 10 50 100 200 14 14 14 14 14 14 140 700 1400 2800 2000 1682 1414 1189 1000 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 22 3 24 99 166 280 2022AIDAY 3.3.1 24 2018-2022 25 2018-2022%Wind Wind 23 2015 2016 2016 23 RV 23 051015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23 3.2 350 1999 CNC 2005 16 85%90%50%50%350 2008 6 14 350 26 2018-2022 27 2018-2022%24 Wind Wind 3.3 2023 2022 1/28 2018-2022 29 2018-2022%Wind Wind 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CNC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CNC 0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 25 3.4 2024 Q2 2005 500 CAN 2024 2021 9 2023 2024 10.4 4500 750 10 10 30 2018-2022 31 2018-2022 Wind Wind 3.5 2022 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 26 2021 44.90%70%80-90%2025 2025 80%5 2023 7 12.30 4.54 1.80 1.30 1.00 3.66 3/28/13/5 32 2018-2022 33 2018-2022%Wind Wind 3.6 17 01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 27 500 150mm 3mm 2023 8mm 8/+34 2018-2022 35 2018-2022%Wind Wind 3.7 PLC CNC 3C 00.511.522.533.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28+2023 4 7.5 5.6 2.2 2.1/AI Day2022 Optimus 36 2018-2022 37 2018-2022%Wind Wind 3.8 02468102018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PLC-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PLC 29 38 2018-2022 39 2018-2022%Wind Wind 2022 3 2022 9 16,700 3 2 16,000 100 400 200 3 40 3.9 1952 1964 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 30 70dB 68dB 40m/min 0.002mm 0.001mm 41 DKF 42 GGBAA/AAL 3.10 1933 EPS 43 2018-2022 44 2018-2022%31 Wind Wind 3.11 2007-23 1 2023 10 8 1 45 2018-2022 46 2018-2022%01234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 32 Wind Wind 3.12 2000 CIMS 2014 MCM 2018 Airwork MRO MRO 2023 47 2018-2022 48 2018-2022%Wind Wind 00.511.522.533.544.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 33 Optimus(603667)(300580)(601100)(000837)(873593)(688320)(300718)(300461)(300809)(002520)34 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer