中规院：一带一路2022年度报告_20页_8mb.pdf

THE ANNUAL REPORT 2022年度报告China Academy of Urban Planning&Design 中国城市规划设计研究院“一带一路”倡议下的全球城市GLOBAL CITIES IN THE VISION OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVETURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT中国城市规划设计研究院中国城市规划设计研究院前言 PREFACE2022 年，新冠肺炎疫情持续肆虐，俄乌冲突波及全球，能源危机愈演愈烈，全球化危机一波未平，一波又起。多重冲击下，全球交通联系动荡，产业链供应链破碎化，各国政府纷纷加大本土投资保障发展安全与韧性，全球城市陷入动荡之中，面临着不确定的挑战与机遇。在全球治理阵营对立风险日益增长、贸易壁垒不断推高的背景下，“一带一路”倡议倡导的包容性全球化理念是全球化“寒潮”中的一股暖流，为全球化注入新的动力。包容性全球化坚持更公平的发展理念，推动新兴经济体城市通过多样路径嵌入全球城市网络，催生多元共生的“全球城市雨林”。今年，我们持续优化完善全球活力城市、“一带一路”潜力城市指标体系及算法，与时俱进结合产业方向变革、科技竞争加剧趋势，对全球城市复苏的特征作出新观察。我们完善了数据来源和技术分析方法，以数字化方式直观呈现、深入探讨全球创新、生产与服务、联通设施网络特征与趋势。百年变局和世纪疫情相互交织影响下，今年全球城市复苏态势冷暖有别，美洲提升、欧洲下降、东亚持平，全球城市格局正在发生重大调整。随着全球产业链供应链多元化、近岸化重构，新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速演进，全球城市秩序重构的趋势初露端倪。In 2022,COVID-19 continues to rage.Meanwhile,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to consequences worldwide,with intensifying energy crisis and globalization crisis coming in waves.The external shocks have resulted in disruptions of global transportation connectivity and fragmentation in supply chains.Governments around the world are increasing their domestic investments to safeguard development security and resilience.Faced with uncertain challenges and opportunities,global cities are going through turmoil.Against the backdrop of growing risks from the confrontation of opposing camps in global governance and the rising trade barriers,the concept of inclusive globalization advocated by the Belt and Road Initiative is a warm current amid the cold wave of globalization,injecting new momentum into globalization process.Inclusive globalization advocates more equitable development,with the aim to facilitate emerging countries to embed themselves into the network of global cities through various paths and create a diverse and symbiotic rainforest of global cities.This year,we have continued to optimize and improve the index system and algorithm of global dynamic cities and Belt and Road potential cities,with new observation on the features of global cities recovery and consideration of the trend of industrial evolution and intensified technological competition.We have improved the data sources and technical analysis methods to digitize and delve into the features and trends of global innovation network,production and service network,and connectivity facility network.Under the influence of profound changes unseen in a century intertwined with the once-in-a-century pandemic,the recovery of global cities remains uneven,with growth in the Americas,recession in Europe and stagnation in East Asia,leading to significant adjustments to the landscape of global cities.With the diversification and nearshoring of global supply chains,a new wave of technological revolution and industrial evolution is picking up speed,thus giving shape to the reshuffling of global cities order.中国城市规划设计研究院目录 CONTENTS全球城市的动荡与重构全球活力城市“一带一路”潜力城市城市观察TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT OF GLOBAL CITIESGLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIESBELT AND ROAD POTENTIAL CITIESOBSERVATION ON GLOBAL CITIES123page 04附录 1：2022 年全球活力城市指数排名APPENDIX 1:2022 RANKING OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES INDEXpage 32附录 2：2022 年“一带一路”潜力城市指数排名APPENDIX 2:2022 RANKING OF INDEX FOR BELT AND ROAD POTENTIAL CITIESpage 34附录 3：城市列表APPENDIX 3:LIST OF CITIESpage 36page 05page 19page 244中国城市规划设计研究院中国城市规划设计研究院全球城市的动荡与重构TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT OF GLOBAL CITIES全球化危机一波未平，一波又起CRISIS OF GLOBALIZATION COMING IN WAVES新冠肺炎病毒变异不断、持续肆虐。联合国数据显示超过 90%的确诊病例来自城市地区，人口集中的城市是新冠肺炎疫情的震中。猴痘病毒汹汹来袭，世界卫生组织再度发布“全球最高级别公共卫生警报”，全球城市公共卫生安全面临不断的威胁与挑战。俄乌冲突对全球能源、粮食、矿产供应链的冲击不断显现，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测 2022 年全球经济增速显著放缓，美国和欧洲部分经济体的通 胀 已 达4 0年 来 的 最 高 水 平。地 缘 政 治 紧 张、极端天气频发、全球经济风险等纷繁复杂的挑战相互交织，进一步加剧了 全球城市复苏的不确定性。COVID-19 mutations and variants continue to wreak havoc.According to the UN,urban areas with high population density are epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic,accounting for more than 90%of reported cases.With the onslaught of monkeypox,the WHO issued the highest level of alert for Public Health Emergency of International Concern.Public health and safety in global cities are under constant threat and challenge.The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global supply chains of energy,food and minerals continues to emerge.The IMF projected slower global economic recovery in 2022.Inflation in the US and some European economies has hit the highest level in 40 years.Geopolitical tensions,frequent extreme weather events,global economic risks and other complex challenges are intertwined,further exacerbating the uncertainty in the recovery of global cities.全球城市动荡变革与秩序重构TRANSFORMATION AMID TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT OF ORDER全球交通联系动荡。新冠肺炎疫情下各国管制措施松紧有别，全球航空客运尚未完全恢复。地缘冲突不断升级导致国际陆路交通受阻、关键海上通道中断，全球货运动荡起伏进一步加剧。此外，“北溪”天然气管道受损、海底光缆故障等重大国际事件，也接连对全球城市物流、信息流网络带来扰动。全球产业链供应链重塑。频频爆发的“黑天鹅”事件加速了全球供应链重塑的步伐，主要国家地区出于安全考虑推动产业链供应链多元化、近岸Global transportation connectivity is disrupted.During the pandemic,different countries have introduced varying restrictions and the global air passenger traffic has not yet fully recovered.Escalating geopolitical conflicts have led to disruptions in international land transportation as well as important sea lanes.Besides,major international events,such as the Nord Stream gas pipeline damage and submarine cable failures,have also disturbed the networks of global urban logistics and information flow.Global supply chains are being reshaped.The frequent outbreak of black swan events has accelerated the realignment pace of global supply chain.Major countries and regions are seeking to diversify,nearshore and friend-shore their supply chains for security reasons to reduce the dependence in key areas such as semiconductors,new energy batteries,key minerals and medical supplies on a single foreign supplier.As a result,the industrial landscape of global cities is undergoing profound changes.Technology race and innovation competition are growing.In the context of the fourth industrial revolution,the pace of digitalization and green transformation of industries has accelerated,and innovation has become a key variable in reshaping the global and regional competitive landscape.Governments have readjusted their priority areas of science and technology,and increased investment in homegrown cutting-edge technology research and scientific innovation.The innovation landscape of global cities is entering a period of rapid readjustments.化、“友岸化”布局，降低半导体、新能源电池、关键矿物和医药用品等关键领域对外国单一供应商的依赖，全球城市产业格局正在发生深刻变革。技术和创新竞争日趋剧烈。在第四次工业革命浪潮背景下，产业数字化绿色化转型步伐加快，创新成为重塑全球和区域竞争格局的关键变量。各国政府纷纷重新调整科技重点领域布局，加大本土尖端技术研究和科技创新投资，全球城市创新格局正在进入快速调整变化的时期。全球活力城市GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES总体格局：全球城市复苏冷暖有别GENERAL LANDSCAPE:UNEVEN RECOVERY OF GLOBAL CITIES今年，东京、上海、北京继续稳居全球前三位，但在全球范围内，各区域城市的复苏势头强弱不均，排名总体呈现美洲提升、欧洲下降、东亚持平的差异化特征。在美洲板块，由于创新能力进一步增强、国际客运航班快速恢复，芝加哥、亚特兰大等城市排名提升，其中亚特兰大凭借繁忙的全球航班联系首次进入全球前 20 位。波哥大、圣地亚哥等南美首都城市积极嵌入全球生产与服务网络，发展活力提升。在欧洲板块，受一系列国际事件的影响，伦敦、巴黎、鹿特丹等交通枢纽型城市受到较大This year,Tokyo,Shanghai and Beijing continue to maintain their top 3 positions globally,but the recovery of global cities remains uneven.The cities in the Americas rise in the rankings,whereas European cities fall and East Asian cities hold the line.For the Americas,Chicago and Atlanta witness improved rankings due to further strengthened innovation and rapid recovery of international passenger flights,with Atlanta entering the global top 20 for the first time with its busy global flight routes.Capital cities in South America including Bogota and Santiago are actively seeking to embed themselves into the global production and service network and thus are gaining momentum in development.In Europe,transport hubs such as London,Paris and Rotterdam have been hit harder by a series of international events.In East Asia,Tokyo,Shanghai and Beijing continue to rank high,中国城市规划设计研究院中国城市规划设计研究院动荡与重构：2022 年“一带一路”倡议下的全球城市报告 TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT:THE ANNUAL REPORT 2022 ON GLOBAL CITIES IN THE VISION OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE04 05图 2-1 全球活力城市指数排名及得分（前 20 位）Figure 2-1 RANK AND SCORE OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES INDEX(TOP 20)全球创新网络 Global Innovation Network全球生产与服务网络 Global Production and Service Network全球联通设施网络 Global Facility Connectivity Network0 0.5 1.5 2 1图 2-2 全球活力城市排名变化情况 Figure 2-2 CHANGE IN THE RANKINGS OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITIES图 2-3 全球活力城市聚落分布 Figure 2-3 DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL DYNAMIC CITY CLUSTERS1 基于全球活力城市地理分布与全球活力城市指数，融合 DBscan 算法与 3I 模型，识别全球活力城市的聚落体系。Based on the geographical distribution of global dynamic cities and Global Dynamic Cities Index,DBSCAN algorithm and 3I model are integrated to identify the cluster system of global dynamic cities.冲击。在东亚板块，东京、上海、北京等城市持续位居前列，整体表现较为稳定，深圳凭借创新及先进制造优势稳中有进。我们发现，全球领先的活力城市呈现区域性集聚的特征，由一个或多个极点城市联动区域形成全球活力城市聚落1，它们在全球城市发展中扮演着引领性角色。东亚地区引领世界级活力城市聚落，中国、日本 3 大城市聚落进入全球前 5。多极组合型城市聚落如粤港澳大湾区、欧洲北部城市群、达拉斯-休斯敦等，将成为未来城市群协同发展与潜力释放的新形态。跨境型城市聚落如温哥华-西雅图、欧洲北部城市群、粤港澳大湾区等，将成为未来跨制度、跨文化协作的重要载体。with stable overall performance.Shenzhen makes steady progress by building upon its advantages in innovation and advanced manufacturing.We find that the leading global dynamic cities are characterized by regional clustering.That is,one or several core cities are driving the growth of the entire region to generate a cluster of global dynamic cities,which plays a leading role in the development of global cities.East Asia is leading the world in the development of global dynamic city clusters1,with three major city clusters in China and Japan entering the global top 5.The city clusters with several core cities,such as Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Northern European city cluster and Dallas-Houston cluster,will become the new paradigm of future city clusters to coordinate development and unleash potential.Cross-border city clusters such as Vancouver-Seattle cluster,Northern European city cluster and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,will become the major platforms for collaboration across,institutions and cultures.GLOBAL INNOVATION NETWORK:POLARITY AND UBIQUITY 全球创新网络：创新极化与泛在并存2OF INNOVATION2全球创新城市格局高度极化，东京、旧金山、北京、伦敦、圣迭戈、剑桥等极少数城市在全球创新网络中占据主导地位，是全球创新“塔尖”。此外，创新优势城市在日本东京湾、旧金山湾区、The landscape of global innovation cities is highly polarized.A very few cities such as Tokyo,San Francisco,Beijing,London,San Diego,and Cambridge dominate the global innovation network as the pinnacles of global innovation.In addition,cities with advantages in innovation are concentrated in Tokyo Bay of Japan,San Francisco Bay Area,2 智慧芽创新研究中心作为全球“技术前沿”网络部分研究支持方。Patsnap Innovation Research Center is a research partner,providing support for the section on Global Technology Frontier Network.东京 Tokyo上海 Shanghai北京 Beijing新加坡 Singapore伦敦 London纽约 New York深圳 Shenzhen首尔 Seoul旧金山 San Francisco香港 Hong Kong洛杉矶 Los Angeles芝加哥 Chicago广州 Guangzhou迪拜 Dubai巴黎 Paris阿姆斯特丹 Amsterdam亚特兰大 Atlanta哥本哈根 Copenhagen华盛顿 Washington波士顿 Boston排名提升排名小幅提升排名不变排名小幅下降排名下降创新网络生产服务网络联通设施网络城市聚落 TOP5 全球城市聚落多极组合型城市聚落中国城市规划设计研究院中国城市规划设计研究院动荡与重构：2022 年“一带一路”倡议下的全球城市报告 TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT:THE ANNUAL REPORT 2022 ON GLOBAL CITIES IN THE VISION OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE06 07图 2-4 全球创新城市网络格局 Figure 2-4 LANDSCAPE OF GLOBAL INNOVATION NETWORK图 2-5全球创新城市聚落分布 Figure 2-5 DISTRIBUTION OF GLOBAL INNOVATION CITY CLUSTERSmarkets and developing countries,such as New Delhi and Kuala Lumpur,have become new players in the global innovation network thanks to their advantages in industries and markets.They are spreading global innovation resources and factors across a broader range of places.As a result,the landscape of global innovation features both polarity and ubiquity.In the context of technological decoupling,the rankings of research-driven cities in Europe and the United States,including London and Cambridge,have risen significantly,while Hangzhou and Taipei,which bear the brunt of the technology rivalry,fall this year due to relatively weak R&D capabilities.New Observation on Global Innovation Frontier NetworkAt present,the world is ushering in the sixth wave of innovation marked by artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things.The competition among countries around science and technology is more intense than ever.The frontier science and technology are playing an increasingly prominent role in changing the dynamics of national powers.This year,based on our observation on the trends and guiding policies home and abroad,we have identified nine science frontiers such as artificial intelligence,brain science and quantum information,seven technology frontiers3 such as new materials and new energy vehicles and several industry frontiers such as unicorns and representative innovation enterprises.We pay special attention to the performance of global cities in terms of innovation in science,technology and industry frontiers.Scientific Innovation Frontier:European and American cities are leading global theoretical innovation and Asian cities are rapidly on the riseUniversities and research institutes are the mainstay of the science frontier,who produce original and disruptive core technologies or ideas through basic research.The core players in this area include Beijing,London and Cambridge.Despite the rapid rise of Asian cities such as Beijing,European and American cities remain dominant in global research activities.As for the science frontier network,the connections within Europe and between Europe and eastern US cities are relatively close,while Chinese cities have strong internal ties but insufficient international cooperation.经济体城市也凭借产业化和市场化优势，成为全球创新网络中的新力量，推动全球创新资源要素向更广阔的区域扩散，呈现创新极化与泛在并存的图景。“技术脱钩”背景下，伦敦、剑桥等欧美基础科研型城市排名显著上升，而杭州、台北等由于基础研发能力相对不足，今年排名有所下降，处于科技博弈动荡的前沿。全球创新前沿网络特别观察当前，全球进入到以人工智能和物联网等为标志的第六波创新浪潮，各国围绕科学技术的竞争空前激烈，前沿科技领域在改变国家力量对比方面的决定性作用愈加凸显。今年，我们结合国内外趋势与政策导向，识别了人工智能、脑科学、量子信息等九大科学前沿，新材料、新能源汽车等七大技术前沿3及以独角兽、代表性科技创新企业为代表的产业前沿作为特别观察领域，探讨全球城市在科学前沿、技术前沿、产业前沿三个创新环节的表现。科学创新前沿：欧美城市引领全球理论创新，亚洲城市快速崛起科学前沿以高校、科研院所等力量为主体，通过基础研究产出原创性、颠覆性的核心技术或理念。该环节以北京、伦敦、剑桥为核心，尽管以北京为代表的亚洲城市快速崛起，欧美城市仍然占据全球科学研究的主导地位。科学前沿网络方面，欧洲内部、欧洲与美国东部城市的联系相对密切，中国城市内部合作紧密但国际合作相对不足。美国东北部、粤港澳大湾区、京津冀、欧洲北部及英伦地区集聚形成全球创新聚落，成为推动全球创新发展的重要载体。随着全球科技创新进入多点突破、群体迸发的新阶段，新德里、吉隆坡等部分新兴市场和发展中northeastern United States,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Northern Europe and the UK to form global innovation clusters,serving as the important venues for the development of global innovation.As breakthroughs are achieved in various areas of innovation in science and technology by multiple players worldwide,cities in emerging 3 九大科学前沿领域分别为人工智能、脑科学、量子信息、半导体、医学健康、生物技术、新材料、新能源、太空；七大技术前沿领域分别为人工智能、通信、半导体、新材料、生物医药、新能源汽车、新能源。The nine science frontiers are artificial intelligence,brain science,quantum information,semiconductors,healthcare,biotechnology,new materials,new energy,and space.The seven technology frontiers are artificial intelligence,communications,semiconductors,new materials,biomedicine,new energy vehicles,and new energy.科学前沿技术前沿产业前沿科学前沿技术前沿产业前沿科学前沿价值技术前沿价值产业前沿价值联系（线）城市（点）中国城市规划设计研究院中国城市规划设计研究院动荡与重构：2022 年“一带一路”倡议下的全球城市报告 TURMOIL AND REALIGNMENT:THE ANNUAL REPORT 2022 ON GLOBAL CITIES IN THE VISION OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE08 09技术创新前沿：以东京领衔的东亚城市创新活跃技术前沿多以研发机构、实验室等力量为主体，主要表现为以专利产出等为载体的技术创新。当前全球处于技术爆发阶段，东亚城市在 PCT 专利申请和授权方面展现出特别优势，日本有 5 座城市进入全球前 20