深度报告-20230216-华创证券-广晟有色-600259.SH-深度研究报告_国企改革先锋_高速步入稀土头部梯队_33页_2mb (1).pdf

2009 1210 2023 02 16 600259 63 47.20 2020-2021 2022 15%174%66%38%1 2022 12 2021 681 2700 2 22 7 8 400 2024 5700 3 4 40%14000t/a 5594 12.4 2013 TDK 2022 8000t/a 2000 24.68 2.5 2022-2024 2.45/4.90/7.95 PE 2023 43 63 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()16,099 22,582 24,469 26,535(%)58.1%40.3%8.4%8.4%()139 245 490 795(%)173.8%76.1%100.2%62.1%()0.46 0.73 1.46 2.36()102 65 32 20()7.8 7.5 6.1 4.7 2023 2 14 S0360522120003 S0360522120002()33,643.59()32,948.97()158.80()155.52(%)57.89()10.17 12/57.29/29.30(12)-35%-14%6%27%22/02 22/04 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/022022-02-142023-02-14 300 600259 2009 1210 1 2 3 2021 681 2023 2700 1 22 7 8 2024 5700 2 3 12.4 1.4 TDK 2022 8000t/a 2000 1 2022-2024 67000/40%2 23 2700 24 3 8000 2023 2024 2000 4000 2022-2024 2.45/4.90/7.95 PE 2023 43 63 600259 2009 1210 3.6.6.8.11.12 1.12 2.18 3.19.20.21 1.21 2.21 3.21 4.21.23.24 1.24 2.25.26.27.28.29 600259 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.9 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.10 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.11 14.11 15.11 16.11 17 2021.11 18 2021.11 19 2021-2025.12 20 2021-2025.12 21.13 22.13 23 2022.14 24 2022.14 25.16 26.16 27.17 28.17 29.17 30.17 31.18 32 2020-2022.18 33 2020-2022.19 600259 2009 1210 5 34.19 35.20 36.20 37.22 38 t/a.22 39.23 40 2020.24 41 2020.24 42 2010.24 43 2017-2022.25 44 2022.25 45.26 46.26 47 2020.27 48 2020.27 49.27 50.28 600259 2009 1210 6 600259.SH 1953 1983 2002 2009 1 1 2 3 40%14000t/a 2022 2700 8000t/a 1 2020 38.45%2020 1 9 129,372,517 42.87%600259 2009 1210 7 2 2022 3 4 5 2 1 2 3 4 1(Terfenol Alloy)2 X 600259 2009 1210 8 3 4 5 6 7 8()9 10 11 Terfenol-D 12 8.64 2378 3000 13 14 2020-2021 2022 15%174%66%1 10 4 2019 2020 10 600259 2009 1210 9 25%2 634 30.91%3“”2019 85 86.67%175.47%4“”5 6 5 2022 183.75 64.80%2.12 66.36%2022 84.90 41.59%34.23 88.68%7 8 wind wind 600259 2009 1210 10 9 10 wind wind 2021 0.21%1.03%0.52%2021 0.43 232.8%112 34.9%11 12 wind wind 2017-2021 50%2021 94.47%98.79%2020 3888 3527 600259 2009 1210 11 13 14 wind wind 15 16 wind wind 17 2021 18 2021 wind wind 600259 2009 1210 12 1 2 3 3 40%2022-2024 2022 2700 2023 2024 55%3000/8 14000t/a 5594 4 2022 8000t/a 2000 24.68 2.5 19 2021-2025 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E+12972 12972 12972 12972 12972 0 0 0 111400 111400 64500 64500 64500 64500 64500 2782 2782 2782 2782 2782 20 2021-2025 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 531 1300 2200 2200 2200 150 300 500 500 500 0 0 0 3000 3000 627.9 1470 2480 4130 4130 0 0 0 15.8 0 0 0 0 2000 4000 8000 1 1 8 9 600259 2009 1210 13 21(ppm)57 La Lanthanum(FCC)39 58 Ce Cerium(FCC)66.5 59 Pr Praseodymium 9.2 60 Nd Neodymium 41.5 61 Pm Promethium 1 10-153 62 Sm Samarium 7.05 63 Eu Europium 2 64 Gd Gadolinium X 6.2 65 Tb Terbium 1.2 66 Dy Dysprosium 5.2 67 Ho Holmium 1.3 68 Er Erbium 3.5 69 Tm Thulium X 0.52 70 Yb Ytterbium 3.2 71 Lu Lutetium 0.8 21 Sc Scandium()22 39 Y Yttrium(YAG)YBCO(YIG)33 17?250 50 60 10 22()75%600259 2009 1210 14 61.4%38.6%(5%)(3%)()SMM USGS 2022 1.3 4400 33.8%2022 70%90%57 50 44%38%80%23 2022 24 2022 USGS USGS 20 50 15 50,70.0%,14.3%,4.0%,6.0%,2.4%,0.3%,1.0%,0.9%,1.4%,1.8%,16.2%,5.3%,3.2%,33.8%,39.7%600259 2009 1210 15 2015 27(REO)2 90 2 3 12.4 2022 2700 14%2020 2023 1 90%1983 2008 3 25 2008 76 2011 5 4 201116 10.0864km2 2020 2034 10 23 1.1 0.173%2022 600259 2009 1210 16 25 26 1000 REO 18km C4400002009045120010955 11/0.281km2 200876 2010 4 13 2010502 2010 8 23 2010197 122b 332+333 5871.46kt REO 5481.04t 6.89m 0.093%2011 5 4 201115 2.3185km2 556m 160m 22 2021 2168.46 0.093%150 2025 6 3 600259 2009 1210 17 27 28 2022 12 2021 681 2700 2022 2 2022 7 10 55%7 8 2047 5 12+17152 2894.4 7483.8 6773.6 11.14 8 400 29 30 600259 2009 1210 18 1.72 58%18%1.7 t/a 92%REO 3000t/a 2024 5700 2 2.1 100%332+333 64054t 0.158%Mo7487.5t Bi8664.8t Cu25287.6t Ga1215.0t 6000t/d 2021 11 2027 9 29 2022 7 12 51%49%31 1 21701.67 51%44289.13 2 20850.63 49%42552.30 2.2 100%1917 2782.44 0.57%15.8 2030 4 20 32 2020-2022 2020A 2021A 2022H1 4221.43 2805.58 764.76 780.24 25.71-299.19 600259 2009 1210 19 2022 2021 1 70%130 60%+300 t/a 500t/d 4000t/d 3 2800 50 8000 7 35 800 1200 1.5 130 2020 4.37 40%2 1 33 2020-2022 2020A 2021A 2022H1 12.35 18.40 11.09 0.58 1.88 2.14 34/1 C4400002009082220034118 2017/2/24 2039/2/24 330/2 C4400002011083210122247 2016/11/15 2021/8/30 8/3 T01120091002035005 2016/4/29 600259 2009 1210 20 35 100%:2021 5 25 5000 2022 1 2.1 5000/15 99.999%36 5000 100%2000 1999 2012 10 3000/75%3000/600259 2009 1210 21(50%)3000/14000/5594 1 0.1%10%-20%2 2015 27(REO)2 90 120 23 12.4 1.4 3 4 2013 TDK 600259 2009 1210 22 2022 2 34,633,619 40.3/13.96 11 8000t/a 2021 12 30 2000 8000t/a 24.68 2.5 37 8000t/a 8000 t/a GB/T 13560-2017 263438 kJ/m3 8751990 kA/m 38 t/a BH max kJ/m3 HcJ kA/m BH max+HcJ t/a 1 S-NdFeB 430/88 N54 406438 875 6266 2000 2 S-NdFeB 360/96 N45 342366 960 5558 1000 3 S-NdFeB 415/104 N50 390422 1035 6266 1500 4 S-NdFeB 400/127 48M 374406 1274 6267 1500 5 S-NdFeB 380/151 45HT 358390 1512 6468 600 6 S-NdFeB 300/159 38SH 287310 1592 5659 600 7 S-NdFeB 360/191 45UH 342366 1911 6770 400 600259 2009 1210 23 8 S-NdFeB 280/199 35UH 263287 1990 5861 400 8000 8000t/a 39 1 S-NdFeB 430/88 TCL 2 S-NdFeB 360/96 3 S-NdFeB 415/104 4 S-NdFeB 400/127 5 S-NdFeB 380/151 6 S-NdFeB 300/159 GE 7 S-NdFeB 360/191 8 S-NdFeB 280/199 8000t/a 2021 2021 12 23 3 2020 600259 2009 1210 24 20%1 10 2021 70/240/1380/40 2020 41 2020 2022 21 50%42 2010 0204060801001202020/1/22020/3/22020/5/22020/7/22020/9/22020/11/22021/1/22021/3/22021/5/22021/7/22021/9/22021/11/22022/1/22022/3/22022/5/22022/7/22022/9/22022/11/2/0500001000001500002000002500002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 600259 2009 1210 25 2015-2019 40%MP 43 2017-2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 16800 20364 22017 23253 28744 37004 21.20%8.10%5.60%23.60%22.32%42%42%41%41%46%51%2760 2990 3220 3450 3680 3700 13500 13750 14500 14750 15500 18000 0 2350 3981 5924 6000 6000 1552 3770 5049 5015 4218 2975 5400 5580 5610 4860 5400 5400 40012 48805 54377 57252 63543 73080 22%11.40%5.30%11.00%15.00%2022 2700 14%44 2022 1 49200 13010 58499 2 141650 128934 3 3440 3963 4 2700 10604 3610 190850 19150 202000 210000 202000 2 2005 2006 2016 600259 2009 1210 26 2021 12 23 2022 10 31 2021 21.3 90%TDK V AC 2020-2022 3 2020 45 21 22 23 24 25 1 20000 22000 3000 3000 51000 2 15000 23000 26000 38000 40000 3 15000 19000 21000 34000 34000 4 16000 24000 24000 3000 32000 2020 50%46 1 41.5%1000 5000 2 10%0 20000 600259 2009 1210 27 3 100%12000 17000 4 100%2000 8000 40%2018 40%47 2020 48 2020 20%2.5-3.5 2020 22 3 2020 66 2022-2023 3%2 49 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 221 312 650 1082 1400 1800 2300 kg 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.8 1.1 2.3 3.8 4.9 6.3 8.1 2577 2531 2556 2684 2711 2738 2765 EPS 45%50%55%65%70%75%80%kg 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25,42%,7%,5%,5%,7%,9%,8%,12%,5%,20%,15%,15%,14%,13%,13%,5%,5%600259 2009 1210 28 EPS 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.44 0.47 0.51 0.55 GW 26.8 54.4 47.6 45.0 54.0 64.8 77.8 39%39%39%30%29%28%27%kg 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 15062 14490 14490 14490 14490 14490 14490 46%57%85%90%95%97%99%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%kg 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.35 0.45 0.74 0.85 0.96 1.05 1.15 2.23 3.53 4.83 6.13 7.57 9.30 11.41%58.3%36.6%27.1%23.4%22.8%22.7%wind EVtank EV sales 20kg 2025 2.1 40 50g-100g 2-4kg 1 2022-2024 67000/40%2 23 2700 24 3 8000 2023 2024 2000 4000 2022-2024 2.45/4.90/7.95 PE 2023 43 63 50 PE EPS 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 600010.SH 2.06 44 1019 31 23 0.06 0.00 0.07 0.09 600259 2009 1210 29 600392.SH 16.37 32 16 16 13 0.61 1.02 0.99 1.24 000831.SZ 42.08 196 93 82 70 0.20 0.45 0.51 0.60 43 600259.SH 47.2 101 64 32 20 0.46 0.73 1.46 2.36 wind EPS PE wind 2 14 600259 2009 1210 30 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,567 2,170 5,042 9,034 16,099 22,582 24,469 26,535 60 245 156 148 15,538 21,701 23,365 24,986 112 782 701 579 41 111 120 119 131 217 351 318 34 47 51 55 1,946 1,865 1,124 1,203 166 167 174 175 0 0 0 0 43 61 71 77 177 692 549 522 83 81 70 70 3,993 5,971 7,923 11,804 10 10 10 10 2 2 2 2-44-160-15-15 682 682 682 682 0 0 0 0 298 469 824 1,187 78 120 120 120 226 626 951 1,051 10 10 10 10 414 372 335 302 246 394 743 1,178 197 193 188 183 2 2 3 2 1,819 2,344 2,982 3,407 47 47 47 47 5,812 8,315 10,905 15,211 201 349 699 1,133 809 819 829 839 40 71 142 230 676 1,010 1,105 1,060 161 278 557 903 93 628 482 378 22 33 67 108 0 0 0 0 139 245 490 795 319 452 489 531 NOPLAT 227 343 613 959 127 127 127 127 EPS()0.46 0.73 1.46 2.36 110 110 110 110 167 520 1,732 4,410 2,301 3,666 4,874 7,455 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 1,374 2,197 3,021 3,844 0 0 0 0 58.1%40.3%8.4%8.4%169 169 169 169 EBIT 139.5%51.2%78.6%56.4%1,543 2,366 3,190 4,013 173.8%76.1%100.2%62.1%3,844 6,032 8,064 11,468 1,822 2,104 2,595 3,389 3.5%3.9%4.5%5.8%146 179 246 354 1.0%1.2%2.3%3.4%1,968 2,283 2,841 3,743 ROE 7.1%10.7%17.3%21.2%5,812 8,315 10,905 15,211 ROIC 8.6%8.9%10.3%10.1%66.1%69.1%61.1%49.4%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 125.1%144.3%145.4%132.6%534-31 1,512 980 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 298 434 712 1,086 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.4-254 81 741-79 97-780 50 178 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.7 441 869-52-149 3 7 11 9-48-635 60-56 2 6 9 6-173-600-725-540 42 32 23 17-366-605-728-542()-65 0 0 0 0.46 0.73 1.46 2.36 258 5 3 2 1.59-0.09 4.49 2.91-32 1,234 2,085 3,552 5.42 6.25 7.71 10.07 468 834 834 834-91-91-80-80 P/E 102 65 32 20 0 0 0 0 P/B 8 8 6 5-409 491 1,331 2,798 EV/EBITDA 71 48 28 18 600259 2009 1210 31 6 2 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 7 Wind 2022 2 2022 600259 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 600259 2009 1210 33(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522