深度报告-20230120-华创证券-福能股份-600483.SH-深度研究报告_立足福建_海风标杆_23页_2mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 20 600483 18.12 11.97 2022H1 599.33/261.6/152.8/184.9 43.7%/25.5%/30.9%90 6 1 15GW+2 7.5 10/6 8/3300-4100 3 1 23 1 8 72%22 23 2 22 23 22 0.817/0.0633/TTF 2022 2024 145.87/148.90/150.93 20.8%/2.1%/1.4%26.42/29.51/35.26 108.3%/11.7%/19.5%23 12x PE 23 354.1 18.12 51%ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()12,077 14,587 14,890 15,093(%)26.4%20.8%2.1%1.4%()1,268 2,642 2,951 3,526(%)-15.2%108.3%11.7%19.5%()0.65 1.35 1.51 1.80()19 9 8 7()1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 2023 1 19 010-63214656 S0360518070002()195,456.91()174,602.81()233.96()209.00(%)51.26()9.50 12/14.28/10.14(12)-27%-17%-8%2%22/01 22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-192023-01-19 300 600483 2009 1210 23 21 23 TTF 2022 2024 145.87/148.90/150.93 20.8%/2.1%/1.4%26.42/29.51/35.26 108.3%/11.7%/19.5%23 12x PE 23 354.1 18.12 51%600483 2009 1210 3.6 1.6 2.7 3.7.9.9 1.9 2.10.12.13 2.14“”“”.15.15 1.15 2.16.16.17.17.18.19 600483 2009 1210 4 1.6 2%.6 3 18 21.7 4 2021%.7 5 2018-2021 GW.7 6 2021 GW.7 7 22Q3.8 8 22Q3.8 9 22Q3%.8 10 2018-2022H1%.8 11 2018-2022Q3ROA/ROE%.9 12 2018-2022Q3%.9 13 2018 2022Q3.9 14.10 15.11 16/.11 17.11 18.12 19.12 20.12 21.13 22 2010-2020/.13 23/.13 24 21 20.14 25.14 26.14 27 GW.15 28 21 GW%.15 29/.15 30.15 31 Q5500/.16 32 23 1%.16 33 LNG/.17 600483 2009 1210 5 34 TTF EUR/WhH.17 35.18 36.19 600483 2009 1210 6 2022H1 599.33/261.6/152.8/184.9 43.7%/25.5%/30.9%90 1 2004 2014 1 60.29%09 8.47%2%Wind 600483 2009 1210 7 2+2021/1.3/1.3/1.5/1.8 22%/22%/25%/30%2019 2021 80%37%3 18 21 4 2021%2021 2021 1.8GW 2020 79.8%1.8GW 5 2018-2021 GW 6 2021 GW 3 2016 2020 2021 600483 2009 1210 8 2022 2018-2020 2020 4%20.2%2021 50%15%2022Q3 54.42%7 22Q3 8 22Q3 Wind Wind 2022Q3 2019-2020 2021 2020 23.89%17.13%2022 22.41%20.74%2020 2021 2022 22.18%-16.17%9 22Q3%10 2018-2022H1%Wind Wind 2018-2020 2020 46.6%2021 50.97%2022Q3 51.26%2018 2022 Q3 2022 Q3 0.2 2021 2022Q3 600483 2009 1210 9 2018-2020 11 2018-2022Q3ROA/ROE%12 2018-2022Q3%Wind Wind 2020 16.54 pct 2021-24.52/-51.69/-85.36 49%13 2018 2022Q3 Wind 1 600483 2009 1210 10 14 2 600483 2009 1210 11 15 6 8/7.5 10/3300-4100 16/17 2025 2020 48.3%48.2%28.1%33.6%25 8500 900 410 10GW+4.8GW 600483 2009 1210 12 18“”22%12%19 20 Wind Wind 15GW+10.3GW+4.8GW 600483 2009 1210 13 21 LCOE/LCOE 2010 0.071/0.089/2020 0.033/0.039/54%/56%0.181/0.162/0.084/0.084/53%/48%2022 11 15000/3 13000/13%22 2010-2020/23/IRENA 21 21 0.85/600483 2009 1210 14 24 21 20 2 1GW+70 0.19/+30 0.2/25 26 600483 2009 1210 15“”“”1 2018 1.32GW 21 1.32GW/1.30GW/1.53GW 32%/31%/37%27 GW 28 21 GW%2021 267/2021 5800+1004 29/30 Wind 600483 2009 1210 16 2 23 1 23 1 8 72%2 22 23 31 Q5500/32 23 1%Wind 2022 9 22 23 2022 1 1 3 0.5863/79.4728/(3.033/)0.0633/0.817/22 LNG 6776/21 4935/TTF 600483 2009 1210 17 33 LNG/34 TTF EUR/WhH Wind Bloomberg 2022 2024 145.87/148.90/150.93 20.8%/2.1%/1.4%26.42/29.51/35.26 108.3%/11.7%/19.5%22-24 22-24 119.10/121.17/122.21 25.5%/1.7%/0.9%22 26.94 21 22-24 29.48/28.60/27.74-12%/-3%/-3%22-24 5%/5%/5%17.62/18.50/19.43 1%/1%/1%7.37/7.44/7.52 600483 2009 1210 18 35 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 93.54 99.45 95.57 120.77 145.87 148.90 150.93 YOY%37.6%6.3%-3.9%26.4%20.8%2.1%1.4%75.21 78.72 72.75 100.08 109.04 107.06 100.38 YOY%39.4%4.7%-7.6%37.6%9.0%-1.8%-6.2%19.6%20.8%23.9%17.1%25.2%28.1%33.5%76.16 80.93 74.88 94.92 119.10 121.17 122.21 YOY%47.5%6.3%-7.5%26.8%25.5%1.7%0.9%61.10 63.55 57.71 77.49 86.17 83.32 75.73 YOY%52.3%4.0%-9.2%34.3%11.2%-3.3%-9.1%19.8%21.5%22.9%18.4%27.6%31.2%38.0%7.80 9.73 10.01 16.78 17.62 18.50 19.43 YOY%33.3%24.7%2.9%67.7%5.0%5.0%5.0%6.20 7.34 7.41 14.91 15.86 16.65 17.49 YOY%34.2%18.4%1.0%101.2%6.4%5.0%5.0%20.5%24.6%26.0%11.2%10.0%10.0%10.0%7.97 7.33 7.67 7.29 7.37 7.44 7.52 YOY%-16.7%-8.0%4.6%-4.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%7.45 6.96 6.93 7.04 7.00 7.07 7.14 YOY%-16.4%-6.6%-0.4%1.7%-0.6%1.0%1.0%6.5%5.0%9.6%3.4%5.0%5.0%5.0%1.61 1.46 3.01 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 YOY%73.1%-9.3%106.2%-41.2%-0.46 0.87 0.22 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 YOY%48.4%89.1%-74.7%-98.1%-%71.4%40.4%92.7%98.9%98.9%98.9%98.9%Wind 22 22 24 26.42/29.51/35.26 23 12x PE 23 354.1 18.12 51%600483 2009 1210 19 36 Wind 2021 600483 2009 1210 20 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2,915 2,934 3,148 3,996 12,077 14,587 14,890 15,093 10 114 52 50 10,008 10,905 10,707 10,038 3,001 3,205 3,447 3,725 76 108 107 108 229 198 200 198 34 41 42 43 529 650 606 578 238 287 293 297 0 0 0 0 71 231 236 239 489 597 577 585 509 497 579 685 7,173 7,698 8,030 9,132-1-2-2-2 3 3 3 3-62-62-62-62 7,585 7,585 7,585 7,585 0 0 0 0 18,317 19,992 21,755 23,333 547 983 983 983 7,508 8,805 10,361 12,096 73 60 60 60 471 424 381 343 1,702 3,507 3,915 4,672 2,928 2,925 2,924 2,922 11 16 15 15 36,812 39,734 43,009 46,282 41 41 41 41 43,985 47,432 51,039 55,414 1,672 3,482 3,889 4,646 1,830 1,830 1,830 1,830 147 305 340 406 14 42 27 20 1,525 3,177 3,549 4,240 2,705 1,950 1,976 2,034 257 535 598 714 0 0 0 0 1,268 2,642 2,951 3,526 45 54 55 56 NOPLAT 1,990 3,631 4,077 4,865 160 160 160 160 EPS()0.65 1.35 1.51 1.80 1,140 1,140 1,140 1,140 272 482 528 611 6,166 5,658 5,716 5,851 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 14,148 15,148 15,148 15,148 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 26.4%20.8%2.1%1.4%934 934 934 934 EBIT-4.9%82.5%12.3%19.3%16,255 17,255 17,255 17,255-15.2%108.3%11.7%19.5%22,421 22,913 22,971 23,106 17,689 20,108 23,059 26,585 17.1%25.2%28.1%33.5%3,875 4,411 5,009 5,723 12.6%21.8%23.8%28.1%21,564 24,519 28,068 32,308 ROE 5.9%10.8%10.5%10.9%43,985 47,432 51,039 55,414 ROIC 7.2%11.5%11.7%12.5%51.0%48.3%45.0%41.7%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 89.2%82.5%72.1%62.6%2,313 2,865 4,555 5,380 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 3,311 5,067 5,638 6,560 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5-84-121 44 28-280-214-120-213 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3-728-727 11 51 86 77 80 86 94-1,140-1,018-1,047 72 77 66 72-8,536-4,319-4,789-4,912 18 19 21 21-9,131-4,318-4,787-4,910()-598 0 0 0 0.65 1.35 1.51 1.80 1,193-1-2-2 1.18 1.47 2.33 2.75 7,038 1,473 448 380 9.05 10.29 11.80 13.60 6,494 1,000 0 0-1,184-544-629-738 P/E 19 9 8 7 564 564 564 564 P/B 1 1 1 1 1,164 453 513 554 EV/EBITDA 19 12 11 9 600483 2009 1210 21 2017 2019 2022 2022 600483 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 600483 2009 1210 23(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522