20240507_开源证券_农林牧渔行业2024年中期投资策略：猪周期拐点渐近养殖链全面受益_77页.pdf
2024 S0790520030001 S0790123060055 2024 5 7 1.1 2024 3 3992 2022 12 9.1%8.5%2 2023 9-11 2024 2024 3 2.2024 1 2022 5-12 2024 2 3.4.5.7 6.WUBYuNtOoNpOoQnOqNrOqRbR9R6MoMnNmOtPkPoOnQkPrRuM9PqQwOwMnOnRNZmNnN1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 2024 71.1 52%2024 2022 10 28.3/17 2023 3 13.4/52%52%2024 1 52%2023 9-11 Wind e8LQ0s+KyzS2GcDxkT5uo5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MO3lRKglRQ7o70yuxjcWIkl 1.1 2017-2023 TOP20 7%28%2023M1-2024M3 15 9.1%2021M6-2022M4 11 8.5%2023M9-M11 2024 3 9.1%2021 2 2017-2023 TOP20 7%28%Wind Wind 7%10%11%15%20%24%28%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023TOP20 5.1%-6.3%1.7%-29.6%52.1%-8.5%5.1%-9.1%-35%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%45%55%200025003000350040004500%1.1 5 4 34%17%29%12%8%12%14%17%14%43%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2019M6 2023M121.1 6/1 2023 2023 2017 6663 9.17%6579 9.55%6286 8.65%6220 9.03%6102 8.40%6116 8.88%4660 6.41%4700 6.83%4627 6.37%4300 6.24%4439 6.11%3571 5.19%3794 5.22%3501 5.08%3700 5.09%3459 5.02%3517 4.84%3355 4.87%3144 4.33%3181 4.62%1.42 1.18 0.46 0.41 0.36 0.20 0.16 0.03-0.38-0.52 0.06 0.85-0.26 0.27 0.30 0.05 0.26 0.26 0.13 0.04-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.50 2018 2023 1.1 3 2024 3 2023 9-11 2023 5-6 8 2023 7 1015202530354010121416182022242628302022()2023()2024()2020()2021()0510152025302020 2021 2022 2023 20241.1 2024 4 28 150kg 5.79%2023 Mysteel 3 7-49kg 50-89kg 90-140kg 140kg 34.66%29.38%34.75%1.21%-0.67pct+0.43 pct+0.94 pct-0.70pct 2023 10 2023 9 150kg 2023 Mysteel 36.39%35.33%34.66%28.35%28.95%29.38%32.85%33.81%34.75%2.41%1.91%1.21%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%7-49kg 50-89kg 90-140kg 140kg4.0%9.0%14.0%19.0%24.0%29.0%2020 2021 2022 2023 20241.1 2024H2 2024 4 28 126.67/-0.06/2024H2 12 4 11 1012141618202224262830-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0 120kg 150kg 115120125130135140W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W492021 2022 2023 20241.2 2024 4 24 3.16/2023 3.46/2023 3.69/14%2021 80-110kg 90kg 130kg 3 10/120kg 130kg 3.2 15/40 2/13 3.16/2021 Wind(/)120 125 130 135 140 145 15014.00 13.88 13.75 13.63 13.56 13.50 13.44 13.39 14.50 14.26 14.11 13.97 13.89 13.82 13.75 13.69 15.00 14.63 14.47 14.32 14.23 14.14 14.06 13.99 15.50 15.01 14.83 14.67 14.56 14.46 14.37 14.29 16.00 15.38 15.19 15.01 14.89 14.79 14.68 14.59 16.50 15.76 15.55 15.36 15.23 15.11 14.99 14.89 17.00 16.13 15.91 15.70 15.56 15.43 15.30 15.19 17.50 16.51 16.27 16.05 15.89 15.75 15.62 15.49 18.00 16.88 16.63 16.40 16.23 16.07 15.93 15.79 3.16 2.202.603.003.403.80/1.2 2 2024 4 11-20 5.45%2023 42%5-7 15 42%14 2 42%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%5.45%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%1.2 2023 9-11 2024 2 2 2024 2-7 2024H2 3 2024H2 16 2-7 15035055075095011501350155017501200125013001350140014501500155016002021M22021M42021M62021M82021M102021M122022M22022M42022M62022M82022M102022M122023M22023M42023M62023M82023M102023M122024M2E2024M4E2024M6E2024M8E 15kg/(/)7kg/-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%413 440 468 495 523 550 578 605 633 660 688-25%2.40 12.58 12.84 13.09 13.35 13.60 13.86 14.11 14.37 14.62 14.88 15.13-20%2.56 13.02 13.27 13.53 13.78 14.04 14.29 14.55 14.80 15.06 15.31 15.57-15%2.72 13.45 13.71 13.96 14.22 14.47 14.73 14.98 15.24 15.49 15.75 16.00-10%2.88 13.89 14.14 14.40 14.65 14.91 15.16 15.42 15.67 15.93 16.18 16.44-5%3.04 14.32 14.58 14.83 15.09 15.34 15.60 15.85 16.11 16.36 16.62 16.87 0%3.20 14.76 15.01 15.27 15.52 15.78 16.03 16.29 16.54 16.80 17.05 17.31 5%3.36 15.20 15.45 15.70 15.96 16.21 16.47 16.72 16.98 17.23 17.49 17.74 10%3.52 15.63 15.88 16.14 16.39 16.65 16.90 17.16 17.41 17.67 17.92 18.18 15%3.68 16.07 16.32 16.57 16.83 17.08 17.34 17.59 17.85 18.10 18.36 18.61 20%3.84 16.50 16.76 17.01 17.26 17.52 17.77 18.03 18.28 18.54 18.79 19.05 25%4.00 16.94 17.19 17.45 17.70 17.95 18.21 18.46 18.72 18.97 19.23 19.48 1.2 2024H2 2023 5 2024 5 2024 2024 2023 2024H2 4 17 1997-1998 2014-2016 2016 6 7 1998 7 2019-2020 2020 1998 1961 2023-2024 1.2 2024 3 3992 2021 2023 2024H1 19 18 2021 Wind-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%399228003000320034003600380040004200440046001.2 4-5 6-8 2024 8 2023 21 2024Q4 20 2024 Wind Wind-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%0.850.900.951.001.051.101.15M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122023 2024 2024yoy 2024mom-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%0.800.850.900.951.001.051.101.15M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122023 2024 2024yoy 2024mom1.3 3 61.69 15 708/400-450/70%23/70%22 Wind-2000-1500-1000-500050010001500:40%50%60%70%80%90%51015202530354045/%1.3 3 2022 12 15 2024 4 2025 2 25 24 Wind Wind 20%21%21%22%22%23%23%24%24%M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122021 2022 2023 20245321988-1245-3369919167613020526-28-5516295-3500-2500-1500-50050015002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 1.32020-2021 GP GGP 2024 8 2019 2020-2021 2021 7 GP GGP 50%2023 7 2024 7 27 2024 7 26 2021 7 4 50kg 0200040006000800010000120001.3 2024 2023 PSY 22.67 PSY 20.09 2022 21.13 PSY 2024 2024 3 29 28 2023 PSY151719212325272016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PSY PSY PSY1.3 2024 3 50 1574/2021 2025 6 2024 31 2024 30 100015002000250030003500400045002021 2022 2023 20241.4 Wind Wind 33 32 2.542.352.722.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.5 13182328333830323436384042444648502023/2/242023/3/242023/4/242023/5/242023/6/242023/7/242023/8/242023/9/242023/10/242023/11/242023/12/242024/1/242024/2/242024/3/242024/4/24 1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 2024 72.12023+18.1%2023 130.22 55.25%2020 C 35 34 47.654.260.26660.972.039.645.244.240.537.336.012.815.416.719.120.422.318.1%-3.5%9.4%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()()()yoy yoy yoy2.2 2024 Wind Wind 37 36 7.58.08.59.09.510.0141618202224M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122012-2018()2019-2023()2012-2018()2019-2023()4.56.58.510.512.514.516.518.59.513.517.521.525.529.533.537.52014-082015-022015-082016-022016-082017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-082024-02/2.3 2024 2024 2022 5-12 60 14 2023Q3 2024 38 24 60 2.3 2024 2024 2022 9 2023 10 2023 11 2024 12 2023 901 42%2024 Mysteel 40 2023 901 42%39 2022M9-2023M10 10121416182022242628309095100105110115120125130135 47%46%31%28%17%24%32%34%35%28%21%10%25%10%13%5%11%10%27%22%9%11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%AA+/308 901 188 2 2.3 2024 2024 24 27 1 30 65 68 1 1-42 42 2024 10 42 42 2024 10 41 42 7080901001101201301402019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20241000200030004000500060007000800090001000075859510511512513518W1618W3619W419W2419W4420W1220W3220W5221W1921W3922W722W2722W4723W1523W3524W324W2324W43 42 2.4 1 2 2024 Wind 44 43 27121722274.55.56.57.58.59.510.511.5/165002150026500315003650041500240290340390440490540590640690M M+9 2.4 1 2022 5-12 2024 2 A 7 45 A 7 123目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 2024 73.1 150 2015 CAGR 6.40%2022 673.45 165.67 80%94%2022 154.96 yoy-5.08%2015-2022 CAGR 6.40%46 2022 673.45 150 3.1 2007-2021 500 75.77%2015-2023 43%68%2023 6 2023 2030 2030 83%2023 87/47 48 Wind 1012141618202224262830012345678 43%45%47%49%53%57%60%65%68%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20233.2 2024 2024 49 2024H2 50 Wind Wind 23456789100510152025303540(/24.33 23.48 28.63 20304050607080901001103.3 2016 2022 2022-2025 2025 2013 61%2022 31%5 51 2022 51.1 31%2022-20252022-01(),2025 2020-112020-2021 10 2022 2025 2020 2019-12,2020 2019-12 2016-07 2004-02 1997-07,18.25,11%,58.17,35%,17.84,11%,48.63,29%,15.01,9%,4.25,3%,3.52,2%3.3 2016 2022()6 2017 7 2010-2016 2017-2022 O A O A,H5()H7,5 3.3 72%2024-2025 6.5 4100 2 1 1ml 1 2ml 2 3ml 3 3ml 2022-2025 90%1.4/ml 0.5/ml 2025 31.31 2022 18.25 72%8 2025 31 2022 72%6.5 0.41 2 3 ml)3 9 90%90%ml)19.5 3.7/ml)1.5(/ml 0.52024 26.672025 28.992025 31.31 2024/2025 70%/80%20%/10%3.4 ASFV DNA 260 5 3 150 50%ASFV 52 Nan Wang et al Architecture of African swine fever virus and implications for viral assembly 3.4 53 54(/)16.30 18.31 3.89 2.53.03.54.010.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.0 3.4 2010-2018 13.49/2022 16.30/0.74/125/93 2 20/50/9 Wind 2010-2018/13.49 15.292022/16.30 18.312010-2018/3.09 3.092022/3.89 3.89 2.6 2.6/2.80 3.02/2.06 2.06/0.74 0.96/125 125 93 119/40 40/53 793.4 2023 7.27 3.81%6.5 2 20/10/260.0 30%78.0 39.0 10 40/2 78.0 25 30 35 40 45 50 10%16.3 19.5 22.8 26.0 29.3 32.5 20%32.5 39.0 45.5 52.0 58.5 65.0 30%48.8 58.5 68.3 78.0 87.8 97.5 40%65.0 78.0 91.0 104.0 117.0 130.0 50%81.3 97.5 113.8 130.0 146.3 162.5 60%97.5 117.0 136.5 156.0 175.5 195.0 70%113.8 136.5 159.3 182.0 204.8 227.5 80%130.0 156.0 182.0 208.0 234.0 260.0 90%146.3 175.5 204.8 234.0 263.3 292.5 100%162.5 195.0 227.5 260.0 292.5 325.0 5 10 15 20 25 30 10%3.3 6.5 9.8 13.0 16.3 19.5 20%6.5 13.0 19.5 26.0 32.5 39.0 30%9.8 19.5 29.3 39.0 48.8 58.5 40%13.0 26.0 39.0 52.0 65.0 78.0 50%16.3 32.5 48.8 65.0 81.3 97.5 60%19.5 39.0 58.5 78.0 97.5 117.0 70%22.8 45.5 68.3 91.0 113.8 136.5 80%26.0 52.0 78.0 104.0 130.0 156.0 90%29.3 58.5 87.8 117.0 146.3 175.5 100%32.5 65.0 97.5 130.0 162.5 195.0 11 20/2 39.03.4 2024 2024 12/83%-100%mRNA mRNA I177 1 23目 录CONTENTS 4 5 6 2024 74.1 55 a b 4.1 56 1500-2000 500 t 95%WNPAAC 4.2 1 4.67/-20%2023/2024 1400-18%2 3 3.82/-6%2023/2024 2330-17%57 4.67/58 3 3.82/USDA USDA 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/232023/24 2024 4 81.32 100.47 212.02 223.02 222.53 210.16 200.53 205.70 209.14 206.04 215.65 224.63 263.61 259.07 257.17 260.78 260.67 272.55 277.20 288.84 5.52 3.17 2.46 3.46 4.48 7.60 29.51 21.88 18.71 23.00 140.00 153.50 185.00 187.00 191.00 193.00 203.00 209.00 218.00 225.00 202.00 217.50 255.00 263.00 274.00 278.00 285.00 291.00 299.00 306.00 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 100.46 110.77 223.02 222.53 210.16 200.53 205.70 209.14 206.04 211.86 49.73%50.93%87.46%84.61%76.70%72.13%72.18%71.87%68.91%69.24%59 3 13 2023/2024 69.24%USDA 2021/22 2021/2022 0500100015002000250030003500/4.2 Wind 4 USDA 2023/2024 69.24%2022/2023 2016/2017-2018/2019 76.70%-87.46%3 70%2024H2 14 2023/2024 26.27%USDA 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/232023/24 2024 4 175.03 209.82 311.48 351.96 340.97 321.07 306.37 292.94 310.79 302.19 1012.84 963.32 1123.41 1080.09 1124.92 1116.52 1125.88 1216.13 1157.74 1227.86 123.47 139.68 135.59 149.93 164.42 165.36 185.60 184.43 172.84 187.47 583.83 599.42 656.07 672.36 703.88 714.35 722.91 743.28 729.57 758.95 980.29 961.31 1084.14 1090.45 1144.82 1134.60 1140.10 1198.29 1166.34 1211.77 141.67 120.02 160.06 148.24 181.71 171.72 182.12 206.39 180.23 200.59 207.58 211.83 350.75 341.60 321.07 302.99 292.15 310.79 302.19 318.28 21.18%22.04%32.35%31.33%28.05%26.70%25.62%25.94%25.91%26.27%0100200300400500600700800900CBOT/4.2 60 2022 6 CBOT Wind 4 USDA 2023/2024 26.27%2022/2023 5 26%62 1 2023/2024 1.55-4%3.38/-7%2 2023/2024 5000+100%3.03/+75%USDA USDA 61 3.38/-7%4.3 15 2023/24 31.19%USDA 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/232023/24 2024 4 13.88 17.01 17.14 20.12 23.06 19.46 26.79 28.86 25.15 32.34 12.15 11.79 13.64 15.28 15.97 18.10 19.60 16.40 20.28 20.84 78.35 83.23 93.50 94.10 82.54 98.53 99.76 90.30 104.50 105.00 74.50 81.30 88.00 90.00 85.00 91.50 93.00 90.00 96.00 98.00 87.20 95.00 103.50 106.30 102.00 109.20 111.60 110.30 117.50 120.50 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.10 17.03 16.91 20.66 23.06 19.46 26.80 34.48 25.15 32.34 37.58 19.53%17.80%19.96%21.69%19.08%24.54%30.90%22.80%27.52%31.19%01000200030004000500060007000/4.3 63 2022 10 Wind 4 USDA 2023/2024 2084+2.76%3758+16.20%31.19%2014/2015 16 2023/2024 29.97%USDA 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/232023/24 2024 4 61.77 77.53 80.41 94.80 100.66 114.48 96.84 98.64 93.09 101.31 319.55 313.02 349.31 342.09 361.04 339.00 367.76 360.45 378.20 396.73 122.08 133.40 144.22 153.23 145.88 164.97 165.38 154.47 167.87 170.33 262.08 275.44 287.28 294.61 298.53 311.45 315.00 316.51 315.03 328.03 299.69 314.59 330.78 338.03 344.28 357.01 362.38 366.03 365.76 381.08 125.97 132.24 147.50 153.08 148.83 165.05 164.48 154.43 172.09 173.06 77.73 77.13 95.65 99.02 114.48 96.38 103.11 93.09 101.31 114.22 25.94%24.52%28.92%29.29%33.25%27.00%28.45%25.43%27.70%29.97%0200400600800100012001400160018002000CBOT/4.3 64 CBOT 2014 Wind 4 USDA 2023/2024 3.97+4.90%1.14+12.74%29.97%2014/2015 65 2020 USDA 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/232023/24 2024 4 65.27 76.11 97.00 114.93 131.20 139.77 150.02 139.12 136.76 138.82 126.21 130.19 133.27 134.33 131.43 133.59 134.25 136.95 137.72 136.59 1.93 3.48 4.41 3.94 3.15 5.38 10.62 9.57 13.28 11.00 16.00 10.50 17.00 17.50 20.00 19.00 40.00 35.00 33.00 37.00 116.50 112.00 119.00 121.00 125.00 126.00 150.00 148.00 148.00 153.50 0.80 0.73 0.75 1.00 1.01 1.05 0.76 0.88 0.95 0.90 76.11 97.04 114.93 131.20 139.77 151.68 144.12 136.76 138.82 132.01 65.33%86.64%96.58%108.43%111.82%120.38%96.08%92.41%93.80%86.00%18 2023/2024 86.00%17 2024/2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 1007.64 1012.94 1028.91 1026.5 1040.88 1140.79 100.00%800.52 801.01 810.94 803.61 812.94 899.43 78.84%438.65 450.25 470.08 469.54 482.56 559.8 49.07%361.87 350.76 340.86 334.07 330.38 339.63 29.77%13.85 13.75 13.05 11.89 15.24 12.94 1.13%207.12 211.93 217.97 222.89 227.94 241.36 21.16%29.22 30.74 35.57 34.62 41.09 45.21 3.96%177.9 181.19 182.4 188.27 186.85 196.15 17.19%4.4 23602360236023602300224022402260230023402360210022002300240025002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024/2022-2024/2580/2620/2022 1361.91/67 2019 66 2024 4.5409 454 469 470 479 485 498 515 526 542 569 645 328 427 489 501 509 495 483 474 474 467 462 457 160 175 193 206 215 222 229 235 241 244 250 260 897 1055 1151 1177 1202 1202 1210 1224 1242 1254 1281 1362 0300600900120015002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/25402700266026002400 24002420244024802520254025802760 276027202520 2520254025602580 2580258026203100 310030002600 2600 2600 26002620 2620 2620200024002800320036002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024/4.6 2023 1238+1.06%/300/200 2021 CR5 51%7668 CR5 12%/5 34.21%/33.24%/16.96%2016 2023 6473 2014 Wind 68 2021 CR5=12%CR5=51%69 2016 4.6 2022 500 2022 10 5 2022 82 534 100 19 2020-2022 10 2020 2021 2022 1 489 485 5672 534 477 534 455 534 4613 323 359 534 3504 390 295 534 312 822 2885 1377 282 272 2806 534 262 253 2757 2115 250 822 238 2618 1212 236 C 225 2115 2329 222 390 216 390 22610 C 210 898 202 C 2104.6 303 958 303 2022 303 958 505 839 2022 3441 958 20 2020-2022 10 2020 2021 2022 1 958 2798 958 1825 303 16212 968 1493 303 1501 958 14533 303 1460 505 1304 505 13774 605 1272 968 1302 968 12425 505 1168 605 1288 605 12196 335 1132 335 833 3 6097 808 543 622 1331 5318 702 485 808 480 335 4759 206 439 702 478 368 45010 20 370 1331 458 839 443 70 2024+4.79%+7.04%2024-2026 5.03/5.77/6.40+4.79%/+14.71%/+10.92%2024-2026+7.04%/+3.81%/+4.00%2024-2026 21.92/24.52/26.69+7.45%/+11.86%/+8.85%2024-2026+3.85%/+4.18%/+3.56%4.6 71 2024+7.45%+3.85%3.603.804.104.003.803.513.304.805.035.776.402.452.302.25 2.252.202.352.70 2.702.893.003.12-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%012345672016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E YoY YoY 20.0018.0016.21 16.40 16.4014.7016.5020.4021.9224.5226.6911.5011.00 11.00 11.0010.6011.0011.50 12.2012.6713.2013.67-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0510152025302016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E YoY YoY 4
报告吧