深度报告-20230120-国海证券-江苏吴中-600200.SH-公司深度研究_深化产业转型_未来发展可期_24页_1mb.pdf
2023 01 20()S0350521110002 S0350121110026 Table_Title 600200 300 2023/01/19 1M 3M 12M 5.9%9.5%4.2%300 6.7%10.0%-13.1%2023/01/19 7.73 52 5.43-9.83 5,506.26 5,474.88 71,232.38 70,826.45 115.74%4.41 2021H1 Humedix 2021 10 2021 12 AestheFill PDLLA 68 2023+2022 7 2022 9,CDMO/&/2022 1 17.28 CDMO 2022-2024 19.6/21.4/26.8 10.5%/8.9%/25.6%-0.004/0.41/1.37 2023-2024 PE 135/40+-0.2726-0.1519-0.03110.08960.21030.331022/1 22/2 22/3 22/4 22/6 22/7 22/8 22/9 22/1022/1122/12 23/1 300 2 Table_Forcast1 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1775.4 1961.4 2136.3 2684.1(%)-5.14 10.47 8.92 25.64 22.72-4.33 40.70 136.77(%)104.5-119.1-1039.8 236.0 0.03-0.01 0.06 0.19 ROE(%)1.2-0.2 2.2 6.7 P/E 285.67-1,271.53 135.30 40.26 P/B 3.29 2.98 2.91 2.71 P/S 3.10 2.81 2.58 2.05 EV/EBITDA 226.62 44.22 32.94 17.80 Wind 3 1“+”.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.8 2.11 2.1.11 2.2“+”.13 3.14 3.1 AestheFill.14 3.2 Humedix.16 3.3.18 4.20 5.20 4 1 2022 11.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 7.7 8 2017-2022H1.8 9 2022 9.9 10.11 11 2021.12 12 2020.12 13.12 14.13 15 Humedix HARA.13 16 Regen Biotech AestheFill.13 17.14 18.14 19.15 20 2021/.15 21.17 23 Humedix.17 24.18 25 2020/.18 26.19 27.19 1 2022 11.10 2.11 3 AestheFill.16 4().20 5 1+1.1 1994 1999 2005 9 2018 5 2021 4 2021 10+1 2022 11 1)1994-2002 2)2003-2016 3)2017-2019 4)2020 HARA AestheFill AestheFill 2023 HARA 6 2025 2022 7 2 1.2 2017-2021 29.60/17.02/21.10/18.72/17.75-25.79%/-42.50%/23.97%/-11.28%/-5.18%2022 13.80 5.96%2017-2021 1.33/-2.86/0.65/-5.06/0.23 3 4 Wind Wind 2017-2021 21.63%35.46%29.60%30.74%28.83%2018 2020-50.00%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-6-5-4-3-2-10122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 7 2017-2021 4.57%-16.59%2.93%-27.12%1.16%2018 10.51%25.18%2019 0.64%2021 1.19%5 6 Wind Wind 2017 2019 100%2019 2021 72.73%26.42%99.15%7/2017-2021 11.64 13.10 15.15 13.38 12.91 21.29%12.55%15.66%-11.66%-3.49%2020 36.72%38.53%39.65%42.34%38.25%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1药品行业 贸易行业 化工行业 房地行业 贵金属加 工 8 8 2017-2022H1 1.3 2022 17.24%0.52%2005/+2021 2022 1 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 9 9 2022 9 Wind 95%10 1 2022 6 50 55 52-44 45 MEDIAMATEC 41 2022 2 16 2021 3 16 2022 2 16 109 330.40 3.68/11 28 2022 10 31 17 80.5303 3.49/2022 1 5 2022 3 3.68/370.50 0.52%12 24 36 2022 3 14 40%30%30%11 2 1 2021 2022 10%2 2021 2022 10%40%1 2021 2023 20%2 2021 2023 20%30%1 2021 2024 30%2 2021 2024 30%30%2 2.1 2017-2021 993 1891 17.47%2020 2021 20%Frost&Sullivan 2022-2025 2267 3529 15.90%2030 6400 10 Frost&Sullivan 2021 22.2%8.6%4.3%2020 20.8 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000中国医疗 美容 市场规 模（亿 元）同比增速 12 11 2021 12 2020 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2021 2021 2030 4157 13 Frost&Sullivan 78.70%46.80%22.2%8.6%4.3%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%一线 城 市 二线 城 市 三线 城 市82.447.942.826.420.80102030405060708090-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500中 国 非 手 术 类 医 疗 美 容 市 场 规 模（亿 元）中 国 手 术 类 医 疗 美 容 市 场 规 模非手 术类医美同比 增速 手术 类医美同比增 速 13 14 2.2+2021 7 3000 60%Humedix HARA 2021 12+51%Regen Biotech,Inc AestheFill 15 Humedix HARA 16 Regen Biotech AestheFill Humedix Regen Biotech 1996 2022 7-2022 9 III 86.23%78.70%17.14%2.60%78.79%46.80%12.46%6.73%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%14 17 18 3 3.1 AestheFill 2021-2025 4.2 16.3 40.36%2021 15 2024 147.62%AestheFill 19 2021 1ml 10000/15000-20000/20 2021/AestheFill AestheFill 2014 68 AestheFill AestheFill 0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%051015202021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E中国童颜 针再 生注射 剂市场 规模（亿元）同比增长0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000低 价玻尿 酸中 端玻尿 酸高 端玻尿 酸童 颜针 16 AestheFill AestheFill 24 3 AestheFill AestheFill PDLLA+CMC PLLA-PEG-+HA PLLA+CMC+PCL+CMC 5-20 10-20 24 12 2 1-2+CMC+NMPA E AestheFill 2021 12 AestheFill AestheFill NMPA 2023 3.2 Humedix 2017-2021 31 64 19.7%2020 20-30%2022-2030 82 17 441 20%21 Frost&Sullivan Humedix Humedix Humedix Humedix Humedix 1 Humedix 2 3 23 Humedix Humedix 00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.40100200300400500中国玻尿酸皮肤填充剂市场规模（亿元）同比增长 18 3.3 2017-2021 8 46 52.8%2022-2027 72 645 55.0%24 Frost&Sullivan 1 2 3 0.75ml 6000-20000/0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%02004006008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E动物源胶 原蛋 白（亿 元）重 组 胶 原 蛋 白（亿 元）动物源胶 原蛋 白同比 增长 重 组 胶 原 蛋 白 同 比 增 长 25 2020/0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000低 价玻尿 酸中 端玻尿 酸高 端玻尿 酸童 颜针 19 2022-2027 72 645 55%38.8%2022 18%2027 30%72 256 28.8%23.1%2022 21%2027 26%26 27 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan+2022 7 0%10%20%30%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E 2027E重组胶原 蛋白 其他重组胶原 蛋白 渗透率 总量0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001,0002017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E 2027E重组胶原 蛋白 其他重组胶原 蛋白 渗透率 总量 20 4+2021-2024 12.91/14.21/15.63/17.19/2022-2024 0.25/0.52/4.39 2021 Humedix HARA 2022 2022-2024 19.6/21.4/26.8 10.5%/8.9%/25.6%-0.0/0.41/1.37 2023-2024 PE 135/40+4()2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E YoY 1291.42-3.49%1420.56 10.00%1562.61 10.00%1718.87 10.00%/YOY 24.50 52.20 113.06%438.51 740.06%YOY 21.00 399.00 1800.00%HARA YOY 8.50 12.75 50.00%17.00 33.33%YOY 16.00 18.45 15.31%22.51 22.00%YOY 469.39-9.41%516.33 10.00%521.49 1.00%526.70 1.00%1775.45 1961.38 2136.30 2684.09 YOY-5.14%10.47%8.92%25.64%28.83%32.47%32.98%39.07%22.72-4.33 40.70 136.77 YOY 104.5%-119.1%1039.8%236.0%WIND 5 1 2 21 3 4 5 6 22 600200 7.73 2023/01/19 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1.2%-0.2%2.2%6.7%EPS 0.03-0.01 0.06 0.19 0.6%-0.1%1.0%3.0%BVPS 2.60 2.60 2.66 2.85-0.4%0.6%1.7%4.0%P/E 285.67-1271.53 135.30 40.26-5.1%10.5%8.9%25.6%P/B 3.29 2.98 2.91 2.71 EBIT 71.7%272.8%173.6%153.4%P/S 3.10 2.81 2.58 2.05 104.5%-119.1%1039.8%236.0%1.5%7.6%-0.7%14.6%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1775 1961 2136 2684 147 132 140 136 1264 1325 1432 1635 40 46 43 44 12 13 14 18 53 63 58 60 415 441 455 621 757 716 679 578 105 126 115 122 63 55 53 57 50.1%53.7%52.5%55.7%21 37 32 35 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 EBIT-23 41 111 281 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1-2-15-10-12 EBIT-0.4 0.8 2.0 4.7 18 19 21 26 37-11 69 239 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 3 3 3 3 1,131 827 1,106 737 39-8 72 242 760 1,273 1,026 1,809 19-4 34 115 126 210 131 272 23-4 41 137 667 678 673 694-2 0-3-9 2,684 2,988 2,936 3,511 23-4 41 137 244 225 235 234 6 6 5 5 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 111 117 138 154 23-4 41 137 395 395 395 395-2 0-3-9 3,758 4,045 4,019 4,604 48 114 80 92 1116 1235 1327 1433-55 29 32 31 152 352 143 451 434-436 175-592 1 2 2 2 448-297 324-342 426 398 451 495 43-34-45-41 1,696 1,987 1,923 2,380-134-59-58-58 167 167 167 167 135 19 21 26 18 18 18 18 43-74-81-73 186 186 186 186 0 0 0 0 1,881 2,172 2,108 2,566 43 119 92 105 712 712 712 712-89-51-56-60 1,877 1,873 1,911 2,038-46 68 36 45 3,758 4,045 4,019 4,604 445-304 279-370 Wind 23/2017 2017 2018 2017 2018 2018,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%R3/
报告吧