深度报告-20230120-华创证券-铜冠铜箔-301217.SZ-深度研究报告_标箔_锂箔齐发力_领军HVLP铜箔国产替代_34页_2mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 20 301217 HVLP 15.7 13.04 2010 2022 1 19 5G RTF 5G 5G RTF HVLP HVLP HVLP 8 m 22 HVLP 2022-2024 38.9/47.2/61.4 2.9/4.3/6.9 EPS 0.35/0.52/0.83 23 30 xPE 15.7 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()4,082 3,891 4,719 6,143(%)65.9%-4.7%21.3%30.2%()368 294 435 687(%)412.5%-20.1%48.1%58.0%()0.59 0.35 0.52 0.83()22 37 25 16()3.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 2023 1 19 S0360522080001()82,901.55()20,312.97()108.10()26.49(%)8.68()6.77 12/21.70/11.96(12)-45%-30%-14%1%22/01 22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-272023-01-19 300 301217 2009 1210 5G HVLP 22 6 m 80%1 5G IDC+2 5G RTF HVLP 3 22 80%2022-2024 1.22-24 4.1 4.9 6.3 22-24 22-24 2.7 3.4 3.5 1.4 1.5 2.8 2.5G 22-24 2.2 2.5 2.9/22-24 3.5 3.5 3.5/3.22-24 6.0/22-24 10%14%17%22-24 16%17%18%22-24 11%14%16%2022-2024 38.9/47.2/61.4 2.9/4.3/6.9 EPS 0.35/0.52/0.83 23 30 xPE 15.7 301217 2009 1210 3.7.7.7.8.11.11 5G IDC.12 1 PCB.12 2 5G.13 3 25 200 CAGR10.4%.17.18 1.18 2.19.20 1 HVLP.20 2.21 3.22.23.23.24 1+.24 2.24.25 1.25 2.26 3.26.28.28.29.30 301217 2009 1210 4 1.7 2.7 3 2022 9 30.8 4 2018-2022Q3.8 5 2022H1.9 6 2018-2022H1.9 7 2017-2022Q3.9 8 2021/.9 9.10 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.11 14.11 15.11 16 2021 PCB.11 17 PCB.12 18.12 19.12 20 2014-2021 PCB.13 21 PCB.13 22 PCB.13 23.14 24(HTE/RTF/HVLP).14 25.14 26.14 27.14 28 4G 5G.15 29 2019-2022Q3 5G.15 30 2017-2021.16 31 2017-2021.16 32 2017-2021.16 33 2017-2021.16 301217 2009 1210 5 34 2016-2021.17 35 2016-2021.17 36.17 37 2019-2021.18 38 2021.18 39 2021.18 40 2019-2021.19 41 21/.19 42.19 43.20 44 2019-2021 RTF.21 45 HVLP.21 46 2021.21 47 2021.22 48 2020.22 49.22 50.22 51.22 52.23 53.23 54 2013-2021.24 55 2014-2022 11.24 56.24 57.24 58 2021H1.25 59 2019-2022.25 60.25 61.25 62 2018-2022H1.26 63.26 64.26 65.27 66 2017-2019.27 67/.27 68.28 301217 2009 1210 6 69 2023 1 19.29 301217 2009 1210 7 2010 2022 1 2013 2018 TG 6 RTF 2020 5G HVLP1 1 2 72.38%2.62%1 0.5%301217 2009 1210 8 3 2022 9 30 WIND 22Q3 2021 40.82 65.92%2022Q1-3 27.60 10.14%2.28 19.69%2021 2022 PCB 21 4 2018-2022Q3 WIND 2022H1 57%34%8%2021 2022H1 21.2%13.1%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 YOY-YOY-301217 2009 1210 9 5 2022H1 6 2018-2022H1 WIND WIND 2019 2022 3.11%2021 0.02 0.09 0.19 0.16 7 2017-2022Q3 8 2021/WIND WIND PCB 57.33%34.43%8.24%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1PCB 0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70销售费用 管理费用 研发费用 财务费用 301217 2009 1210 10 9 10 WIND WIND 11 12 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 01020304050607080902018 2019 2020 2021H1 0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021H1 301217 2009 1210 11 CCL PCB 13 14 PCB 2021 PCB 32%24%15%10%PCB PCB 43.59%40%15 16 2021 PCB,32%,24%,15%,10%,10%,4%,4%,2%301217 2009 1210 12 17 PCB 18 PCB IC HDI RTF HVLP 19 5G IDC 1 PCB 5G PCB 2014 574 2021 809 5.0%CAGR PCB 262 442 7.8%CAGR,43.59%,22.04%,6.09%,2.28%,2.18%,2.22%,1.96%,19.64%,40%,27%,23%,10%301217 2009 1210 13 20 2014-2021 PCB PCB PCB 2021 PCB 38.6 PCB 47.6%PCB HDI PCB 21 PCB 22 PCB 2 5G PCB-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01002003004005006007008009002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PCB PCB,38.6%HDI,14.7%,17.6%,17.5%,11.6%,47.6%HDI,16.6%,5.3%,15.0%,15.5%301217 2009 1210 14 23 24(HTE/RTF/HVLP)EMC PCB 1GHz HVLP2 HVLP3 Rz 1.5 m 25 Rz m JIS ISO STD 8 5 10.2 RTF1 3.5 2.5 4.4 3.1 RTF2 2.5 3.1 VLP 4.2 2.0 5.1 2.5 HVLP1 2.0 1.5 2.5 1.9 HVLP2 1.5 1.0 1.9 1.25 HVLP3 1.0 1.25 HVLP X6 Very Low Loss FD HTE HVLP HTE 1216%RTF HVLP RTF 48%812%26 27-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.105.0 10.0 12.5 15.0 20.0信号损耗(dB/cm)频率(GHz)HVLP RTF HTE-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.105.0 10.0 12.5 15.0 20.0信号损耗(dB/cm)频率(GHz)HVLP RTF HTE 301217 2009 1210 15 5G PCB 5G 4G 1Gbps 20Gbps PCB PCB 28 4G 5G RF 5G 2022 9 5G 222 79.5 2025 5G 2020 5 26 364 29 2019-2022Q3 5G 5G 2021 32.44%3307 3229 54.4%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022Q35G 5G 301217 2009 1210 16 30 2017-2021 31 2017-2021 2022 2022 IDC 2021 IDC 679.3 9.79%2022 2 17 8 10 IDC 32 2017-2021 33 2017-2021 IDC 5G PCB 2021 250.9 15.9%391.1 28.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05001000150020002500300035002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY-YOY-8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%01002003004005006007008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 26%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%020040060080010001200140016002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 301217 2009 1210 17 34 2016-2021 35 2016-2021 3 25 200 CAGR10.4%22 23-25 5%/7%/9%22-25 52.5/55.2/59.0/64.3 22 21 22-25 2.4/2.4/2.5/2.5/5G 22-25 30%/25%/20%/20%22-25 2.8/3.5/4.2/5.0 7/25 195.7 22-25 CAGR 10.4%36 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 53.1 52.5 55.2 59.0 64.3 yoy-1.00%5.00%7.00%9.00%2.1 2.8 3.5 4.2 5.0 yoy 30%25%20%20%55.2 55.3 58.6 63.2 69.3 yoy/2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 HVLP 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0()143.3 126.1 132.4 147.6 160.9 HVLP 14.9 19.4 24.2 29.1 34.9 158.2 145.5 156.6 176.6 195.7 yoy-8.04%7.66%12.78%10.81%GGII 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY-YOY-0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%020040060080010001200140016002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 301217 2009 1210 18 1 2021 40.2 19.1%2021 1.28 69.6%2021 CR3 5 10 43%54%75%4%-7%37 2019-2021 38 2021 CCF A CCF A 2021 7%42%41%RTF 9.6%VLP+HVLP 7000 32.9%100 0.5%39 2021 0510152025303540452019 2020 2021,21%,15%,7%,6%,5%,5%,4%,4%,4%,4%,25%42%41%9%7%1%301217 2009 1210 19 40 2019-2021/2019 2020 2021 RTF VLP+HVLP RTF VLP+HVLP RTF VLP+HVLP 5500 5200 7500 5600 8000 7000 3300 1200 4000 1400 4200 1400 1500 1000 4000 1200 7200 1800 JX-1000-2000-1500-1200 1000 1600 1200 4000 1250 5500 300 100 500 100 500 100 6000 1800 7000 1800 9500 1800 12000 300 16000 360(VLP)17000 400(VLP)1300 0 1800 0 4200 100 800 0 1200 0 1600-3600 0 5040 50 5400 100 300 500 300 500 200 300 35600 12700 48540 17010 56050 21300 2 RTF2 40%HVLP 41 21/42 RTF1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%RTF1 RTF2 RTF3 HVLP1 HVLP2 HVLP3 HVLP4 VLP,4%RTF1,33%RTF2,40%RTF3,3%HVLP1,10%HVLP2,8%HVLP3,2%HVLP4,1%301217 2009 1210 20 2018 FSP501 Rz FR-4 1.2 kg/cm 2019 CF-T4X-SV 2019 12 CuTAP 250 43 5G PCB 1 HVLP RTF 2021 5400 RTF 9.6%RTF 63%HVLP HVLP 301217 2009 1210 21 44 2019-2021 RTF 45 HVLP RTF HVLP 2021 5 10000/1200/HVLP 2500/RTF 22 10 2021 RTF 400t/600t/HVLP 40 80t/HVLP HVLP 5G HVLP)2.72 HVLP)1500t/2023 12 HVLP 8000 HVLP 2021 2 2022 7-HVLP PCB 2 2021H1 26.46%18.59%11.31%8.49%8.26%2021 15.31%2020 CCL CCL CCL 46 2021 26.46%18.59%11.31%8.49%8.26%12.54%12.25%11.65%10.76%8.07%9.82%8.56%6.10%5.36%5.27%2021H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050010001500200025003000350040002019年 2020年 2021 年RTF RTF 301217 2009 1210 22 47 2021 48 2020 3 88%114%2022 1 2 49 50 51 2021 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E 1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.5 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2 1.00 2.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.50,34.35%,15.31%,7.80%,6.89%,5.45%,5.43%,5.20%,5.18%,4.75%,4.67%,4.97%,14%,12%,12%,10%,8%,8%,8%Rogers,7%,4%AGC,4%Isola,3%,2%,2%,6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%方邦股份 德福科技 逸豪新材 铜冠铜箔 中一科技0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%方邦股份 德福科技 逸豪新材 铜冠铜箔 中一科技 江铜铜箔 301217 2009 1210 23 52 53 LOMO 0.6V Li 3D LiMnO4 MnO2 Fe304 301217 2009 1210 24 1+2013 0.6GW 2021 21.1GW 55.4%2021 90%2022 11 917 66.8%54 2013-2021 55 2014-2022 11 SMM Marklines 2 2000 2020 20 6 CCFA 2021 6 m 18 25.6%63.8%56 57 Rishav Choudhury,Joseph Wild,Yuan Yang,Engineering current collectors for batteries with high specific energy.CCF A 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%05101520252013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GW 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005006007008009001000 0500001000001500002000002500002018 2019 2020 2021 m m m m 301217 2009 1210 25 1 2021H1 2022 73.5Gwh 193%16.2%25.0%2022 186 209%2022 14.26Gwh 78%58 2021H1 59 2019-2022 60 61,58.14%,10.72%,9.22%,4.14%,3.85%,13.93%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%02468101214162019 2020 2021 2022 Gwh-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0204060801001201401601802002019 2020 2021 2022-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%010203040506070802020 2021 2022(GWh)301217 2009 1210 26 2 2021 7-8 23.48%15.73%17.84%2022 77.22%62 2018-2022H1 63 22 H1 WIND 2024 2022 2 2 2022 IPO 1.5 23 23 4.5 24 64 2021 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E 1 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.5 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.5 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.00 2.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 3 2022 3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018年 2019年 2020 年 2021年H1 2022H1 m m 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2019 年 2020 年 2021年H1 m 7-m m 301217 2009 1210 27 65 10%10%40%1.3-1.4m 700mm 66 2017-2019 2017 18 Tex Technology Inc.8 2018 20 2 2019 Tex Technology Inc.20 67/IPO 2 IPO 1 1.5 3 1.5 6.17 3.07 4.99 4.06 5.36 8.21 4.31 9.15 5.92 8.35 301217 2009 1210 28 22-24 4.1 4.9 6.3 22-24 22-24 2.7 3.4 3.5 1.4 1.5 2.8 5G 22-24 2.2 2.5 2.9/22-24 3.5 3.5 3.5/+21 6/22-24 6/22-24 10%14%17%22-24 16%17%18%22-24 11%14%16%68 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 4082 3891 4719 6143 639 434 651 1003 16%11%14%16%2430 2173 2890 3098 2.7 2.7 3.4 3.5/6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0/2.8 2.2 2.5 2.9 17%10%14%17%421 217 405 527/1.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1308 1368 1462 2660 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.8/6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0/3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 17%16%17%18%228 219 249 479/1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 344 350 368 386-10-2-2-2-3%-1%-1%-1%301217 2009 1210 29 HVLP 2022-2024 38.9/47.2/61.4 2.9/4.3/6.9 EPS 0.35/0.52/0.83 23 30 xPE 15.7 69 2023 1 19 EPS PE 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 600110.SH 145.0 8.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 34.5 21.8 16.0 688388.SH 148.0 48.7 2.1 3.3 4.3 23.5 14.7 11.2 301150.SZ 71.0 69.9 4.2 6.4 9.6 16.6 10.9 7.2 600183.SH 372.0 16.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 24.2 17.3 13.8 688519.SH 56.0 23.7 0.2 0.5 1.4 109.2 44.0 15.4 1.5 2.3 3.4 41.6 21.7 12.7 301217.SZ 108.0 13.0 0.4 0.5 0.8 36.3 24.5 15.5 WIND WIND 301217 2009 1210 30 5G 5G 301217 2009 1210 31 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 249 3,285 3,013 3,238 4,082 3,891 4,719 6,143 99 97 118 154 3,443 3,456 4,068 5,139 671 572 694 903 20 19 25 31 43 3 4 5 6 6 7 10 357 391 458 574 35 39 38 43 0 0 0 0 79 78 80 98 116 166 260 322 65-1 5 18 1,535 4,514 4,547 5,196-14 11-2-2 0 0 0 0-3-10-5-6 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 1,677 2,347 3,053 3,000 0 0 0 0 39 329 129 229 22 30 20 10 115 103 94 84 439 333 509 806 68 68 66 68 2 13 3 3 1,899 2,847 3,342 3,381 1 1 1 1 3,434 7,361 7,889 8,577 440 345 511 808 879 891 969 947 72 51 76 121 0 177 230 167 368 294 435 687 115 242 193 248 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 368 294 435 687 2 2 3 3 NOPLAT 422 293 439 702 15 30 30 30 EPS()0.59 0.35 0.52 0.83 66 66 66 66 60 49 60 91 1,137 1,457 1,551 1,552 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 98 98 98 98 0 0 0 0 65.9%-4.7%21.3%30.2%123 100 100 100 EBIT 300.1%-31.9%49.7%60.1%221 198 198 198 412.5%-20.1%48.1%58.0%1,358 1,655 1,749 1,750 2,076 5,706 6,140 6,827 15.7%11.2%13.8%16.3%0 0 0 0 9.0%7.5%9.2%11.2%2,076 5,706 6,140 6,827 ROE 17.7%5.1%7.1%10.1%3,434 7,361 7,889 8,577 ROIC 15.5%4.8%7.0%10.2%39.6%22.5%22.2%20.4%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 56.2%20.2%20.1%17.7%184 801 347 537 1.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 582 446 646 969 1.0 2.8 2.6 3.0-93-33-67-117-354 151-138-240 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.7-27 319 4-8 48 58 48 47 76-81-98-67 11 19 19 15-75-1,104-703-302 33 39 38 36-56-1,102-703-302()0 0 0 0 0.59 0.35 0.52 0.83-19-2 0 0 0.22 0.97 0.42 0.65 97 3,339 84-10 2.50 6.88 7.41 8.24 165 12 79-22-66-27-20-20 P/E 22 37 25 16 0 0 0 0 P/B 4 2 2 2-2 3,354 25 32 EV/EBITDA 15 19 13 9 301217 2009 1210 32/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 301217 2009 1210 33 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 301217 2009 1210 34(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522