20240507_银河证券_食品饮料行业：盈利弹性率先兑现关注三大子板块_17页.pdf

2023/+1.1%/+8.9%24Q1/-0.9%/+19.2%1 24Q1 2 3 24Q1 2023+/+17.6%/+23.7%24Q1+/+16.7%/+20.6%1 2 24Q2 2023/-0.4%/-5.0%24Q1/+7.3%/+14.2%24Q2 2023/+4.0%/+27.0%24Q1/+37.5%/+40.8%24Q2 24H1 24Q2/T abl e _ R es earch-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%300.23A 24Q1.4 2024.5.6.23A 24Q1.7 2024.8.10.23A 24Q1.11 2024.12.14.ZXBYxOsPmPoPtNnOnQsNqRbR8Q9PnPoOmOqMlOrRmRfQmMyR8OmMxPNZqMmOwMrMqM 2023 2023/+1.1%/+8.9%24Q1 24Q1/-0.9%/+19.2%1 24Q1 2 3 2023 24Q1 24Q1 24Q2-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1 2023+2023/+17.6%/+23.7%PET 24Q1+24Q1/+16.7%/+20.6%1 2-80%-40%0%40%80%120%160%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1 38.3%32.8%16.7%37.2%5.3%3.9%37.8%1.7%-5.1%3.0%15.4%33.1%-6.8%5.8%7.8%8.1%-11.7%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%23 YOY 24Q1 YOY 19-23 CAGRU02Exx7VEk0BxAEG0b8FwpKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MOGl6sYmNpjancFcnhlAx23 1.RTD 24+1-3+24 5/500ml 24 3/500ml/BC 2023 23 22 27 70 商品名称 集团 品牌 净含 量（m l）中位价（元）均价（元）类目内市场份额 500 5 4.92 16.90%500 5 4.959.71%500 5 4.968.52%500 5 4.917.62%900 7 7.117.56%500 5 4.996.96%500 5 5.005.34%900 7 7.105.34%500 5 4.923.30%500 5 5.332.69%500 5 5.291.81%1250 9.8 9.811.60%500 5 5.251.39%1000 4 4.101.06%500 6 6.150.86%500 5 5.180.85%500 5 5.300.83%500 5 5.010.80%500 5 5.490.65%500 5 5.370.61%0204060801001202013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50.10%9.65%5.50%5.46%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2.2024 4 PET-8.2%-1.2%2024 PET 2024 PET 24H1,200 24Q2+23 21 23 24 24Q2 24Q2 1 24 2+24Q2 1 2+3 logo 3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04/3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01:()2023 23/-0.4%/-5.0%B 24Q1 24Q1/+7.3%/+14.2%23 24Q1 23Q2-40%0%40%80%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1-9.6%-5.8%-7.6%56.7%-37.5%38.6%13.3%63.9%6.3%4.7%-35.7%23.5%1.5%-6.6%7.6%30.4%-25.9%11.7%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%23 YOY 24Q1 YOY 19-23 CAGR 1.2023/-0.7%/-5.7%/-1.9%/-1.7%/-2.0%/-1.1%2024 2.24+24H1 24Q1/+0.8/+4.3pcts 3.23Q3 23+23H1+24 0.46 0.48 0.47 0.50 0.49 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.91 0.86 0.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.02019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.65 0.62 0.59 0.60 0.59 1.81 1.83 1.81 1.88 1.84 1.15 1.34 1.41 1.56 1.55 0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01():1 1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01 4.24 B 23 24 C 24 1 2 B 24 1 24 5-8 2 2024 3 0%4%8%12%16%20%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%21H1 21H2 22H1 22H2 23H1 23H2 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002020-03 2021-03 2022-03 2023-03 2024-03:-2.3%4.4%5.6%7.9%6.2%14.4%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%1 B C 2 24Q1 24Q2 24Q2+2026 100 15+B 24Q2 B 1 2 3 B 4 5 0.2%1.6%4.7%0.3%2.0%11.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%22Q1 23Q3 23 23/+4.0%/+27.0%24Q1 24Q1/+37.5%/+40.8%-80%-40%0%40%80%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-16%64%73%97%149%-69%72%15%-4%175%56%77%40%69%93%-49%22%10%-25%10%21%47%17%-16%-30%-9%2%-8%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%23 YOY 24Q1 YOY 19-23 CAGR 1.22 23 1 2 24 2.24Q1 2.2pcts 29.9%24H1 24 24H1 24 10 10-30 30-50 50-70 70-100 100 0123456 2022 2023 2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01():024681012142021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01:3.23 9 11 50%SKU 1 10%24 1 24 4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,0002021-02 2021-08 2022-02 2022-08 2023-02 2023-08 2024-02():3004005006007008009001,0001,1002021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01 2023-07 2024-01:30013000280003700005000100001500020000250003000035000400002017 2022 2025E 2027E 24Q2 1 2+24 24Q2 71%33%-11%3%18%-20%0%20%40%60%80%23 1-11 0%20%40%60%80%2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1/.“”.2020 2022 6 12 A 300 50 10%-5%10%5%20%5%20%-5%5%5%嫚