20240508_银河证券_计算机行业：美股迎来财报季AI风险与机遇并存_21页.pdf

Table_Header 2024 5 8 Table_Title AI|04.19-05.03 Table_Summary 5 1 5 1 5 5 A()()4 28 5 11 500+3.23%+5.72%+9.50%TAMAMA+7.53%+14.86%+21.15%+8.12%4 19 5 3+11.14%+16.52%+23.22%+8.53%+6.63%META-6.05%+1.89%ARM+16.64%-9.65%+13.96%AMD+2.70%10 10 4.50%12bps 4 30 10 2.30%4.88bps 4 30 7.11 4 19 17 4 26 AI Meta Alphabet Meta AI Robotaxi AI AI AI PC XR Table_IndustryName Table_InvestRank Table_Authors 8610 66568589 S0130519070001 Table_IndustryData 2024-04-30 Table_Chart Wind Table_IndustryData 2024-05-03 Wind _ Meta Llama-3 _Gaudi 3 MTIA v2 AI 2 Table_ReportTypeIndex.3.3.3.3.5.5.6.10.10 Meta AI.10.11 Alphabet 2.12.13.13 PC.14.15.16.17 Robotaxi.18.19 YWEVyRnQpMqRpRsRnQqPnMaQ9R7NoMqQsQsOjMoOtOfQoPmM7NmMyQNZpMzQNZpMwP 3 Table_ReportTypeIndex 5 1 5 1 5 5 A()()4 28 5 11 500+3.23%+5.72%+9.50%TAMAMA+7.53%+14.86%+21.15%+8.12%1 2023SPX.GI 0.55 3.23 1.83 7.50 24.23 25.52IXIC.GI 1.43 5.72 3.18 7.63 43.42 40.55SOX.GI-0.40 9.50 0.92 12.95 64.90 47.728884057.WI 2.38 7.53 6.07 16.54 67.81 34.87HXC.GI 5.53 14.86 8.47 3.19-3.39 22.39HSTECH.HI 6.80 21.15 8.30 6.47-8.83 24.33CI005027.WI 1.70 8.12 0.76-10.88 8.90 95.22 Wind 10 4.50%12bps 4 30 10 2.30%4.88bps 4 30 7.11 4 19 17 AI Meta Alphabet 1 10 2()Wind Wind 4 Table_ReportTypeIndex Meta AI Robotaxi AI AI AI PC XR 4 19 5 3+11.14%+16.52%+23.22%+8.53%+6.63%META-6.05%+1.89%ARM+16.64%-9.65%+13.96%AMD+2.70%2 2024-04-19 2024-05-03AAPL.O 165.00 183.38 11.14 28,119.64 7.37 28.01 20.71 30.87 27.48NVDA.O 762.00 887.89 16.52 22,197.25 36.44 74.59 36.86 280.04 81.42TSLA.O 147.05 181.19 23.22 5,778.50 6.10 42.45 30.98 52.67 62.69HPQ.N 27.81 28.18 1.33 275.74 0.52 8.07 8.24 9.14 0.00CSCO.O 48.32 47.12-2.48 1,907.98 3.33 14.19 16.57 16.28 0.00ASML.O 859.54 901.63 5.08 3,557.74 12.60 46.27 36.70 34.34 44.93AMD.O 146.64 150.60 2.70 2,434.17 10.68 218.12 79.12 278.85 66.74INTC.O 34.20 30.90-9.65 1,315.41 2.38 32.35 13.61 125.43 0.00QCOM.O 157.63 179.64 13.96 2,004.78 5.51 23.91 9.51 22.36 19.37ARM.O ARM 87.19 101.70 16.64 1,045.55 35.59 1,230.06 0.00 147.03 0.00ON.O(ON SEMICONDUCTOR)60.71 70.37 15.91 302.75 3.71 13.92 14.18 16.47 16.080909.HK 1.98 2.86 44.44 55.55 3.04-8.60-10.65-8.66-17.639698.HK 6.02 8.45 40.37 128.81 1.17-2.69-21.99-2.92-6.871686.HK 2.42 2.49 2.89 58.24 2.30 6.42 11.66 7.98 0.002330.TW 750.00 780.00 4.00 234,473.07 9.01 23.24 11.71 18.05 20.392454.TW 993.00 1,040.00 4.73 16,633.18 3.84 21.61 8.46 21.09 0.00GOOGL.O 154.09 167.24 8.53 20,765.82 6.50 25.08 19.04 23.69 23.85AMZN.O 174.63 186.21 6.63 19,378.18 3.28 51.42-314.82 51.61 43.00META.O(META PLATFORMS)481.07 451.96-6.05 11,464.12 8.03 25.05 13.75 23.27 23.33NFLX.O 555.04 579.34 4.38 2,496.38 7.15 38.79 29.21 39.40 34.47PDD.O 113.49 140.18 23.52 1,946.78 5.57 22.97 22.77 22.94 15.68NTES.O 93.51 103.02 10.17 644.55 4.53 15.93 16.34 14.46 15.43BIDU.O 95.05 113.41 19.32 394.30 2.09 13.86 36.42 14.52 12.99TCOM.O 48.00 53.30 11.04 351.46 5.80 26.02 116.72 17.58 28.99BABA.N 69.07 81.33 17.75 2,061.92 1.58 14.67 23.78 18.64 15.319988.HK 66.70 79.20 18.74 16,136.40 1.58 14.63 23.80 18.53 15.280700.HK 303.80 364.40 19.95 34,418.86 5.12 27.07 15.17 21.90 20.5480700.HK 282.00 335.60 19.01 31,254.05 5.20 27.51 0.00 21.86 20.879999.HK 142.80 157.10 10.01 5,044.14 4.42 15.54 16.52 13.96 15.589888.HK 92.50 110.00 18.92 3,085.74 2.08 13.77 36.49 14.48 13.0089888.HK 85.75 101.50 18.37 2,802.01 2.12 14.02 0.00 14.50 13.181024.HK 44.35 62.20 40.25 2,698.03 2.15 38.23-19.96 32.60 20.0581024.HK 41.00 57.20 39.51 2,449.94 2.19 38.79 0.00 32.58 20.329626.HK 85.25 114.50 34.31 482.34 1.94-9.06-8.90-7.41-25.242518.HK 47.75 50.75 6.28 258.51 3.26 12.46 14.79 12.86 12.129898.HK 61.45 74.05 20.50 180.17 1.31 6.73 52.13 7.52 6.97MSFT.O 399.12 406.66 1.89 30,224.21 12.78 35.07 24.58 38.62 34.85SNOW.N SNOWFLAKE 145.45 159.32 9.54 532.45 18.97-63.68-67.89-82.25 0.00ORCL.N 114.88 115.80 0.80 3,182.78 6.06 29.91 32.81 34.08 24.58CRM.N 270.37 273.66 1.22 2,654.50 7.62 64.18 91.82 1224.61 0.00ADBE.O 465.02 486.18 4.55 2,178.09 10.93 45.37 32.69 50.01 38.97INTU.O 605.17 629.27 3.98 1,761.82 11.67 63.60 52.92 73.39 63.98SNPS.O 510.71 536.94 5.14 819.07 13.36 58.19 49.43 63.63 53.59CDNS.O 280.25 281.63 0.49 766.41 18.80 73.20 51.91 71.17 0.00ADSK.O 216.50 215.19-0.61 460.32 8.37 50.81 81.13 63.29 0.00U.N Unity 22.89 24.74 8.08 96.35 4.40-11.66-9.35-18.80 0.000020.HK 0.58 1.60 175.86 535.50 14.24-7.54-10.98-5.46-13.1680020.HK 0.54 1.47 172.22 486.26 14.44-7.64 0.00-5.46-13.283888.HK 23.50 27.05 15.11 362.24 3.84 67.90-5.25 61.69 29.790268.HK 7.28 9.15 25.69 328.83 5.15-141.97-133.49-178.41-1149.599878.HK 28.95 29.90 3.28 168.21 0.18 34.00 70.68 34.57 25.743650.HK KEEP 6.73 9.56 42.05 50.25 2.13 4.12 0.00 6.00-17.560354.HK 4.40 4.95 12.50 140.76 0.74 17.88 24.18 22.39 12.351357.HK 2.92 3.37 15.41 152.83 5.14 36.61 57.75 38.62 28.053896.HK 1.39 1.83 31.65 69.64 0.90-2.90-2.69-3.18 4.672013.HK 1.12 1.55 38.39 47.70 1.93-5.69-8.29-9.62-79.341675.HK 6.79 7.34 8.10 68.65 0.79 11.67 13.73 13.69 6.882121.HK 4.11 5.46 32.85 30.85 1.60-4.80-31.65-8.15-7.832400.HK 13.84 16.22 17.20 77.95 2.08-85.07-16.75-53.48 22.460777.HK 10.50 11.30 7.62 60.03 0.76 9.89 9.71 10.84 5.71 2024-05-03 PE(2022)PE(2023)PE(2024E)Wind qmY2/by/ICUWVDsVEPMLz5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MO6R0eeiv/Xwnp3aQ5bzG8D 5 Table_ReportTypeIndex 18A Panther Lake CPU 2025 CPU Pat Gelsinger 18A Panther Lake CPU 2025 Gelsinger Panther Lake Arrow Lake 2 AI 5 2 6 Let Loose AI 5 7 10 iPad WWDC 2024 6 11 15 AI iOS iPadOS Microsoft 22 Microsoft 5 2 Microsoft Build AI Day 22 1 2 200,000 AI 3 4 Sanctuary AI PHOENIX Sanctuary AI 4 25 PHOENIX AI Carbo 1 2 3 4 AI 5 24 PHOENIX 2023 12 6 Table_ReportTypeIndex 3 PHOENIX Sanctuary AI OpenAI iPhone AI 4 26 OpenAI OpenAI iPhone OpenAI iPhone iOS 18 OpenAI Alphabet 2 IndexGPT 5 3 IndexGPT OpenAI GPT-4 Rui Fernandes IndexGPT(SEC)Gary Gensler AI Gensler AI Claude iOS App Anthropic 5 1 Claude App iOS Claude Claude Claude Claude Pro Claude Team Claude Team 5 Claude 30 Claude Team Anthropic Claude Claude 7 Table_ReportTypeIndex Claude 3 Opus OpenAI GPT-4 Gemini 1.0 Ultra Claude 3 OpenAI ChatGPT Plus OpenAI 4 30 ChatGPT Plus ChatGPT Memory ChatGPT 4 OpenAI OpenAI ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT OpenAI AI 4 30 OpenAI AI OpenAI OpenAI ChatGPT ChatGPT FT 4 30 LinkedIn OpenAI ChatGPT(LLM)OpenAI 1500 8 Table_ReportTypeIndex techcrunch 4 26 OpenAI Startup Fund 1500 OpenAI Startup Fund OpenAI AI 4 19 1500 4 25 OpenAI OpenAI SPV 2024 2 1000 OpenAI Converge 1.75 3.25 Descript;Speak;Mem;IDE Anysphere OPENELM 4 22 OpenELM OpenELM 1:OpenELM 2.7 30(270M 450M 1.1B 3B)2:OpenELM Transformer(Grouped Query Attention,GQA)(Multi-Head Attention,MHA)SwiGLU ReLU RMSNorm 3:OpenELM RefinedWeb deduplicated PILE.RedPajama Dolma v1.6 1.8 token OpenELM 1 Transformer:OpenELM(decoder-only)Transformer 2:OpenELM()3(Grouped Query Attention,GQA):OpenELM GQA(Multi-Head Attention,MHA)GQA phi-3 4 23 phi-3-mini phi-3-small phi-3-medium 1 phi-3-mini:3.8 iPhone 14 Pro iPhone 15 A16 12 token 2 phi-3-small:7 tiktoken 10%phi-3-smalI MMLU 75.3%Meta Llama3 8B Instruct 3 phi-3-medium:14 GPT-3.5 Mixtral 8x7b MoE MMLU 78.2%phi-3-mini MMLU 69%MT-bench 8.38 phi-3-small phi-3-medium MMLU 75.3%78.2%9 Table_ReportTypeIndex 5 phi-3 phi-3-mini 3.8 8B Lama3 Meta Llama-3-8B-Instruct phi-3-small(7B)MMLU(75.3%vs66%)Snowflake-Arctic Snowflake-Arctic 480(480B)128(MoE)SQL Arctic 1 Arctic 480 170 2(Dense Transformer)128 MoE 3.66 3 4K 32K 4 SQL Snowflake Arctic DBRX Llama Mixtral Arctic MMLU 6 Arctic Snowflake Arctic Hugging Face Relicate 10 Table_ReportTypeIndex 7 Arctic Snowflake Adobe Firefly Image 3 Foundation Model Photoshop Adobe 4 23 Photoshop AI Photoshop AI Firefly Image 3 Foundation Model Adobe Firefly Image 3 Firefly Image3 1 Firefly3 2 3 4 4 26 Meta AI Meta 2024 3 31 FY2024Q1 AI FY2024Q1 364.55 YoY+27.26%123.69 YoY+116.66%4.71 YoY+114.17%99.78 YoY+6.36%25.64 YoY-15.77%34.55 YoY+19.76%11 Table_ReportTypeIndex Family of Apps FoA 360.15 YoY+27.23%FoA 356.35 YoY+26.81%Temu SHEIN 20%6%3.80 YoY+85.37%WhatsApp Reality Labs RL 4.40 YoY+29.79%Meta Quest RL FY2024Q2 365390 AI FY2024 350400 AI Llama-3 AI AI Meta AI Llama 3 8 Meta FY2024Q1 2024 3 31 FY2024Q3 FY2024Q3 618.58 YoY+17.03%219.39 YoY+19.89%2.94 YoY+20.00%Azure 31%29%76.53 YoY+9.58%62.07 YoY+7.95%19.12 16.37%195.7 YoY+11.73%267.08 YoY+20.95%Azure 31%155.8 YoY+17.50%Xboc 12 Table_ReportTypeIndex 62%Activision Microsoft 365 Consumer 8080 911%1920%Azure 3031%1013%FY2025 FY2024 Azure OpenAI 65%500 Microsoft Fabric Azure AI 11,000 GitHub Copilot 180 35%Microsoft 365 Copilot 60%500 Copilot LinkedIn LinkedIn 29%1.4 Xbox 62%Switch PlayStation 9 FY2024Q1 Alphabet 2 Alphabet 2024 3 31 FY2024Q1 2 FY2024Q1 805.39 YoY+15.41%236.62 YoY+57.21%1.89 YoY+61.54%6 461.56 YoY+14.36%2.13 119.03 YoY+3.79%64.26 YoY-1.64%30.26 YoY-19.50%703.98 YoY+13.62%616.59 YoY+13.04%87.39 YoY+17.89%95.74 YoY+28.44%4.95 YoY+71.88%3 31 1000 60%AI 90%AI 13 Table_ReportTypeIndex 10 Alphabet FY2024Q1 2024 3 31 FY2024Q1 AWS FY2024Q3 1433.13 YoY+12.53%104.31 YoY+228.85%0.98 YoY+216.13%546.7 YoY+6.99%52.02 YoY+6.27%345.96 YoY+16.02%118.24 YoY+24.35%107.22 YoY+11.03%;AWS 250.37 YoY+17.25%12.62 YoY+22.88%FY2024Q2 14401490 11 Y2024Q1 2024 3 24 FY2024Q2 FY2024Q2 93.89 YoY+1.23%23.26 YoY+36.50%2.06 70.49 YoY-1.89%22.36 YoY+1.18%7.07 YoY+15.15%QCT 80.26 YoY+1.06%80 QTL 13.18 YoY+2.17%QCT 61.80 YoY+1.23%8Gen+AI OEM 6.03 YoY+34.90%14 Table_ReportTypeIndex Snapdragon Digital Chassis IoT 12.43 YoY-10.58%QTL 3g/4G/5G AI GenAI OEMs OPPO OnePlus Vivo QCT QTL 2.27 YoY-5.81%2024 8896 GAAP 2.15 2.35 QCT 7581 Qualcomm AI Hub 100 AI 4 450 FY2026 40 XR AR1 Gen 1 Meta Meta Horizon OS QCC730 WiFi SoC RB3 Gen 2 QCC730 88%RB3 Gen 2 12 FY2024Q2 PC 2024 3 30 FY2024Q2 FY2024Q2 907.53 YoY-4.31%236.36 YoY-2.17%1.53 0.66%79.03 YoY+5.98%64.68 YoY+4.31%15 Table_ReportTypeIndex Mac iPhone 459.63 YoY-10.46%iPhone 14 Pro Pro iPhone M3 Macbook MacBook Air 13 MacBook Air 15 Mac 74.51 YoY+3.95%iPad 55.59 YoY-16.66%79.13 YoY-9.64%Apple Watch Airpods 238.67 YoY+14.16%App Store iPad 1100 ipad 6 13 FY2024Q2 2024 3 31 FY2024Q3 FY2024Q3 38.50 YoY+200.01%5.05%4.02 YoY+368.82%9%15%6.56 YoY+328.76%5.58 AI Building Block PnP DLC 40%16 Table_ReportTypeIndex FY2024Q3 1.16 YoY+49.94%4,969.1 YoY+96.31%5,313.7 YoY+117.33%36.99 YoY+217.82%GPU HPC ASP ASP 1.52 YoY+26.76%FY2024Q4 5155 FY2024 147151 NVIDIA HGX H100 SuperCluster GPU AI 14 FY2024Q3 3 31 FY2024Q1 5926.4 YoY+16.5%5.3%HPC 2254.9 YoY+8.9%53.1%YoY-3.2pct 14%42.0%YoY-3.5pct 3nm 9%5nm 7nm 37%19%7nm 65%17 Table_ReportTypeIndex 46%38%IoT DCE 6%6%2%2%2024 280320 7080%1020%10%196 204 6%27.6%5153%4042%4 3 3 nm 10%14%19%4 N4 2025 2nm 2028 2 12/16 22/28nm 40 12/16 6/7 nm HPC 2027 15 FY2024Q1 Cadence 2024 3 31 FY2024Q1 10.09 YoY-1.23%2.28 YoY+2.41%IC IC IP 22%29%25%12%12%3.79 Dynamic Duo Palladium Z3 Protium X3 50%Cadence Reality Digital Twin Platform AI 30%EDA IBM 3D IC Arm 18 Table_ReportTypeIndex AI PCB 3DEXPERIENCE Works FY2024Q2 10.3 10.5 GAAP 26.527.5%GAAP 0.730.77 2024 45.646.2 GAAP 3132%GAAP 4.044.14 16 FY2024Q1 Robotaxi 2024 3 31 FY2024Q1 Robotaxi 213.01 YoY-8.69%11.29 YoY-55.07%38.7 173.78 YoY-12.9%16.35 YoY+7%22.88 YoY+25%Model 3 Model Y 27,000 Model 3 Cybertruck 11.51 YoY+49.29%13.73 YoY+27.70%FY2024Q1 1 Model 2 22025 2 Optimus 2024 2025 3 Cycbercab Airbnb 8 4 FSD FSD FSD 5 Semi Truck 2025 2026 Robotaxi 2024 8 19 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2024 17 FY2024Q1 20 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1 10.3 2().3 3“PHOENIX”.6 4 OpenAI“”.7 5 phi-3.9 6 Arctic.9 7 Arctic.10 8 Meta FY2024Q1.11 9 FY2024Q1.12 10 Alphabet FY2024Q1.13 11 Y2024Q1.13 12 FY2024Q2.14 13 FY2024Q2.15 14 FY2024Q3.16 15 FY2024Q1.17 16 FY2024Q1.18 17 FY2024Q1.19 1.3 2.4 21 Table_ReportTypeIndex Table_AuthorsRxplain TMT/10 PE Table_Avow Table_RatingStandard 6 12 A 300 50 10%-5%10%5%20%5%20%-5%5%5%Table_Contacts 3088 20 0755-83471683chengxi_ 0755-83479312suyiyun_ 99 31 021-60387901luyunru_ 021-20252671liyangyang_ 8 1 010-嫚 010-80927722tangmanling_