20240509_银河证券_白酒行业：现阶段板块机会大于风险_13页.pdf

2023 2024 2024 2022 15%+2024 2024-2025 1 11 2 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 C T abl e _ R es earch-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 .3 2024.4.6.7.8.1ZCXyRtOtQmNrPnOnQqPnM7N8QaQmOnNnPtPjMpPqNfQrQoO9PpPwOuOqMqRMYnOxO 18 A 2023 2024Q1 15%+2022 24Q1 15%+3 2021 3+22Q2 2 22Q4-23Q1 2023 24Q1 2023 2022 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 18%16%15%17%19%20%13%20%18%13%10%12%10%13%5%17%14%12%26%24%22%16%21%30%9%21%44%0%33%50%20%32%14%27%21%24%17%18%6%16%16%11%-22%8%83%-16%31%6%7%32%8%28%4%14%10%7%-25%-40%2%51%9%86%5%2%-27%-43%-32%-37%22%-49%28%30%22%25%25%27%23%9%26%25%14%26%28%27%31%27%23%37%2%24%16%22%29%22%19%21%12%-8%6%-2%21%34%5%10%11%20%25%28%-5%10%10%13%18%13%17%3%-19%-8%25%31%43%7%-3%39%12%-9%1%27%21%48%17%20%15%5%-60%-33%19%-6%144%86%12%11%-14%-23%-14%-6%53%44%42%33%-29%-30%7%-21%5%-19%0%-31%-1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1营收增速 营收增速（不含 茅五）0%10%20%30%40%50%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1归母净利 增速 归母净利 增速（不含茅 五）2021-2023 2023 24Q1 23Q4 2024 2024 2023 2023 2024 C 6hAF6RE6ms44Nwm0QeAnqZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMnqTdGQhTezsDXUSt8zfDN 2 2021 2022 2023 2024 11%15%15%15%12%17%19%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+10.3%20 100 1000 800 16%12%13%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+9.6%15%15%15%15%24%22%20%E 2024-25 CAGR+20%CAGR+23.3%30%25%20%20%2025,43%31%22%E 2024-25 CAGR+20%10%15%15%5%-10%2025 500 165 20%19%10%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+22.9%CAGR+28.3%+19.5%+12.4%+22.4%15.7+41.5%+15.8%84%+21.8%+35.3%+16.9%17.1+43%+35%+15%+54%+12%+0.8%+12%+6%+4%30 50 100 87%19%-30%+16.59%+15.08%+15.3%+11.94%+20.26%+34.21%+20.72%+25.55%2021 200 2023 300+29%+28%+26%+41%+21%+42%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+21.7%33%20%22%E 2024-2025 2 CAGR+22%+15%+15%+12%+17%2025 77 23.25 25%2%16%50 17%-2%24%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+84.5%+15%-28.9%+15%-21%+17%-25%+11%-16%+27%+24%+20.79%+17.98%2021 100 150 2023 2025 150+25%+30%+23%+23%+28%+25%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+21.9%+10%+17%+12%+12%+11%7.4+10%+14%+12%+17%+16%+84%+13%8.8+15%+21%+40%+24%+43%+17.7%+23.8%2026 50+3%-2%+12%-14%+27%+16%E 2024-2026 3 CAGR+25.2%+28%+18.5%+21%+19.8%+54%+99%+25.5%+8%2025 35+7%-1%-16%-48%+37%+90%E 2024-25 2 CAGR+25.3%+15%-20%+7%-13%+38%-7%+24%2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 50 20 2023 2023 2023/500ml YoY YoY 1,266 4.2 1,503 11.1%5.7%628 3.9 812 18.0%-3.8%-130 232 6.0 193 11.3%10.1%57 1.9 148 27.9%-9.3%47 1.0 235-1.0%4.7%154 6.3 121 20.6%5.6%50 3.2 80 20.5%6.1%48 3.1 92 13.4%2.8%A 94 3.4 138 25.4%2.5%A+65 1.4 232 18.4%5.7%26 0.6 209 14.4%-2.7%14 1.2 59 19.0%1.6%15 0.7 106 45.3%0.9%100-300 13 0.8 85 35.8%-2.6%-85 6.0 29 18.5%1.4%68 36.7 9-26.0%13.8%46 1.3 180-1.8%22.0%2023 24Q1 2023 2024 2023 1Q24 2023 1Q24 2023 1Q24 12,084 5,597 17,107 9,371 4,281 YoY 20.4%11.4%YoY 19.2%YoY 27.7%21.7%19,659 9,700 1,843 727 367 YoY 22.8%27.6%YoY 39.0%YoY 40.2%36.1%1,283 14,393 YoY 26.9%3,039 668 YoY 8.0%YoY 8.9%21.1%18,096 4,517 1,770 979 189 YoY 11.9%YoY 31.5%30.2%YoY 28.2%21.2%1,884 468 1,883 542 YoY 6.9%-1.0%1,921 848 YoY 16.8%12.2%YoY 26.7%22.5%4,678 1,421 4,902 1,484 585 218 YoY 15.6%-0.1%YoY 17.5%11.8%YoY 25.9%13.2%947 251 YoY 6.6%8.5%1,697 671 YoY 50.3%7.4%489 149 YoY 5.2%36.9%2020 2020 2023 2023 7.4%2.6%5.5%2023 24Q1 P/E PEG 1 P/E 2020 3 2025 10.2%7.4%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%2014中报2014年报2015中报2015年报2016中报2016年报2017中报2017年报2018中报2018年报2019中报2019年报2020中报2020年报2021中报2021年报2022中报2022年报2023中报2023年报白酒板块 机构持 仓比例（左）白酒板块 外资持 仓比例（右）0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%2014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1白酒板块 公募基 金重仓 持股比 例3.8%2.6%2.8%1.0%1.4%1.0%1.0%0.8%0.8%0.3%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%2020 年2023贵州茅台 五粮液 泸州老窖 山西汾酒 洋河股份 古井贡酒今世缘 迎驾贡酒 舍得酒业 口子窖 其他-0.40%-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%贵州茅台五粮液泸州老窖山西汾酒洋河股份古井贡酒今世缘迎驾贡酒舍得酒业口子窖酒鬼酒水井坊老白干酒顺鑫农业珍酒李渡金种子酒伊力特金徽酒24Q1-23Q2 2023 2023 2022 2023 600519.SH 388 52%87.3%43.9%1.8%000858.SZ 181 60%55%3.1%000568.SZ 79 60%60%2.9%600809.SH 53 51%50%1.7%002304.SZ 70 70%60%4.9%000596.SZ 24 52%50%1.7%603369.SH 12 40%36%1.7%603198.SH 9 52%52%1.5%600702.SH 11 61%21%2.9%000799.SZ 3 59%40%2.0%600779.SH 4 35%34%2.0%603589.SH 9 52%58%3.7%600559.SH 4 62%39%2.1%6979.HK 6 38%1.7%600199.SH-000860.SZ-0.1%603919.SH 2 60%55%1.8%600197.SH 2 54%1.9%002646.SZ 1 69%37%1.1%000858.SZ 100 2022 146.8 000568.SZ 30%353.53 61.45%002304.SZ 2009 52%60%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000 15X 20X 57X 000596.SZ 50.45%1 2024 2023 11 2024 2-4 2 C C C+200 2970 2023 11 1+50 935 2024 2 5+20 325 2024 1 1 +15 405 2024 3 1+20 420 2024 3 1+10 265+8 20+20 350 2024 3 15 15+30 450 2024 4 1 10+20 293 30+15 195 2024 4 1 20+10 .2022.2.2023.2023 2024.7 6 12 A 300 50 10%-5%10%5%20%5%20%-5%5%5%嫚