深度报告-20230123-华创证券-山高环能-000803.SZ-深度研究报告_周期与成长属性兼备的高弹性生柴标的_23页_2mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 23 000803 15.6 12.10 2019-2021/UCO SAF UCO 22 70%2022 11 UCO 23 UCO 4330/10000/10+20 2023 22-24 1.8/2.7/4&2023 15.6 2022-2024 1.26 2.74 3.88 PE 34/16/11 PE TTM 20 x+2023 20 PE 15.6 UCO ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()827 1,491 2,647 3,415(%)138.3%80.4%77.5%29.0%()81 126 274 388(%)78.4%56.8%117.0%41.9%()0.34 0.36 0.78 1.10()36 34 16 11()2.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 2023 1 19 010-63214656 S0360518070002 S0360522050001()35,199.41()28,334.25()42.59()34.28(%)64.80()4.08 12/24.79/10.99(12)-27%-11%4%19%22/01 22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-192023-01-19 300 000803 2009 1210 1 UCO 2022-2024 4330/6000/8000/60%/80%/80%2022-2024 7.07/15.47/17.20 29.8%/30.0%/38.3%2 REITs 2021-2025 720 1/3 60 2/2022-2024 2.81/3.20/3.61 32%/33%/34%3 10 2023 10 50%2023-2024 10000/0.83 5 12%22Q3 4 2022-2024 2.42/2.17/1.96 40%42%42%5 2021-3.19%2021 2022-2024 2.57/4.75/6.34 1%/2%/3%2023 15.6 2022-2024 1.26 2.74 3.88 PE 34/16/11 PE TTM 20 x+2023 20 PE 15.6 000803 2009 1210 3.5.5.5.6.7.7.8.9 SAF.11.12+.12.14.15.15.16.17.19 000803 2009 1210 4 1.5 2 2017-2022Q3.6 3 2017-2022Q3.6 4.6 5.6 6/.7 7.8 8 UCO.8 9.9 10 2021.9 11 UCO.9 12 2015-2021.10 13 2012-2021.10 14 2015-2021.10 15 2020 96%.10 16.11 17 SAF.12 18 SAF.12 19/.13 20.13 21.13 22 2022.14 23 UCO 22Q4/.15 24 22Q4/.15 25/.15 26 2022H1.16 27.16 28.17 29.17 30.18 31 2023 1 19.19 32 PE BAND.19 000803 2009 1210 5 1988 1998 3 2004 2017 2019 2020 2022 5 43.45%8 2022 9 26 50 10 40 1 2020 2019 2020 2021 8.27 138.33%0.81 78.38%2022H1 7.35+170.57%0.71+409.38%11 15-3 15 Q1 2.5 Q4 1.5 000803 2009 1210 6 2 2017-2022Q3 3 2017-2022Q3 Wind Wind 4 Wind 2020 9 7.82/86.54 3 2022 1 11.02/1125 146 2022-2024 1.8/2.7/4.0 129.2%50.0%48.1%5(%)(%)1100000 9.7786 0.4579 900000 8.0007 0.3746-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3-3000%-2500%-2000%-1500%-1000%-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 000803 2009 1210 7 50000 0.4445 0.0208 143 6950000 61.7833 2.8931 2249000 19.9929 0.9362 11249000 100 4.6827 BOT/BOT UCO 6/Wind UCO 000803 2009 1210 8 NESTE/SAF 7 UCO UCOME 8 UCO 2%200ppm 80-90 190-200 85%2%40-50 0.5 80ppm 80 2%100ppm 88%UCO 2%FFA 7%0.5 20ppm 80ppm 80 2%100ppm HVO UCO 1%FFA 4%0.5 20ppm 50ppm 45-58 2%100ppm ISCC FFA 50/Argus UCO Part B Part A 000803 2009 1210 9 9 HVO Part B UCOME Part B BGME Part A1 2021 1.21 5%600 40/800 300 40%2021 150 114 UCO 65%-70%10 2021 11 UCO Fatty Acid Methyl Esters FAME 20%1 Argus 2022 12 Part A Part B(UCO)2023 1 2 UCO14%19%67%34.37 58.12 73.66 91.76 114.52 148.17 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020406080100120140160UCO 000803 2009 1210 10 2021 150 60%30%12 2015-2021 13 2012-2021 USDA 2018 2018 2020 2022 1-11 26.59 163.63+45.71%2020 70%14%12%96%14 2015-2021 15 2020 96%Wind 2021 227/69.2809273.382.51281500204060801001201401602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 020406080100120140160180,70.30%,13.90%,12.00%,3.90%000803 2009 1210 11 10 200 250-300 10/40/2021 6.43%40/20/25/14/20/SAF IATA 2.7/9 3%50%2021 10 2030 SAF IATA 2008 45 37+IATA 2025 SAF 700 2030 2000 500 2 16 2%2030 1%2022 2%2025 50%2050 0.50%2020 30%2030 HVO 7 ASTM D7566-HEFA+HEFA 2 S&P FOB SAF 000803 2009 1210 12 HEFA 60%1 1.67 90%17 SAF 18 SAF ICAO ICAO Sustainable Aviation Fuels Guide 2020 8 10/2022 5 RSB 2022 6 2022 2 UOP Ecofining 2 50/1 2023 2022 9 100/40 50/2023 1+2020-2022 CAGR 110%BOT 2020 980/4330/4930/110%14%18%31%60%75%83%83%0%20%40%60%80%100%GFT-农作物GFT-森林作物GFT-城市生活垃圾ATJ-乙醇ATJ-异丁醇HEFA-植物油脂HEFA-动物油脂收率 000803 2009 1210 13 19/20 1000/4800 CCER 330 80%4%UCO 7500/180 1000/4803.2 10000/5 21/648&300 UCO 300 4%7500 36 60 0.6 CCER 12 CCER 0.6 20/386.06 140 140&106.06/261.94/80/181.94/1000 9801830433060008000100000200040006000800010000120002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E/CAGR:110%000803 2009 1210 14 330 80%1301520 4803.2 22 2022/480 BOT 25 300 BOT 25 200 BOT 25 500 BOT 30 350 PPP 20 500 BOT 30 100 BOT 28 400 BOT 30 200 BOO 28 200 PPP 30 100 BOT 30 300 BOO 25 400 BOO 30 200 100 BOT 20 4330 1 2/3 4 BOT 100-150 UCO 21 1000 40 000803 2009 1210 15 23 UCO 22Q4/24 22Q4/2022 UCO 5000/40%-50%2023 25/UCO/3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 10%-740.48-700.48-660.48-620.48-580.48-540.48-500.48-460.48-420.48-380.48 20%-316.24-276.24-236.24-196.24-156.24-116.24-76.24-36.24 3.76 43.76 30%-174.83-134.83-94.83-54.83-14.83 25.17 65.17 105.17 145.17 185.17 40%-104.12-64.12-24.12 15.88 55.88 95.88 135.88 175.88 215.88 255.88 50%-61.70-21.70 18.30 58.30 98.30 138.30 178.30 218.30 258.30 298.30 60%-33.41 6.59 46.59 86.59 126.59 166.59 206.59 246.59 286.59 326.59 70%-13.21 26.79 66.79 106.79 146.79 186.79 226.79 266.79 306.79 346.79 80%1.94 41.94 81.94 121.94 161.94 201.94 241.94 281.94 321.94 361.94 90%13.72 53.72 93.72 133.72 173.72 213.72 253.72 293.72 333.72 373.72 100%23.15 63.15 103.15 143.15 183.15 223.15 263.15 303.15 343.15 383.15 0200400600800100012001400160018002019-12019-42019-72019-102020-12020-42020-72020-102021-12021-42021-72021-102022-12022-42022-72022-100200400600800100012001400160018002000 000803 2009 1210 16 3 100 SCI 30 20 4%+122 30 26 2022H1 A 27 2019 2020 5 2.9 6.3+3 2022 7 20 4%3.14%3.23%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%山高环能 伟明环保 旺能环境 000803 2009 1210 17 2021 3 28 50-60 60-70/2021-2022 REITs 29 2021 6 CCER 720 2021 7 25 A 5182 11.68/6 2022 4-600 CCER 2 2022 4 REITs REITs 3 30%Pre-REITs REITs 1 UCO 2022-2024 4330/6000/8000/60%/80%/80%000803 2009 1210 18 2022-2024 7.07/15.47/17.20 29.8%/30.0%/38.3%2 REITs 2021-2025 720 1/3 60 2/2022-2024 2.81/3.20/3.61 32%/33%/34%3 10 2023 10 50%2023-2024 10000/0.83 5 12%22Q3 4 2022-2024 2.42/2.17/1.96 40%42%42%5 2021-3.19%2021 2022-2024 2.57/4.75/6.34 1%/2%/3%30 2023 15.6 2022-2024 1.26 2.74 3.88 PE 34/16/11 000803 2009 1210 19 PE TTM 20 x+2023 20 PE 15.6 31 2023 1 19 2023/01/18)EPS PE X 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 61.59 2.87 4.54 5.38 6.56 20.34 13.60 11.45 9.38 74 37.75 1.39 1.43 3.82 5.08 29.90 26.41 9.88 7.44 29 10.67 12.10 0.34 0.36 0.78 1.10 36 34 16 11 43 Wind EPS PE Wind 32 PE BAND Wind 1 2 UCO 2022 UCO 70%3 4/000803 2009 1210 20 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 324 168 699 1,584 827 1,491 2,647 3,415 0 100 44 71 580 1,087 1,963 2,467 133 601 1,000 1,183 5 9 16 21 153 221 489 494 5 8 15 34 43 79 142 181 103 187 288 371 64 115 204 263 9 16 29 51 115 259 506 577 43 59 78 98 768 1,428 2,880 4,090 1 1 1 1 64 67 72 75-3-3-3-3 20 200 30 30 1 1 1 1 317 368 413 452 1 1 1 1 25 85 95 105 7 7 7 7 890 1,751 2,076 2,368 87 130 263 378 676 691 675 665 0 1 15 14 1,992 3,162 3,361 3,695 7 5 5 5 2,760 4,590 6,241 7,785 80 126 273 387 118 258 458 658-4-5-11-16 0 10 23 37 84 131 284 403 241 451 813 1,022 3 5 10 15 0 0 0 0 81 126 274 388 97 175 311 402 NOPLAT 129 192 366 506 98 98 98 98 EPS()0.34 0.36 0.78 1.10 127 200 250 300 69 118 223 300 750 1,310 2,176 2,817 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 144 354 604 854 0 0 0 0 138.3%80.4%77.5%29.0%548 1,367 1,617 1,867 EBIT 60.0%49.5%90.4%38.1%692 1,721 2,221 2,721 78.4%56.8%117.0%41.9%1,442 3,031 4,397 5,538 1,287 1,523 1,797 2,186 29.8%27.1%25.9%27.8%31 36 47 61 10.1%8.8%10.7%11.8%1,318 1,559 1,844 2,247 ROE 6.1%8.1%14.9%17.3%2,760 4,590 6,241 7,785 ROIC 7.1%6.1%7.8%8.5%52.2%66.0%70.5%71.1%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 71.1%139.7%158.9%163.7%-119-151 225 782 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 221 336 598 772 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4-33-36-64-38-114-632-608-211 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4-322 220 376 223 62 89 109 115 129-39-77 37 146 114 116 134-372-1,280-430-600 16 20 20 24-514-1,119-615-612()-19-180 170 0 0.34 0.36 0.78 1.10 161 19 15 12-0.34-0.43 0.64 2.22 728 1,275 736 703 3.66 4.33 5.11 6.21 270 423 500 500-22-60-80-100 P/E 36 34 16 11 598 598 598 598 P/B 2 3 2 2-118 314-282-295 EV/EBITDA 36 24 13 10 000803 2009 1210 21 2017 2019 2022 2022 000803 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 000803 2009 1210 23(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522