20240521_国信证券_白羽肉鸡行业投资框架2024年版_31页.pdf
|2024 05 21 2024 021-S0980520110002 021-S0980523030001 010-关键结论 1 2 选股思路 1 2 股价驱动因素 相关标的 1 2 风险因素 20YAZzQrMpMqRoQnOtOrOrQaQ9R8OoMrRpNtPlOnNqNfQtRnP8OnNuNwMpPoMvPoMsN 01 02 03 04 80 90%+2022 64%36%4 52%15%19%6%24%38%5%9%20%6%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2005 2022 AA+308 901 2 18886%36%14%64%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2022 9rrtQA1NCROgpVHvrZzcJJKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MOFRUumZZiaGSpda0bXfGNY 50%70%30%20%2022 10%CR10 45.4%5 70%2021 2021 2022 2022 1 28.76 42%34.69 46%2 13.25 19%13.51 18%3 5.62 8%6.20 8%4 4.11 6%4.21 6%5 3.12 5%3.60 5%6 2.88 4%3.20 4%7 2.65 4%2.68 4%8 3.32 5%2.57 3%9 1.54 2%1.59 2%10 3.41 5%2.91 4%68.66 100%75.16 100%2022 CR10 45%2022 2022 1 7.51 10.0%2 6.10 8.1%3 4.60 6.1%CR3 24.2%4 3.10 4.1%5 2.70 3.6%CR5 31.9%6 2.40 3.2%7 2.40 3.2%8 2.00 2.7%9 1.90 2.5%10 1.40 1.9%CR10 45.4%6 iFinD iFinD iFinD 051015202505001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002011-06-102011-12-102012-06-102012-12-102013-06-102013-12-102014-06-102014-12-102015-06-102015-12-102016-06-102016-12-102017-06-102017-12-102018-06-102018-12-102019-06-102019-12-102020-06-102020-12-102021-06-102021-12-102022-06-102022-12-102023-06-102023-12-10-22:/-0246810121405001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002011-06-102011-12-102012-06-102012-12-102013-06-102013-12-102014-06-102014-12-102015-06-102015-12-102016-06-102016-12-102017-06-102017-12-102018-06-102018-12-102019-06-102019-12-102020-06-102020-12-102021-06-102021-12-102022-06-102022-12-102023-06-102023-12-10-:/-(80)(60)(40)(20)020406080-(%)-(%)-(%)-(%)7%iFinD iFinD(10)0102030402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10.64 51.72 22.66 21.63 0102030405060 1940s-1960s 1960s-1980s 1980s-2000s 2000s-21 8 1980s NCC iFinD 010203040506070809010019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018 1.01-0.605.887.344.628.688.437.4314.567.46(10)(5)05101520253035-202468101214162013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-%9 1980s NCC iFinD 050100150200250/01 02 03 04 1 2 58 24 3 22 3 6 58 147 42 60 47 120 7200 1:7200 11 2015 1 2015-2018 80 2022 2 9 H5N1 2022 12 52.349.568.178.693.696.6118.2138.2154.2118.17264.968.774.5122.4100.3124.696.3127.99(60)(40)(20)0204060800204060801001201401601802005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2019-2020 40/2019 13/2019-2020 13 2019-2020 USDA 65.30%52.10%21.30%35.60%13.40%12.30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2000 2020(15,000)(10,000)(5,000)05,00010,00015,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:01020304050024681012142011-06-102011-12-102012-06-102012-12-102013-06-102013-12-102014-06-102014-12-102015-06-102015-12-102016-06-102016-12-102017-06-102017-12-102018-06-102018-12-102019-06-102019-12-102020-06-102020-12-102021-06-102021-12-102022-06-102022-12-10:/22:/2015 10-2017 2 2014 2015 10 2017 2-2021 10 57 2015-2018 2019 2019 1-2021 2 14 2015-2017 2017-2021 2011 15/2012 2-2013 4 15 9.91 6.78 1 2+H7N9 2013 4-2015 10 31 10.41 5.29 1 H7N9 2&2015 10-2017 2 17 9.74 4.21 1&2&2017 2-2021 10 57 13.12 6.77 1&2&01 02 03 04 80 90 17 80 USDA USDA 020406080100120196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020 024681012141618201990 1990 1990 19901991 1991 19911992 1992 1992 19921993 1993 19931994 1994 19941995 1995 1995 19951996 1996 19961997 1997 19971998 1998 1998 19981999 1999 19992000 2000 20002001 2001 2001 20012002 2002 20022003 2003 20032004 2004 2004 20042005 2005 20052006 2006 20062007 2007 2007 20072008 2008 20082009 2009 2009 20092010 2010 20102011 2011 20112012 2012 2012 20122013 2013 20132014 2014 20142015 2015 2015 20152016 2016 20162017 2017 20172018 2018 2018 20182019 2019 2019:817 817 8000 18 2002-2022 CAGR 1.97%817 USDA=+2025 5-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%020004000600080001000012000140001600018000:yoy48.58%48.40%37.23%29.95%7.08%13.36%7.11%8.02%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2021 817-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000020000300004000050000600002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E2024E2025E yoy B 19 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X C 2021-2022 01 02 03 04 1 2 21 ROE(%)2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 002458.SZ 20.90 21.12 32.25 0.28-3.67 5.41 0.90-13.39 12.23 002234.SZ 17.75 16.09 20.74 0.48-4.52-3.86 1.52-16.91-16.89 002299.SZ 144.78 168.17 184.87 4.48 4.11 6.64 4.52 4.14 6.44 603609.SH 294.69 328.12 359.70 1.19 5.14-4.57 1.83 7.10-6.86 301116.SZ 164.14 187.15 218.88 1.17 0.52-1.71 7.90 2.65-9.73 002746.SZ 33.12 51.02 57.81 0.82 1.28 2.26 1.87 2.89 4.92 605567.SH 20.33 24.95 27.96 0.57 0.79-0.35 5.19 6.89-3.25 Wind 2023 29.80 92%7.22 6.45 909 7682+11%1/3 1/10 22 iFinD iFinD 0100,000,000200,000,000300,000,000400,000,000500,000,000600,000,000700,000,000800,000,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 8 6 5 8 6 16 7 15 36 18 21 21 32(100)(50)050100150200051015202530354020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023()(%)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050010001500200025003000350040002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()23 iFinD iFinD iFinD 40 7 50 2023 901 B C 0-1 2023 40%(10)0102030405060050100150200()(%)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 iFinD iFinD iFinD 2023 2.67 8.48 20.74 28.96%3 1/6(60)(40)(20)02040608010005101520253035()(%)851.06664.32 668.62840.991,115.002,257.47875.56 935.40 564.58748.8405001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002019 2020 2021 2022 2023-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 iFinD iFinD 29 2023 430.52+8%164.70 46%11 2023 112.12 31%75%0510152025303540050100150200250300350400()(%)77.86121.10153.57 156.43164.7065.9971.6982.5592.84112.1227.5031.5136.7751.8052.992.027.5714.8820.5825.760501001502002503003504002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 26 iFinD iFinD iFinD 2023 53.19+13%2.63+53%1.2 21 2023 4,780.96 2024 2.5-2.7 70(20)(10)0102030405060010203040506070()(%)32.9730.0531.9148.6655.820102030405060702019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 27 iFinD iFinD iFinD/2023 67.12 31%92 42%B 2023 30%(20)020406080100120050100150200250()(%)77.4770.2375.3783.3891.9444.5440.7949.1157.6667.1213.7020.8125.5530.4530.758.522.844.445.909.370501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 28 iFinD iFinD iFinD 2020 43%37%B C 30 B C 2023 537 487 1.4 2023 TOP1 2772 1714 13.3215.9919.4318.6320.3324.9527.96(10)(5)05101520250510152025302017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()(%)9.82 10.09 10.6011.98 11.908.40 7.78 7.127.1210.402.455.695.510510152025302019 2020 2021 2022 2023-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 29 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
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