深度报告-20230222-华创证券-新兴铸管-000778.SZ-深度研究报告_水利投资爆发式增长_铸管龙头受益_27页_1mb (1).pdf

2009 1210 2023 02 22 000778 5.5 4.02 320 500 2020 295.55 35%42%2022 10893 2021 44%2022 4179 2023 2021 12 2023 2023 2023 2022-2024 503 545 581-5.7%8.5%6.6%16.4 22.1 26.2-18.5%35%18.4%EPS 0.41 0.55 0.66 PE 10 7 6 2023 10 221 5.5 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()53,301 50,257 54,526 58,109(%)24.1%-5.7%8.5%6.6%()2,007 1,636 2,210 2,617(%)10.7%-18.5%35.0%18.4%()0.50 0.41 0.55 0.66()8 10 7 6()0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 2023 2 20 S0360522120003()399,005.88()389,621.26()160.40()156.63(%)51.44()6.11 12/5.36/3.48(12)-32%-21%-10%1%22/02 22/05 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/022022-02-212023-02-21 300 000778 2009 1210 2022 320 2022 2023 2023 500 2023 2022 10893 2021 44%2023 2022-2024 270 300 320 5500 6000 6500 550 530 530 2022-2024 503 545 581-5.7%8.5%6.6%16.4 22.1 26.2-18.5%35%18.4%EPS 0.41 0.55 0.66 PE 10 7 6 2018 9.74 2023 10 221 5.5 000778 2009 1210 3.5.5.6.9.10.11.12.12.13.16 1.16 2.21 3.22.22.22.23.23 000778 2009 1210 4 1 2000.5 2 2000-2020.6 3 2022.6 4.6 5.7 6.8 7.8 8 2022 H1.8 9.8 10 2022H1.9 11 2022H1.9 12.9 13.10 14.10 15.12 16.13 17.14 18.15 19.15 20.16 21.17 22.20 23.21 24.21 25.21 26.22 27.23 000778 2009 1210 5 1971 10 1993 1996 1997 1 2000 1971 1971 10 1982 1971 1982 1983 30 1986 1990 1993 1996 1997 2000 2000-2020 000778 2009 1210 2 2000-2020 3 2022 4 000778 2009 1210 7/5 500 320 2021 295 2020 207 30%374.65 2.85%8.82 37.81%2022 2022 2023 000778 2009 1210 6 7 2022 384.78 8.49%2022 77.57 28.77%67.33 24.97%60.52 22.45%2022 2022 22 23 8 2022 H1 9 2022 7.85%2021 2022H1 10.58%2021 0.33 8.75%2021 4.75 5.76%2021 4.45 2023 01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 0501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021,28.77%,24.97%,22.45%,23.81%21.34%28.04%28.54%32.37%28.24%28.77%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 000778 2009 1210 10 2022H1 11 2022H1 A+500 12+6 40mm HRB400 HRB500 HRB600 PSB500 PSB830 MG335 MG500 6 280mm DN802600mm 320+1 DN15-DN200 13 316 20 200mm 165 18 1-3 80%-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%铸管及管铸件 普钢 优特钢 其他产品%,36.96%,26.53%,15.70%,20.81%000778 2009 1210 10 20%25%13 320 14 050100150200250300350新兴铸管 圣戈班穆松桥 国铭铸管 安阳永通 000778 2009 1210 11 2021()2020 900 853 850 700 320 2020 295.55 35%42%120 AAA A+500 25 120 2022 5 1800 380 PCT14 30 9 13 6 2 ISO10804 ISO8180 ISO21052 000778 2009 1210 12 15 2022 2021 12 2022 1 10 102 2022 10893 2021 44%2022 47 4577 100 13 34 20 1 12 500 2.5 1.23 4.1 3500 1605 1.4 18169 87%529 622 6.3 11564 2021 44%2036 3204 2022 12 15 000778 2009 1210 13 16/2021 12 8 2022 1 4“”2022 1 10 102 1.2 2023 1 13 2022 2022 10893 2021 44%2022 47 4577 100 13 1 12 500 2.5 1.23 4.1 11564 2021 44%2036 3204 6%20%81%40%40%000778 2009 1210 14 17 000778 2009 1210 15 18 19 wind wind 2021 2025 290 88%1500 2022 4179 529 370 3000 2022 2132 1 16 2023 2023 2023 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0501001502002502000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021%02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 000778 2009 1210 16 20/2021 12 31“”2025 2022 1 6(1 6)2021 7576 150 62 4263 2025 290 85%2022 1 7 10“”2022 1 8 500 2023 1 2 2023(2023)1 2021 12 000778 2009 1210 17 2022 6 10 2022-2025 2025 2022 12 21/2021 12 14 2021 12 16“”4 10 2022“”2021 12 22 喆 喆 102 2021 12 25 40“”2021 12 28 2021“000778 2009 1210 18 5G”2021 12 28 2023 2025“”“”2035 2021 12 31 2022“”2022 800“”“”“”2022 1 24“”2025 8 2000/2022 1 24 2025 2000 2022 1 28 100 80 2022 2 9 000778 2009 1210 19 2022 3 15 2025 12%2020 2025 8%2025 7%2022 6 10 2022 2025 2022 2025 1 30 2 50 3 20 1 2 3 4 5 000778 2009 1210 22 wind 2022 1-10 5.16 2022 1 2025 9%100 80 2021 12.75%2021 8 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,000 000778 2009 1210 23 wind 2 2021 872283 2020 8.67%4600 700 24 25 wind wind 2021 2.1/7.8%97.89%0.36 68.6%3.8 28%2025 40%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0001,000,0002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021%000778 2009 1210 22 2025 8 2000/3 2021 770.56 2078.76 893.75 2011-2021 5.96%10.44%11.42%26 wind 2022 22+23 2022-2024 270 300 320 500 550 530 530 2022-2024 5500 6000 6500 4200 4500 4600 2022-2024 11%12%13%2022-2024 7.5%8.5%9%05001,0001,5002,0002,500:000778 2009 1210 23 2023 2022-2024 503 545 581-5.7%8.5%6.6%16.4 22.1 26.2-18.5%35.0%18.4%EPS 0.41 0.55 0.66 PE 10 7 6 2018 9.74 2023 10 221 5.5 27 wind 0.00005.000010.000015.000020.000025.00002018-02-22 2019-02-22 2020-02-22 2021-02-22 2022-02-22 000778.SZ 000778 2009 1210 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 9,533 13,087 16,414 20,277 53,301 50,257 54,526 58,109 3,292 3,943 3,960 4,341 47,880 45,660 49,325 52,177 2,093 2,191 2,402 2,532 333 413 412 448 669 638 689 729 437 412 447 477 5,452 6,814 7,100 7,414 771 726 788 840 0 0 0 0 529 498 541 576 3,588 4,292 4,602 4,778 387 452 437 418 24,627 30,965 35,167 40,071-322-30-30-30 115 109 117 124-402-6-6-6 4,549 4,549 4,549 4,549 0 0 0 0 17,834 17,385 16,868 16,231 503 503 503 503 1,978 2,078 2,203 2,303 83 83 83 83 2,581 2,323 2,090 1,881 2,988 2,806 3,288 3,885 1,697 1,696 1,698 1,698 31 31 30 30 28,754 28,140 27,525 26,786 75 75 75 75 53,381 59,105 62,692 66,857 2,944 2,762 3,243 3,840 8,204 6,204 6,404 6,604 764 717 841 996 1,462 1,475 1,565 1,625 2,180 2,045 2,402 2,844 5,500 6,418 6,646 7,066 173 409 192 227 0 0 0 0 2,007 1,636 2,210 2,617 2,796 2,637 2,861 3,049 NOPLAT 2,467 2,380 2,725 3,153 1,170 1,170 1,170 1,170 EPS()0.50 0.41 0.55 0.66 846 846 846 846 1,420 1,350 1,494 1,647 21,398 20,100 20,986 22,007 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 878 4,878 5,178 5,478 3,982 3,982 3,982 3,982 24.1%-5.7%8.5%6.6%784 748 748 748 EBIT 6.5%-3.5%14.5%15.7%5,644 9,608 9,908 10,208 10.7%-18.5%35.0%18.4%27,042 29,708 30,894 32,215 23,528 26,177 28,386 31,002 10.2%9.1%9.5%10.2%2,811 3,220 3,412 3,640 4.1%4.1%4.4%4.9%26,339 29,397 31,798 34,642 ROE 7.6%5.6%6.9%7.6%53,381 59,105 62,692 66,857 ROIC 9.4%7.9%8.5%9.1%50.7%50.3%49.3%48.2%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 55.8%56.7%54.0%51.0%3,169 1,379 3,613 3,635 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 3,749 3,925 4,211 4,577 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 594-1,362-286-315 1,003-712-274-544 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 358 931 318 480 14 15 15 15-2,536-1,403-356-562 42 47 48 47-2,684-800-725-540 43 48 51 50-3,356-821-749-569()-98 0 0 0 0.50 0.41 0.55 0.66 770 21 24 29 0.79 0.35 0.91 0.91-1,187 2,975 439 768 5.90 6.56 7.11 7.77-292 2,000 500 500-1,179-637-616-593 P/E 8 10 7 6 490 490 490 490 P/B 1 1 1 1-206 1,122 65 371 EV/EBITDA 16 16 14 13 000778 2009 1210 25 6 2 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 7 Wind 2022 2 2022 000778 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 000778 2009 1210 27(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522