20240508_招商证券_通信行业卫星互联网系列研究报告：“天地一体”手机直连卫星加速演进_50页.pdf

|2024 05 08 3 TMT/1 2 4G/5G Ka/Ku 3 3GPP NTN 3GPP NR NTN IoT NTN 5G NTN 1 Mate 50 Mate 60 Pro 2 S9 5G Top 2024 5 500 3 Globalstar 1 SpaceX 2,016 V2.0 T-Mobile 2024 2024 2025 2 AST SpaceMobile 2023 4 S22 BlueWalker 3 9 5G 2024Q1 5 BlueBird 40 3GPP NTN 1 Inmarsat 2020 L 3GPP NTN R17 2 Omnispace S 3GPP 5G 2%193 3.8 2747.9 3.5 2036.8 2.9%1m 6m 12m-0.2-5.3-1.0-2.8-6.4 7.9 1 GB200 1.6T AI 1 2024-04-17 2 AI 16 IDC AI 2024-03-31 3 NVIDIA GTC AI AI 16 2024-03-16 S1090522060001 S1090514080007 S1090523040001-40-30-20-100102030May/23 Aug/23 Dec/23 Apr/24(%)通信 沪深300 2+-+-+1 2 3 T/R&4/5 WUEVyRsPmPrQqOoNmRpQrQbR9R7NoMnNtRqMeRrRrMeRnNuNbRnNxPuOmPrOxNsQtQ 3.7 1.7 1.9 2“”.9 3.13.14 1 1 15 1.16 2.17 3.17 4 Globalstar.18 2 2 4G/5G 19 1 SpaceX.19 2 AST SpaceMobile.20 3 3 3GPP NTN.22 1 3GPP NTN.22 2 3GPP NTN 1 23 3 3GPP NTN 2 5G NTN 24.26 1.26 2.27.28 1.28 1“G 60”.28 2 29 3 30 2.32 1.32 2“”.33 3 34 4 4.34 5/.36 3 T/R&.37 1 T/R.37 2.38 3 T/R T/R 39 4 39 4/.41 1/2023.41 2 WiFi PA 41 3/41 5 NTN.43 1 212S 9205S 43 2 MT6825 2024 5G NTN 44 3 SoC V8821 45 6.46 1 NR-NTN 46 2 NR NTN 46 3 NR NTN.48 1.7 2 2015-2022%.9 3 20%.9 4“”.10 5.10 6.10 7“”.12 8.12 9.13 10.15 2QWiSM1RzHevgokTT5PbJJKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MPs3+Yecb9S/QOL8Uw3IMHV 5 11.16 12.16 13 S9 5G.17 14 OPPO Find X7 Ultra.17 15 Snapdragon Satellite.18 16.18 17 iPhone.18 18 Ka/Ku.19 19 L/S.19 20 Starlink“”.20 21“”.20 22 BlueWalker 3.21 23 AST SpaceMobile.21 24 IoT-NTN NR-NTN 22 25 3GPP NTN.23 26 NTN.23 27 Inmarsat NTN.24 28 Omnispace Spark-2.25 29.26 30.27 31.29 32.30 33 5G NTN.30 34 31 35.32 36.32 37 212S.43 38 9205S.43 39 212S 9205S.43 40 MT6825.44 41 MT6825 3GPP NTN Defy2.44 42 NR-NTN IP.45 6 43 V8821.45 44 NR-NTN.46 45.46 46 NTN.47 47.48 48 NTN.48 49 PEBand.49 50 PBBand.49 1.8 2.8 3“”.11 4.14 5.14 6.15 7.16 8“”.20 9 Starlink V2.0 AST SpaceMobile.21 10.28 11.32 12.33 13.34 14.35 15.35 16/.36 17.37 18 T/R.38 19 T/R.38 20.39 21.40 22.42 23.47 7 1 1 2 1 2023 1 2 L S 1.5-2.5GHz Ku Ka Q/V ITU 8 3/4 1 L 1,626.5-1,660.5MHz 1,525MHz-1,559MHz n255 1,668-1,675MHz 1,518-1,525MHz n253 1,610-1,626.5MHz n254 1,800-1,900MHz S 1,980-2,010MHz 2,170-2,200MHz n256 2,483.5-2,500MHz n254 2,515-2,675MHz 5G 3,400-3,500MHz 5G 3,500-3,600MHz 5G C 5,925-6,425MHz 3,700-4,200MHz 5,850-6,425MHz 3,625-4,200MHz 4,800-4,900MHz 5G X 7.9-8.4GHz 7.25-7.75GHz-Ku 14.0-14.25GHz 12.25-12.75GHz 13.75-14.0GHz 10.7-10.95GHz Ku 13.75-14.0GHz 11.45-11.7GHz Ku-Ka 27.5-31GHz 17.7-21.2GHz-FCC 2 1,610-1,626.5MHz 2,483.5-2,500MHz 1,980-2,010MHz 2,170-2,200MHz Starlink V1.0 47.2-50.2GHz 50.4-52.4GHz 37.5-42.5 GHz StarlinkV2.0 12.75-13.25GHz 14.0-14.5GHz 28.35-29.1GHz 29.5-30.0GHz 10.7-12.75GHz 17.8-18.6GHz 18.8-19.3GHz 19.7-20.2GHz StarlinkV2.0 1,910-1,915MHz 1,990-1,995MHz T-Mobile PCS GlobalStar 1,610-1,625.5MHz 2,483.5-2,500MHz AST SpaceMobile 663-960MHz 1,710-2,360MHz 1,626.5MHz-1,660.5MHz 1,525.0-1,559.0MHz Omnispace 1,980-2,010MHz 2,170-2,220MHz 2023 9 1 GSMA 2023 2022 57%2pct 2021 1pct 2022 4 30 20%2023 20%6%2 2015-2022%3 20%GSMA 2023 2 2023/35%39%43%46%49%52%55%57%47%46%46%46%45%42%40%38%18%14%11%8%6%6%5%5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022已覆盖且已使用（%）已覆盖但未使用（%）未覆盖（%）71%20%80%29%海洋面积（%）陆地面积（%）移动通信覆盖（%）其他（%）10 4 2023 1/WiFi 2 5 6 2023 2023 1 2015 2021 2 11 3 2015 10 2015-2025 2021 3 2035 2021 11 2022 2 2020 6 2020-2022 2020 6(2020-2022)2020 9 2020-2022+2022 2 2022 2025 5G 2023 7 2023-2025 5G 2023 7 2023-2025 2025 2023 10 2023-2026 1 2 3 12 7 2023 2023 126.7 32.2%2024 3 2024 2030 2030 8 13 3 2023 1 2 3 4 5 9 2023 14 4/Globalstar SpaceX AST SpaceMobile Starlink V2.0 AST BlueBird 3GPP NTN NTN NTN SoC NTN Skylo NTN 5G NTN 3GPP NTN NTN/OmniSpace/3GPP NTN 3GPP NTN 2023 5 3GPP NTN 4G/5G 3GPP NTN NTN NTN L S R17 L/S R18 10GHz/4G/5G 3GPP NTN 2023 15 6 Mate 50 App Mate 60 3GPP 3GPP R17 5G NTN 3GPP NTN Apple Globalstar iPhone14/15 Globalstar SOS 2023 1 Snapdragon Satellite L 2023 11 SpaceX T-Mobile SpaceX T-Mobile SpaceX 2023 AST SpaceMobile BlueWalker3 64 700-900MHz LTE Lynk Lynk Tower 1 Omnispace Spark-2 NTN NGSO 3GPP n256 3GPP NTN 2023 5G Apple 1 1 2023 10 16 1 RX6003 Mate 50 60 2022 8 Mate 50 2023 8 Mate 60 Pro Mate 60 Pro RX6003 11 12 FDD 2022 7 54 2W 2W Mate50 P60 Mate60 Pro/-126dBm/1 SoC/40nm/8mm*8mm GNSS 2023 17 2 S9 5G 2023 11 10 2023 5G S9 S9 5G 5G S9 Top 2024 5 Top 2024 5 500 OPPO VIVO 2023 11 OPPO Find 2024 3 OPPO Find X7 Ultra 13 S9 5G 14 OPPO Find X7 Ultra 2023 3 2023 1 Snapdragon Satellite Snapdragon Satellite L SMS 2023 2 MWC 2023 Nothing OPPO VIVO Snapdragon Satellite 2023 11 R&S 2023 3 R&S 2023 11 18 15 Snapdragon Satellite 16 CES 2023 4 Globalstar Globalstar 2022 9 Globalstar Globalstar 5G X65 Globalstar n53 2022 9 iPhone 14 WiFi Globalstar iPhone 2022 9 Globalstar 95%2022 11 4.5 Globalstar 2023 2 Globalstar 2.52 Globalstar LEO 17 iPhone Apple 19 2 2 4G/5G 4G/5G 4G/5G 1 2 3 2GHz-110kHz-110kHz-1,667Hz-1,667Hz 1 Ka/Ku Starlink V1.0 Ka/Ku WiFi WiFi 2 L/S 2023 AST SpaceMobile BlueBird 39dBi 15dBi 18 Ka/Ku 19 L/S 1 SpaceX SpaceX 2,016 Starlink V2.0 T-Mobile 2022 12 SpaceX FCC 1,910-1,915 MHz 1,990-1,995 MHz PCS G Block SpaceX T-Mobile SpaceX 2022 8 T-Mobile MSS Starlink V2.0 2,016 T-Mobile SpaceX Starlink V2.0 20 Ku Ka 25m2 PCS SpaceX 2024 2023 10 Starlink Starlink Direct to Cell LTE SpaceX 2024 2,016 V2.0 58 80-100 Starlink 2024 2025 IOT 20 Starlink 21 Starlink Starlink 8 T-Mobile OPTUS ROGERS ONE NZ KDDI SALT Starlink 2 AST SpaceMobile AST SpaceMobile 2017 4G/5G 2019 417-476km BlueWalker 1 4G LTE 850-900MHz 2022 9 BlueWalker 3 SpaceX 508-527km 64m2 2023 4 AT&T AST SpaceMobile Galaxy S22 BlueWalker 3 10Mbps 2023 9 BlueWalker 3 Galaxy S22 21 5G 2024Q1 5 BlueBird 40 168 BlueBird 20 45 45 58 5G MIMO 5 BlueBird 2024Q1 2024 2023 9 40 20 AT&T Orange 22 BlueWalker 3 23 AST SpaceMobile AST SpaceMobile 9 Starlink V2.0 AST SpaceMobile Starlink V2.0 AST SpaceMobile 1,910-1,915MHz 788-798 MHz 845-849MHz BlueWalker 3 1,990-1,995MHz 758-768 MHz 890-894MHz BlueWalker 3 LEO LEO/2-4Mbps 14Mbps 2024 2025 IOT 5G Sub-6G 5MHz 25RB 7.2Mbps 18.3Mbps 16QAM/64QAM 10MHz 50RB 12.7Mbps 37.8Mbps 16QAM/64QAM 2023 2023 22 3 3 3GPP NTN 1 3GPP NTN 3GPP 3GPP NTN Non Terrestrial Network 1 LEO MEO GEO GSO 2 HASP High Altitude Platform Systems 3GPP NTN NTN 5G NTN IoT-NTN NR-NTN 5G IoT-NTN NR-NTN IoT-NTN eMTC NB-IoT NR-NTN 5G NR 24 IoT-NTN NR-NTN 2023 2023 23 3GPP NTN R17 2022 R18 IoT-NTN IoT-NTN NR-NTN 3GPP NTN R17 2022 4G LTE NB-IoT eMTC IoT-NTN 5G NR NR-NTN R18 IoT-NTN NR-NTN IoT-NTN 25 3GPP NTN:2023 NTN 1 5G 2 5G Xn 26 NTN 2 3GPP NTN 1 3GPP NTN 3GPP NR NTN IoT NTN 3GPP NTN 24 Inmarsat 3GPP NTN 2020 Inmarsat Inmarsat Alphasat L 35,000 GEO 3GPP NTN R17 NB-IoT GEO Inmarsat NTN 27 Inmarsat NTN 5G NTN 2023 3 3GPP NTN 2 5G NTN 3GPP NTN 5G NTN 3GPP NTN 3GPP NTN 5G/6G Omnispace S 3GPP 5G 2 Omnispace 2012 ICO Global S 1,980-2,010MHz 2,170-2,220MHz S 3GPP 5G 2022 4 Spark-1 Spark-2 IoT 2023 2 Omnispace Ligado Networks MSS L S Ligado 40MHz L Omnispace 60MHz S 25 28 Omnispace Spark-2 Omnispace 26 1 2023 1,162 7.29%5G 337.7 29.1%7.8pct WIA 2022 60 1 Starlink Starlink 2 29 2023 27 2+-+-+2023 2023 1+2+3GPP NTN 5G 5G 3+5G NTN 30 2023 2023 28 1 1 G60 2023 2 2023-2024 G60 G60 2023 7 G60 1,296 12,000 G60 G60 10 29 31 iFinD 2 5G 2020 9 2020 10 100%1 2023 6 IMT 6G 2 5G NTN 2023 6 5G NTN 5G NTN 3 2023 5G 30 32 33 5G NTN 3 5G 5G 2023 AI 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 2020 5G 1 5G 5G 2 ARM+FPGA 3 30%30%CPU 2023 31 2023 IGS 2.0 34 32 2 1 1 2 2023 9.37 113.27%3 2023 D 4 2023 2023 2023 2023 35 36 11 HTCV-064 VHF HTCBLS-006D B1 GPS-L1 S L HTLV-063 VHF HTLU-053 HTBLS-087 L S GNSS HTBB-004 B1 GPS L1 GNSS 33 2 2007 2010 200 SAR 12 1 2 1 2 34 3 2014 T/R 13 4 35 L S Ku Ka VSAT 14 MS-NRDBM-001 MS1931C GPS GLONASS MS-TFS-001 UTC 1PPS 10MHz S060-14H GPS A070-14A Ku GPS V025-52C-C 15 Ka Ka Ka 0.6 Ka/Ku 36 5/GPS/1,000KHz-80GHz 2023 0.6m/1.2m/1.8m 6WGHz+7WGHz 6WGHz+10GHz 2023/2005 NEC/28G 100/16/Ka ka 70 5G HFSS 37 3 T/R&1 T/R T/R T/R GaN GaAs T/R GaAs/GaN GaAs L-W 1 T/R 2 T/R 3 T/R 2023 T/R T/R T/R 2023 17/38 2 ADC/DAC T/R T/R Ka 2023 2023 1 2023 2 SIP ADC/DAC DBF 18 T/R T/R C49XXX T/R GaAs/GaN/CMOS T/R C43XXX MOSFET GMDB5XX Ku LTCC 8 MTB7XX Ka LTCC 8 GMDS4XX X SIP HTCC 4 GMMH12XX Ka MEMS TSV 19 T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R 39 3 T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R T/R 2024 20 T/R T/R 4 5G Ka MIMO 5G 40 21 SAR 41 4/1/2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2 WiFi PA WiFi PA WiFi PA 2023 9 2023-2024 1.01 2,268.57%DiFEM 3/+HTQ206S 40nm 2023 10 2023 9 2.1 4.5 42 22 HBP2012 BDS GPS GLONASS RDSS HGNM1631A B1L1RDSS LNA PA HwaNavMod-2-ANT/GPS/43 5 NTN 1 212S 9205S 2023 6 22 3GPP Release 17 212S 9205S GEO GSO Qualcomm Aware NTN 212S QCM4490 9205S GNSS 37 212S 38 9205S 212S 9205S 39 212S 9205S 44 2 MT6825 2024 5G NTN 2023 MT6825 IoT-NTN MT6825 3GPP R17(IoT-NTN)L-band S-band MT6825 ARM Cortex M4F GEO 3GPP NTN MT6825 PSRAM/RF PMU IC 40 MT6825 Mediatek Forbes Bullitt 3GPP NTN Bullitt Defy2 CAT S75 MT6825 3GPP NTN Bullitt SOS 41 MT6825 3GPP NTN Defy2 Mediatek Forbes 45 MWC 2024 5G NTN 100Mbps 2024 2 MWC 2024 5G-A NR-NTN Ku LEO 100Mbps Pre-6G 42 NR-NTN IP 3 SoC V8821 SoC V8821 5G NTN V8821 3GPP NTN R17 IoT NTN V8821 V8821 TCP/IP V8821 V8821 V8821 L S V8821 43 V8821 46 6 1 NR-NTN 2023 9 NR-NTN 3GPP R17 NR-NTN NR-NTN 2022 8 2023 6 5G IoT-NTN 5G IoT-NTN NR-NTN 2024 2 2024 2 01 5G 5G 6G 6G 44 NR-NTN 45 C114 2 NR NTN 2023 1 S 5G NTN 3GPP R17 NTN 5G NTN S 5G NTN 3GPP R17 NTN 5G NTN 47 01 02 03 46 NTN 2023 9 8 23 10/2 9/5/20/50/50 200 100 300 200 500 31 31 C114 NR NTN 2024 3 E.164 882 52 E.212 901 09 2024 4 NR NTN NR NTN 6Mbps 48 47 3 NR NTN NR NTN NTN 3GPP R17 NR NTN MOS 4 NR NTN 2024 2 NR NTN 2 4 NR NTN 3.6Mbps 11Mbps 4G 48 NTN 1 49 2 3GPP NTN IoT-NTN NR-NTN 3 4 49 PEBand 50 PBBand 5x10 x15x20 x25x050010001500200025003000May/22 Nov/22 May/23 Nov/231.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x3.0 x0200400600800100012001400May/22 Nov/22 May/23 Nov/23 50 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%