深度报告-20221216-国海证券-充电桩行业深度报告_高压快充乘风起_出海正当时_55页_2mb.pdf

()()S0350521120006 S()2022 12 16 2*2022-06-13 2025*2022-06-04*2022-04-06*2022-03-30*2022-02-23-0.3000-0.2500-0.2000-0.1500-0.1000-0.05000.00000.050021-12 22-01 22-02 22-03 22-04 22-05 22-06 22-07 22-08 22-09 22-10 22-11 300 300 2022/12/15 1M 3M 12M-2.03%0.02%-25.00%300 2.22%-1.87%-21.05%3+2021 13%3:1 2022 9 2.6:1(2015-2020)2020 1:1 2025 39%3651 2025 2.2:1 2025 1660 1398 2020 5 EVCIPA 2022 10 64%36%2022 10 58%800V 800V+2021-2025 13%39%8%2021 3:1 2025 2.2:1 784 3651 262 1660 2025 45%55%65%35%2022-2025 5 0.3 2025 755 2021 113 4 CAGR 60.7%4 L1 L2 DC L2 2021 L2 80%AFDC 2021 13.3 15.3:1 3:1 marklines 2021 4.4%61 2025 473 1100 14:1 78.6 2021-2025 2.2 4.6 12.9 19.1 28.7 4 90.1%22kW IEA 2021 546 35.6 15.3:1 ACEA 2021 19.20%2025 1750 2025 13:1 2025 134.6 2021-2025 8.3 13.5 21.0 22.2 42.2 4 50.1%1 2 3 ABB ChargePoint 5 1 2 2022/12/15 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E300693.SZ 54.22 0.55 0.84 1.38 66.39 64.59 39.22 688208.SH 33.68 0.97 0.59 1.15 81.61 57.17 29.20 600212.SH 8.07-0.04 0.01 0.15-104.25 754.21 54.71 300260.SZ 77.11 0.75 1.64 2.34 62.93 47.02 32.93 600885.SH 35.25 1.43 1.27 1.64 52.32 27.69 21.56 Wind wind 6+7+81.1 2021 13%3:1 2021 784 13%262 3:1 2022 9 1149 449 2.6:1(2015-2020)2020 1:1 2025 39%3651 2025 2.2:1 2025 1660 1398 2021-2025 13%22%29%35%39%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E%3.43.12.93.02.600.511.522.533.5402004006008001,0001,2001,4002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9 91.2 2020 5 2022 1 2000 2020 2020 5 2020 2020 10(2021-2035)2035 2021 2 2021 3 2021 2021 5()2021 10 11 8 3 10+1000+2021 12 2022 1 2000 2022 3 2025 20%2022 5 2022 7 2025 72%101.3 2022 10 31 2021 1 2025 20 45 2021 11 96%100%2022 3 70 3 0.9 2021 2 6000 2022 3 2025 4500 252022 5 10.8 2025 12 2022 5 2025 50 2022 5 2025 6500 200 6 18 2022 5 2025 800 8 3:1 2022 3 2025 12 2021 12 2025 80 20 500 11 122.1 EVCIPA 2022 10 64%36%2022 10 58%42%2018 5pcts 0501001502002503003504004505002018 2019 2020 2021 截止2022 年10 月 37%42%38%41%42%63%58%62%59%58%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 截止2022 年10 月 132.2/8-10 7kW 220V 220/380V/20-30 30-120kW 380V 10kV 5-10 7-8()10-15()142.3=/Q=I2RT 800V 2019 Taycan Turbo S 800V 800V 车企 发布时间 续航表现 2019/800V 350kW/15 80%2019/400V 250kW/5 120 2020 800V/14 80%2021 800V/5 150 2021/400V/800V/30 80%2021/800V 180kW/10 196 2021 800V 300kW/10 200 2021/800V 360kW/5 120 2021 800V 400kW 600A 10 401 2021/1000V 480kW 600A 5 120 2021/800V 360kW 600A 10 401 2021/800V 480kW 670A 5 200 2023 800V/2023 800V/152.4 NE 800V 800V+OEM 车企 功率 高压值 充 电 桩 部署 240kW-360kW/2021 10 480kW-600kW 1000V2021 100 2025 300 2000 180kW-360kW/2021 24 480kW 800V 2021 10 439 250kW 400V 25000 800 6300/1.1 162.5 2025 755 4 CAGR 60.7%2021-2025 13%39%8%2021 3:1 2025 2.2:1 784 3651 262 1660 2025 45%55%65%35%2022-2025 5 0.3 2025 755 2021 113 4 CAGR 60.7%2021-2025 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E()2628 2750 2878 3012 3146 13%22%29%35%39%()352 616 832 1040 1227()784 1287 1947 2746 3651 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2()262 515 811 1194 1660 94 253 297 382 466 36%40%45%45%45%34.0 101.2 133.5 172.0 209.7%47%49%53%57%65%53%51%47%43%35%/6 5 5 5 5/0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 101 263 373 513 703%64%60%55%55%55%60 152 163 210 256/0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 12 30 33 42 51 113 294 405 555 755 172.6 36 182.7 300.().().().(EBM.().().192.7 15kW 20kW 30kW 40kW 30kW 60kW 120kW 240kW 360kW 480kW 60kW 20kW 60%30kW 40kW 202.7 220V/380V 7kW 40kW 3.5kW 7kW 11kW 21kW 40kW 7kW 40kW 212.7 50%90%50%2019 30%2019 30%PCB 30%10%25%PCB 10%10%15%2016 1.2/W 2020 0.38/W 120kW/W 充电模块,50%配电滤波设备,15%监控计费设备,10%电池维护设备,10%其他,15%1.20.60.50.40.380.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.42016 2017 2018 2019 2020功率器件，25%集成电路,10%磁性元件,25%PCB,10%电容,10%其他,15%222.7+EV 7.5kW 15/20kW 30/40kW 40kW 232.8 36 75%20-25%5%EVCIPA 2022 10 CR5 69.04%CR10 85.79%2022 9 2022 9 2022 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 特来电,19.30%星星充电,19.11%云快充,13.62%国家电网,11.70%小桔充电,5.31%蔚景云,3.92%深圳车电网,南方电网万城万充,2.81%汇充电,2.52%242.8/SaaS 252.8 SaaS app ToBToC 262.8 27+C B 2.8+ToB ToC 282.9/V2G SOC 292.9 PowerLab kV A kW 2022 10 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4 302.9 2020 11 2021-2035 2020 05 50/2020 06+2020 07 2020-2022 2020 11-2022 03(2022 2025)10 2022 05 31 323.1+L2 AFDC 2021 86%14%L1 L2 DC 1 L1 2 L2 DCfast L1 120V 2-5/L2 240 10-20/DC 480V 60-80/L2 DC 2021 L2 80%L2 19%DC 0.7%L1 87%L2 11%L1 2%DC DC 2021 2021 2021 分类 充电电压 充电速度Level1 L1 120V 2-5/Level2 L2 240V 10-20/DCfast 480V 20 60-80 公共充电桩,86%私人充电桩,14%L2，86.98%L1,11.34%DC 快充,1.68%L2，80.39%DC 快充,18.94%L1,0.67%333.1+AFDC Marklines IEA 15.3:1 IEA 2021 204 AFDC 2021 13.3 15.3:1 11.4 1.9 3:1 marklines 2021 4.4%61 2025 473 1100 14:1 78.6 2021-2025 2.2 4.6 12.9 19.1 28.7 4 90.1%2021 11 75 50 2021 11 75 500,000 50 80 4 50 25 2022 2 50 80%2022 8 30%100000 2022 9 9 35 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 33 61 112 191 316 473yoy%93.8%81.4%70.0%65.0%50.0%184 204 268 431 698 1100 16.5 15.3 15 14 14 14 11.1 13.3 17.9 30.8 49.9 78.6 2.2 4.6 12.9 19.1 28.7 2021-2025 CAGR 90.1%343.1 ChargePoint DC evadoption wind ChargePoint 43%L2 51%ChargePoint 2021-2022 ChargePoint 20%40%DC 2021 DC 58%ElectrifyAmerica 14%2021 DC 2021 2021 L2 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2021-04 2021-07 2021-10 2022-01 2022-04 2022-07 2021 4-2022 7 ChargePoint ChargePoint,43%Tesla,24%SemaConnect,5%Blink,3%Electrify America,3%EV Connect,3%其他,20%ChargePoint,51%Tesla,16%SemaConnect,6%Blink,3%EV Connect,3%Greenlots,3%其他,17%Tesla,58%Electrify America,14%EVgo,8%ChargePoint,8%FCN,3%Greenlots,2%其他,7%353.2 ACEA EAFO ERF EUROSTAT EAFO level 1 level 2 22kW IEA 2021 35.6 4.9 13.7%30.8 86.3%2021 2019 2pcts AECA 2021 5 80.4%ACEA 27 5 10 分类 最 大 功 率输出 定义AC P22kW DC P50kW 150kW level1 350kW level2 350kW 2020 2020 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05101520253035404550 2020 22KW 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000 2 2 KW 22KW50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%2019 2020 2021 363.2 IEA EV sales ACEA ACEA 2021 19.2%2019 15.7pcts 2021 13.4%4.4%2021 15:1 IEA 2021 546 35.6 15.3:1 2025 1750 2025 13:1 2025 134.6 2021-2025 8.3 13.5 21.0 22.2 42.2 4 50.1%2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 137 227 257 326 404 497yoy%66.9%13.2%26.8%23.9%23.0%316 546 738 983 1294 1750 11.6 15.3 15.0 14.0 14.0 13.0 27.3 35.6 49.2 70.2 92.4 134.6 8.3 13.5 21.0 22.2 42.2 2021-2025 CAGR 50.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%2019 2020 2021 373.2 EVBox 国家 时间 政策内容 2021 2022 14.5 2022 1000 2020 2020 2030 100 1000 2022 63 2030 14 7 100 150 1500 2021 1 150 kW 30 2017 2025 50 2019 2019 MOVES 4500 2020 2020 MOVES II MOVES 1 2030 2022 50%1/1.5 100%2021 2021 5 000 600 383.2 EAFO BP ABB IONITY ChargePoint EVBox 分类 业务模式 充 电 桩 布局情况 BPBP 2021 BP AMPLYPower 2021 BP 13100 2021 2.5 2025 50 ABB2010 2021 ABB 50 2.5 Supercharger HomeCharging DestinationCharging Tesla 4 IONITY 2021 1500 2025 7000 ChargePoint 2007 SaaS 2022 7 31 20 1.5 6 EVBox 2010 EVbox 40 393.3 EnelX GB/T CCS1 combo/Type1 CCS2 combo/Type 2 CHAdeMO CCS CHAdeMo GB/T 20234 ABB Charge Point 国 家 和 地区 认证 CQC CE UL FCC ETL VED TUV KEMA UKCA 40 414.1 wind 2017/15kW 20kW 30kW 40kW 2022 5.49 1.30 23.68%42.68%36%APF SPC AVC LVR UPS IDC 15kW 20kW 30kW 40kW PCS 2017-2022H1 2017-2022H1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 424.1 15kW 20kW 30kW 40kW TCU+CCU 360 2022 Interstellar BP C 应用场景 示例产品 60kW 240kW 360kW 480kW 7kW 60kW 7kW 434.2 Choice 2004 TPMS ADAS 70 2022 4.38 42%7kW 10kW 12kW 60kW 120kW 240kW 360kW 480kW 主营业务 细分产品 产品简介 ChargeAPP&TPMS TPMS/ID ID TPMSSensor ADAS ADAS ADAS 2019-2021 2019-2022H1 7.319.3111.972.142.754.171.122.292.081.343.0105101520252019 2020 2021 TPMS ADAS 5.316.9710 4.381.922.153.281.771.591.832.414.052.974.676.0805101520252019 2020 2021 2022H1 444.2 PTEN 2017 7kW 10kW 12kW 60kW 120kW 240kW 360kW 480kW UL CSA EnergyStar CE UKCA MID MID 50-70%30%0.5%KFW439/440/441 BMK GSE ADVENI-R IMEA 70 PTEN Autel Snap-on(+OTC)34.4%21.3%18.9%454.3 Wind 2022 100%2017 1 7kW-720kW 7kW-720kW 2 30kW/64kWh 107kW/215kWh 类别 产品名称 应用场景 7kW 30kW 60kW 120/180kW 360kW 360kW 720kW 120kW CCS2 CHAdeMO)30kW/64kWh 107kW/215kWh 201720182019202020212022 33 Chaoji 900kW 464.3 2017 CE CE 2022 BP 474.4 Wind 2006 2021 12.1 74%2017 0.73 2021 1.26 2017 7.5%2021 10.4%2006 LOGAREX 2020-2022H1 11%18%CE ETL OEM 2017-2021 024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 484.5 wind 1984 2022 58.69 89.05%6.35%3-5/100-1000/2020 160 10 7 UL&CUL VDE TV CQC 2020 2019 2017-2022H1 单价 应用领域 3-5/PLC 10-20/3-5/2-3/100-1000/宏发股份，14%欧姆龙,13.80%泰科电子,13%松下,9.60%其他,49.90%53616365875255610940%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 yoy 494.5 2012 2019 23%2021 147%36%50%450-10000V 150A 250A 600A/1kA CATL 2019 松下,36%宏发,23%Denso,12%Gigavac,5%其他,24%50 515.1 2022/12/15 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E300693.SZ 54.22 0.55 0.84 1.38 66.39 64.59 39.22 688208.SH 33.68 0.97 0.59 1.15 81.61 57.17 29.20 600212.SH 8.07-0.04 0.01 0.15-104.25 754.21 54.71 300260.SZ 77.11 0.75 1.64 2.34 62.93 47.02 32.93 600885.SH 35.25 1.43 1.27 1.64 52.32 27.69 21.56 Wind wind 52 5.2 53,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%4 54 R3/28F 518041 0755 83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597