20230225-华安证券-农林牧渔行业周报_种猪补栏积极性持续疲弱_大体重猪与标猪价差基本持平_50页_1mb (1).pdf

Table_IndNameRptType 行业研究/行业周报 Table_IndRank Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010520070003 Table_Report 1.2023-2-18 2.USDA2 2023-2-11 3.1607 2023-2-4 主要观 点：_S 7.2%8.9%8%1 8.6 1 8.6-30%-20%-10%0%10%22-0222-0422-0622-0822-1022-1223-02()300Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/50 证券研究报告 USDA2 2 0.1 2 2 0.1 Table_CompanyRptType 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 3/50 证券研究报告 1.7 1.1 2.66%.7 1.2.9 1.3.9 2.11 2.1.11 2.1.1.11 2.1.2.15 2.1.3.17 2.1.4.18 2.2.20 2.2.1.20 2.2.2.22 2.2.3.25 2.3.25 2.4.26 3.28 3.1.28.31 3.2.31 3.3.36 4.38 4.1 2 3.39 4.2.39 4.3 2023.40 4.4 2023 2 4.49.49 Table_CompanyRptType 4/50 1 2022 300.7 2 2022.7 3 2022.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 7 PE PB 2010.10 8 PE 2010.10 9 PB 2010.10 10 PE PB 2010.10 11 2010.10 12 300 2010.10 13 CBOT/.11 14/.11 15 CBOT/.11 16/.11 17 CBOT/.12 18/.12 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.13 23.13 24.14 25.14 26.14 27.14 28.15 29.15 30 CBOT/.16 31/.16 32 CBOT/.16 33/.16 34.16 35.17 36.17 37 NYBOT11/.18 38/.18 39.18 40 IPE/.18 Table_CompanyRptType 5/50 41 NYMEX/.19 42/.19 43.19 44.19 45.20 46/.20 47/.20 48/.21 49.21 50.21 51/.21 52/.21 53,/.21 54/.22 55 90.22 56 150.22 57.22 58/.23 59.23 60.23 61.23 62.23 63.23 64/.24 65/.24 66/.24 67/500.24 68/.24 69/.24 70/.25 71/.25 72%.25 73%.25 74/.26 75/.26 76/.26 77/.26 78.27 79.27 80.27 81.27 82.27 83.27 84.28 Table_CompanyRptType 6/50 85.28 86.28 87.30 88.31 89.35 90 2023 2/.36 Table_CompanyRptType 7/50 1 1.1 2.66%2022 31 9 8.0%300 17.80%14.15%2023 2 20-2 24 2.66%300 0.66%0.89%300 2 1 2022 300 wind 2 2022 wind-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2021-12-312022-01-142022-01-282022-02-112022-02-252022-03-112022-03-252022-04-082022-04-222022-05-062022-05-202022-06-032022-06-172022-07-012022-07-152022-07-292022-08-122022-08-262022-09-092022-09-232022-10-072022-10-212022-11-042022-11-182022-12-022022-12-162022-12-302023-01-132023-01-272023-02-10()300-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Table_CompanyRptType 8/50 2022 0.2%-4.7%-5.1%-9.2%-11.2%-13.4%3 2022 wind 4(%)52 52 1-0.82 11.49 8.49 13.29 13.87 11.79 2-0.32 11.21 1.82 15.68 16.15 14.00 3 4.87 8.19 8.56 25.63 26.55 23.34 4 4.00 8.04 16.95 12.49 12.50 11.30 5 0.41 7.68-1.55 22.30 22.98 20.68 6 ST 0.68 7.61 13.36 2.97 3.05 2.76 7 1.36 6.47 11.75 20.07 20.55 18.50 8-0.85 6.17 4.99 19.79 20.57 18.44 9 4.49 5.33 21.40 15.60 15.63 14.56 10 0.32 5.31 0.85 38.05 38.65 34.46 wind 0.2%-4.7%-5.1%-9.2%-11.2%-13.4%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Table_CompanyRptType 9/50 5(%)52 52 1-0.83-8.02-22.25 47.60 52.19 47.10 2-2.00-5.41-3.32 40.20 43.66 40.14 3 2.36-4.70 7.15 30.42 32.80 29.49 4 ST-1.81-2.31 1.33 3.80 3.94 3.79 5-1.00-1.99-11.26 17.74 18.30 17.60 6 0.00-1.01 2.35 3.92 4.05 3.85 7 ST-0.38-0.77 7.02 2.59 2.67 2.53 8-1.21-0.49-1.21 4.08 4.18 4.04 9-0.72-0.43 4.70 6.90 7.07 6.84 10-1.12-0.38-7.73 13.25 13.58 13.13 wind 1.2 2022 0.71%0.08 0.14 0.15 6 wind 1.3 2023 2 24 PE PB-147.57 3.26 2010 PE PB 69.57 3.76 PE PB-3.32 1.19 1.77 1.070.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02006Q12006Q32007Q12007Q32008Q12008Q32009Q12009Q32010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q3%Table_CompanyRptType 10/50 300 PE PB-12.44 2.53 5.57 2.38 7 PE PB 2010 8 PE 2010 wind wind 9 PB 2010 10 PE PB 2010 wind wind 11 2010 12 300 2010 wind wind 012345678-2003008001300180023002010/1/82011/1/82012/1/82013/1/82014/1/82015/1/82016/1/82017/1/82018/1/82019/1/82020/1/82021/1/82022/1/82023/1/8 PE PB-500501001502010/1/82011/1/82012/1/82013/1/82014/1/82015/1/82016/1/82017/1/82018/1/82019/1/82020/1/82021/1/82022/1/82023/1/8SW SW 123456789102010/1/82010/9/82011/5/82012/1/82012/9/82013/5/82014/1/82014/9/82015/5/82016/1/82016/9/82017/5/82018/1/82018/9/82019/5/82020/1/82020/9/82021/5/82022/1/82022/9/8SW SW 0246810-6,000-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0002010/1/82010/9/82011/5/82012/1/82012/9/82013/5/82014/1/82014/9/82015/5/82016/1/82016/9/82017/5/82018/1/82018/9/82019/5/82020/1/82020/9/82021/5/82022/1/82022/9/8SW SW 00.511.52-1010305070902010/1/82011/1/82012/1/82013/1/82014/1/82015/1/82016/1/82017/1/82018/1/82019/1/82020/1/82021/1/82022/1/82023/1/8 PE PB 00.511.522.533.54-1535851351852352010/1/82011/1/82012/1/82013/1/82014/1/82015/1/82016/1/82017/1/82018/1/82019/1/82020/1/82021/1/82022/1/82023/1/8 300PE 300PBTable_CompanyRptType 11/50 2 2.1 2.1.1 2906.00/0.11%6.39%5340.0/1.95%4477.14/1.63%5.42%CBOT 650.00/3.77%5.87%CBOT 1529.25/0.18%7.82%CBOT 498.80/1.46%7.2%13 CBOT/14/wind wind 15 CBOT/16/wind wind 2003004005006007008009002013-01-022014-01-022015-01-022016-01-022017-01-022018-01-022019-01-022020-01-022021-01-022022-01-022023-01-02():CBOT 13001500170019002100230025002700290031002013-01-042013-08-042014-03-042014-10-042015-05-042015-12-042016-07-042017-02-042017-09-042018-04-042018-11-042019-06-042020-01-042020-08-042021-03-042021-10-042022-05-042022-12-04:6008001000120014001600180020002013-01-022014-01-022015-01-022016-01-022017-01-022018-01-022019-01-022020-01-022021-01-022022-01-022023-01-02():CBOT 280033003800430048005300580063002013-01-042013-08-042014-03-042014-10-042015-05-042015-12-042016-07-042017-02-042017-09-042018-04-042018-11-042019-06-042020-01-042020-08-042021-03-042021-10-042022-05-042022-12-04:Table_CompanyRptType 12/50 17 CBOT/18/wind wind 2023 2 2022/23(12 11)11.51 11.62 2.95 22.0%0.1%21/22 0.2 2022/23 3.49 3.04 0.32 9.1%21/22 0.09 2022/23 2.77 2.97 2.97 69.8%21/22 2.07 2002503003504004505005506002013-01-022014-01-022015-01-022016-01-022017-01-022018-01-022019-01-022020-01-022021-01-022022-01-022023-01-02():CBOT 2300280033003800430048005300580063002013-01-042013-08-042014-03-042014-10-042015-05-042015-12-042016-07-042017-02-042017-09-042018-04-042018-11-042019-06-042020-01-042020-08-042021-03-042021-10-042022-05-042022-12-04:19 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 132.16 132.74 174.80 209.73 311.48 351.96 340.97 322.41 307.41 292.84 306.28 868.00 991.38 1,016.03 972.21 1,123.41 1,080.09 1,124.92 1,120.13 1,129.50 1,216.00 1,151.36 99.43 123.95 125.17 139.23 135.59 149.93 164.42 167.66 184.94 184.50 177.00 517.95 570.33 584.70 601.58 656.07 672.36 703.88 716.03 723.98 749.84 729.14 864.73 949.34 981.01 968.01 1,084.14 1,090.45 1,144.82 1,136.17 1,144.08 1,202.55 1,162.37 95.16 131.10 142.20 119.74 160.06 148.24 181.71 172.25 182.70 204.73 181.07 135.43 174.79 209.82 213.93 350.75 341.60 321.07 306.37 292.84 306.28 295.28 14.1%16.2%18.7%19.7%28.2%27.6%24.2%23.4%22.1%21.8%22.0%USAD 2 20 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 25.12 20.86 31.29 43.97 44.12 58.25 54.37 56.41 48.76 31.36 34.98 273.19 351.27 361.09 345.51 384.78 371.10 364.26 345.96 358.45 382.89 348.75 4.06 0.91 0.80 1.72 1.45 0.92 0.71 1.06 0.62 0.62 1.27 109.60 128.02 134.11 129.91 138.94 134.73 137.91 149.87 142.43 145.25 133.99 262.97 292.97 301.79 298.79 313.83 313.98 310.45 309.55 306.69 317.12 303.93 18.55 48.78 47.42 48.29 58.27 61.92 52.48 45.13 69.78 62.78 48.90 20.86 31.29 43.97 44.12 58.25 54.37 56.41 48.76 31.36 34.98 32.17 7.4%9.2%12.6%12.7%15.7%14.5%15.5%13.7%8.3%9.2%9.1%USAD 2 Table_CompanyRptType 13/50 2023 2 2022/23 3.83 3.76 1.02 18.8%0.1 21/22 0.39 16/17 22/23 1.16 0.64 0.06 5.2%21/22 0.4 2022/23 0.20 1.15 0.32 28.0%21/22 1.14 21 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 59.34 67.57 81.32 100.47 212.02 223.02 222.53 210.18 200.53 205.70 209.14 205.61 218.49 215.65 224.63 263.61 259.07 257.17 260.78 260.67 272.55 277.2 2.70 3.28 5.52 3.17 2.46 3.46 4.48 7.48 29.51 21.88 18 144.00 150.00 140.00 153.50 185.00 187.00 191.00 193.00 203.00 209.00 216 200.00 208.00 202.00 217.50 255.00 263.00 274.00 278.00 285.00 291.00 297 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 67.57 81.32 100.47 110.77 223.02 222.53 210.16 200.53 205.70 209.14 207.32 33.8%39.1%49.7%50.9%87.4%84.6%76.7%72.1%72.2%71.9%69.8%USAD 2 22 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 54.45 54.67 61.65 77.90 80.41 94.80 100.66 115.24 94.55 99.75 98.83 268.77 207.04 319.60 313.77 349.31 342.09 361.04 339.97 368.52 358.00 383.01 95.91 111.78 124.36 133.33 144.22 153.23 145.88 165.12 165.55 157.08 164.07 261.20 274.82 301.85 313.94 330.78 338.03 344.28 358.32 363.87 362.11 376.41 100.53 112.70 126.22 132.56 147.50 153.08 148.83 165.17 164.99 153.89 167.47 57.39 61.67 77.53 78.50 95.65 99.02 114.48 96.84 99.75 98.83 102.03 15.9%15.9%18.1%17.6%20.0%20.2%23.2%18.5%18.9%19.2%18.8%USAD 2 23 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 4.61 3.83 2.50 5.19 5.35 8.21 11.92 24.74 14.28 6.99 7.47 82.79 91.39 106.88 106.86 116.93 120.07 120.52 96.67 114.75 121.53 116.38 1.10 1.95 0.90 0.64 0.61 0.59 0.38 0.42 0.54 0.43 0.41 48.83 50.09 54.96 54.47 55.72 58.87 60.40 61.85 60.91 62.77 63.97 35.85 44.57 50.14 52.86 58.96 58.07 47.68 45.70 61.67 58.72 54.16 3.83 2.50 5.19 5.35 8.21 11.92 24.74 14.28 6.99 7.47 6.13 4.5%2.6%4.9%5.0%7.2%10.2%22.9%13.3%14.28 6.99 7.47 USAD 2 Table_CompanyRptType 14/50 2023 2 2022/23 0.61 0.60 0.047 6.5%21/22 0.19 2022/23 0.12 0.12 88 7.3%21/22 0.17 2022/23 0.17 0.17 55 3.1%21/22 1.70 24 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 15.91 12.38 13.85 17.01 17.14 20.12 23.06 19.46 24.61 31.15 31.40 13.05 11.95 12.15 11.79 13.64 15.28 15.97 18.09 19.60 16.40 20.33 59.87 70.36 78.35 83.23 93.50 94.10 82.54 98.53 99.74 91.57 96.00 76.18 80.60 87.20 95.00 103.50 106.30 102.00 109.20 112.74 107.60 115.30 0.27 0.22 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.10 12.38 13.88 17.01 16.91 20.66 23.06 19.46 26.79 31.15 31.40 32.33 16.2%17.2%19.5%17.8%19.9%21.7%19.1%24.5%27.6%29.2%28.0%USAD 2 25 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 4.13 3.85 3.81 4.31 3.75 3.99 3.93 4.66 5.29 5.30 4.47 43.10 45.00 49.20 51.56 53.72 55.13 55.98 58.52 59.32 59.02 60.91 8.47 9.27 10.04 11.64 10.97 9.86 10.75 11.52 11.71 11.45 11.23 42.59 45.15 47.88 52.07 53.41 54.59 55.11 57.11 58.42 59.16 59.86 9.36 9.42 11.09 11.77 11.24 10.54 11.24 12.36 12.61 12.14 12.10 3.76 3.54 4.07 3.67 3.79 3.84 4.31 5.24 5.30 4.47 4.65 7.2%6.5%6.9%5.7%5.9%5.9%6.5%7.5%7.5%6.3%6.5%USAD 2 26 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 1.15 0.75 0.53 0.84 0.77 0.78 0.91 0.81 0.84 0.97 0.90 8.99 9.13 9.71 9.96 10.04 10.78 10.98 11.30 11.35 11.86 11.91 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14 8.48 8.58 8.60 9.15 9.01 9.70 10.38 10.12 10.58 11.26 11.75 0.98 0.85 0.91 1.02 1.16 1.11 0.88 1.29 0.79 0.80 0.32 0.77 0.53 0.84 0.77 0.78 0.91 0.81 0.84 0.97 0.90 0.88 8.1%5.6%8.8%7.6%7.7%8.4%7.2%7.4%8.5%7.5%7.3%USAD 2 27 Table_CompanyRptType 15/50 2023 2 2022/23 2.54 2.51 1,355 4.2%21/22 0.29 2022/23 0.48 0.36 32 0.7%21/22 0.08 2.1.2 3164.44/0.78%8.70%2 20 3,803.3/10 0.30%CBOT 705.5/7.75%23.79%CBOT 16.82/4.35%11.32%12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 0.62 1.02 0.97 0.78 0.66 0.67 0.57 0.50 0.78 1.03 0.24 11.63 12.34 13.35 14.61 15.77 16.13 15.23 16.40 16.67 15.68 16.85 1.41 1.35 0.77 0.59 0.71 0.48 0.78 1.00 1.23 0.29 1.00 12.55 13.66 14.20 15.35 16.35 16.50 15.89 17.09 17.60 16.65 17.45 0.08 0.09 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.21 0.20 0.16 0.04 0.11 0.09 1.02 0.96 0.78 0.52 0.67 0.57 0.50 0.65 1.03 0.24 0.55 8.1%7.0%5.5%3.4%4.1%3.4%3.1%3.8%5.8%1.4%3.1%USAD 2 28 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 10.02 9.48 10.55 13.88 13.44 13.77 14.40 15.66 15.21 14.64 14.09 181.29 189.46 207.98 215.96 225.55 232.45 233.87 245.50 248.22 245.52 254.38 53.83 57.93 60.88 61.75 60.40 61.13 62.80 62.01 64.44 65.87 65.45 177.40 186.22 201.74 213.08 221.66 228.88 229.86 240.13 243.89 243.50 250.95 57.94 60.16 64.46 65.43 64.55 64.90 67.74 67.61 69.35 68.44 69.41 9.80 10.49 13.21 13.09 13.18 13.57 13.47 15.42 14.64 14.09 13.55 4.2%4.3%5.0%4.7%4.6%4.6%4.5%5.0%4.7%4.5%4.2%USAD 2 29 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 0.27 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.36 0.50 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.28 36.17 36.91 40.88 40.53 40.63 44.66 44.28 46.36 45.87 47.00 47.75 0.22 0.35 0.30 0.37 0.32 0.44 0.62 0.58 0.71 0.59 0.54 26.28 26.81 29.28 30.04 30.32 32.24 32.85 34.44 34.18 35.35 35.83 10.14 10.47 11.89 10.84 10.51 12.72 12.19 12.55 12.41 12.27 12.43 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.36 0.50 0.37 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.32 0.7%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.9%1.1%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.7%USAD 2 Table_CompanyRptType 16/50 30 CBOT/31/wind wind 32 CBOT/33/wind wind 2023 2 2022/23 7.83 7.9 2.69 26.8%21/22 1.0 15/16 2022/23 0.45 0.3 0.15 29.9%21/22 7.07 2022/23 1.38 1.44 1.44 99.8%21/22 4.6 3005007009001100130015002013-01-022014-01-022015-01-022016-01-022017-01-022018-01-022019-01-022020-01-022021-01-022022-01-022023-01-02():CBOT 210023002500270029003100330035002013-01-042013-08-042014-03-042014-10-042015-05-042015-12-042016-07-042017-02-042017-09-042018-04-042018-11-042019-06-042020-01-042020-08-042021-03-042021-10-042022-05-042022-12-04:579111315171921232013-01-022013-09-022014-05-022015-01-022015-09-022016-05-022017-01-022017-09-022018-05-022019-01-022019-09-022020-05-022021-01-022021-09-022022-05-022023-01-02():CBOT 36003700380039004000410042004300440045002013-12-312014-07-312015-02-282015-09-302016-04-302016-11-302017-06-302018-01-312018-08-312019-03-312019-10-312020-05-312020-12-312021-07-312022-02-282022-09-30:34 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 196.84 177.06 194.89 218.69 245.00 262.79 287.18 281.21 298.22 290.06 276.70 658.72 715.36 728.07 735.21 756.40 762.88 731.00 762.37 774.55 779.33 783.80 145.29 158.37 159.07 170.19 179.17 181.04 171.27 188.37 194.78 199.23 207.09 136.98 126.68 131.60 136.55 147.04 146.63 139.25 139.65 157.90 160.29 157.76 679.96 698.33 705.38 711.16 739.09 741.98 734.81 746.75 782.71 792.69 791.16 137.36 165.91 164.45 172.84 183.36 182.47 173.67 193.87 203.33 202.86 212.95 175.59 194.09 217.58 242.74 262.31 283.69 283.37 296.83 290.06 276.70 269.34 Table_CompanyRptType 17/50 2.1.3 5950.0/1.02%3.66%5953/1.41%4.35%2022 12 527 7.1%NYBOT 11 21.32/0.42%16.82%IPE 83.23/0.10%16.28%21.5%22.5%25.0%27.5%28.4%30.7%31.2%31.6%29.4%27.8%26.8%USAD 2 35 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 20.21 19.54 16.07 20.48 26.55 32.13 29.91 29.39 27.99 23.00 19.01 61.30 58.11 55.15 56.12 62.83 47.38 51.31 52.58 49.75 44.80 44.90 3.34 4.71 4.12 3.07 3.21 4.30 3.66 2.83 2.73 2.59 3.27 9.90 6.20 3.09 4.07 4.37 1.29 2.39 2.59 2.54 1.60 2.18 37.77 34.29 31.33 31.94 31.86 29.25 29.99 30.44 30.41 29.61 30.62 27.54 32.00 23.52 21.17 28.60 24.66 25.50 26.37 27.05 21.78 21.09 19.54 16.07 20.48 26.55 32.13 29.91 29.39 27.99 23.00 19.01 15.47 29.9%24.2%37.3%50.0%53.1%55.5%53.0%49.3%40.0%37.0%29.9%USAD 2 36 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 55.95 53.96 65.27 76.11 97.00 114.93 131.20 138.09 150.02 144.12 141.76 121.02 121.93 126.21 130.19 133.27 134.33 131.43 133.60 134.25 136.95 137.72 2.96 6.77 1.93 3.48 4.41 3.94 3.15 5.38 10.62 9.57 10.00 25.00 16.00 16.00 10.50 17.00 17.50 20.00 19.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 125.00 116.50 116.50 112.00 119.00 121.00 125.00 126.00 150.00 148.00 144.00 0.97 0.89 0.80 0.73 0.75 1.00 1.01 1.05 0.76 0.88 0.90 53.96 65.27 76.11 97.04 114.93 131.20 139.77 150.02 144.12 141.76 144.58 42.8%55.6%64.9%86.1