深度报告-20230109-东方证券-新巨丰-301296.SZ-国产替代正当时_内资无菌纸基包装龙头优势凸显_26页_1mb.pdf

301296.SZ|2019-2021 15%33%2021 51%2021 27%20%2016+2023 205 2021 95%2022-2024 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.9%34.9%11.1%EPS 0.38 0.51 0.57+DCF DCF 18.02 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()1,014 1,242 1,630 1,863 2,078(%)8.5%22.4%31.3%14.3%11.6%()230 211 215 289 322(%)43.9%-8.3%1.9%34.9%11.1%()169 157 160 216 240(%)46.4%-7.0%1.9%34.9%11.1%0.40 0.37 0.38 0.51 0.57(%)34.8%27.3%24.4%26.3%26.1%(%)16.7%12.7%9.8%11.6%11.5%(%)18.0%14.8%12.8%14.6%14.1%41.3 44.4 43.6 32.3 29.1 7.1 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.8.2023 01 09 16.63 18.02 52/22.07/13.96/A 42,000/5,915 A 6,985/2023 01 09 1 1 3 12 7.64 1.96 16.87 3.99 1.59 11.4 300 3.65 0.37 5.47-16.78 021-63325888*6069 S0860517020001 BSW124 021-63325888*6088 S0860520080001 BRW772 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.8 2.9 2.1.10 10 12 12 2.2.13 13 14 3.16 3.1.16“+”“”16+18 3.2.18 3.3.20.21.21.22.22 3 1.5 2.5 3 CAGR 15%.6 4 CAGR 33%.6 5 90%2021.6 6 92%2021.6 7 70%12%4%2%2021.6 8 90%.6 9 91%2021.7 10 42%33%19%2021.7 11.7 12.7 13.8 14.8 15 2022 9.8 16.9 17 2021 34%29%.10 18 2021 68%.11 19 2021 50%20%.11 20.12 21 2020 22%61%11%.13 22 2021 20%.13 23.13 24 2019 54%.14 25 SIG.16 26.16 27.16 28 2020 20%17 4 29 2020 40%.17 30.18 31.18 32 2022.19 33.19 34 2022 LLDPE:CFR.19 35 2022 A00.19 36 2023 205 2021 95%.20 1 2023-2025 2021 40%55%80%.9 2.11 3 2031 260.12 4.14 5.15 6.20 7 DCF 18.02.22 5 1 1.1 2007 2022 2010 2015 20%2019 5%2021 12.42 1 2 CAGR 15%33%2021 6 12.42 1.57 22.4%-7%2022 19 11.22 1.22 30%4%2021 51%39%10%1%2021 64%28%7%3 CAGR 15%4 CAGR 33%5 90%2021 6 92%2021 2021 70%2021 70%12%4%2%2021 2%90%7 70%12%4%2%2021 8 90%7 2021 90%2021 91%2021 2021 42%33%19%9 91%2021 10 42%33%19%2021 2021 27%20%17%14%2021 34%19%19%11 12 8 2021 10.7%2021 12.7%4pct 13 14 1.2 2022 12.9%11.3%24.2%4.1%8.7%15 2022 9 9 2021 2023-2025 40%55%80%1 2023-2025 2021 40%55%80%2021FY 2023E 2024E 2025E 1242 1739 1925 2236 2021FY-40%55%80%2/16 10 2.1 2021 3032 2020 93%2021 2819 2021 968 807 63%17 2021 34%29%UHT 1 2 UHT 11 2021 68%2021 20%UHT 18 2021 68%19 2021 50%20%Euromonitor 2 4 27 4 21 UHT 3 UHT 36 12 2021 20kg 60kg 300kg 2%2021 182 260 2031 20 3 2031 260 2021 2031E kg/20 22.5 25 30 CAGR10 4%1%2%4%1100 1408 1564 1877/0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 182 234 260 312 Euromonitor 2020 22%61%11%13 2021 20%21 2020 22%61%11%22 2021 20%Euromonitor 2.2 23 Tetra Pak 14 2019 54%2019 54%95%2019 SIG 11.5%11.3%9.2%2016 0.3pct 4.2pct 24 2019 54%Tetra Pak 4 15 Tetra Pak 2014 1251000ml A3/15000/2021 40000/E3/SIG 18000/7500/20000/5 SIG E3/SIG NEO ABM 125N PBA16000 2021 2021 2013 2015 1000ml 500ml 750ml 1000ml 125ml 200ml 250ml 125-1000ml 40000/12000-18000/7500/6000-20000/2016 2003 95%2016 2021 SIG 0.32/0.350.4/0.14/0.16/0.20/0.16/SIG 16 25 SIG SIG 3 3.1+0.17/0.16/2021 0.14/0.17/18%2021 19%27%26 27 17 2020 20%40%2022 7 28 2020 20%29 2020 40%+2021 51%2021 34%19%19%18+30+31 3.2 19 1 1 2022 2 2022 2022 3 2022 2022 2021 32 2022 33 2022E 2023E 2024E 90 300 520 1215 1157 1457 1977 3132 8%21%26%39%5%10%34 2022 LLDPE:CFR 35 2022 A00 20 Wind Wind 3.3 2023 205 2021 95%5 50 50 2023 100 2 6 50 7000 50 2022 50 20000 50 2023 2 7000-2023 2022 50 25 36 2023 205 2021 95%21 2022-2024 1)2022-2024 3.4%3.9%3.8%16.5%13.9%8.8%48.3%10.1%9.4%42.9%34.3%29.7%2)2021 2022-2024 24.4%26.3%26.1%3)10.6%2022-2024 4.68%4.67%4.64%4)2022-2024 25.4%2021 2 0 2 0 A 2 0 2 1 A 2022E 2023E 2024E 604.0 635.9 740.9 843.8 917.7 14.8%5.3%16.5%13.9%8.8%40.4%34.1%32.1%34.1%34.1%328.6 480.8 713.2 785.1 858.8-3.2%46.3%48.3%10.1%9.4%25.8%19.4%17.4%19.4%19.4%71.4 118.4 169.2 227.2 294.8 10.8%65.9%42.9%34.3%29.7%24.5%19.5%17.5%19.5%19.5%10.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 106.4%-35.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%67.0%80.7%80.7%80.7%80.7%1,014.4 1,241.8 1,630.0 1,862.7 2,078.0 8.5%22.4%31.3%14.3%11.6%34.8%27.3%24.4%26.3%26.1%22 2022-2024 16.3 18.6 20.8 31.3%14.3%11.6%1.6 2.2 2.4 1.9%34.9%11.1%EPS 0.38 0.51 0.57+DCF DCF 18.02 7 DCF 18.02 Wind 2017-2021 90.5%88.8%91.3%88.2%89.5%75.2%74.0%72.7%70.0%69.9%12 25.00%18.02 1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%3.00%4.73%19.84 24.10 33.28 67.63-152.19 2.83%5.23%18.03 21.09 26.90 42.16 190.27 0.54185.73%16.60 18.89 22.86 31.41 63.41 0.58536.23%15.45 17.21 20.07 25.48 39.70 9.53%6.73%14.49 15.88 18.02 21.71 29.68 0.00%7.23%13.69 14.81 16.45 19.11 24.16 6.75%7.73%13.01 13.92 15.21 17.20 20.65 0.61%8.23%12.42 13.17 14.21 15.74 18.23 4.30%8.73%11.90 12.53 13.38 14.59 16.45 WACC 6.73%WACC(%)23 24:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 252 347 712 779 1,283 1,014 1,242 1,630 1,863 2,078 252 410 539 616 687 661 903 1,233 1,373 1,535 7 9 12 14 16 8 7 9 11 12 132 186 253 282 316 51 59 76 87 97 197 176 176 177 177 68 74 97 111 124 841 1,128 1,693 1,867 2,478(4)(1)(3)(5)(8)0 0 0 0 0 10(2)14 8 8 475 486 294 442 142 2 4 4 4 4 70 46 40 0 5(0)0 2 2 1 38 38 37 36 36 8 5 5 5 5 29 31 6 6 6 230 211 215 289 322 613 600 376 484 189 0 0 0 0 0 1,453 1,728 2,069 2,351 2,666 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 4 228 211 215 289 322 273 416 568 632 707 59 54 55 74 82 118 93 94 95 96 169 157 160 216 240 395 513 666 732 807 0 0 0 0 0 40 36 36 36 36 169 157 160 216 240 0 0 0 0 0 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.51 0.57 32 36 1 1 1 72 71 36 36 36 467 584 702 768 844 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 357 357 420 420 420 8.5%22.4%31.3%14.3%11.6%251 251 251 251 251 43.9%-8.3%1.9%34.9%11.1%379 536 696 912 1,152 46.4%-7.0%1.9%34.9%11.1%0 0 0 0 0 987 1,144 1,367 1,583 1,823 34.8%27.3%24.4%26.3%26.1%1,453 1,728 2,069 2,351 2,666 16.7%12.7%9.8%11.6%11.5%ROE 18.0%14.8%12.8%14.6%14.1%ROIC 16.9%14.1%12.1%13.9%13.4%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 169 157 160 216 240 32.1%33.8%33.9%32.7%31.6%1 202 261 419 300 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%(4)(1)(3)(5)(8)2.13 2.20 2.54 2.55 3.07 0(0)(2)(2)(1)1.77 1.84 2.16 2.16 2.67 44(72)(60)(51)(38)34(205)(1)4 3 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 245 80 355 582 496 4.3 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.1(57)(665)(62)(527)(5)0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0 0 0 0 0(21)644 6 6 6 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.51 0.57(79)(21)(56)(521)1 0.69 0.22 0.85 1.38 1.18(6)(4)0 0 0 2.35 2.72 3.25 3.77 4.34 0 0 63 0 0(96)18 3 5 8 41.3 44.4 43.6 32.3 29.1(102)14 66 5 8 7.1 6.1 5.1 4.4 3.8(1)(0)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 23.5 13.0 11.3 7.6 8.7 63 73 366 66 504 EV/EBIT 23.6 25.5 25.3 18.8 17.0 25 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer