20201015_艾瑞咨询_2020年中国音乐产业发展研究报告—数字篇（49页）.pdf

20202 iResearch I K K K*K OK K 34 iResearch I iResearch I IFPI 2020 2019 202 8.0%1997 IFPI 2019 50%14.8 14.7 14.7 14.4 14.0 14.5 15.8 17.0 18.7 20.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192010-2019 59.7%55.5%50.7%46.2%42.1%39.3%34.6%30.6%24.7%21.6%2.7%4.1%6.8%9.7%13.6%19.3%28.9%38.2%49.5%55.9%26.2%28.8%29.7%29.7%28.6%25.5%20.1%15.3%9.1%7.4%9.4%9.6%10.8%12.4%13.6%13.1%13.8%13.5%14.0%12.7%2.0%2.1%2.0%2.1%2.1%2.8%2.2.4%2.7%2.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192010-2019 IFPI IFPI5 iResearch I2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 2015-2019 2017 2018 2019 1 2 3 4 2019 2.3 1.2 4.1 753.4 761.0 14th12th10th7th7th IFPI 753.4 1.2 4.1 2.3 6 iResearch I 2019 2.3 1.3 2.3 5.7 12.0 19.5 2015 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022/7 iResearch I/OST K 0.6 1.2 5.2 13.0 29.3 2015 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022/8 iResearch I 5.6 5.7 5.1 4.47 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022 2016 2019 4.1 9 iResearch I K 2019 753.4 K 1 2 KOL 3 53.5 137.3 285.5 498.4 753.4 1000.4 1274.6 1583.5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022 10 11 iResearch I 2025 1200 2015 2019 11 2017 5 2020 12 iResearch I iResearch I 2019 2513 8.2%2014 6 10%2019 86624 2012 GDP 2019 4.7%2019 GDP 2012-2019 2014-2019 18,07121,35123,94027,23530,78534,72241,17146,86820153.8%2018 2014 20123.5%3.6%2019e 20134.0%20164.1%4.2%20174.5%4.7%1,5361,7231,9152,0862,2262,5139.9%2015 2014 201812.2%8.9%11.1%2016 20176.7%12.9%2019%GDP%()4311 2019 GDP 13 iResearch I 82.2%2015 3 2020 3 9.3%5.8 9.8 2020 3 CNNIC 45 2015 3 CNNIC 35 36 iclick 5.89.02015.3 2020.3-57.5%-82.5%-69.3%-83.7%-CAGR=9.3%83.2%79.8%App 75.0%,2020 14 iResearch I 5G 5G 8K VR AR 5G 5G 5G 12.6 2019 10 12 5G 300 5G 4G 5G4G 0.1-1G10M10T0.1T1ms10ms500km/h350km/h 1.0 2.0 3.0CD 4.0 Walkman 1909 1963 1982 1995-2020 15 iResearch I iResearch I 18.8 36.4 47.7 76.3 100.9 131.6 187.7 269.4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022-8.1 24.1 51.7 98.8 151.4 201.5 251.4 297.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022-K K 2019 100.9 IP 2019 K 151.4 K K K K 16 iResearch I iResearch I5.2 31.7 65.5 103.7 142.4 171.3 205.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022-2019 103.7 2019 397.3 5G/26.6 71.7 154.3 257.8 397.3 524.9 664.2 811.2 02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e2015-2022-17 iResearch I 2018 8 K 2020 3 2019 APP APP APP UserTracker MAU 2.002.07 2.102.152.120.701.121.862.563.262.06 2.04 2.03 2.01 1.982018H17.888.102018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2020H17.978.328.16 K 2018-2020 18 iResearch I MAU K ARPPUY2017 Y2020 3.2%8.5 7.2%9.5 ARPPUY2017 Y2020 3.8%100 5%120 20%1.2%11.8%4%2017 2020 K ARPPU 11.8%K ARPPU 20%ARPPU ARPPU ARPPU 2017-2020 19 iResearch I/K,2020 20 iResearch I2019 EP/TOP10 2019 2019 TME 2019 EP/TOP10 61YOUNG R1SE72 83HONEY with 94 101105 35,715,792 34,675,794 31,836,639 19,083,466 14,407,198 52,579,940 47,069,310 37,075,711 36,165,060 35,970,777 21 iResearch I DJ R&B/Soul 41.3%TGI DJ R&B/Soul TGI N=3211 2020 9 iClick 57.3%41.3%39.6%37.3%37.1%34.3%2020 100.4 105.0 107.1DJ 100.6 106.3119.6/123.5R&B/Soul116.7 TGI27.4%25.0%22.5%20.8%17.0%15.9%80.6%55.8%51.4%31.6%29.1%22 iResearch I TGI 25/Z 26-35 36-45 26-35;45 N=3211 2020 9 iClick 40100160 R&B/Soul/25 26-35 36-45 46-55 55 TGI 2020 23 iResearch I TGI 70%Live House 45%N=3211 2020 9 iClick 050100150 R&B/Soul/TGI 2020 24 iResearch I K 26-35 36 TGI K K 60100140 N=3211 2020 9 iClick R&B/Soul/K TGI K TGI60100140601001406010014040100160010020060100140601001406010014040100160010020025 26-35 36-45 46-55 55 K 2020 K 25 iResearch I 6-8 12-2 50%K 8%30%25%16%23%24%23%40%17%39%12%5%11%17%17%30%20%27%35%7%K PM AM0-6 6-8 8-10 10-12 12-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8-10 10-12 K N=2761 N=2412 N=1769 K N=1704 2020 9 iClick26 iResearch I iResearch I K K QQ K 94%N=2761 2020 9 iClick N=1704 2020 9 iClick 57%K 51%41%38%K 19%46%41%39%42%32%/6%K 27 iResearch I iResearch I 21.7%26.8%28.8%31.8%36.8%35.7%38.4%40.2%32.0%30.7%27.1%23.8%7.6%5.5%4.4%3.4%1.9%1.3%1.3%0.8%K K K K N=1097 N=649/K N=1082 N=652 N=482 N=965 N=493 N=916 2020 9 iClick K N=1704 N=1769 N=2412 N=2761 2020 9 iClick/K 65%61%/K 53%52%56%47%50%47%28 iResearch I29 iResearch I 2020 GDP 30 iResearch I 2020/31 iResearch I QQ K 1919 2020 32 iResearch I iResearch I K APP 2017 6.00 2.07 2020 8.08 2.12 K K 6.00 7.88 8.32 8.08 2.07 2.00 2.10 2.12 2017 H1 2018 H1 2019 H1 2020 H1mUserTracker-2017 H1-2020 H1 K APP K 2020 Live House K K/Usertracker 33 iResearch I iResearch I 5G 5G 5G 5G 2020 5G bps5G vs 4G 10G vs 1G ms 5G vs 4G 1 vs 10 km/h 5G vs 4G 500 vs 3502020 34 iResearch I Live House 2019 2019 6%2019 46%27%8%6%4%4%4%1%2019 35 iResearch I iResearch I GDP 2019 16 2.1 GDP 1 500 TGI 146 106497 118198 128994 153095 164220 50237541396001466006708926.5%11.0%9.1%18.7%7.3%2015 2016 2017 2018 20192015-2019 GDP%12.6%19.9%20.2%17.6%33.8%27.0%31.4%21.0%16.7%17.4%26.4%17.6%19.1%19.8%34.7%35.5%35.2%29.6%25.0%31.2%27.3%19.9%20.5%19.0%18.4%13.2%19.9%13.2%7.3%3.2%3.6%4.8%5.9%2.8%5.8%4.5%4.2%4.7%3.2%4.4%0.0%2.5%50 50-100 100-500 500-1000 1000-1500 1500 2020 TGI146 TGI129 TGI126 500 N=3211 2020 9 iClick 36 iResearch I TGI 1000 84.2%N=357 2020 9 iClick 2020 84.2%LiveHouse 27.5%1000 3000 TGI=114 21.0%3 1000 TGI=133 66.4%1 1000 TGI=134 55.7%1 1000 TGI=122 52%1 LiveHouse 1000 TGI=134 37 iResearch I 2019 61%45%IT 49 46 44 38 17 21.937.727.34910.351%46%48%63%61%2015 2016 2017 2018 20192015-2019%AR/VR AI 10 2019 3 1084 26.5%35%26%14%8%6%5%3%3%A B Pre-A B+-F A+38 iResearch I39 iResearch I K K/2016 2018 QQ 2020 2019 2020 2020 K K 2017 2017 2020 2016-2020 40 iResearch I Live House LiveHouse 41 iResearch I K OnlineOffline 2020 42 iResearch I 74.4%TGI 115 TGI 125 N=3211 2020 9 iClick 4.004.063.933.783.863.79 5 24.5%49.9%22.7%2.1%0.8%Q/TGI=115 TGI=105 TGI=103 TGI=142 TGI=126 TGI=214 TGI=218/123456/KTV TGI=159 TGI=163 TGI=156 TGI=162 TGI=153 TGI=16743 iResearch I People Event 2020 44 iResearch I IP IP IP IP IP IP IP 2020 45 iResearch I 18 DJ Die Hymne 1500 2018 12 2 14000 11(DEAG)EuroArts/500 250 2 4 4 10 100 880 1000/1000 1200 DJ 73 57 12 3200 40000 155 20 20 livehouse 6 21 2020 46 iResearch I 2009 4 12 2016 4 2020 4 5 3.5+2020 47 Keep Learning 400-026-2099 48