20211026_艾瑞咨询_2021年中国本土美妆行业研究报告（50页）.pdf

2021.10 iResearch Inc.2 B ROI+TOP50 2020 50.0%2021 56.0%2020 1576 2023 2527 2020 24.8%2020 1290 286 SMS3&1.2.3.2016-2023 2010-2021 4 1 2 35-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019:GDP%:%-5%0%5%2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019:GDP%:%2008 GDP GDP 2020 2007-2020 Euromonitor 2007-2019 GDP GDP GDP 2 2007-2020 GDP 2020 2-2021 6 vs-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 3 4 5 6%2020 2021 6 6.1%5.8%11.2%11.7%7.7%8.7%5.3%4.8%10.5%11.3%7.6%9.4%0-9 10-19 20-34 35-49 50-59 60 2019%2019 70 80 90 00 55.3%00 85-95 70-80 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 4.2%6.3%9.0%11.6%13.9%-10.0%19.0%0112232016 2017 2018 2019 20202016-2020%7 2018 10 2016-2021 1 2016 9 30%15%2 2016 12 7 3 2017 11 187 10%5%6.5%2%4 2018 1 5 2018 11 2018 11 10 6 2019 3 7 2019 9 8 2020 6 7 2021 2 8 2021 4 8 1.2.3.4.30 2020 6 2021 1 1 1.2.3.1.2.1.2.3.4.5.6.3 9 Z 2020 87.2%12.8%18-29 55.6%2020 8 13 2020 8 13 33.6%22.0%18.7%9.6%13.1%18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40 2020 vs 87.2%12.8%2020 55.6%2021 1 1 8 31 187 7%,45.3%,21.2%,16.0%,10.2%,7.3%2020 10 53.2%TOP15 N=3038 2020 8 iClick 2018-2020 TOP15 NO.6 NO.7 NO.9 NO.10 NO.9 NO.13 NO.15 NO.6 NO.7 NO.9 53.2%49.3%40.7%2020 11 121.6 117.4 64.1 60.5 56.1 55.7 27.8 42.4 37.2 44.1 23.4 34.6 18.4 6.1 2020 2020 1/3 1/5 Euromonitor&79.2&33.4/12 1.1)2 2.1+AI+IoT 2 AR 1.=*100%2.11 3.A 2018 15 2018 2020 2018-2019 2.1%2.3%2018 20192018-2019%1458224833882018 2019 20202018-2020&AI+AR AI+&13+OEM ODM OBM ODM OBM 14 KOL 1.2.3.2014 58 4.2018 2018+/28.2%32.0%35.2%37.8%39.9%40.1%40.6%41.6%0.0%0.3%3.8%12.4%17.4%21.1%23.8%25.3%27.4%26.7%23.7%17.5%13.9%12.3%10.6%9.3%8.3%9.3%10.3%10.1%10.3%10.0%9.8%9.7%7.7%8.4%9.4%9.0%8.5%7.9%7.5%7.1%11.3%9.5%8.4%5.7%4.3%3.7%3.3%3.0%6.5%5.8%5.1%4.2%3.1%2.7%2.4%2.2%3.3%3.0%2.6%1.9%1.7%1.6%1.5%7.3%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e%2016-2023 15 1 2 316 SaaS MCN&CS KA(+OEM/ODM/)/17 5-10 5-10 100 10 5 30 20 35 DTC 3-5 60-80%30-60%3-5%15-30%15-30%60-80%20-40%30-40%0 10 65 100 10 15 15 45 45 6518 854 982 1142 1404 1576 1859 2175 2527 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2020 3759 2020 1576 2023 2527 2021-2023 16.6%Euromonitor Euromonitor 2279 2556 2956 3479 3759 4337 4969 5653 0.69%0.70%0.78%0.85%0.96%1.00%1.08%1.16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e(%CAGR=13.3%CAGR=14.2%2016-2023 2016-2023 CAGR=16.5%CAGR=16.6%Euromonitor19 2020 24.8%Euromonitor Euromonitor 81.2%78.7%77.3%75.8%75.2%73.7%72.1%70.5%18.8%21.3%22.7%24.2%24.8%26.3%27.9%29.5%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e%160 205 260 342 408 509 613 731 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e CAGR=26.3%CAGR=19.8%2016-2023 694 777 882 1061 1168 1350 1562 1796 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e CAGR=13.9%CAGR=15.3%2016-2023 2016-2023 20 84 107 151 247 286 359 447 550 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 770 875 991 1157 1290 1500 1728 1977 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e 2020 1290 2023 1977 550 2021-2023 23.8%Euromonitor Euromonitor 2016-2023 2016-2023 2016-2023 CAGR=13.8%CAGR=14.8%CAGR=35.9%CAGR=23.8%90.2%89.1%86.8%82.4%81.9%80.7%79.5%78.2%9.8%10.9%13.2%17.6%18.1%19.3%20.5%21.8%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e%21 2016 2020 170 128 18.9%2016-2023 10 16 39 81 170 309 471 647 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e2016-2023 CAGR=101.8%CAGR=46.5%2 9 27 80 128 191 273 361 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e2016-2023 CAGR=181.0%CAGR=36.6%98.6%97.5%94.2%88.5%81.1%73.1%65.8%60.1%1.4%2.5%5.8%11.5%18.9%26.9%34.2%39.9%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e%22 23+OEM ODM OBM 1 2 3 4 ODM 1 2 24 11 Q4 35%2020Q4 45.8%36.8%35.1%38.8%Q4 25 SKU SKU+15 26 1.2.3./2.7%136.0%1.8%140.0%2.8%174.0%8.9%182.0%-3.4%621.0%-4.4%161.0%-1.5%10000.0%-5.8%10000.0%2.6%20.7%4.1%8.4%1.1%136.0%27 4.9%4.9%,-0.3%4.0%,1.1%3.9%2.8%,0.6%2.6%,-1.2%2.0%,-5.2%0.8%,-3.8%-0.2-0.15-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.20.250.3-0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2/T B C D A 1.2%GMV-7.7%GMV GMV SPA,2020 9-2021 9%0.8%9.1%3976.6 0.2%6.1%803.5 1.4%67.5%7049.3 1.0%9.2%4646.6 6.1%7.2%29978.8 4.2%1.5%20420.3 4.3%1.1%20903.8 2.8%0.5%13680.5 2021 9 A B GMV 28 2021 9%1.4%12.9%4754.6 0.8%0.2%2791.4 0.5%13.1%1663.0 0.01%11.0%21.8 0.8%279.1%2651.7/14.2%0.4%46994.3 3.0%55.0%10037.4/12.4%16.0%41131.4 2.1%3.8%6950.5,/,CC4.0%,-5.9%/A B D A-3.1%GMV GMV 1.8%B C 2020 9-2021 9 GMV GMV 29 1.1).2016 2016 2)2.2021 3 1.1).2016 2016 2)25-40 25-40 18-24 6-18 6-12 2-4&20+200-1000 250-1500 50-250 25-150 75-200 25-150 TOP300 7.3%11.0%IP 80 90 30 1 3 6-8 4-6 20 10 15 14-24 12 33.7%79.6%59.9%20.4%6.4%A B2015-2019 TOP2%89.1%98.6%10.7%1.2%0.2%0.2%2015-2019 TOP2%70623045494108&31 CS 2020 532.8 41.3%2020 145.9 51.0%CS CS 26.1%28.3%31.9%36.8%41.3%45.0%47.7%49.8%33.2%35.8%39.7%44.1%51.0%55.7%58.5%59.7%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e2016-2023%32 B B ROI ROI B ROI 1.5-2.5 0.8-2.8 1.2-1.8 1-1.5B 0.8-2.2 0.5-1.2 15-30 7 7-15/7-30 15-30 B 7-30 15+B/+KOL+V B ROI 33 622 775 879 1051 1254 1477 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 2023e2018-2023 DTC DTC DTCDTC DTC DTC 1.DTC 2.DTC APP DTC 3.DTC 2020 DTC 879 55.7%2023 1477 DTC 2020 5.3%DTC DTC SKU SKU 84 5.3%DTC direct-to-customer);34 DTC DTC 1.DTC 2.3.DTC 1 2 DTC direct-to-customer);DTC/DTC a)b)&a)b)a)b)ROI CLV)a)b)c)+35 3-4 618 9-10 11 1.2.3.1.+2.3.2019 11 No.1 APP 11.1-11.11/KOL 10 2.5 Discovery-/-/-IP-/KOL 01&+KOL+KOL 020304 Discovery 36 2020 9 2021 9 500 239 195 TOP50 2020 50.0%2021 56.0%TOP300+24 26 26 30 2020 9-2021 9 TOP50 2020.9 2021.9 166 73 125 70 2020 9-2021 9 500 2020.9 2021.9 TOP300+37 2020 CR8 25.5%CR8 45.5%2020 CR82020 CR8CR824.9%75.1%CR845.5%54.5%38 1 2 339 40 GMV&2020 600-900 300-500 1500-2000 1000 400-500CAGR 2016-2020 15-20%15-20%30-50%15-20%CR5)15%25%25%40%80%85%&%15-30%10-35%60-80%30-50%30-50%OBM+OBM 41 1.1-3 2.1-3 3-5 3.KOL KOL 4.1-3 3-5 5 42 1000 2000 1000 500 1 2 2 60%3 70%3 60%2 60%&CS KA CS KA CS CS OEM ODM OBM)1.2.3.1 2 SOP,GMP 3/43 0%40%80%10%40%80%1 2 3 15-22%15%60%80%15-22%30-60%&44 80%45 IT 91 2016 2019 2016 2019 B 2020 4.1/IT IT 100.0%71.4%75.0%91.7%79.3%68.4%28.6%25.0%8.3%20.7%31.6%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.9B B%B%16 7 8 12 29 190.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.2 3.0 4.1 2.6 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021.9B B/B/2016-2021 9 2016-2021 9 46 57.9%1-9 10 6+IT IT,57.9%,15.8%,15.8%&,7.9%,2.6%&2021 1-9 C 3 Coatue Management H Capital AOEO A Tiger B+3 Tiger Global LAN A 2 A Crescent Point B 5000 A 1 B 4 2021 1-9 47 IPO 48 2002 3000 400-026-Contact Us 49