20230120-东方证券-特步国际-01368.HK-22Q4业绩承压_期待2023年业绩表现_5页_354kb.pdf

01368.HK|22Q4 22Q4 7 2022 5.5 22Q4 1 10/11/12/10/11 2/3 2 22Q4 27-28 3 2022 2023 30-40 22Q4 22Q4 7/5.5 2023 1 10 20%7-7.5 Q4 2023 20%6 5 2025 200 2022-2024 0.35 0.44 0.55 0.43 0.51 0.65 2023 29 PE 14.67 1=1.15 2020 A 202 1 A 202 2 E 20 2 3 E 20 2 4 E()8,172 10,013 12,408 14,564 16,932(%)-0.1%22.5%23.9%17.4%16.3%()918 1,396 1,430 1,832 2,243(%)-25.6%52.1%2.4%28.1%22.4%()513 908 926 1,172 1,439(%)-29.5%77.1%1.9%26.6%22.8%0.19 0.34 0.35 0.44 0.55(%)39.1%41.7%40.8%41.1%41.7%(%)6.3%9.1%7.5%8.0%8.5%(%)7.1%11.5%10.9%12.9%14.5%44.2 25.0 24.5 19.3 15.8 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3.2023 01 17 10.02 14.67 52/14.8/6.79/H 263,672/263,672 H 26,420/2023 01 20 1 1 3 12 6.71 3.62 30.13-21.26 5.56-7.32 0.25-10.36 1.15 10.94 29.88-10.9 021-63325888*6076 S0860511010001 021-63325888*6107 S0860521070006 BSW044 Q3 Q4 2022-10-19 2022-08-25 2022-07-17 22Q4 2023 22Q4 2023 2 2022-2024 0.35 0.44 0.55 0.43 0.51 0.65 2023 29 PE 14.67 1=1.15 1 2023 1 17 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2020 HK EQUITY 98.29 2.81 2.79 3.53 4.25 35 35 28 23 2313 HK EQUITY 60.25 1.58 1.76 2.20 2.71 38 34 27 22 603908.SH 62.34 1.18 2.33 3.35 4.45 53 27 19 14 ON RUNNING ONON US Equity 20.5(0.6)0.3 0.3 0.5-35 77 59 39 NIKE NKE US EQUITY 128.6 3.8 3.2 4.0 4.7 33 41 33 27 ADIDAS ADS GR EQUITY 147.4 7.5 2.2 4.6 7.1 20 68 32 21 LULULEMON LULU US EQUITY 315.0 7.8 9.9 11.5 13.4 40 32 27 24 42 29 23 wind Bloomberg EPS wind EPS wind ON Running Bloomberg 22Q4 2023 3:2 0 2 0 A 2 0 2 1 A 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E:2 0 2 0 A 2 0 2 1 A 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 3,909 3,963 6,204 7,282 8,466 8,172 10,013 12,408 14,564 16,932 975 1,497 1,615 2,019 2,166-4,974-5,835-7,347-8,579-9,878 2,760 3,137 3,756 4,335 5,071 3,198 4,178 5,061 5,986 7,054 899 1,443 1,489 1,952 2,049-1,537-1,891-2,482-2,767-3,200 484 392 684 579 889-1,050-1,189-1,489-1,733-1,998 9,027 10,432 13,748 16,167 18,641 307 299 340 347 387 796 1,119 1,542 2,031 2,590 918 1,396 1,430 1,832 2,243 429 668 668 668 668-140-63-44-89-114 709 671 661 651 641-17-46-46-46-46 787 756 756 756 756 762 1,287 1,339 1,696 2,083 822 969 968 990 992-257-397-414-524-643 3,544 4,183 4,596 5,097 5,647()505 889 926 1,172 1,439 12,572 14,615 18,345 21,264 24,288()513 908 926 1,172 1,439 642 405 3,068 4,579 6,155-8-19 0 0 0 1,479 2,352 2,395 3,177 3,301 36 71 71 71 71 75 98 98 98 98 541 961 997 1,244 1,511 86 123 123 123 123()549 980 997 1,244 1,511 1,053 1,074 1,563 1,531 2,065()-8-19 0 0 0 3,334 4,053 7,248 9,509 11,742 0.19 0.34 0.35 0.44 0.55 237 253 253 253 253 1,516 1,375 1,375 1,375 1,375 186 952 952 952 952 2 0 2 0 A 2 0 2 1 A 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 1,939 2,580 2,580 2,580 2,580 5,273 6,633 9,828 12,089 14,322-0.1%22.5%23.9%17.4%16.3%22 23 23 23 23-25.6%52.1%2.4%28.1%22.4%7,201 7,906 8,441 9,098 9,889-29.5%77.1%1.9%26.6%22.8%75 53 53 53 53 7,299 7,982 8,517 9,174 9,966 39.1%41.7%40.8%41.1%41.7%12,572 14,616 18,345 21,264 24,288 6.3%9.1%7.5%8.0%8.5%ROE 7.1%11.5%10.9%12.9%14.5%:2 0 2 0 A 2 0 2 1 A 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 41.9%45.4%53.6%56.9%59.0%513.0 908.3 925.7 1,172.4 1,439.4 2.71 2.57 1.90 1.70 1.59 165.6 169.4 105.8 129.9 157.9 2.42 2.20 1.67 1.49 1.40-207.5-424.7-546.1-614.3-637.3 139.5 63.2 44.4 89.4 114.0-290.6-14.9-3.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 320 701 530 777 1,074 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7-689-380-517-606-704 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 5-110 0 0 0 1,257 162 0 0 0 0.19 0.34 0.35 0.44 0.55 573-329-517-606-704 0.12 0.27 0.20 0.29 0.41 0.3 0.7-2.77 3.03 3.23 3.48 3.78-197-378 2,663 1,511 1,576-184 473-436-604-762-380 96 2,227 907 814 44.2 25.0 24.5 19.3 15.8 513 469 2,241 1,078 1,184 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 22Q4 2023 4 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer