深度报告-20230111-国海证券-负极碳包覆行业深度报告_下游行业高景气_发展空间广阔_36页_1mb.pdf

()()S0350521120006 S()2023 1 11 2*2022-06-13 2025*2022-06-04*2022-04-06*2022-03-30*2022-02-23 300 2023/01/10 1M 3M 12M-1.8%-8.0%-21.3%300 3.0%-0.1%-21.6%-0.30-0.25-0.20-0.15-0.10-0.050.000.050.10 300 3 2022 9 SEI+8%11%20%1-30%10%20%+2022 17 2025 40 CAGR 32%70%+17%19.4 2021 6.9 2023 12.5 2021 36.2%2023 37%2021 2023 4 2021 6.4 2021 25 2022 17%P20 2022+2022-2025 CAGR 32%2021 5+5 1.1 1.2 1.3 10%20%1.4 2025 40 2022-2025 CAGR 32%61.1 SEI 1 2 SEI,:,+1 2,SEM SEM 71.2+,犇 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2,81.2 91.3 10%20%8%11%20%1-30%5%-11%8%6%-15%11%20%1-30%13%10%5%1 2019 10%2019 8 3 2 20156%-8%2015 3 2015 15%2015 47 8 4 2018 9.1%2018 2 37 5 2011 9.1%CN102169988B-2011 6 2009 11%2009 14 4 7 2008 5%2008 8 2008 8%2008 11 32 11/2020/2017-2019 6 2019 12.97%5.77 2020/2020 9.61%9.61%4.27 2016 2017 4.96%3.00 2019 2020 3.74%2.81-4.18 101.3 10%20%111.3 10%20%-+121.3 10%20%CVD CVD/2 10nm SiO2 CVD CVD SEI SEI SiO+CVD 131.4 2025 40 2022-2025 C A G R 32%EVTank GGII 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh 295 562 824 1110 1455 1859yoy 91%47%35%31%28%GWh 158 371 566 763 992 1270yoy 135%53%35%30%28%GWh 29 66 119 196 304 425 yoy 133%80%65%55%40%GWh 108 125 139 150 157 162 yoy 16%11%8%5%3%35 73 107 144 189 242 1.6%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.5%5.0%0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 4.7 12.1 34.8 71.9 105.4 141.7 184.4 229.6 20%20%20%20%20%20%11%11%11%11%11%11%0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.4 3.8 7.9 11.6 15.6 20.3 25.3 3.9 8.1 11.9 16.1 21.2 27.7/1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.45 5.7 11.8 17.3 23.4 30.8 40.1 2025 1859GWh GWh 1300 242 12 230 20%11%2025 27.7 2021 1.45/2025 40 2022 17.3 2022-2025CAGR 32%14 2.1 2.2 2.3 152.1%150 35.0 49.9 0.5 0.08 39.0 1 0.1 43.0 53.0 1 0.1 180 50.0 62.0 0.5 0.08 49.0 1 0.1 50.0 60.0 1 0.1 200 52.0 63.0 0.5 0.08 53.0 1 0.1 57.0 67.0 250 63.1 73.9 0.5 0.08 68.0 1 0.1 70.0 80.0 280 74.0 80.0 0.5 0.08 75.0 1 0.1 75.0 1 0.1 80.0 27 0.03 162.1 5 69 3 59 0 0 0 0 4 5 2 0 1 16 1 16 0 6 0 6 0 4 0 4 CVD 2020.11.24 CN 112592734 A 2022.02.22 CN 113097489 A 2020.08.14 CN 111925818 A 172.1 1 2 3 XD-260 260 XD-260;ZL202120847263.1 ZL202120808852.9AS-9 280 AS-9 ZL202120861467.0 ZL202120810875.3AS-G 250 AS-G ZL202120808814.3 ZL202120810902.7X-7 280 X-7 ZL201821848917.7 ZL201821925517.1 ZL201821934532.2 ZL202010820015.8T-1 280 T-1 ZL201821925511.4 ZL201821925519.0 ZL201821927520.7 ZL202010820015.8 182.1 2014.03.21 CN 203816620 U 2014.03.24 CN 203816588 U 2014.03.20 CN 203819802 U 2014.03.20 CN 203816608 U 2014.03.24 CN 203820710 U 2014.03.21 CN 203816539 U 2022.03.22 CN 216954111 U 2021.08.23 CN 215612321 U 2022.03.22 CN 216972437 U 2022.03.31 CN 216808700 U 2022.03.31 CN 216897831 U 2021.08.23 CN 215586772 U 2022.03.31 CN 217248330 U 2022.03.22 CN 216964771 U 2022.03.31 CN 217049977 U 2022.03.31 CN 216862744 U+1 2 3 2022 12 192.2 2021 3432.67/70%+1 0.6 0.4 2021 2020 2019 13,032.15 73.23%7,672.31 71.14%6,373.88 80.32%654.64 3.68%-617.53 3.47%346.3 3.21%377.9 4.76%2,169.09 12.19%1,737.06 16.11%1,184.10 14.92%1,322.45 7.43%1,028.70 9.54%-17,795.86 100.00%10,784.36 100.00%7,935.88 100.00%202.2 17%17%3 2021 14541/6713 5278 30%300 539 60%10%38%14%17%2021 2021 14541.41 14541.41 0.00%5732.49 5848.86 2.03%287.96 0.00-100.00%271.64 190.15-30.00%954.13 589.15-38.25%581.71 281.71-51.57%6713.48 7631.54 13.67%5278.47 6196.53 17.39%/212.3 19.4 2021 6.9 2023 12.5 2.5/1.0/0.5 2020 27%-39%2021 36.2%2023 37%2021 2023 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021 2022 2023 55,000 25,000 28,750 46,250 36.2%32.8%37.0%5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 7.2%5.7%4.0%10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 14.5%11.4%8.0%25,000 5,000 10,000 20,000 7.2%11.4%16.0%13,000 3,000 3,000 6,750 4.3%3.4%5.4%5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 7.2%5.7%4.0%1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1.4%1.1%0.8%25,000 10,000 20,000 25,000 14.5%22.8%20.0%5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 7.2%5.7%4.0%/50,000 0 0 1,000 0.0%0.0%0.8%194,000 69,000 87,750 125,000 100.0%100.0%100.0%2021-2023 22 3.1 PAN 3.2+3.3 2021 25 3.4 233.1 90%PAN 90%PAN 10 1/5 1/2 PAN PAN PAN PAN GPa%GPa k PAN 2.5-7 0.6-2.5 250-400 50%-1.1 10-6 1.5-3.5 0.3-1.9 200-800 70%-1.5 10-6 243.2 350 1200 PAN PAN PAN PAN 1800 20003000 253.2()1800 3702000 263.2+/135.0 58.09%/27.4 11.79%/13.0 5.58%/57.1 24.55%/767.6%76.76%Wind/4.2 20.23%/2.8 13.30%/13.9 66.47%/48.8%70.05%1 55kw 2 225kw 1 95kw 180kw 1 380kw 100 27 20 135 58%6000 36 13/27.4/12%10 57.1/25%PAN 1000/77%70%273.3 Kureha Toray 2022/20 500/60 20 200-20 283.3 2021 25/kg)2600 7%182 10000 18.20 300 9%27 15000 4.05 4100 5%205 200 0.41 6500 5%325 200 0.65 3600 5%180 200 0.36 2100 5%105 200 0.21 8500 2%128 400 0.51 2000 2%30 400 0.12 4200 3%126 200 0.25 33900 1308 24.76 2021 2021 62,379 2020 48,851+27.7%LED 2021 6.4 2021 25 10000 15000/kg 7%/9%18.2/4.1 0.5/0.1 1.6/0.3 293.4 2021 48.67 1%2020 5000 6677 2022 XD-800 XD-800 ZL201821925450.1 ZL201821941382.8 ZL201821934505.5 ZL201922005263.2 XD-800 173.26 138.13 303.4 50%60%2022 XD270 XD-800 XD-800 XD-800 PAN T800 PAN 31 32 17%P20+2022-2025 CAGR 32%2021 5+重 点公司代 码 股 票名称2023/1/10 EPS PE投 资评级股价 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E301349.SZ 信德新材 113.96 2.70 2.67 4.60 46.15 42.68 24.77 买入资料来源：Wind 资讯，国海证券研究所 Wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 491.98 1053 1633 1761%80.88 114 55 8 137.68 181 313 385(%)59.88 32 73 23()2.7 2.67 4.6 5.67ROE(%)28 6 9 10P/E 0 46.15 24.77 20.10 P/B 0 2.77 2.51 2.25P/S 0 7.95 5.13 4.76EV/EBITDA 0.35 27.78 16.56 13.12 2023/1/10 33 34,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%4 35 R3/28F 518041 0755 83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597