20240527_招商证券_建材行业定期报告：地产新政逐渐落地建材板块有望估值修复_25页.pdf
|2024 05 27/2024/5/20-5/25 1.8%15-50/10/Q5500 715/278.30/6.29/67.50%0.94%1.5 20240523 1670/16 20/1682/10.82/120.51-0.5%+5.92%83.5%16 20240523 5962.0+13.6+0.23%+14.28%93.5%1 2%107 2.1 847.5 1.1 711.5 1.0%1m 6m 12m 5.3-13.2-16.1 3.1-15.0-9.5 1 2024-05-13 2 2024-05-06 3 2024-04-30 S1090517070008 S1090523070010-30-20-1001020May/23 Sep/23 Jan/24 May/24(%)建材 沪深300 2.5 1.5 2.5 3.6.7 1.7 2.8 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.9 5.13 6.15 7.17.18 1.18 2.19.21 1 2023 29.33%2.17%.21 2 2023 40.84%1.58%.22 3 20%.22 4 2023 36.16%2.20%.22 5 2023 48.14%3.69%.22 6 2023 115.59%2.56%.22 7 2023 50.26%1.58%.22 8“”.22 9 2023 31.73%1.06%.23 10 2023 66.10%4.45%.23 11 2023 20.69%1.22%.23 12 10%.23 XVAZzQtOoNnMqOoNrMtMnM8ObP7NsQrRoMmQjMpPsPfQsQvM8OoOzRwMnRzRMYpPqN 3 13 5.00%.23 14 2023 19.23%1.71%.23 15 2023 42.25%3.59%.23 16 2023 31.38%1.22%.23 17.24 18 2023 30.58%0.20%.24 19 276.20 0.46%.24 20 30%.24 21 65,000.24 22 6.6727.24 1 P.O42.5/.12 2/.12 3 P.O42.5/.12 4 P.O42.5/.12 5 P.O42.5/.12 6 P.O42.5/.12 7 P.O42.5/.13 8 P.O42.5/.13 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轴）1502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/10/132010/6/132011/2/132011/10/132012/6/132013/2/132013/10/132014/6/132015/2/132015/10/132016/6/132017/2/132017/10/132018/6/132019/2/132019/10/132020/6/132021/2/132021/10/132022/6/132023/2/132023/10/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/10/132010/6/132011/2/132011/10/132012/6/132013/2/132013/10/132014/6/132015/2/132015/10/132016/6/132017/2/132017/10/132018/6/132019/2/132019/10/132020/6/132021/2/132021/10/132022/6/132023/2/132023/10/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/10/132010/6/132011/2/132011/10/132012/6/132013/2/132013/10/132014/6/132015/2/132015/10/132016/6/132017/2/132017/10/132018/6/132019/2/132019/10/132020/6/132021/2/132021/10/132022/6/132023/2/132023/10/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/10/132010/6/132011/2/132011/10/132012/6/132013/2/132013/10/132014/6/132015/2/132015/10/132016/6/132017/2/132017/10/132018/6/132019/2/132019/10/132020/6/132021/2/132021/10/132022/6/132023/2/132023/10/13 13 7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/67.50%0.94%10 5 50%9%5 20240523 1670/16 20/1682/10.82/1502002503003504004505005506006502009/2/132009/10/132010/6/132011/2/132011/10/132012/6/132013/2/132013/10/132014/6/132015/2/132015/10/132016/6/132017/2/132017/10/132018/6/132019/2/132019/10/132020/6/132021/2/132021/10/132022/6/132023/2/132023/10/131502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/10/132010/6/132011/2/132011/10/132012/6/132013/2/132013/10/132014/6/132015/2/132015/10/132016/6/132017/2/132017/10/132018/6/132019/2/132019/10/132020/6/132021/2/132021/10/132022/6/132023/2/132023/10/1301020304050607080902016/3/312016/6/302016/9/302016/12/312017/3/312017/6/302017/9/302017/12/312018/3/312018/6/302018/9/302018/12/312019/3/312019/6/302019/9/302019/12/312020/3/312020/6/302020/9/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/9/302021/12/312022/3/312022/6/302022/9/302022/12/312023/3/312023/6/302023/9/302023/12/312024/3/31 14 10/11/2021 2022 69.48 1.48 2.08%83.35%1.77%85.27 1.35 1.56%12+4 70+84+%17.22 11.19 14001600180020002200240026002022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/05华北 华东 华中 华南东北 西南 西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1周第3周第5周第7周第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 20222023 2024 15 12/13/Wind 20240523 303(20.31/253 50 20240517-0523 120.51-0.5%+5.92%83.5%16 20240523 5962.0+13.6+0.23%+14.28%93.5%14 6 050010001500200025003000350040002010/08/152011/04/152011/12/152012/08/152013/04/152013/12/152014/08/152015/04/152015/12/152016/08/152017/04/152017/12/152018/08/152019/04/152019/12/152020/08/152021/04/152021/12/152022/08/152023/04/152023/12/15全国平均-1000-50005001000150020002015/012015/062015/112016/042016/092017/022017/072017/122018/052018/102019/032019/082020/012020/062020/112021/042021/092022/022022/072022/122023/052023/102024/03浮法玻璃：以煤 炭为燃 料的浮 法工 艺：生产 毛利浮法玻璃：以石 油焦为 燃料的 浮法 工艺：生 产毛利浮法玻璃：以天 然气为 燃料的 浮法 工艺：生 产毛利01000200030004000500060007000800090002009/072010/012010/072011/012011/072012/012012/072013/012013/072014/012014/072015/012015/072016/012016/072017/012017/072018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/072024/01 16 2024.5.17-2024.5.23 15/16/17/18 3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0001月 2 月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20243,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5001月 2 月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9 月 10月 11 月 12月2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20243,0005,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,0001月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5月 6 月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12 月2014 2015 20162017 2018 20192020 2021 20222023 20240204060801002017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/012024/04库存（万 吨）17 19 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 22/23 LNG/Wind Wind 0204060801001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年2021 年 2022 年 2023 年2024 年050001000015000200002015/032015/062015/092015/122016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/122024/03PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002015/012015/062015/112016/042016/092017/022017/072017/122018/052018/102019/032019/082020/012020/062020/112021/042021/092022/022022/072022/122023/052023/102024/03国废均价010002000300040005000600070002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/022023/072023/12全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青01000200030004000500060007000800090002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/022023/072023/122024/05LNG 价格 18 24/25/Wind Wind 1 2.07%2.49%4.21%-0.89%-1.07%-1.26%-3.98%-5.22%-5.47%-6.71%26 iFinD 2021 05000100001500020000250002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/10钛白粉均 价05000100001500020000250003000035000400002018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/012024/04环氧树脂 均价2%2%-1%-1%-1%-1%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-3%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-4%-5%-6%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%煤炭公用事业银行石油石化电力设备交通运输食品饮料建筑装饰通信环保钢铁家用电器纺织服饰机械设备非银金融电子有色金属医药生物国防军工基础化工传媒社会服务商贸零售美容护理计算机汽车农林牧渔建筑材料综合房地产轻工制造 19 27 28 Wind Wind 2024 16 A 11.81 14.48 14.57 15.21 15.23 15.64 16.66 17.60 33.27 29 PE 2024 30 PE 2024 Wind Wind 2 28.22%8.48%8.45%8.24%2.69%-24.24%-11.87%-11.11%-10.92%-9.63%2 1 28.22%53.37%44.09%2 8.48%43.52%33.75%3 8.45%43.39%32.01%4 8.24%40.87%28.78%5 2.69%39.84%26.96%6*ST 1.61%29.46%25.60%-2.93%-2.72%-2.49%-2.07%-4.21%-4.5%-4.0%-3.5%-3.0%-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%深证成指 中小板指 创业板指 上证综指 建材行业-6.71%-5.47%-5.22%-3.98%-1.26%-1.07%-0.89%-8.0%-7.0%-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%管材其他建材水泥制品水泥制造玻纤制造耐火材料玻璃制造5 6 11 11 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 21 21 21 22 23 24 27 31 33 05101520253035银行建筑装饰石油石化煤炭环保交通运输家用电器房地产非银金融钢铁公用事业基础化工建筑材料纺织服饰轻工制造商贸零售汽车通信有色金属电力设备机械设备传媒综合食品饮料医药生物社会服务美容护理农林牧渔电子计算机国防军工11.814.5 14.615.2 15.215.616.717.633.305101520253035玻璃制造水泥制造其他建材水泥制品防水材料耐火材料管材玻纤制造涂料 20 7 0.65%28.92%23.57%8 0.61%21.41%16.08%9 0.57%20.68%11.87%10 0.50%19.70%9.08%11 0.24%16.06%8.29%12 0.16%15.09%7.81%13 0.00%14.61%7.60%14 A-0.51%13.25%A 4.49%15-0.79%12.71%4.03%16-0.96%12.63%1.04%17-1.20%12.05%0.86%18-1.26%11.72%0.49%19-1.48%11.65%-0.45%20-1.51%11.19%-0.59%21-1.56%10.92%-0.60%22-1.64%10.17%-1.44%23-1.84%9.65%-1.85%24-1.90%9.16%-4.34%25-1.93%9.09%-4.40%26-2.06%8.81%-4.90%27-2.22%8.49%-5.24%28-2.45%8.47%-6.49%29 ST-2.59%*ST 8.26%-6.84%30-2.97%8.16%-7.03%31-2.99%8.05%-7.19%32-3.04%7.41%-7.49%33-3.13%A 6.99%-8.02%34-3.24%6.93%-8.34%35-3.24%6.77%-8.56%36-3.36%6.71%-9.43%37-3.45%6.64%-9.70%38-3.56%6.15%-9.94%39-3.68%5.73%-10.24%40-3.76%5.70%-11.04%41-3.79%5.68%-11.20%42-3.82%5.63%-11.52%43-3.87%5.49%-11.97%44-4.03%5.48%-12.04%45-4.09%5.45%-12.82%46-4.17%5.03%-13.12%47-4.27%5.01%-13.51%48-4.29%4.65%-13.71%49*ST-4.38%4.43%-13.94%50-4.45%4.40%-16.21%51-4.49%4.06%-16.50%52-4.53%3.57%-17.64%53-4.72%3.31%-17.78%54-5.02%3.25%-18.62%55-5.03%3.00%-18.82%56-5.12%2.96%-19.01%57-5.28%2.62%-19.42%58-5.33%2.18%-20.24%59-5.45%2.00%-20.76%21 60-5.48%1.89%-21.42%61-5.64%1.79%-21.74%62-5.69%1.79%-21.93%63-5.69%1.69%-23.08%64-5.73%1.23%-23.46%65-5.87%0.89%-24.71%66-6.01%0.84%-25.31%67-6.08%0.81%-25.39%68-6.13%0.45%-25.81%69-6.20%0.42%-26.59%70-6.25%0.37%-27.66%71-6.35%0.28%-27.90%72-6.45%0.28%-28.26%73-6.50%*ST 0.00%-28.41%74-6.58%-0.12%-28.52%75-6.62%-0.23%-29.39%76-6.62%-0.67%-29.44%77-6.82%-1.09%-30.39%78-6.93%-1.20%-30.77%79-6.96%-1.94%-31.03%80-6.99%-2.30%-31.30%81-6.99%-3.28%-32.55%82-7.32%-3.32%-32.82%83-7.59%-4.40%-35.15%84-7.64%-4.86%-35.27%85-7.70%-4.90%-35.96%86-8.63%-5.20%-36.14%87-8.72%-5.60%-36.17%88-8.91%-5.86%-38.03%89-8.97%-5.93%-38.66%90-9.08%-6.31%-38.78%91-9.09%-6.33%-40.43%92-9.27%-6.39%-43.12%93-9.50%-8.28%-43.79%94-9.63%-8.58%ST-44.38%95-10.92%-13.17%-45.27%96-11.11%-16.16%*ST-54.83%97-11.87%ST-18.97%-58.10%98-24.24%-20.21%*ST-60.03%iFinD 1 2023 29.33%2.17%2023 4.42 4.36 10 2 8716.51 29.33%2.17%22 2 2023 40.84%1.58%1.31 200.00 12944.78 10 2.00 2588.96 40.84%1.58%3 20%2024 5 15 2024 5 16 2024 5 17 20%4 2023 36.16%2.20%40.03 0.275 11.01 36.16%2.20%5 2023 48.14%3.69%11.73 1689.60 11.56 10 3.00 3.47 48.14%3.69%6 2023 115.59%2.56%2023 1.99 600.00 1.93 10 5 9653.13 115.59%2.56%7 2023 50.26%1.58%2023 10 1.14 0 9.88 50.26%1.58%8 1020 51%980 49%23 9 2023 31.73%1.06%10 1.00 2310 31.73%1.06%10 2023 66.10%4.45%10 5.50 66.10%4.45%11 2023 20.69%1.22%10 1.50 6124.85 20.69%1.22%12 10%2.46 22.67%20.74%24.38%13 5.00%5.08%2024 5 14 5 22 152.81 5.00%14 2023 19.23%1.71%10 0.63 7500.09 19.23%1.71%15 2023 42.25%3.59%10 5.60 42.35%3.59%16 2023 31.38%1.22%10 0.9 7173 31.38%1.59%24 17 145.9100 0.85%1701.43 18 2023 30.58%0.20%1.72 0.023 396.41 30.58%0.20%19 276.20 0.46%2024 5 23 276.20 0.46%7.70/6.73/1998.42 20 30%2024 5 22 2024 5 23 2024 5 24 30%21 65,000 6.50 14.40 20.90 22 6.6727 6.6727 41.91 25 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%“”
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