深度报告-20230120-华创证券-普门科技-688389.SH-深度研究报告_专精特新小巨人_乘风破浪会有时_23页_3mb.pdf

2009 1210 2023 01 20 688389 30 23.79 2008 2013 2022H1 359 27%20%2015 1 2 3 4 1 eCL8000 eCL9000 2 3 SYSMEX 22-24 9.82 12.85 16.73 26.2%30.8%30.2%2.47 3.25 4.27 30.1%31.3%31.5%22-24 EPS 0.59 0.77 1.01 2024 PE 23 2024 30 30 1 2 3 IVD 4 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()778 982 1,285 1,673(%)40.5%26.2%30.8%30.2%()190 247 325 427(%)32.2%30.1%31.3%31.5%()0.45 0.59 0.77 1.01()53 41 31 23()8 7 6 5 2023 1 19 S0360520110002 S0360520110004()42,220.00()42,220.00()100.44()100.44(%)22.51()3.18 12/23.79/12.39(12)-41%-23%-5%14%22/01 22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-192023-01-19 300 688389 2009 1210 1 2 3 SYSMEX 1 2 3 4 22-24 9.82 12.85 16.73 26.2%30.8%30.2%2.47 3.25 4.27 30.1%31.3%31.5%22-24 EPS 0.59 0.77 1.01 2024 PE 23 2024 30 30 688389 2009 1210 3.5.5.7.8.9.9.9.10.11.12.13.13 1.13 2.14 3.15.16 SYSMEX.17.18.19 688389 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.5 3.6 4 2022H1.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.9 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.10 16.10 17.11 18 2020.11 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.13 23.13 24 2021.14 25.14 26.14 27.15 28.16 29.17 30 SYSMEX.18 31.18 32.19 688389 2009 1210 5 2008 2019 2022 16000 1900 86 2016 1.75 2021 7.78 CAGR 34.8%2016 0.1 2021 1.9 CAGR 80.2%2016 0.23 2016-2021 CAGR 41.9%2017 44%2021 40%2022 23.8%25.2%1 2 Wind Wind 2022H1 359 27%20%2015 2013 2018 688389 2009 1210 6 3 4 2022H1 Wind Wind 2017 21.71%2022Q1-3 16.8%2017 8.13%2022Q1-3 5.04%2017 18.97%2022Q1-3 22.71%5 2008 2014 2013 2008 2008 2015 2016 2013 2008 2008 2011 28.98%21.9%50.88%688389 2009 1210 7 6 1 2021 2021-2026 2021 6 2 2021 9 2020 2021-2023 30%60%90%3 2022 4 2021 2022-2024 30%60%90%2008 2020 2021 2022 7 80%7 2020-2021 688389 2009 1210 8 10%2022H1 3.32%65%8 9 Wind Wind C 2013 10 2016-2021 CAGR 19%56%2022H1 78%57%688389 2009 1210 9 11 12 Wind Wind 2016 5.8%2021 34.4%2020 2021 200%OEM/ODM 13 14 Wind Wind Frost&Sullivan 2023 670 2018-2023 CAGR 19.1%2022 10 3 2021 6 688389 2009 1210 10 15 Frost&Sullivan 2008 2015 2022-16 2008/7/15 2015/12/7 2012/8/28 2010/2/8 Carnation-86 GZM-D CHX-630 JLT-MD500 460 10nm 640 10nm 415 10nm 640 10nm 442-465nm 616-640nm 450 10nm 630 10nm 3,000mW/cm2 1,800mW/cm2 770mW/cm2 100mW/cm2 0.5 688389 2009 1210 11 1%10%-*18 7.8 5.1 12.73 7.3 3.6 2 4.49 9.36 6 3.94 8.5 2018 2021 2021 VTE VTE 20 Medical Insight 2021 22.2 CAGR 14%2020 65%17 18 2020 Medical Insight 2023 1 20 6.38.210.813.115.017.219.622.20%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.05.010.015.020.025.02014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E我国光电医美设备市场规 模（亿 元）增速（右轴）688389 2009 1210 12 2020 2021 QNd YAG LED 5 LC-580 2022 8 2022 7-8 2016-2020 CAGR 48.6%Frost&Sulliivan 23 20 2020 Ambu 57.3%19.1%2020 19 20 Frost&Sulliivan Frost&Sulliivan 2022 7 80%688389 2009 1210 13 2021 37%33%21 1 2021 327.9 2025 632.6 CAGR 17.9%22 23 2021 76%24%688389 2009 1210 14 24 2021 25-2022 2 26(ALP)(HRP)-688389 2009 1210 15 3 eCL8000 2017 7 eCL8000 eCL8000 POCT 9 eCL8000 2021 37%50%27 Roche eCL8000 Cobas e411 MGALUMI900 CL-900i 30 30 40 50 10 18 9 15 0.01ng/mL 0.02ng/mL 0.13ng/mL 0.02ng/mL PCT/-CGRP-CGRP 20ng/mL 50ng/mL-CGRP 20 g/mL-CGRP 20 g/mL 10ng/ml;30ng/ml;-CGRP 10 g/ml;-CGRP 10 g/ml 20 ng/ml PCT 1 ng/ml 10 ng/mL 30 ng/mL-CGRP 10 g/mL-CGRP 10 g/mL HAMA 10%20 mg/mL 300 g/mL 7mg/mL 15ng/mL 20mg/mL 2000IU/mL HAMA 289.44ng/mL 250 g/mL 9mg/mL 15mg/mL 30ng/ml 150IU/mL HAMA 10%3 mg/mL 50 g/mL 0.5mg/mL 10mg/mL 15%1500IU/mL 90%-110%90%-110%2-8 4 2-8 12 2-8 4 2-8 4 28 28 14 28 688389 2009 1210 16 18 18 15 eCL9000 2022 2 eCL9000 eCL9000 TIP 10 eCL9000 300/4 1200/eCL9000 2000/AI2000 2022 12 2 85 14 120 2021 9 114 45.72%2017 1.144 2045 1.198 Bio-Rad TOSOH 2013 2021 2022 H100 28 Bio-Rad TOSOH ARKRAY H9 Variant Variant Turbo G8 HA-8180 50/20/60/75/688389 2009 1210 17 CV CV1.2%CV 3.0%CV 1.0%/3.0%-18.0%3.5%-19.0%3-20%110 100 90 290 100 5 L 5 L 3 L 14 L HPLC 2020 ODM 2022Q1 2022 SYSMEX C CRP A SAA CRP 2013 SYSMEX 29 Orion Boditech PA-990 Quik Read go icharoma-50 Aristo 180/30/80/150/CV CV 5%CV 10%CV 5%0.5-370mg/L 5.0-200mg/L 2.5-300mg/L 0.9-380mg/L 688389 2009 1210 18 SYSMEX 2016 1 SYSMEX 2016-2018 SYSMEX PA-600 PA-900 PA-990 CRP 2019-2023 PA-800 SAA SYSMEX SYSMEX SYSMEX SYSMEX 2016 41.97%2021 18.12%30 SYSMEX 1 IVD 2022-2024 32%35%34%2 2022-2024 7%13%11%31 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7.78 9.82 12.85 16.73 yoy 40%26.2%30.8%30.2%62%61%62%62%5.92 7.83 10.60 14.23 yoy 35%32%35%34%61%60%61%62%4.47 5.72 7.84 10.66 yoy 119%28%37%36%67%67%69%69%1.46 2.11 2.77 3.57 yoy-21%45%31%29%43%40%40%40%688389 2009 1210 19 1.80 1.93 2.19 2.44 yoy 14%7%13%11%68%67%68%68%1.73 1.84 2.06 2.27 yoy 13%6%12%10%70%68%70%70%0.07 0.10 0.13 0.17 yoy 51%38%35%35%38%38%40%40%0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 yoy-34%5%5%5%-99%10%10%10%Wind 22-24 9.82 12.85 16.73 26.2%30.8%30.2%2.47 3.25 4.27 30.1%31.3%31.5%22-24 EPS 0.59 0.77 1.01 2024 PE 23 2024 30 30 32 2022E 2023E 2024E 300760.SZ 4140 42 35 29 300832.SZ 448 36 28 22 603658.SH 397 32 25 20 688626.SH 56 33 26 21 PE 36 29 23 Wind 2023 1 19 1 2 3 IVD 4 688389 2009 1210 20 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 809 704 726 877 778 982 1,285 1,673 0 0 0 0 299 375 484 628 51 39 48 71 7 13 13 17 15 10 14 20 119 162 193 243 113 120 158 214 36 49 51 67 0 0 0 0 156 197 245 313 22 35 45 57-9-45-15-18 1,010 908 991 1,239-2-2-2-2 0 0 0 0-3-3-3-3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 207 542 730 847 3 3 3 3 87 80 88 100 35 35 35 35 96 91 86 81 203 264 347 456 74 73 76 75 0 0 0 0 464 786 980 1,103 0 0 0 0 1,474 1,694 1,971 2,342 203 264 347 456 0 0 0 0 13 17 22 29 0 0 0 0 190 247 325 427 79 104 133 169 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 190 247 325 427 22 27 36 46 NOPLAT 182 206 311 411 48 48 48 48 EPS()0.45 0.59 0.77 1.01 4 4 4 4 50 68 80 106 203 251 301 373 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40.5%26.2%30.8%30.2%13 13 13 13 EBIT 33.3%13.2%51.3%32.1%13 13 13 13 32.2%30.1%31.3%31.5%216 264 314 386 1,255 1,428 1,655 1,954 61.6%61.8%62.4%62.4%3 2 2 2 24.4%25.2%25.3%25.5%1,258 1,430 1,657 1,956 ROE 15.1%17.3%19.6%21.9%1,474 1,694 1,971 2,342 ROIC 14.9%14.7%19.2%21.4%14.7%15.6%15.9%16.5%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1.3%1.1%1.0%0.8%182 256 340 431 5.0 3.6 3.3 3.3 200 231 367 483 4.4 3.1 2.8 2.7-40-8-38-55-43 20-10-26 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 52 25 29 36 15 17 12 13 13-12-8-7 82 88 88 87-130-351-250-196 112 112 104 107-104-350-249-196()0 0 0 0 0.45 0.59 0.77 1.01-26-1-1 0 0.43 0.61 0.81 1.02-83-10-68-84 2.97 3.38 3.92 4.63 1 0 0 0-75-98-128-169 P/E 53 41 31 23 1 1 1 1 P/B 8 7 6 5-10 87 59 84 EV/EBITDA 70 60 38 29 688389 2009 1210 21 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 688389 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 688389 2009 1210 23(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522