2020129_艾瑞咨询_2020年中国智能互联-汽车产业变革研究报告（70页）.pdf

-2020 2 iResearch I/HD Map L3 L4 5-10 L3 SMS3 1 2 3 45 4 iResearch I ICT 2/:Key Features:5 iResearch I TESLA APPLE HUAWEI OEM Tier1 5G MEMS AUTOSAR 20356 iResearch I 2015.5 2016.3 2025 2020 2025 2016.10 2020 L1 50%L2 10%2017.1 2016-2020 2017.4 2020,L1 L2 L3 50%2025 80%2017.7 2017.12 2018-2020 2020 HA 2017.12 2018.1 2020 50%LTE-V2X 90%2025-5G-V2X 2018.12 2020 L3 L2 30%60%7 iResearch I 2020 2035 2025 L3 L4 LTE-V2X 5G-V2X 20352050 2020 L1 50%L2 10%LTE-V2X 90%E/E 8 iResearch I 2019 10 396.6 514.9 629.8 674.7 1,031.5 1,374.9 1,449.8 1,549.4 1,792.8 1,970.0 2,119.7 2,429.2 2,474.4 2,367.2 2,143.3 29.8%22.3%7.1%52.9%33.3%5.4%6.9%15.7%9.9%7.6%14.6%1.9%-4.3%-9.5%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192005-2019%9 iResearch I OEM-MEB VW.OS 2025 VW.OS Car.Software 10%60%2019 WE Share 2025 1/3 Audi on demand+Toyota Connected Inc MSPF DCMS V2X Mobility Teammate Concept Guardian Chauffeur Central&Zone E/E Uber NTT DATA ICT Ha:mo Hui-a OEM MaaS Global B E/E Cruise Automation Lyft SideCar 2021 L3 2025 L5 Mobileye Intel L3 Drive Pilot NVIDIA BOSCH MOMENTA HERE MAP MyTaxi rideScout Car2Go Blacklane 5G Argo.ai Velodyne Civil Maps Niernberg Neuroscience Lyft10 iResearch I iResearch I 1.6 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 13.4%13.9%10.7%10.3%7.9%12.4%11.7%12.8%11.9%10.6%2014 2015 2016 2017 20182014-2018%670 681 688 668 248 275 311 610 146 235 273 653 312 383 435 127 2015 2020e 2025e 2050e 0%2.7%-2.6%4.4%CAGR2015-2050/11 iResearch I 9.34 Lyft 3.5 9.5 1.61 45%13 30 25 12=-14,490 13 13 7.09 55%72 30 12=183,773 12 iResearch I L23 2019 36 40%Model3 97.6%2020 Model Y,Semi 2021 Cyber Truck 2019 ES8 ES6 20,565 2020 4 ES8 180 2019 G3 16,608 P7 MODEL 3 2019 EX5 16876 4 EX5-Z EX5 MEB Id.3 3 E/E OTA 10%60%Super Cruise CT6 L2 zFAS 60KM/h L3 Callenger Defender 20 13 iResearch I-Tesla Model 3 E/E 1 ECU 3 CCM BCM LH BCM RH 2 AI CCM FSD 3 FOTA FOTA Bug 4 AutoPilot+Tesla Autopilot Autopilot Autopilot Robotaxi FSD 600 GFLOPS 2300 FSD AutoPilotFOTA OTA Model 3 2017 120+OTA+OTA60 2000 14 iResearch I iResearch I-Tesla 8 TESLA/OTA/Shadow MaaSTESLA 3,432 5,589 8,535 17,632 19,952 309 762 1,107 883 869 14 181 1,116 1,555 1,531 291 468 1,001 1,391 2,226 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192015-2019Service and other(Million Dollars)Energy generation and storage(Million Dollars)Automotive leasing(Million Dollars)Automotive Sales(Million Dollars)15 iResearch I iResearch I-Tesla RoadStar Model S Model X 2017 Model 3 Model 3 139,513 27,595 24,900 24,781 18,306 18,194 18,019 14,715 8,664 201810,160 7,500 5,271 2,957 2,531 2,009 1,557 1,479 1,215 2020 3 16 iResearch I 195670 90 20052015 2014 2010 20072016 2017 2018 2019 FireBird 80 RACS 90 1999 FCC 5.850-2.925GHz DSRC Stanley DARPA240 Velodyne64 DARPA ADAS Mobileye Chauffeur HQ3 286 Firefly Mobileye F015 Autopilot VisLab Nvidia L2 Drive PX 3GPP LTE-V2X Cruise Automation 2000 Uber Otto Waymo Mobileye Waymo L3 A8 MEMs Flash Nvidia Jetson AGX Xavier Waymo One 17 iResearch I 510 60 20 AUTOSAR OTA 10 50%5G Rel16 URLLC 18 1 2 34 5 19 iResearch I ACM/SDM APPS OPDS RDS TPMS EDC CCM Powertrain PCM ECM ECT EFI ESA ACC HMI GPS RSE DVD EIS OBD Entertainment&Information Safety&Convenience VCM BCM SJB EPM CCS/ALC AFS LRCL SCM Vehicle/Body Control ABS/ASR/TCS VSC/ESP EBD.FWS BBW EBA DCA EPS EAS IMMO PKE RKE DAC 20 iResearch I/E/E EEA ECU/MCU HMI 21 iResearch I 20%MEMS Tier 1/Tier 3 Tier2/Tier1 22 iResearch I 1 AEC-Q100/101/200 ISO/TS16949 ISO26262 23 Tier1 OEM 2 Autosar Tier1Autosar Autosar Tier1/070 13 13*-40-85 105 125 0 PPM PPB 15 153023 iResearch I iResearch I 2 Tier1 20%Tier2 HIS 12.5%10.8%10.0%8.0%7.1%5.5%4.8%2.7%2.7%2.6%33.3%2017 1450155716741786187619712070217522853724305095796577237958749627.4%7.5%6.7%5.0%5.1%5.0%5.1%5.1%15.6%18.4%13.8%13.5%10.0%10.0%9.9%10.1%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192011-2019%24 iResearch I iResearch I A8 1993 ECU 5 2010 ECU 100 20 PWC Autonomous Cars-Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm-Morgan Stanley Blue Paper 1%3%4%10%15%20%25%35%50%1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020e 2030e1950-2030%90%40%10%40%20%1993 A8 5 ECU2010 A8 ECU25 iResearch I E/E ECU Ethernet CAN MEB Global B Central&Zone Concept CMA Tier1 SVA ECU E/E ECU ECU Model 3 ID.3 A8 CTS ECUECUs ECUs DCUs DCUs DCUs 26 iResearch I 2019 6 101 USB IC 2019 5 Marvell 17.6 2019 5 Marvell Aquantia 4.52 Marvell Aquantia Marvell L4 L5 Marvell Marvell Aquantia Xavier Pegasus Drive AGX 2018 9 IDT 67 IDT MCU SoC IC 2018 3 83.5 2017 3 Intel Mobileye 153 Mobileye ADAS/Mobileye Intel ADG Intel Mobileye 2017 2 80 2015 3 118 ADAS 27 iResearch I CPU Gartner 131.68106.77150.8810.0610.742019&MCU GPU FPGA ASIC 1%4%IGBT MOSFET 8%5G 3%SRAM DRAM 8%28 1 2 3 45 29 1 2 45 3 3.1 3.230 iResearch I NHTSA/SAE/6 NHTSA L0-L4 SAE L0L5 OEM L2 L3 2 L3 OEDR(Object and Event Detection)SAE NHTSA SAE DDT DDTFallback ODD/L0 L0 FCW LDW PCW BSM L1 L1 ACC AEB LKA ISA L2 L2 ECU OEDR LCC ALC L3 L3 TJP HWP L4L4 RoboTaxi etcL5 31 iResearch I 3 L3 8 L0 L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L3 L3 L3 1 L3 3 32 iResearch I L2 L3 2020 L4/5 2025 690.0 780.0 870.0 910.0 860.0 690.0 500.0 310.0 150.0 20.0 170.0 260.0 360.0 560.0 770.0 780.0 790.0 780.0 720.0 630.0 460.0 30.0 180.0 290.0 490.0 700.0 910.0 1,130.0 1,350.0 1,470.0 10.0 30.0 50.0 80.0 170.0 40.0%45.0%48.0%49.0%45.0%35.0%25.0%15.0%7.5%1.0%0.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%40.0%39.5%38.5%35.0%30.0%22.0%0.5%1.5%10.0%15.0%25.0%35.0%45.0%55.0%65.0%70.0%0.0%0.5%1.5%2.5%4.0%8.0%2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e2020-2030 L2 L1 L2 L2.5/3 L4/5 L1%L2%L2.5/3%2 L4/5%ADAS 2 TJP HWP L3 L4/5 2025 33 iResearch I/-MEMS MEMS MEMS MEMS-/SLAM/SCAN MATCHINGRTK34 iResearch I L2.5/3+Tier1/2 L2.5/3/A8 S CT6 UNI-T Model 3 ES8 P7 zFAS-Sydtem Drive Pilot iNext Super Cruise AutoPilot 3.0 NIO Pilot XPILOT 3.0 EyeQ3+Aletera Cyclone V+AurixTC297T+TegraK1 VCMNvidia Drive PX PegasusMobileye Eye Q5 IfenionAurixMCU*2 Intel DenvetonCPU RenesasV3HH3Mobileye HW3 FSD Mobileye Xavier+820A L3 60km/h TJP L3 L3 L2.5 L3 40km/h TJP L2.5 L2.5 L3 HWP 7 4+1+10 6 6 8 7 3+4+13 Valeo Scala Valeo Scala Valeo Scala N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5 6 5 5 5 1 5 5 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 GPS/GLONASS GPS DMS ADAS 8 L2.5/L3 35 iResearch I L4 L4 L4L2.5/3 L4/5&Waymo Pony.Ai NuTonomy Voyage AutoX TuSimple Embark NvidiaTitan XNvidia Xavier L4 L4 L4 L4 L4 L4 L4 L4 8 6 6 4 8 12 10 5 6 1 32 2 16 1 1 64/128+4 3 6 2 32 1 4 3 4 3 5 5 5 6 3 3 13 GPS/IMU1 GPS/IMUGPS/IMU GNSS 2 GPS/IMU L4 36 iResearch I L2.5/L3 L4/L5 GNSS/IMU Camera 500 Radar Lidar Lidar 3D Ultrasonic+GNSS+IMU 10 L2 37 iResearch I-30100GHz 110mm 200m 5001000 24GHz 77GHz 77GHz 24GHz 60cm3.75cm 77GHz 1.2.3.4.24GHz77GHzBSD LCA PA RCTA S&G ACC FCW 70m 70200m 110mm 1.2.38 iResearch I-77GHz MMIC PCB MMIC RFIC GPS MMIC MMIC GaAs FET MMIC GaAs FET MMIC SiGe MMIC CMOS MMIC PCB SCHWEIZERELECTRONIC39 iResearch I-L2/3 CMOS MMIC 77GHz 24GHz 77GHz 305080140190230270300330 340 3402030607010014018021025030066.7%60.0%75.0%35.7%21.1%17.4%11.1%10.0%3.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%16.7%42.9%40.0%28.6%16.7%19.0%20.0%2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e2020-2030 24GHz 77GHz 24GHz%)77GHz%40 iResearch I-60 3D 3D Velodyne HDL-64 7.5 TOF 2D2.5D 3D 10 3040 1.3D 2.1.2.905nm/1550nm 41 iResearch I-MEMs 100 3D-FLASH MEMs OPA MEMs MEMs VelodyneHDL-647.5 64120m2cm1.3M/s 15kgVelodyneHDL-322 3280-120m2cm0.7M/s1kgVelodyneVLP-160.8 16100m2cm0.3M/s0.83kgQuanergyS3250 8150m4cmN/AN/AIbeoLux-4/8250 4-8100-150m10mN/A N/ADJILivox Mid-1009,999 300260m2cm0.3M/s 2.2kgInnovizInnoviz ProN/A150m5m0.178M/s0.95kgC-Fans10 128200m2cmN/AN/A Flash OPA 42 iResearch I-+OEM L3 L4+99%L3 L4 Corner case 1302403901310187027403530424048805420550084.6%62.5%235.9%42.7%46.5%28.8%20.1%15.1%11.1%1.5%2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e2020-2030%43 iResearch I-ECU/MCU ECU Electronic control unit ECU ECU CAN/Lin/FlexRay ECU MCU CPU I/O ROM CPU ECU NEC MCU 8 16 8 8 32 32 AECQ 1644 iResearch I-L3 ECU ECU AI ECU Zonal ECU DCU/CentralComputer UnitBOSCH-DASy 360 TTTech&Delphi&Mobileye-zFASAurix TC297T Altera Cyclone V EyeQ3 TegraK1 VCM 360 Continental-ADCU-MATRIX 40TOPS 20W 4 1080p L3/4 NXP-BLUEBOXS32V LS2088 45 iResearch I-25%L3 L3 L4 L3 L4 2 2020 2020 175 2030 1877 10 25%170270400840116014601720194021102240217058.8%48.1%110.0%38.1%25.9%17.8%12.8%8.8%6.2%-3.1%2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e2020-2030 ADAS/AD DCU ADAS/AD DCU%46 1 2 45 3 3.1 3.247 iResearch I Vehicle Vehicle Infrastructure Pedestrian Network V2X C-V2X IMT-2020 5G V2V V2I V2P V2N/48 iResearch I iResearch I 2018 DNPWIMA LTARoad Works Warning9.39.912.212.413.24648545456 49 iResearch I DSRC DSRC C-V2X DSRC Dedicated Short Range Communication IEEE C-V2X Cellular-V2X 3GPP Rel 14 3G/4G LTE-V2X 5G NR-V2X DSRC C-V2X 5G uRLLC DSRCC-V2XLTE-V2X Rel-14/15 5G-V2X Rel-16+3D 500km/h 500km/h 500km/h 90%280km/h 255m 450m 450m 100ms 50ms 100ms 20ms 50 iResearch I 5G C-V2X DSRC 20 3GPP 5G C-V2X DSRC C-V2X 2019 12 FCC Federal Communications commision 1999 5.9GHz DSRC 5.905-5.925GHZ 20MHz C-V2X C-V2X IMT2020 5G 2018 6 LTE-V2X 2020 LTE-V2X 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rel.165G Rel.15NSA SA 5G 5G 2019 6 5G 2020 10 ITU 36 5GLTE-V2X SIRel.14LTE-V2V WIRel.14LTE-V2X WIRel.15LTE-eV2X WI5G NR V2X3GPP V2X Phase1 3GPP V2X Phase2 3GPP V2X Phase32019 5G V2X Uu 2021 NR PC551 iResearch IC-V2X C-V2X C-V2X C-V2X IMT-2020 5G RSU T-BOX/OBU 10%20%RSU T-BOX/OBU 40%60%RSU T-BOX/OBU 80%100%C-V2X PC5 Uu V2V V2I V2N 5G-V2X eCall 52 iResearch IC-V2X-RSU RSS T-Box OBD OBU C-V2X C-V2X IMT2020 5G C-V2X OTA C-V2X Uu PC5 C-V2X InternetC-V2X UuPC5PC5RSU RSS PC5PC5 PC5 53 iResearch IC-V2X MEC-C-V2X IMT2020 5G PSM SPAT PSM BSM SRM PSM SPAT BSM PSM SRM BSM SPAT C-V2X 54 iResearch IC-V2X C-V2X TSP/DMSP TSP/DMSP TSP/DMSP C-V2X IMT-2020 5G TSP/DMSP/TSP/DMSP/Tier1 55 iResearch I-+V2X-ADAS landmark ADAS ADAS 56 iResearch I-L2.5/L3 L 2.5/L 3 20 2001-2008 2009-2016 2018-2001.62004.52005.52005.52005.62005.72007.6 2006.12007.6 2008.6 2008.6 2010.10 2013.6 2017.10 MOMENTA2018.82018.8 2019.12019.52019.5 2019.72013.9 2014.2 15 2010.83500 2020.5 11 2014.1 57 iResearch I-2025 145 50%900-1000/150/L2.5/L3 2021 28 2025 145 50.6%30509013017022026030034037066.7%80.0%44.4%30.8%29.4%18.2%15.4%13.3%8.8%2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20302021-2030%2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e/900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900/150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 15058 1 2 3 45 59 iResearch I-/2018 CES OEM C A S E Connected Autonomous Sharing Electrification C A S E Toyota Connected Inc MSPF DCMS V2X Mobility Teammate Concept Guardian Chauffeur NTT DATA ICT EV FCV Ha:mo Hui-a OEM MaaS 60 iResearch I MSPF Translog 2012 10 2016 6 Uber 2016 10 Getaround 2017 5 Oakenlnnovations Commuterz 2017 8 Grab 2015 12 10 AI 2016 10 MSPF 2017 7 1 AI Ventures 2018 1 EV e-Palette Concept MaaS e-Palette L3 2018 6 DCM Crown Corolla Sport MSPF 2020 1 Woven City 2009 KDDI,2016 9 Zenrin DynamicMap Planning 2017 1 SDL PSA Elektrobit Luxoft Xevo 2015 12 UIEvolution inc 2017 8 Preferred Networks 2017 9 PKSHA 2017 9 Luminar AI Woven City-Mobility Service PlatformToyota Smart Center 2018 10 MONET e-Palette MONET MSPF IoT Platform MONET 2020 2025-2030 e-Palette Woven City61 iResearch ITier1-BOSCH BOSCH Multi purpose camera Front radar plusBOSCH Ultrasonic sensorsBOSCH VMPS,GEO DASy-360 Servolectric-ECU 20 1978 ABS 1995 ESP 2000 ACC 2011 2018 L2(TJA)2019(AVP)2020 L2(HWA)2021 L3 2022 L3SENSE THINK ACTPredictive road condition servicesACCAEBLKATJA/HWA TJP/HWP HPA/RPA/AVP/APA62 iResearch ITier1-ADAS AutoPilot Tier11.2.-3.2022 40 AI SiliconOthersOEM1 Drive Pegasus L4 DASy L3 2 L4/5 Robotaxi 3 HERE DeepMap 4 Lidar TeraVue ABAX Sensing ABAX SensingTetra VueMap63 iResearch IAI-AI 20 AI Tier1 L4/L4 2020 11 L4 L4 3D SLAM 64 iResearch IAI-20 6,X70 PLUS DMS OMS ADAS NEXCO NEXCO L4 L4 65 1 2 3 45 66 iResearch I/Nucleus MCUDSP/wifiSIM SIM SoC AP CP OTA 67 iResearch I Model 3 3 AUTOSAR OSEK/VDX Model 3 Linux Linux Autosar/Adaptive Autosar ECU DCU iOS+68 Keep Learning 400-026-2099 69