深度报告-20230119-东方证券-浮法玻璃行业深度报告_竣工和成本端共同推动下_浮法玻璃有望迎来弱复苏_20页_453kb.pdf

|23 21 74%23 22/22H2 23 74%25%/2013 2.0%/15.9%/21.0%4 0.7/23 3.7%22 15.0%22 11 23/22H2 23 23 10.96 YoY+0.2%10.73 YoY+1.7%23 22 21 beta(601636)(00868)(03300)A(000012)/2023 01 19 021-63325888*6074 S0860520030001 BTB520 S0860521120002 2023-01-10 2023-01-03 2022-12-29 EPS PE 21 22E 23E 21 22E 23E 601636 12.16 1.58 0.75 1.05 7.71 16.11 11.54 00868 16.54 2.81 2.53 2.60 5.88 6.54 6.35 000012 A 6.78 0.50 0.67 0.79 13.62 10.07 8.56.2 2022.5.5.6 2023.8.8.13.15.17.18 3 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5 2022.6 6 2020.6 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.7 11 3 2022.9 12 2023.9 13.9 14.9 15.10 16.10 17.11 18.11 19.11 20.11 21 t/d.12 22.12 23.13 24.13 25.13 26 2023.13 27 2023.14 28.14 29.14 30.14 31.15 32.15 1 2022.6 4 2 2022 9.8 3%.10 4 2022.12 5/.15 6 2023.16 5 2022 2022 2022 2022 8.6 YoY-15.0%2022 1-11 12.1 11.2 12.4 YoY-23.3%-38.9%-9.8%1 2 2022 2021 2022H1 2022H2 3 4-60-40-200204060802014-12 2016-11 2018-10 2020-09 2022-08%-50-40-30-20-1001020302012-12 2015-05 2017-10 2020-03 2022-08%-400-2000200400600800-60-40-200204060801002019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q4%()-2002040608001002003004005006007002019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q4()6 2022Q3 2022 17.25 t/d 2022 7 17.25 t/d 16.18 t/d 89.3%81.3%2022Q3 2022Q4 17 14 1.10 t/d 0.84 t/d 5 2022 6 2020 1 2022 t/d 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 0 3 7 3 2 6 2 0 0 2 1 3 1 8 5 7 3 7 6 5 2 6 3 1 4 8 4 3 2 6 2 8 7 3 16 14(3)3 8 7 3 7 6(3)(5)5(12)(10)0 2,100 5,280 1,750 1,300 3,900 1,800 0 0 1,600 65 2,600 260 4,650 3,200 4,750 2,150 4,600 4,300 3,550 1,450 4,200 2,250 800 2,850 5,550 2,900 2,350 1,400 3,650 1,800 5,050 4,050 1,900 10,550 8,550(2,590)1,200 5,580 4,150 2,050 4,850 4,300(1,500)(2,600)3,900(8,235)(5,150)2022 2022 122.5/81.3/2022 2.3/-2.2/7476788082848688909294121314151617182016-04 2017-09 2019-02 2020-07 2021-12 t/d%()-15000-10000-500005000100002020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q3 2022Q2 t/d t/d t/d t/d 7 7 8 2022 2022 2,400/2,950/2022 447.2/3.34/3.91/3,191.6/5,596.3/4,421.6/10 35 12 2022 59.5/80.0/73.6/85/2022Q1-3 12.5 YoY-66.0%12.7%YoY-21.3pct 9 10 05001000150020002500300035002017-03 2018-08 2020-01 2021-06 2022-11/-200204060801002017-03 2018-08 2020-01 2021-06 2022-11()/()/0100200300400500600050010001500200025003000350040002017-03 2018-08 2020-01 2021-06 2022-11/()01000200030004000500060003.03.23.43.63.84.02017-03 2018-08 2020-01 2021-06 2022-11/()8 2023 2022 9 2022 9 9 23 1 11 2 2022 9 9 29 2022 6-8 2022 9 30 2022 10 1 0.15 5 5 5 2.6%3.1%9 30 2022 10 1 2023 12 31 1 11 9 2500 11 13 1.2.3.4.5.6.11 14 11 28 1.2.3.4.REITs 5.1 5 2023 3.7%2023 3 2022 2022 2023 9 2023 3.7%2023 3.7%9 11 3 2022 12 2023%2023 74%26%/2013 2.0%15.9%21.0%4 2023 13 2021 14-50-40-30-20-1001020302016-02 2018-01 2019-12 2021-11 2023-10%3%-25-20-15-10-50510152025 74.0%18.0%8.0%-30-20-1001020302012Q4 2014Q3 2016Q2 2018Q1 2019Q4 2021Q3%10 3%20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4(37.8)16.8 5.9 9.9 80.0(6.7)(5.3)(5.2)(1.5)(12.2)7.4 0.7(15.8)(3.4)(14.1)1.4 22.9 28.8 18.1 1.0(11.5)(32.6)(15.7)(15.5)(0.195)(1)16.0(15.8)(3.4)(14.1)1.4 22.9 28.8 18.1 1.0(11.5)(32.6)(15.7)0.156(2)2.3 16.0(15.8)(3.4)(14.1)1.4 22.9 28.8 18.1 1.0(11.5)(32.6)0.452(3)(15.0)2.3 16.0(15.8)(3.4)(14.1)1.4 22.9 28.8 18.1 1.0(11.5)0.571(4)(10.8)(15.0)2.3 16.0(15.8)(3.4)(14.1)1.4 22.9 28.8 18.1 1.0 0.696 15 16 2023 30 2010 5 10%6 9 35%2022 2022 8 59 24.5%2023 30 1.8 t/d-20-15-10-50510152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%y=-0.79 x+27.75 R=0.47-40-30-20-10010203040-20 0 20 40 60-/%/%11 17 18 2023 25 56%3 2022 40 2.5 t/d 2023 40 11 6,750t/d 2023 29 1.83 t/d 50%2023 25 1.6 t/d 19 20 2023 9 6,650t/d 2023 9 2023 6,650t/d 2023 4 4,650t/d 051015202530354045024681012141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11%()0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 20220-2 2-5 5-8 8-10 10-12 12 0510152025303501020304050601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12%()0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1 1-2 2-3 3 12 4 2023 t/d 850.0 600.0 700.0 900.0 800.0 800.0 600.0 600.0 800.0 21 t/d 22-2023 2023 2021-20000-15000-10000-50000500010000150002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 y=0.10 x-2.19 R=0.58-4-3-2-1012345-20 0 20 40 60-/%/%13 28.2%13.0%44.0%5.0%10.6 34.5 12.2 6.9 23 2022 24 2023 6.7%37.9%11.2%11.3%4.7%2023 2022 2023 2500 YoY+58.5%13.5%190 2022 6.7%25 26 2023 28.2%13.0%44.0%5.0%1.5%8.3%0510152025303540 37.9%11.2%11.3%4.7%6.6%28.2%-202468101214164000500060007000800090002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E%()14 2023 2022 3,200 83%2023 500 60 20 20 600 350 12.2%2023 12.2%6.7%2023 27 2023 28 2023 2021 50%2022 42.7%LNG 50%12%12%2022 29 30 2900300031003200330034003500360037002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E-30-20-1001020304050-20-15-10-5051015202019Q2 2020Q1 2020Q4 2021Q3 2022Q2%()%()-15-10-50510152018Q4 2019Q3 2020Q2 2021Q1 2021Q4 2022Q3%49.9%7.5%12.1%16.1%12.0%2.4%LNG-LNG-15 2021 2021-2025 800t/d 13.5 9.5kgce/800t/d 8.0 12.0kgce/2020 11.56kgce/2025 30%5/500-800t/d 800t/d 13.5 12.0 9.5 8.0 2021-2025 2023 2,550/107/2022 94.5/12.5 25.2/4/4/2023 1.2.3.4.2023 2023 25.2/107/4/31 32-100102030405060708090-100-500501001502002019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q4%/()-30-20-100102030405060-20-15-10-5 0 5 10 15%/16 2023 2023 16.77 5,900t/d(4,650t/d)2022 2023 10.96 2022 10.73 2022 6 2023 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E t/d 149300 152950 155885 164225 173925 161840 167740 t/d 5020 5290 4715 9130 7000 4265 6650 t/d 15570 12950 10880 13650 11900 25050 16650 t/d 9470 11310 9100 12860 14600 8700 15900 98628 102317 101031 101009 110758 109396 109644%4.3 3.7(1.3)0.0 9.7(1.2)0.2 445 430 805 1120 1033 439 2248 1724 1330 844 776 1402 3442 3919 3394 2153 5513 8481 95781 100546 101030 102526 107654 105464 107262%5.3 5.0 0.5 1.5 5.0(2.0)1.7/20.0 22.2 23.2 34.4 57.3 11.8 25.2 17 1.23 21 74%23 22/22H2 23 2.74%25%/2013 2.0%/15.9%/21.0%4 0.7/23 3.7%22 15.0%22 11 23 3./22H2 23 4.23 10.96 YoY+0.2%10.73 YoY+1.7%23 22 21 18 1.3.7%2.3.4.19 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer